简论我国市场经济条件下的计划手段及其作用

简论我国市场经济条件下的计划手段及其作用鲁长保众所周知，计划在我国现阶段仍是最有效的宏观调控手段之一。在市场经济条件下，政府宏观调控是否需要和能否运用计划手段，关键在于政府运用的计划手段是否能与市场机制相容以及计划所起的作用是否具有不可替代性。在市场...     

缚住流动性过剩这条大龙

监管部门和经济学家都在研究谈论流动性过剩．寻找流动性过剩的原因．2007年．中国宏观调控的重点是抑制流动性过剩．只有积极治理．才能够缚住流动性过剩这条大龙。     

新书速递

《内外失衡下的中国宏观调控》 自2005年以来，我国逐步出现了产能过剩、流动性过剩、国际收支失衡、生产成本上升等比较严重的问题，这给中国经济带来了前所未有的复杂性，也给中国的宏观调控带来了严峻的挑战。本书的目的就在于探讨中国在内外失衡这种复杂的经济形势下的宏观经济政策。     

在宏观调控中强化与完善土地金融政策

在社会经济转型、发展方式转变、国际金融环境动荡的重要时期，强化与完善土地金融政策深入参与宏观调控，对我国宏观调控的成败得失、国民经济的持续稳定发展具有重大的理论与现实意义。本报告通过分析我国当前宏观调控的整体形势与存在的突出问题，阐明强化与完善土地金融政策参与宏观调控的现实紧迫性，提出了强化土地金融政策创新并积极参与宏观调控的具体建议。     

五大举措积极应对国际经济环境新变化

国家统计局局长谢伏瞻日前在中国发展高层论坛上表示，我国要把抑制物价的过快上涨作为宏观调控的首要目标，并以五大举措应对世界经济环境的变化。一是要继续坚持稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策，加强流动性管理，保持货币和信贷的合理增长；二是要调整理顺务工和务农收入的比价关系，加大对农业的补贴力度，防止务工收入的过快上涨，     

解读宏观调控四大目标

经济增长率、通胀率、就业率和国际收支是宏观经济最重要的四个变量,彼此相互联系、相互影响、相互制约,而且往往难以同时达到人们期望的理想状态,因此西方经济学称之为“神秘的四角”。十六大报告为国人描绘了未来20年全国建设小康社会的蓝图,这对宏观调控意味着更高的要求和更大的难度,把促进经济增长、增加就业、稳定物价和保持国际收支平衡确立为宏观调控四大目标,我认为有很现实的针对性。宏观调控的艺术,在于能恰当处理上述四方面的关系,寻求一个最佳平衡点。但是,这四个变量在各阶段的发展程度不一样,目前扩大内需是宏观调控的基本取向,促进经济增长仍是我们的首要目标。前20年,     

浅析我国银行的信贷资金管理体制

信贷资金管理体制是规定信贷资金在中央银行和商业银行之间如何分配和使用的基本制度。信贷资金管理体制是否完善，直接关系到中央银行的宏观调控是否有效和商业银行经营是否协调；关系到信贷资金使用是否合理和资金效益能否不断提高。因此，全面、历史地分析和研究我国银...     

怎样看待当前汇率、利率与通胀率

汇率、利率与通胀率是三个紧密关联的问题，也是当前中国宏观经济形势中的焦点。对这三个问题的判断及所采取对策，直接关系到2005年中国经济是否能平稳发展。     

寻求多重目标下的有效政策组合

寻求多重目标下的有效政策组合·代礼忠自１９９３年７月中央政府实施紧缩政策，加强宏观调控以来，我国经济成功地实现了“软着陆”，呈现出低通胀下稳定增长的基本格局。然而，在通胀率持续大幅度下降的同时，我国宏观经济却出现了回升乏力和其他严重的问题。其具体表现...     

培育住宅消费有赖配套改革

当前我国正处于由传统经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨变型阶段。日趋成熟的市场机制与不断完善的宏观调控相结合,在资源合理配置、要素优化组合方面已充分显示其魅力,过去长期存在的物资短缺、通胀率高的局面已基本改观,现在面临的重要问题是如何寻找到新的经济增长点来启动市场,以推动整个国民经济的稳定增长。     

Liquidity Risk and Banks' Asset Composition: Implications for Monetary Policy

Monetary growth models in which the government is a net debtor demonstrate that inflation adversely affects capital formation through the crowding out effect. Interestingly, the results are at odds with empirical evidence. In particular, recent studies point to an asymmetric relationship between inflation and the real economy across countries. Specifically, inflation and output are negatively correlated in poor countries. In contrast, inflation is associated with higher levels of economic activity in advanced economies. I present a monetary growth model with public debt, where the exposure to risk is inversely related to the level of income. In this setting, I demonstrate that the effects of monetary policy depend on the level of capital of the economy. In poor countries, banks' portfolios consist primarily of government liabilities. Therefore, a higher rate of money creation inhibits capital formation in these economies. In contrast, banks devote more resources toward productive uses in advanced countries. Consequently, monetary policy generates a Tobin effect.     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

