Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Managing real exchange rate for economic growth: Empirical evidences from developing countries

Abstract

This article analyses macroeconomic policies capable of influencing the long-run real exchange rate (RER). In this vein, it identifies economic policy tools that can devalue RER, covering a theoretical issue neglected by the economic literature, which argues that competitive exchange rate enhances growth. After discussing the “Trilemma,” we identify those variables that could affect RER without constraining monetary policy or exchange rate regime choice. In what follows, we model the probability of achieving an undervalued (small or large) RER for a sample of 14 developing countries from 1980 to 2010 (30?years) by applying econometric techniques for discrete choice and censored data. Afterwards, we compare the results for Latin American nations with Asian ones. They suggest that competitive exchange rate requires different approaches depending on the region. Moreover, Latin American countries need to take on additional policies so that interventions in the foreign exchange market become effective.     

Beliefs about Exchange‐Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria

Abstract

Currency pegs seldom achieve full credibility even after delivering low inflation and a stable exchange rate for many years. We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to investigate the origins of incomplete credibility. We show that the limitations imposed by the currency board on output stabilization policies are a major source of concern. Many people view the financial stabilization policies as a reason for high unemployment and therefore as unsustainable. Another important factor for low credibility is the concern over potential international shocks. Conversely, past instability does not seem to translate strongly into expectations of future instability.     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

International review of ecodesign programs for products and lessons learned for China

ABSTRACT

Since the 1980s, ecodesign has emerged as a new guiding principle for integrating environmental aspects into product design and development, with the aim of reducing adverse environmental life-cycle impacts. For China, the concept of ecodesign is becoming important in advancing Chinese industrial development while mitigating the rise in national energy consumption and emissions. We reviewed 28 existing ecodesign labels and supporting programs adopted globally to identify lessons learned and best practices for the development of potential ecodesign labeling programs in China. We find that systematic framework and process and inclusion of various stakeholders in developing criteria, certification requirements and supporting policies in the form of green procurement, small local pilot subsidies, and active outreach and communication are key success factors of international programs. Based on international experiences and by leveraging existing Chinese frameworks for labeling and policies, China has an opportunity to lead in developing broader environmental criteria for a new ecodesign labeling program.     

TRADE‐OFFS BETWEEN CIVIL LIBERTIES AND NATIONAL SECURITY: A DISCRETE CHOICE EXPERIMENT

We explore differences in perception of national security policies between self‐identified liberals, moderates, and conservatives from a national sample of U.S. adults. Using a discrete choice experiment, we also quantify each group's willingness to trade off select policies in exchange for reduced risk of a 9/11‐style terrorist attack. Relative to other groups, liberals are more likely to view such policies as ineffective and susceptible to government abuse. They also perceive a lower threat of terrorism. All groups are willing to make trade‐offs between civil liberties and risk of a terrorist attack. However, loss of civil liberties affects liberals more than conservatives. (JEL D61, H41, H56)     

Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Determinants of private health insurance coverage among Mexican American men 2010–2013

Abstract

Background: Private health insurance (PHI) represents the largest source of insurance for Americans. Hispanic Americans have one of the lowest rates of PHI coverage. The largest group in the US Hispanic population are Mexican Americans; they account for about two in every three Hispanics. One in every three Mexican Americans aged 64 years and under did not have health insurance coverage. Mexican Americans have the most unfavorable health insurance coverage of any population group in the nation.

Objectives: The objective is to determine the factors associated with the gap in PHI coverage between Mexican American and non-Hispanic American men.

Methods: This study used the National Health Interview Surveys (2010–2013) as the sample. A non-linear Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was run, estimating the explained and unexplained gap in PHI coverage between the groups. Several robustness tests of the model were also included.

Results: This study estimates that 44.4% of employed Mexican American men are covered by PHI compared to 79.5% of non-Hispanic American men. Nearly 60% of employed Mexican American men were found to be foreign born, 35% have an educational attainment less than a high school degree, and 40% are likely to have language barriers. Decomposition results show that income, low educational attainment, being foreign-born, and language barriers diminished the probability of private health insurance coverage for Mexican Americans, and that 10% of the gap is unexplained.

