“大数法则”：专业化与多元化的选择（上）

企业领域成长战略的首要问题是:在何种环境和条件下,企业应选择专业化战略？在什么样的环境中,满足什么样条件的情况下,企业应选择多元化战略？为回答这个问题,我们应该从宏观环境、行业状况和企业本身三个主要方面进行分析;在这三个层面的分析中,我们应选择出最为重要的因素作为判断标准,因为我们不可能也不必要罗列全部因素进行逐项分析;在针对每项因素的具体分析中,仅为了分析和表述的方便,我们将某些本来是连续状态的因素,抽象为相互对应的较为独立的状态。运用上述方法,我们对国内外近百家多元化经营或专业化经营企业进行案例分析,并在…     

为什么老是赌“跳楼”?

在历年的楼市调控中,围绕房价走势,经济界的一些学者形成了"唱空派"与"唱多派",两派唇枪舌剑、攻讦不断,有些人为证明其观点的正确性和预言事实的真实性,甚至以"裸奔""跳楼"相赌,全然不顾学者的温雅与斯文,让芸芸众生纷纷窃笑。     

分享“十年法则”

成功是存在法则的，“十年法则”就是其中之一。 “十年法则”基于实证研究。人类智慧心理学的研究表明，一个人精通某个领域需要10年时间。斯德哥尔摩大学的Anders Ericsson博士研究了职业人士的成功因素后指出：“如果希望在特定的领域做到世界顶级水平，需要10年左右持续精心的训练。”韩国的孔柄溟博士也根据自己的阅历和观察得出相同结论：     

“金九银十”和“铜九铁十”

按照常理,每年的九月、十月是房地产市场的销售旺季,被称之为“金九银十”。今年借“金九银十”这个契机来摆脱当前楼市的低迷,是众多开发商的热切期待。但是,房地产市场却在这个黄金季节里掀起了一股打折降价风,继万科在上海、杭州等地大规模打折促销后,恒大地产、世茂集团等开发商也纷纷跟进,宣布降价,     

敬业爱岗务求“十要”

岗位，是一个人展现敬业精神的最好体现，也是一个人展示自我价值的最好舞台。在社会的坐标系中，每个人都有自己相应的岗位。在履行各自职责上，求真务实，兢兢业业，淡泊名利，恪尽职守，热爱本职，精益求精，艰苦奋斗，开拓创新，多作贡献，是敬业爱岗的主旨。具体来说，敬业爱岗应做到以下“十要”：[第一段]     

慎“赌”房价

自去年足坛打黑以来,也许赌字是媒体曝光率最牛的字之一。房地产业内似乎也不甘寂寞。近日,有的媒体评论员与某房地产大佬就今年的房价涨幅问题也想赌一把。称中国今年70个城市房价涨幅若超过5%自己再也不说房价;若房价涨幅没达到5%,请对方从此闭嘴。     

吴长江“赌”雷士

13年来,他的雷士其实没漏掉中国民营企业成长过程可能遇到的任何一个问题,一路拼杀竟成行业老大。如果说成功之中总有必然,那么,吴长江所掌握的这个＂必然＂是什么？     

华晨赌“马”

宝马能否帮助复杂且孱弱的华晨赌赢决胜一局即使捧着一个热气腾腾的水杯,英国人高博文(Chris Gubbey)仍旧双手冰凉。因为鼻塞,他说话时还伴有浓重的鼻音。这里是10月中旬的沈阳,最低温度已到零度,但华晨汽车总部的办公楼尚未供暖。高博文来这里任职还不到一个月,没有名片,空旷的办公室甚至连饮水机都没有,只有几件简单的家具。这一切看起来跟他"董事长顾问"的身份极不相称。     

屈臣氏为什么能“火”

想必大家对屈臣氏并不陌生,它每家店论面积不过数百平方米,论货品多不过千,按规模来衡量,不过是一家迷你超市。然而近年来,屈臣氏这个国内第一家以"个人护理"概念经营的门店,在"健康、美态、快乐"三大理念的指导下飞速     

出色的“管家婆”汤美娟

都说汤美娟是个幸运的人,连她自己也这么说。但用幸运来解释汤美娟的成功显然不够充分,认识汤美娟的人都说她漂亮,这个女人成功的背后到底是智慧多一些还     

Why profit related pay will fail

Here the author discusses the concept of profit related pay and assesses the practical implications of recent measures to promote this method of payment in Britain through tax relief. The new initiative, it is argued, is unsound in concept and design and unlikely to meet stated objectives.     

