Trade,Remittances, Institutions,and Economic Growth

This paper empirically investigates the role of trade, remittances, and institutions in economic development in a large sample of developing countries using recently developed instruments for all these variables. Both cross-country (over 30 years) and dynamic panel data (over 5-year periods) regressions of growth rates on instrumented trade, remittances, and institutions provide evidence of a significant impact of trade, institutions, and remittances on growth. While institutions foster growth, remittances hamper it. The effect of trade on growth is positive in cross-sectional regressions but ambiguous in dynamic panel data regressions. These results are indicative of a more important role for trade in explaining growth in the very long run compared with over shorter horizons.     

Do Institutions Cause Growth?

We revisit the debate over whether political institutions cause economic growth, or whether, alternatively, growth and human capital accumulation lead to institutional improvement. We find that most indicators of institutional quality used to establish the proposition that institutions cause growth are constructed to be conceptually unsuitable for that purpose. We also find that some of the instrumental variable techniques used in the literature are flawed. Basic OLS results, as well as a variety of additional evidence, suggest that (a) human capital is a more basic source of growth than are the institutions, (b) poor countries get out of poverty through good policies, often pursued by dictators, and (c) subsequently improve their political institutions.     

Linder Revisited: Trade and Development in the Spanish Economy

The literature has tended to treat Linder’s hypothesis with excessive simplicity given the absence of any formalization for this intuitive theory on trade potential in manufacturers, closely related to the intra‐industry trade paradigm. Against this background, in this paper we first propose a complete empirical model of bilateral trade containing all the determinants suggested by Linder, with special emphasis being placed on non‐homothetic preferences, national income distribution, international economic convergence and geographic distance. We then test the model in an appropriate case, namely that of Spain during the period of its economic transition running from approximately 1959 to 1986. This period was characterized by increasing openness and structural change, as well as by convergence until that country’s integration into the then European Economic Community. The results confirm the importance of the characteristics of internal demand, essentially of income distribution and non‐homothetic preferences. We find that trade horizons delimited by bilateral proximity in development and geographical distance, together with multilateral convergence in economic development are the main indicators for selecting trade partners as markets and suppliers, thereby reinforcing the idea that foreign markets can be considered as an extension of the national market.     

机关事业单位养老保险制度的人性化选择

伴随着城镇企业养老保险制度的逐渐完善,建立机关事业单位养老保险制度无疑是目前社会养老保险工作中最棘手的难题。由于过去城镇内部养老保险“二元化”特征导致现阶段对机关事业单位试点和改革存在诸多的分歧,试图在过去改革试点和城镇养老保险改革的经验基础上,以最终建立全国统一的社会保障制度为目标,力图最小化转制成本,对机关事业单位养老保险制度建立的原则和框架问题做一些探索。     

The New Comparative Political Economy

With the collapse of communism in the late 1980s the field of comparative political economy has undergone major revision. Socialism is no longer considered the viable alternative to capitalism it once was. We now recognize that the choice is between alternative institutional arrangements of capitalism. Progress in the field of comparative political economy is achieved by examining how different legal, political and social institutions shape economic behavior and impact economic performance. In this paper we survey the new learning in comparative political economy and suggest how this learning should redirect our attention in economic development.JEL classification: B53, O10, O20, P0     

经营性事业单位实行会计集中核算存在问题及改进建议

会计集中核算制是会计委派制的一种常用方式。实行会计集中核算对于加强对下属单位的财务管理、防止资产流失和各种腐败行为具有重要作用。但会计集中核算制毕竟是一种带有较为浓厚的行政管制色彩的制约性措施，尤其是对于经营性事业单位，如操作不当，容易挫伤下属单位的经营积极性。为此。在实施中主管单位及领导应减少行政干预，强化经济激励。同时，要处理好会计核算、会计监督与财务管理的关系，以保证会计集中核算制发挥出最大的效用。     

中国对外贸易与金融发展的互动关系特征及实证检验

文章运用Geweke因果分解检验和协整检验方法,就对外贸易与金融发展的因果关系、反馈份额等进行实证检验。检验结果表明:我国对外贸易与金融发展规模在长短期变动上均存在显著双向因果关系;与金融发展效率只存在单方向长期因果关系;而与金融发展完善指标不存在显著的因果关系。从总体反馈份额看,可以认为我国对外贸易与金融发展目前呈现出对外贸易带动金融发展为主导的"需求尾随"的互动关系,体现了对外贸易先发的核心地位。     

Institutions,innovation and growth

This paper looks at the link between the quality of economic institutions and innovation, and innovation and growth. We construct a measure of the innovation content of individual manufacturing industries and show that countries with stronger economic institutions specialize in more innovation‐intensive industries. Our results also provide evidence that industries involving higher levels of innovation grow relatively faster in countries with better economic institutions. The results suggest that innovation is an important channel through which higher quality economic institutions contribute to better growth performance in the long run.     

论民营对外贸易的经济贡献及发展策略

民营对外贸易的快速发展,拉动了国民经济增长,推动了所有制经济结构调整,增加了就业机会,扩大了财政收入和外汇储备,加快了外贸体制改革步伐。但仍存在准入门槛过高、出口退税滞后等诸多问题。为促进民营对外贸易的发展,管理部门要营造平等竞争的政策环境,进出口商会及中介组织要增强规范管理与服务,民营企业也要提高自身的竞争力。     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.     

