我国商业银行房地产市场存在主要风险及防范对策研究

伴随着中国经济的飞速发展,国内房地产市场经历了爆炸式发展时期,而国外房地产泡沫破灭的教训使各方对房地产的“超速”发展产生了担忧.更为重要的是,国内直接融资市场发展缓慢,房地产市场60%以上的开发资金都来源于银行贷款的支持.商业银行在分享房地产发展带来巨额回报的同时也积聚了越来越大的风险,一旦房地产泡沫破灭就可能会引发银行信用危机、清偿能力危机等,甚至导致整个金融系统动荡.本文从我国商业银行房地产信贷现状着手,探析房地产信贷风险的主要成因,并提出了有效的规避及防范风险的对策.     

技术公司缩减预测

根据欧华律师事务所发布的调查预测,技术公司的收入将减少66％,大约50％的风险资本家相信本次金融危机比2000年的互联网泡沫破灭更具危害性。     

从博弈论视角看商业银行在房地产业贷款中的风险

我国目前的房地产价格的持续走高已经与消费能力的提高渐渐脱节,银行信贷巨资的支持是不少城市出现这股热潮的重要原因.一方面银行的信贷巨资支撑了我国房地产市场的非理性繁荣,另一方面商业银行在房地产泡沫中的风险也在不断集聚.在房地产开发企业向商业银行申请贷款时,由于信息的不对称而产生了两者之间的不完全信息静态博弈.     

商业银行在房地产泡沫凝聚阶段的信贷策略研究

房地产泡沫和商业银行资本流动之间存在密切的关系。房地产价格和商业银行信贷之间会形成互相推动的关系,即房地产价格上涨会促使商业银行更加愿意将资金投入这一领域,而投入资金规模的增加又会进一步促进房地产价格的上涨。如任之不断循环而不加以管理,房地产泡沫将逐渐积累,而相应的风险将会大量向商业银行信贷领域集中。国家施行的房地产调控政策往往仅是技术性的调控,     

同业业务治理是楼市泡沫破灭催命符

国内金融体系最大风险有三：影子银行泛滥、地方政府融资平台违约、楼市泡沫破灭。而这三者统统都与国内银行问同业市场有关。这三大风险很大程度上都是与国内同业市场所谓的金融创新有关。因此,对国内同业业务的治理就有可能成为国内楼市泡沫破灭的催命符。     

商业银行信用集中风险管理策略研究

商业银行作为金融交易的主要中介,其运营中承担着各种类型的风险,而信用集中风险尤为突出.为此,本文针对我国部分商业银行信用风险管理具体现状及能力并根据集中风险的三个类别将信用集中风险的管理分成三个阶段,即名称集中风险、部门集中风险和传染集中风险综合考虑的积极信贷组合管理思想,为商业银行信用集中风险管理提供有效策略.     

房价走势:未来会更糟吗

泡沫破灭的风险正在不断积聚,房价泡沫的破裂对全球经济复苏绝对不是一个好消息     

我国房地产市场的现实选择——基于对日本房地产泡沫事件的探讨

房地产泡沫的破灭不仅造成金融危机,而且影响国民经济长期的发展,所以研究我国房地产泡沫的问题具有理论和现实意义.本文通过对日本房地产泡沫原因深入的剖析和对影响我国房地产泡沫因素的比较,认为我国目前整体存在泡沫风险,并且局部地区已出现泡沫.通过对我国房地产泡沫问题的探讨,借鉴日本房地产泡沫的教训,可以为进一步防范我国房地产...     

我国股市的泡沫效应及持续性研究

从长远看，股市泡沫终究会破灭；但从短期来看，支持股市泡沫持续的因素很多，目前还难以预料股市泡沫破灭的时问。研究表明，股市泡沫对我国资本市场的发展是不利的，而目前的各种客观因素给股市泡沫的维持提供了条件。为此，监管部门要对股市泡沫破灭的负面效应有一个客观的评估，不能单纯为了市场的平稳、为了社会稳定而牺牲效率。     

商品住宅贷款:银行并不存在严重坏账风险

针对中国房地产市场存在泡沫且将要破灭，从而会引发金融危机的观点，本文通过分析认为，我国商业银行的贷款占商品住宅开发商资金来源比重不高且一直稳定，住房按揭贷款质量较高，因此，银行的商品住宅贷款并不存在严重的坏账风险，房地产金融总体而言是安全的。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.