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1.
A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems.  相似文献   

2.
One of the major attributes determining system reliability, the one that has received the most thorough and systematic study for many years, is system survival function. A “survival function” is a mathematical formula relating the probability of satisfactory performance of a system to time. Here, probability of satisfactory performance is synonymous with probability of nonfailure or probability of survival of a performing system.In breakthrough analysis of complex technological systems, the situation is somewhat similar but opposite to the above system reliability case. For breakthrough forecasting, the problem is to determine the probability of occurrence of success of a nonperforming system. Thus this paper presents a quantitative methodology for forecasting technological breakthroughs using a new concept of “attainability function,” derived in a similar fashion as the “reliability function.”  相似文献   

3.
4.
Too much has been written about forecasting trends via “envelope curves.” To plot a straight line on log-paper is a no-brainer. The special phenomenology of phase changes, catastrophes, or “crashes,” and their key evolutionary role is the subject of this article. There is no unique way of forecasting such events, but one indicator is an apparent inconsistency between two or more extrapolations with each other. Alternatively, a catastrophe may be signalled when a trend extrapolation encounters a natural limit. A number of possible discontinuity scenarios are sketched, although overall, the article laments the lack of theorization in forecasting disconuities.  相似文献   

5.
It is often argued that corporate managers tend to waste “free cash flow”. While the standard Berle-Means approach to corporate agency problems suggests that this behavior should be restricted to firms with atomistic shareholders, it is argued here that the effect of concentrated share ownership on the decision to disgorge “free cash flow” is ambiguous because concentrated ownership can blunt the disciplinary effect of a hostile takeover threat. The decision to pay out free cash flow in a sample of large U.S. corporations is found to be unrelated to the size of managerial, family or institutional blockholdings. This suggests that large shareholders are of no use in resolving the free cash flow problem, or that the importance of free cash flow as a source of agency problems has been greatly exaggerated.  相似文献   

6.
This paper explores how Knightian uncertainty affects dynamic properties in an economic growth model. The decision-making theory employed in the analysis is the theory of expected utility under a non-additive probability measure, i.e., the Choquet expected utility model of preference. We apply this decision-making theory to an overlapping generations model where producers face “uncertainty” in their technologies. When the producer is averse to uncertainty, the firm's profit function may not be differentiable. Therefore, the firm's decision to invest and hire labor becomes rigid for a certain measurable range of real interest rates. In dynamic equilibrium, the existence of firm-level rigidity causes discontinuity in the wage function; this makes multiple equilibria the more likely outcomes under the log utility and Cobb–Douglas production functions. In this paper, we show that even if aversion to uncertainty is small, the “poverty trap” can arise for a wide range of parameter values.  相似文献   

7.
This article briefly reviews the literature on business reengineering (BR), analyzes critical success factors (CSFs) for BR, develops a BR-CSFs model, empirically tests the model on Korean firms, and investigates the impact of BR on corporate performance in Korea. Many Korean firms are attempting to transform from Japanese- to American-style business management. As part of this process, BR has gained substantial critical mass as the first widely accepted American-born management methodology accepted in Korea. While Western-based BR methodologies provide general procedures and techniques the CSFs listed in this research focus on the key factors that Korean firms generally confront. In the present research, 20 CSFs, taken from a literature review were divided into four categories: strategic, organizational, methodological, and technological/educational. A survey was developed to assess the firm-specific importance and development of each of these CSFs. Survey responses from 162 Korean corporations indicate a positive association between the designated CSFs and corporate performance. Korean BR team leaders and CEOs/COOS rate “strategic” and “methodological” CSFs as most important while “organizational” and “technological/educational” CSFs are considered less important, a rank ordering challenged by the authors.  相似文献   