论林产品贸易的可持续发展

林产品贸易不仅关系到我国林业产业的发展,也关系到环境保护问题。从可持续发展角度来看,我国林产品贸易还存在产业结构不合理、进口依存度过高、贸易市场集中等问题,为此,有必要采取策略,对林产品贸易做出调整,以期实现可持续发展,为我国的经济、林业产业发展和环境保护做出更大的贡献。     

东亚经济发展的政治因素分析

本文在简介有关东亚国家和地区经济发展原因的几种观点的基础上,分析了东亚国家和地区经济发展的政治因素的作用,主要包括政府与市场、政治稳定、政府权威、政府能力以及政治、经济和文化资源的有效整合等。     

广东省出口贸易可持续发展评价研究基于熵值法模型评价

通过经济效益、社会效益和环境效益三个方面,以及进一步细化成的22个三级指标,运用熵值法模型对广东省出口贸易的可持续发展进行了综合分析与评价;评价结果表明:广东省出口贸易总体上朝着可持续发展的方向发展,但经济、社会和环境三者的发展不相协调;结合评价结果,提出了广东省节能环保和绿色贸易转型的可持续发展模式.     

林业引资与林产品贸易的可持续发展

林业引进外资不仅关系到林业产业的发展前景，也关系到林产品贸易的可持续发展问题。实证研究表明，林业引进外资与林产品贸易呈正相关关系．对林产品的出口有着极大的推动作用。因此，加大林业引资对于今后改善我国林业进出口的不平衡，缓减林产品贸易进口依存度过高的问题都将有深远的影响。     

浅析中国巴西经贸关系

中国与巴西同为金砖国家,处在经济迅猛发展阶段,其相互合作意义重大。巴西原材料丰富,中国产品物美价廉,两国良好的经贸关系不仅体现在进出口上,在投资领域,经贸科研等方面也深入合作。近几年签署了多项大型合作项目,贸易往来能够通过本币进行结算,虽然巴西对来自中国进口商品的反倾销调查有所增加,但双边经贸关系发展前景广阔。     

Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development

We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining income levels around the world, using recently developed instrumental variables for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions trumps everything else. Once institutions are controlled for, conventional measures of geography have at best weak direct effects on incomes, although they have a strong indirect effect by influencing the quality of institutions. Similarly, once institutions are controlled for, trade is almost always insignificant, and often enters the income equation with the wrong (i.e., negative) sign. We relate our results to recent literature, and where differences exist, trace their origins to choices on samples, specification, and instrumentation.     

民主党派成员是大学生思想政治工作的重要力量

高校民主党派成员近年发展较快,这支队伍知识层次较高,参政议政能力较强,且社会联系广,敏感性较强,是一股重要的政治力量。民主党派成员在大学生思想政治工作中具有独特优势,我们要发挥他们的这种优势,加强民主党派成员自身道德建设,让他们在大学生思想政治工作中发挥重要作用。     

Rethinking Trade and Development: A Developmentalist Perspective

Abstract

In one of the longest lasting debates in economics, mainstream economists still basically rest their position regarding trade and development policies on the static principle of comparative advantage, while relying on fancier econometric techniques to find empirical support. This paper draws attention to dynamic considerations, first emphasizing Smith's observation that there was more scope for division of labor in manufactures than in primary production. Prebisch noted that primary products generally have lower income elasticity of demand than manufactures. In a global context where some countries undertook industrial development ahead of others, these would generate the trade patterns that Ricardo predicted. Investment would flow from the industrial center to the periphery to augment primary production as Mill anticipated. Through the dominance of backwash over spread effects, international inequalities would widen à la Mrydal. International dualism, especially in a technological sense, would be aggravated à la Singer. To counter such uneven development, developmentalists such as Hamilton, List, Prebisch, Myrdal, and Singer advocated technological acquisitions and industrial development on the part of the less-developed countries or regions. Contrary to mainstream portrayal they did not simply advocate protectionism. Instead, their policy suggestions were nuanced and sophisticated, and included both non-trade and trade instruments, means of building technological capabilities, and (for those writing after World War II) considerations of how to sensibly direct and regulate the activities of multinational corporations. These policy ideas appear to neatly link up with those drawn from case studies of East Asian development undertaken by some researchers that are outside of the economics mainstream.     

Domestic Political Institutions,Diplomatic Style and Trade Agreements: A Comparative Study of China and Japan

Through an analysis of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs), this article seeks to examine the factors that caused the gap in Japan and China's relationship with Southeast Asia to emerge and expand in the new millennium. In order to address this question, the article focuses on China and Japan's diplomatic styles and domestic political institutions and examines how these two elements influenced negotiations on the formation of FTAs, as well as the evolving perceptions that the Southeast Asian nations have of these two states. The article argues that Japan and China possess different kinds of weaknesses in implementing feasible external policies – a lack of policy decisiveness for Japan and weak policy credibility for China – which have resulted from the operation of domestic political institutions. Given these differences, while China implemented pragmatic diplomacy that helped improve its policy credibility, Japan's bargaining diplomatic style did not serve to rectify its weak policy decisiveness. Such differences in their diplomatic approach have led to the differing influence of these two states on Southeast Asia.     

金融发展与出口贸易间的双向影响机制

建立两个数学模型分析了发展中国家金融发展与出口贸易间的双向影响机制。理论模型显示：金融发展通过影响一国资本密集型出口行业比较优势促进出口结构优化;贸易开放通过增加一国资本、技术密集型行业融资需求,直接推动一国金融发展。研究为金融与出口贸易协调发展提供了理论支持,可为统筹金融与贸易政策的制定提供决策参考。