Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points

This paper presents a logit model that accurately forecasts business-cycle turning points with a lead of one-quarter. The sample period consists of an initialization subset (1959:Q3–1975:Q4), and a subset for out-of-sample forecast evaluation (1976:Q1–2005:Q4). In contrast with the record of disappointing results in the literature, the model correctly forecasts all turning points in the test subset without forecasting recessions that did not occur.      

Enhancing a Delphi study on family-focused prevention

This article discusses how additional inquiries can enhance Delphi findings. We argue that inquiries aimed at supporting and refining Delphi findings is both theoretically and practically meaningful. We illustrate our argument on the basis of a framework for family-focused prevention that was developed through a Delphi study. The results of individual and group interviews conducted as a follow-up to the implementation of the framework provided us with effective ways to support and refine it. We draw the conclusion that adequate follow-up inquiries can enhance Delphi findings, from theoretical and application perspectives.     

Strategic framework for commercialisation of fly ash innovations

Numerous innovative applications have been developed to utilise large quantity of fly ash generated at coal fired thermal power plants (TPPs) worldwide. However, this requires power plants to undertake the role of third-party innovation intermediaries, that is, commercialising technological innovations developed by others. As commercialising an innovation requires considerable resources, a well-considered selection and promotion are desired. The paper presents a strategic framework for commercialisation of fly ash innovations. Explanation for step-by-step implementation and generic pointers for strategy formulation for typical problems are suggested. The proposed framework is expected to assist coal-fired TPPs in formulating strategies to commercialise innovative utilisation of fly ash. The study contributes to scarcely addressed aspects of an open innovation paradigm, that is, challenges faced by third-party intermediaries.     

A theory of innovation for process-based innovations such as nanotechnology

Many see Nanotechnology as the technology that will underlie the next Schumpeterian wave creating new opportunities for wealth and job creation. Further it is a process based or materials technology. Yet all currently used models of innovation are based on assembled products or service products and these simply do not recognize the differences in materials products nor the “enabling” nature of Nanotechnologies. If nanotechnology is poised to become the economic engine of this millennium and if current models of innovation, which are utilized, by policy makers and firm based strategist alike are based on technology product paradigms that are dissimilar to the realities of nanotechnology and other process-based technologies then there is cause for concern.Here the authors provide a model and supporting cases demonstrating a new process or materials based innovation model that is based on the tight coupling between product and process innovation of not only Nanotechnology-based products but other process-based products. This is an important finding, because it identifies and remedies a gap in the literature associated with earlier process and product innovation models. For process-based products like materials, food, chemicals and nanotechnologies any change to the manufacturing processes results in significant changes in end product features. The implications of this model to practice are considered.     

Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and several alternative risk adjustments. Our results show that, between October 1996 and March 2000, we can reject the hypothesis that the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at 4- and 8-week horizons. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. We show that risk adjustments based on a power specification for the stochastic discount factor—which is the approach used so far in the literature that derives the objective density function from option prices- generates an excessive volatility of risk premia. We use alternative risk adjustments and find that the forecasting performance of the distribution improves slightly in some cases when risk aversion is allowed to be time-varying. Finally, from October 1996 to December 2004, the ex-ante risk premium perceived by investors and that are embedded in option prices is between 12 and 18% higher than the premium required to compensate the same investors for the realised volatility in stock market returns.      

Pareto efficient insurance contracts when the insurer's cost function is discontinuous

Summary. We consider the problem of efficient insurance contracts when the cost structure includes a fixed cost per claim. We prove existence of efficient insurance contracts and that the indemnity function in such contracts is non-decreasing in the damage. We further show that either there is no insurance, or the indemnity is positive for all losses, or efficient insurance contracts have a unique jump. We study variants of the model and provide a generalization to the case of non expected utilities. Our results are then applied to Townsend's model of deterministic auditing. Received: November 8, 2000; revised version: March 12, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We are grateful to F. Salanié for pointing out an error in the previous version of the paper and for suggesting Proposition 6 to us. Correspondence to: R.-A. Dana     

The political reception of innovations

Why do some societies embrace innovative technologies, policies, and ideas, while others are slow to adopt, and some even resist, them? Incumbent producers are most likely to be affected by certain kinds of innovations; they also wield a disproportionate influence in the design of institutions and policies that encourage or limit their adoption. We show formally that the elite has four cardinal policy options: to appropriate the innovation for itself; to encourage its adoption; to tax, regulate, or limit the innovation; or to block it. We show that six features of an innovation determine how it is received: (i) whether it is easy to replicate; (ii) whether it complements or competes with the elite's sources of income; (iii) whether its impact is broad or narrow; (iv) whether it is location-dependent, and (v) concealable; (vi) whether it requires large fixed costs. While other works have occasionally considered one of these factors, we show where each feature comes from, and we assess them systematically and together. We provide illustrative evidence of the relevance and generality of the model to understand the fate of a variety of innovations.     

Assessing complementarity in organizational innovations for technological innovation: the role of knowledge management practices

We empirically investigate the pattern of complementarity among four organizational practices. Firm-level data were drawn from the Community Innovation Survey, carried out in Luxembourg. Supermodularity tests confirm the crucial role of organizational innovation in raising firms’ technological innovation. The pattern of complementarity across organizational practices differs according to the type of innovation (i.e. product or process), as well as according to whether the firm is in the first stage of its innovation process (i.e. being innovative or not) or in a later stage (i.e. sales of new products).     