8.
Structural modeling has been under study in recent years as a method for dealing with complex societal problems, and is growing in acceptance as a tool for understanding complex social phenomena. Structural models demonstrate the interactions of the separate elements of a system and their combined overall effect. Thus, the nature of the problem for which this method of analysis is appropriate is different from complex problems of the traditional disciplines which lend themselves to reductionist approaches. This is because complex policy problems of society cannot be “solved” with precise analysis. Kenneth Boulding suggests that there are two ways to cope with a complex policy problem, either to “slice” the problem into partial equilibrium sections or “squeeze” it by aggregating numerous variables into a single index or macho variable. Structural modeling is an approach which comes under the general strategy of squeezing the problem and is promising because of the ability to include a range of macro variables which provide insights about social change. The articles in this issue treat several interesting aspects of this approach. In this article we wish to recall for consideration a central purpose for developing such methods. We have taken a historical approach to indicate some of the roots of the concern for the effect of technological process on social change. Within this context, we discuss the nature of the contributions made by the articles in this issue and what promise the methods offer to addressing the historical concern.  相似文献   

9.
A.  B.  K.  V.  A.  P.  I.  S.  E. 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2007,74(7):980-1029
We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.  相似文献   

10.
Influence and inefficiency in the internal capital market   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
I model inefficient resource allocations in M-form organizations due to influence activities by division managers that skew capital budgets in their favor. Corporate headquarters receives two types of signals about investment opportunities: private signals that can be distorted by managers, and public signals that are undistorted but noisy. Headquarters faces a tradeoff between the cost of attaining an accurate private signal and the value of the information the signal provides. In contrast to existing models of “socialism” in internal capital markets, I show that investment sensitivity to Tobin's Q is higher than first-best in firms where division managers hold equity (a result consistent with evidence presented in Scharfstein, 1998). When managers face high private costs from distorting information (equity holdings), headquarters may commit to investment contracts that place “too little” weight on private signals and “too much” weight on public signals (i.e. Q). This result has implications for managers in the design of capital budgeting processes and incentive compensation systems.  相似文献   

11.
The increasingly turbulent and unstable international environment requires new approaches to development planning. Current methods need to be reformulated, perhaps by employing an “institutional approach.” Three possible directions are discussed: the need to enlarge the scope of anticipatory decisions covered by the planning process; the need to reinterpret and redefine the concept of the planning horizon, transcending the limitations of the distinctions between short-, medium-, and long-term planning; and the imperative of dispersing planning capabilities throughout society.  相似文献   

12.
This study points out major errors in an article published in this journal by Nitta and Yoda [1] titled, “Challenging the Human Crisis: ‘The Trilemma.’” Nitta and Yoda forecast a nuclear future based on assumptions of a high energy demand, scarce oil reserves, and a low potential of renewable energy sources. The validity of these assumptions is analyzed, and they are found inaccurate. Nitta and Yoda also use different forecasting techniques for different technologies that encourage the prospects of nuclear power and discourage the future of solar energy. No arguments are provided for the different choices of forecasting methods. When discussing future alternatives, the approach taken is of vital importance, because the method itself often affects the result.  相似文献   

13.
The concept of inquiry systems as originally formulated by Churchman is an exceedingly powerful one. Each inquiry system can be construed as an archetypal or generic kind of model structure that applies generally throughout all of the sciences. Recent development in the logic of argumentation and symbolic logic show how, paradoxically enough, the model structure of each inquiry system can itself be modeled in terms of the first-order predicate calculus. The result is a “model of models.” More important and more fundamental still, the effort shows the tremendous assumptions that must be bought if one is to warrant belief in any particular inquiry model.  相似文献   

14.
The increasing importance of technology in the application world has imposed high demand on the research community for insightful and useful principles about “management of technological innovation” (MTI). This paper examines the academic legacy in terms of conceptual categories, causal relationships and taxonomy of relevant systems, and asserts from a system perspective that MTI as an applied science is still in its infancy.Based on methodological argument, this paper warns of the danger of hasty compromise of strategically important topics to “popular” definition of “researchability,” and suggests several research guidelines and approaches for this young interdisciplinary discipline:
1. (1)To explore new frontiers, use “proximate variables,” consider contextual factors and causation in broad terms, conceptualize “independently,” and pay more attention to case study method.
2. (2)To understand driving forces, be aware of practice, and focus on internal dynamics.
3. (3)To transcend complexity, adopt a hierarchical structure perspective and state-and-flow concept, and condense findings into configurations.
Finally, this paper urges the formation of an overall research strategy to accelerate the accumulation of MTI grounded knowledge.  相似文献   