Conclusions: Most of the difference in the PHI rate between Mexican American men and non-Hispanic men is explained by observable differences in group characteristics: education, language, and immigration status. About 10% of the difference can be attributed to discrimination under the traditional interpretation of an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The PHI rate gap is large and persistent for Mexican American men.     

Openness,growth convergence and China’s development prospects

ABSTRACT

This paper examines China’s long-term growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth, based on cross-country productivity convergence and China’s featured demographic evolution. In a nonlinear open economy catch-up growth model, per capital GDP growth of the followers depend on that of the leading economy and time varying convergence of the relative per capita GDP. Comparable open economies of China are identified in terms of relative per capita GDP and the historical data of which are used to project China’s trajectory of productivity convergence and then the growth of per capita GDP. Projection shows China’s future GDP growth will gradually descend from 6.6–6.7% (2016–2020) to 2.6–2.7% (2046–2050) in low variant. Predictions under medium and high variants are provided as well. The importance of further opening-up domestic markets, elimination of birth control policies and accumulation of human capital in the process of promoting urbanization are highlighted and have significant implications for the economic restructuring and transformation of China.

Abbreviations: ICRG: International Country Risk Guide; IMF: International Monetary Fund     

The framework of ‘local productive and innovation systems’ and its influence on STI policy in Brazil

ABSTRACT

Throughout its twenty years of existence, a Brazilian research network, RedeSist, has developed and improved the theoretical and methodological framework of National Systems of Innovation. The first aim of this article is to present RedeSist’s focusing device of Local Innovation and Production Systems (LIPS), a combination of the Systems of Innovation framework with the contributions of the Latin American Structuralist Approach and to explain the main tools devised to capture collective and systemic processes of production and innovation, taking into account that every LIPS is inserted in specific, local, regional, national and global systems. The second objective is to discuss the Brazilian experience in designing and implementing LIPS policies as part of its industrial and innovation policies. The concluding remarks attempt at recuperating the most important arguments of the discussion and at highlighting the advantages of creating and using contextualized and systemic theories, concepts, indicators and policy models.     

Knowledge Disparity and Regional Inequality in Post-reform China

This article investigates China's knowledge disparity and its association with economic inequality, an issue little attended in Chinese regional studies. It focuses on the 1990s, the period when the economic reform and open door policy started to have their full impact on all aspects of social and economic development. The article reveals that knowledge advancement is uneven in China, with a regional pattern similar to economic inequality but also unique in several ways. The association between knowledge disparity and economic inequality is found not to be as strong as one would expect. The implications of the findings in terms of the impact of reform policies are discussed.     

Financial intermediation and entry-deterrence

Summary. In this paper, we analyze the interaction between an incumbent's financial contract with a bank and its product market decisions in the face of a threat of entry, in a dynamic model with asymmetric information. The main results of the paper are: there exists a separating equilibrium with no limit pricing; the low-cost incumbent repays more to the bank in the first period due to the threat of entry; and there are parameter values for which the bank makes more profits with the threat of entry than without. Received: July 19, 2002; revised version: December 4, 2002 Correspondence to: N. Jain     

Does government paternalistic care promote entrepreneurship in China? Evidence from the China Employer-Employee Survey

ABSTRACT

This article examines whether government paternalistic care exerts positive effects on entrepreneurship in China, and the channels through which paternalistic care affects entrepreneurship, using data from the 2015 baseline of the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES). The data suggests that over 70% of manufacturing firms received at least one type of government paternalistic care, though the distributions are different depending on the firm’s size, ownership, industry, firm and entrepreneur’s age. The empirical analysis indicates that government paternalistic care negatively affects entrepreneurship by diminishing innovation capability. Human capital and imported intermediate goods should be the driving forces for a firm’s development, but government paternalistic care has a counterproductive effect on those two factors, thereby impeding entrepreneurship. The results show that those good intentions have gone awry. The government should gradually terminate its paternalistic policies for firms, and firms need to promote their own solid innovation capability.