The Impact of Corruption on the Black Market Premium

Recently the impact of institutional factors on macro variables has been gaining momentum. Researchers have investigated the impact of corruption, law and order, and bureaucracy on economic growth, inflation, investment, productivity, and the real exchange rate. In this article, we investigate empirically the impact of institutional factors on the black market premium. In many developing nations, because of government restrictions on capital and trade flows, there exists a black market for foreign exchange. By using data from 60 developing countries over the 1982-1995 period, we show that the black market premium is higher in countries that are plagued by more corruption. This finding seems to be insensitive to five different measures of corruption as well as whether cross-section or panel data are used.     

What to Target? Inflation or Exchange Rate

This study empirically compares, for the first time, the popular exchange‐rate–targeting regime with the recently emerged inflation‐targeting framework in developing countries. Applying a variety of propensity score matching methods and dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) regressions to a sample of 50 developing countries for the years 1990–2006, we find strong and robust evidence that, compared to exchange‐rate targeting, inflation targeting leads to a significantly lower inflation rate, and the lower inflation rate does not come at a cost of slower growth.     

Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China

The degree of inflation persistence fluctuates more in developing countries than in industrialized countries. This is because there are more economic reforms in developing countries than in industrialized countries. Hence, it is important to study the inflation persistence in developing countries. The present paper investigates the pattern of inflation persistence in China, a developing and transitional economy. Specifically, the paper studies statistically the number of structural breaks in China's inflation persistence based on the monthly retail price index (MRPI) and the quarterly retail price index (QRPI) inflation series from 1983 to 2011. The findings show that there are five and three structural breaks in the MRPI and QRPI inflation persistence, respectively. The present paper also exposes a high degree of persistence over the whole sample period and a slight decline in the level of the persistence since 1994. Furthermore, the persistence of two inflation series does not change monotonously but with obvious cyclical patterns. Using these derived estimated structural breakpoints, likely causes of the breakpoints in inflation persistence are investigated. Finally, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

美国现行宽松货币政策对世界物价的影响——基于不同经济体通货膨胀表现的分析

美国2007年年底开始大幅下调利率,2009年以来又采取了量化宽松的货币政策。与此同时,世界各国,尤其是新兴市场和发展中经济体发生了严重的通货膨胀。虽然美国的宽松货币政策确实提高了2008年以来的通货膨胀率,但是却不能解释新兴市场和发展中经济的通货膨胀普遍高于发达经济体的事实。高通胀的原因仍然在于各国国内的高货币供给。     

Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries

The goal of this article is to examine the determinants of inflation in both the short run and the long run for 54 developing countries using a panel data set covering the 1995–2004 period. Apart from the commonly used economic determinants of inflation, we model the impact of remittances and institutional variables on inflation. Using the Arellano and Bond panel dynamic estimator and the Arellano and Bover and the Blundell and Bond system generalized method of moments estimator, we find evidence that in developing countries remittances generate inflation. The effect of remittances on inflation is more pronounced in the long run. Moreover, we find that openness, debt, current account deficits, the agricultural sector, and the short‐term U.S. interest rate have a positive effect on inflation. We also find that improvements in democracy reduce inflation.     

Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?

This paper revisits the comparison of the effects of inflation targeters versus hard fixers and intermediate exchange rate regimes. In particular, we are interested in exploring the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility for a panel of 62 developing countries over the period 2006–2012. We also analyze the impact of IT regimes on REER in terms of its two component parts, i.e. relative tradable prices across countries as well as sectoral prices of tradables and nontradables within countries. The paper accounts for self-selection concerns regarding policy adoption and examines the effects of commodity exports and foreign exchange intervention. Notably, IT regimes seem to have experienced greater REER volatility, largely driven by external prices in developed countries. For developing countries, IT regimes show no difference in REER volatility, though there is some evidence that they have lower volatility in internal prices.     

汇率、经济增长与流动性过剩——基于经济全球化的考察

改革开放以来我国经济社会发展发生了深刻变化。过去三十年世界经济格局也发生了深刻变化。经济全球化深化了世界各国的经济联系,也创造了一种不稳定的双赢模式。发展中国家和发达国家均在全球产业转移中获得了要素生产力递增的收益。要素生产率递增可能使采取固定汇率的货币经历从高估到低估的转变,全球产业转移支持了发展中国家广泛而持续地保持这一优势,并以经常性项目和资本项目间跨国补偿机制实现了全球经济不稳定的平衡,也创造了全球流动性过剩。