加入WTO与中国宏观经济管理创新

目前，我国已正式加入WTO。加入WTO必将给中国的宏观经济管理带来巨大的影响，因为世贸组织所确立的一系列规则和机制是用来规范和约束成员国的政府行为。本从宏观经济管理的能力，目标，主体，客体，手段等方面入手，分析了加入WTO对中国宏观经济管理的影响，在此基础上，提出了应对入世挑战的中国宏观经济管理的创新思路。     

Knowledge structure,network structure,exploitative and exploratory innovations

ABSTRACT

Taking the data of 20,863 patents in the field of Artificial Intelligence between 2000 and 2018 as an example, this paper examined the relationships among organisations’ knowledge structure, network structure, exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation. The results show that organisations’ knowledge combinatorial potential and knowledge diversity have positive effects on both exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation. Organisations’ degree centrality and structural holes in the collaboration network can partly mediate the relationships between their knowledge structure and exploratory and exploitative innovations.     

Search practices for discontinuous innovation: scale development and construct validation

Managing innovation and particularly searching for new ideas in a steady state environment is really different than in discontinuous conditions where traditional practices and routines may prove ineffective. This paper reviews and empirically explores the field of search strategies and practices for discontinuous innovation and, for the first time, tests the validity of a ‘discontinuous innovation (DI) search capacity’ construct. Based on a comprehensive literature review on the innovation search stage and on the evidence of more than 80 case studies reported by the Discontinuous Innovation Laboratory, a questionnaire was developed and submitted to a 500 high-tech firm sample. Four DI search dimensions were identified, each consisting of a bundle of interrelated yet distinct practices. We empirically tested the DI search capacity and measured it as a second-order construct by using the structural equation modelling.     

Technological innovations and economic prosperity: A time series analysis

Using a univariate decomposition of per capita real GDP into its permanent trend and irregular components, the objective of this paper is to measure, rank, and compare the relative importance of the major technological innovations of the past two centuries as measured by their contribution to the growth rate of real per capita GDP. The paper uses the growth model and Beveridge and Nelson’s (1981) univariate decomposition method to measure and to compare the economic impact of random technological shocks, as measured by the average increase in real per capita GDP during sub-periods of major technological advancements.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

A multiple perspectives view of the market case for green energy

This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of the market case for green energy. These energy sources are widely considered to have less of an ecological impact than conventional energy sources. The case for green energy is viewed from the multiple perspectives TOP (technical, organizational, personal) framework. The green energy technologies will need to meet certain technical, organizational and personal criteria and resolve key issues in order to address the barriers to market adoption. The multiple perspectives approach facilitates the evaluation of green-energy alternatives as potential new products which would enable organizations and individuals to meet both economic and green criteria that impact customer value creation. Given the present trends of increasing energy use and requirements to minimize environmental impact, green energy adoption may become a key element of strategies to ensure long-term economic growth.     

Financial innovations and the future of monetary policy in Nigeria

This paper examines the implications of financial innovations on Nigeria’s monetary policy, using: trend analysis, error correction mechanism, and a structural model estimated with generalized method of moments. The study found that financial innovation improves the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission, and the efficiency of the financial system. However, it increases the output gap and adds an element of uncertainty in the monetary policy environment as it increases the cost of implementing monetary policy and impinges on the potency of the operating target through its impact on the stability of the money multiplier, money velocity, and demand for money.     

A new approach to bad news effects on volatility: the multiple-sign-volume sensitive regime EGARCH model (MSV-EGARCH)

In this paper, using daily data for six major international stock market indexes and a modified EGARCH specification, the links between stock market returns, volatility and trading volume are investigated in a new nonlinear conditional variance framework with multiple regimes and volume effects. Volatility forecast comparisons, using the Harvey-Newbold test for multiple forecasts encompassing, seem to demonstrate that the MSV-EGARCH complex threshold structure is able to correctly fit GARCH-type dynamics of the series under study and dominates competing standard asymmetric models in several of the considered stock indexes.

The revitalization of Northeast China economy must start with institutional innovations

Starting with the basic knowledge of the system, the researcher analyzes the significance of institutional innovation in revitalizing old industrial bases in Northeast of China. It is not difficult to discover that Northeast＇s backwardness is caused by both of the historical and the artificial reasons. What＇s more, owing to the establishment of market economy, the old system no longer satisfies the development of the new system. Therefore, in order to speed up the Northeast region＇s economy and make it truly become the fourth growth pole, we must accelerate the innovation system.     

Drastic innovations and multiplicity of optimal licensing policies

Considering the licensing of a drastic cost-reducing innovation by an outside innovator in an n-firm Cournot oligopoly, we show that when the innovator uses combinations of fees and royalties, there are either n − 1 or n optimal licensing policies.     

The dynamics of environmental innovations: three stylised trajectories of clean technology

In this article, we explore the dynamics of environmental innovations developed by firms to comply with environmental regulations. Our analysis is based on a micro-simulation model of industrial dynamics. The question arises: how do firms competing in the same industry deal with environmental issues without altering their productive efficiency or the performance of the product? We focus on clean technology which seeks to combine environmental and productive dimensions by way of innovation offsets. Our simulations show that an innovative strategy based on a good balance between environmental and productive dimensions takes more time to develop and needs to address a ‘competence destroying effect’. Finally, we study favourable conditions for the development of this type of clean technology and draw some policy implications.