张朝阳玩物不丧志

"世界上凡是伟大的公司,都是最具个人特色的公司。"在张朝阳看来,他个人与搜狐的关系,如同比尔·盖茨与微软、斯蒂夫·乔布斯与苹果公司     

Why Unions in the United States will Die: American Labor Organizations in the Age of Trump

This essay analyzes the effects of Donald Trump’s election as President on organized labor in the United States and, more specifically, on the demographic of workers responsible for his electoral college victory. The argument is that culture rather than economics explains Trump’s success in capturing key industrial states. His support depended on white middle-aged male voters without college degrees, the same cohort that makes up the backbone of unions in the United States. The likelihood is that Trump’s policies will further immiserate the American working class rather than reinvigorate it. In three key areas, Trump’s presidency will result in lower union membership density and higher inequality of wealth. The cultural orientation of Trump’s supporters outweighed politics, policy, and competence in selecting a national leader.     

Why,did I lose? Debriefing quality and its effects on justice,protests, and sales loss attributions

When suppliers lose in a competitive tender process, they need feedback to make accurate sales loss attributions and adjustments to their competitive strategy. Unfortunately, buyers seldomly provide sufficient feedback to enable diagnostics, learning, and adaptation. The purpose of this research is to explore a buyer's debriefing as an effective feedback mechanism. Based on data from a sample of 218 U.S. government source selections, a new construct, debriefing quality, is developed as a multi-dimensional construct comprised of: proposal efficacy information, procedural compliance and decision understanding information, and competitive intelligence information. Results show that debriefing quality enhances procedural justice and internal and external attributions and reduces supplier opportunism and perceptions of buyer opportunism. Further, the underlying procedural justice of the source selection deters bid protests, and debriefing quality can impact perceptions of procedural justice. Importantly, debriefing quality is essential in the assignment of loss attributions to strategy, thus affecting strategy change. These findings expand attribution theory by identifying new external attributions particular to a business-to-business context, namely suspicion of buyer opportunism and procedural justice. The study closes with specific information buyers can provide to suppliers to mitigate bid protests and help suppliers learn from the tender enabling future strategy improvements.     

Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling

Efficient markets in college football are tested over a 25-year period, 1976–2000. the market in general is found to be efficient, but betting on underdogs of more than 28 points violates a fair bet. The strategy of betting home underdogs reveals stronger results. Home underdogs of more than seven points are found to reject the null hypotheses of a fair bet over the last 10 years of the sample, 1991–2000. Home underdogs of more than 28 points are found to reject the null of no profitability during the same time frame.     

油价大赌局

涨价,涨价,还是涨价,从今年1月2日突破100美元以来,国际油价仅仅用了不到半年时间又击穿了140美元,石油价格的接连暴涨,让全世界所有国家面临通货膨胀的危险,让全球所有资本市场为之颤抖,在经历这场疯狂上涨的同时,越来越多的人在问--是谁制造了高油价,油价窜升的背后有什么资本运作的玄机,为了寻找答案,我们的记者展开一场跨越大洋的对话,揭开了一场油价大赌局的面纱。     

会计信息的偏离、监管及其博弈分析

本文提出了会计信息偏离的概念,指出只有严重偏离才会构成一般所说的会计信息失真。在此基础上,根据信息偏离的性质将其划分为违规性偏离和非违规性偏离,并对其各自的成因作了分析。并以博弈模型论证了外部监管在治理会计信息失真中的重要作用。     

Odds-setting efficiency in gambling markets: Evidence from the PGA TOUR

This paper describes the gambling market for PGA TOUR events for the 2002 season. The extent to which the odds predict the outcome is examined, illustrating how much information is captured in the odds and whether there are any identifiable biases in the odds. The overall implied profit to the casino is calculated as well as the returns to several naive betting strategies. By splitting the sample based on whether or not Tiger Woods is in the tournament, a “Tiger Woods effect” or a “thin market versus thick market effect” can be examined. On the whole, efficient markets propositions hold up, but the overwhelming share of the variation in the tournament outcome remains unexplained.     

Why so fed up and footloose in IT? Spelling out the associations between occupation and overall job satisfaction shown by WERS 2004

Analysis of the Workplace Employment Relations Survey 2004 employee data shows striking differences in levels of overall job satisfaction among occupational groups. The examination is based on the 81 Minor Occupation groupings in UK Standard Occupational Classification 2000 classification. Taking a possible specific occupational effect possibly conditioned by resonance effects, as a theoretical point of departure, multivariate analysis is used to restate apparent occupational effect as occupationally bundled individual‐level variables and workplace influences—a process seen as exchanging nominal‐level measurement (names of occupations) with theoretical variables. Although 13 minor occupational groups retain statistically significant independent influence after the statistical treatment, these effects are small. Detailed illustration and specification of bundling effects and further examination of their sources take information and communications technology and communication professionals as their point of reference.