15.
We study a small open economy with two sectors and two factors of production. In one of the sectors, external economies of scale are generated through the industry-level capital input. This leads to a divergence between private and social production possibility frontiers as well as to multiple equilibria. The equilibrium selection problem that arises is solved by agents who follow a simple trial-and-error learning rule. The growth path of the economy as agents learn lies below the production possibility frontier and may display cyclical transitional dynamics. We also show that coordination problems which may prevent the economy from attaining the “good” equilibrium may be alleviated by the temporary use of policy instruments that shape the allocation of resources.  相似文献   

16.
This paper develops a simple sequential-move game to characterize the endogeneity of third-party intervention in conflict. We show how a third party's “intervention technology” interacts with the canonical “conflict technologies” of two rival parties in affecting the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium outcome. From the perspective of deterrence strategy, we find that it is more costly for a third party to support an ally to deter a challenger from attacking (i.e., to maintain peace or acquiescence), as compared to the alternative case when the third party supports the ally to gain a disputed territory by attacking (i.e., to create war), ceteris paribus. However, an optimally intervening third party can be either “peace-making”, “peace-breaking”, or neither depending on the characteristics of the conflict and the stakes the third party holds with each of the rival parties.  相似文献   

17.
North American “future studies” and the French concept of “prospective” have been integrated to provide the basis for an attempted “Canadian Synthesis” in the approach developed by the Montreal-based think-tank, the Gamma Institute. In this paper the founding president of Gamma outlines the four stages of the approach in a conceptual framework entitled the “Chronospace” and illustrates its applicability by referring to some of Gamma's projects in the last 12 years.  相似文献   

18.
Standard explanations of the seeming instability of the money demand in the post-1973 period usually link to stories about financial innovation and deregulation. I propose an alternative hypothesis: Much of the seeming instability occurs because of shifts in monetary policy, either explicit or implicit, in an environment where the Federal Reserve controls a more “exogenous” money stock. My econometric analysis modifies existing methods for estimating markets in disequilibrium and incorporates newly developed cointegration and error-correction modeling. My findings provide support for the buffer-stock interpretation of the money market.  相似文献   

19.
The idea of a dual-market structure in the early stages of a product's life cycle has become one of the most widely accepted ideas among new product marketing practitioners in the past decade. Concepts such as “Early Market/Main Market” and “Visionaries/Pragmatists” have entered the lexicon of high-tech executives to express the notion that the market for new products is composed of early and main markets with a discontinuity in the diffusion process in between them. Moreover, these concepts have been at least partially tested and verified in the marketing academic literature in the past few years.We extend this branch of research by investigating the timing issues in dual-market cases. We define Change-of-Dominance Time (CD-Time) as the number of years it takes main market adopters to outnumber early market adopters. We empirically investigate this timing issue on a comprehensive data set of new product sales in the consumer electronics industry. We find that regarding explanatory determinants of CD-Time, external influence, such as advertising, to the early market is the most important explanatory variable.We examine the relationship between CD-Time and other early product life cycle phenomena: Takeoff, Saddle, and Rogers' size of adopter categories. We found relatively high correlations between these phenomena and CD-Time.The answer to the question “When does the majority become a majority?” is indeed “at 16%”! In a dual-market setting, the average time at which the main market outnumbers the early market is when 16% of the market has already adopted the product. In terms of time, in 75% of the cases the majority becomes a majority in 5 to 10 years.  相似文献   

20.
There is increasing evidence that public organizations dedicated exclusively to research and development (R&D) in agribusiness need systematic management tools to incorporate the uncertainties and complexities of technological and nontechnological factors of external environments in its long-term strategic plans. The major issues are: “What will be the agribusiness science and technology (S&T) needs be in the future?” “How to prepare in order to meet these needs?” Both Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa), attached to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have developed a comprehensive strategic and operational planning process in order to answer these key questions in the 1990s. The main objective of this article is to present a comparative and preliminary analysis of concepts, methodologies, and processes utilized, and some results obtained by these public organizations.  相似文献   

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