Abbreviations: CEES: China Employer-Employee Survey SOE: State-owned enterprise     

From world factory to world investor: the new way of China integrating into the world

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that outward direct investment (ODI) is replacing international trade as the new way China integrates into the world. Based on two complementary datasets, we document the pattern of Chinese ODI. We argue that the rapid growth of China’s ODI is the result of strong economic development, increasing domestic constraints, and supportive government policies. Compared with trade integration, investment integration involves China more deeply in global business. As a new global investor, China’s ODI in the future is full of opportunities, risks, and challenges. The Chinese government should improve bureaucracy coordination and participate more in designing and maintaining international rules to protect ODI interests.     

Boosting the spread of new technologies: an integrative propositional analysis of diffusion policies

ABSTRACT

Although many studies have recognised the importance of defining specific public policies to encourage technology diffusion, many authors fail to provide a clear view about either the policies that affect the diffusion of technologies or the effect of the different political instruments. Adopting a content analysis of papers that directly or indirectly refer to the diffusion of a new technology, this study applies the integrative propositional analysis (IPA) methodology to: (a) identify the repertoire of the different diffusion policies identified by previous studies; (b) classify these policies according to the type of instruments that they use; (c) analyse the impact of each policy on the different adoption factors that may inhibit or foster the diffusion of a new technology; and (d) evaluate the scope of each type of policy in terms of the number of affected adoption factors.     

Industrial Policy—An Institutional Economic Framework for Assessment

Abstract:

In this article we suggest an institutional economic approach to classifying government policies, thus offering suggestions to improve the expected outcomes of government policy as well. We elaborate the argument for industrial policy-government policy to directly influence investment and resource allocation decisions by private companies. By adopting dimensions for industries that are stable over time, we can suggest which policies are suitable for which industries.     

The persistent institutional effect of liberal colonialism: evidence from China’s financial policies

ABSTRACT

The effect of liberal colonialism on the allocation of capital persists to this day. We exploit the colonial history of China during 1896-1911 with qualitative evidence to measure liberal colonialism. We document that liberal colonialism promotes the subsequent efficiency of financial policies on the capital allocation in 2004 through the quality of economic institutions.     

Environmental and Societal Attitudes to Working Hours in Gendered Perspective: Patterns,Preferences and Policy

ABSTRACT

This article begins from the premise that environmental degradation is a profound and present threat and that work time reduction–with an associated reduction in consumption–is one of a number of strategies that can be adopted to combat it. As a precursor to looking at how such policies can be supported, our research questions whether environmental attitudes are congruent with work time patterns and preferences. Our initial hypothesis was that those who care most for the environment would work fewer hours than those who exhibit lower levels of environmental concern, and prefer to do so. However, contra our expectations, our empirical analysis of the European Social Survey shows that those who state they care most about the environment are more likely to work longer hours, and prefer to do so. Overall, men tend to be less concerned about the environment, and work longer. Caring responsibilities, in contrast, fall disproportionately on women. We argue that this reflects traditional gender roles that are a residual from the social norm of the male breadwinner model. Given work time reduction as an environmental policy, the task is to influence preferences and ‘green’ human behaviour, especially among men.     

Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

ABSTRACT

Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.     

Low-cost innovation and technology-driven innovation in China’s machinery industry

ABSTRACT

The political concept of indigenous innovation in China sets out a guiding principle for the country’s major transformation towards becoming an innovation nation. However, firms’ innovation strategies and capabilities in middle-income countries are usually heterogeneous, making a uniform response to this concept at the company level highly unlikely. The paper’s empirical contribution is based on analysing survey data on technologically advanced machinery firms in China. It uses a multinomial model approach to establish which drivers of innovation go hand-in-hand with the different innovation strategies. This paper identifies different innovation strategies and forms of innovation that co-emerge as part of this transformation, leading to four firm groups: low-cost producers, technology-oriented producers, user-oriented innovators and technology-oriented innovators. It thus contributes to a more differentiated view of the effects of China’s innovation-focused transformation. We find that R&D investments, governmental R&D support and scientific collaborations are key factors to distinguish between the above-mentioned groups.