我国影子银行的发展及对经济的影响

近年来各种理财产品和信托计划到期无法正常兑付的现象时有发生,这是我国影子银行快速增多带来的风险,如果不采取有效措施对银子银行进行监管极有可能引发系统性的金融危机。近些年来我国影子银行存在的问题日益突出,由于投资对经济增长的拉动力较弱,使得影子银行给我国经济增长带来很大的负面影响。可见,探究我国影子银行的发展状况,分析影子银行对我国经济的影响,并依据影子银行的发展状况采取措施予以监管,在保证我国金融不断创新的基础上防范金融风险十分必要。     

影子银行规模与经济增长的关系研究 ——基于VAR模型的实证分析

以我国影子银行2006年-2017年的季度数据为研究对象,通过建立包含影子银行规模,经济增速,居民消费价格指数,城镇登记失业率以及金融机构人民币贷款余额增长率的VAR模型来研究影子银行规模与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果显示:一方面,影子银行的发展会促进GDP的增长,也能降低失业率,但是却不利于物价稳定;另一方面,经济的发展会促进影子银行的规模扩张,而失业率和物价水平的波动对影子银行规模的影响均不显著。     

影子银行对我国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于2007-2014年数据

运用2007年至2014年我国宏观月度数据,构建VAR模型实证研究影子银行与我国经济增长的关系,研究结果发现影子银行与我国经济增长之间的关系呈倒U型.这意味着,发展之初影子银行的扩张对经济增长起促进作用,达到一定规模后将阻碍经济增长.因此,一方面要充分发挥影子银行对经济增长的正能量,另一方面也要严格控制影子银行规模的无序膨胀给宏观经济带来的负效应.     

后欧债危机时期的影子银行监管

影子银行在美国次贷危机后迅速在全球蔓延,也给欧洲经济复苏造成了严重的负面影响,系统深入研究欧债危机时期影子银行运行及监管对欧洲债务危机后欧洲经济顺利复苏意义重大。本文运用历史与逻辑的分析方法,对影子银行于欧洲经济复苏的风险进行分析,结果表明,欧洲影子银行规模大、风险高,并且系统性风险强,对欧洲经济复兴造成不良影响,结合欧盟对影子银行现有的监管政策,本文提出从泛欧监管、做好风险隔离以及加强引导等方面来完善监管政策。     

政府影子银行债务与实体经济波动关系的实证研究

金融危机以来,在积极财政政策的推动下,我国影子银行债务特别是具有高杠杆性的政府影子银行债务快速增长,金融结构的不平衡风险增加,对实体经济稳定发展产生了较大的负面影响。如何平衡好稳增长和防风险之间的关系、增强金融服务实体经济的能力、防范化解重大金融风险已成为当务之急。本文运用多元线性回归方法分析政府影子银行债务对实体经济波动影响的阈值效应,并进一步通过构建时变GARCH-CoVaR模型,测度政府影子银行债务与实体经济之间的风险溢出效应。研究结果表明,政府影子银行债务对实体经济波动的影响存在阈值效应;政府影子银行债务与实体经济波动之间存在单向的风险溢出效应。     

影子银行对我国宏观经济运行的影响研究

随着经济的发展,影子银行逐渐发展壮大,其"信用创造"功能及游离于监管之外的特点,不可避免地将影响我国的经济发展。本文通过建立SVAR模型,实证研究了影子银行对我国宏观经济运行的影响。结果表明,影子银行对经济增长和物价稳定都具有显著的影响,对信贷渠道的影响有限,对广义货币供应量具有一定的削弱作用。对此,监管机构必须加强对影子银行的监测与引导;货币当局应扩展宏观观测指标,并加强价格型调控;央行应规范商业银行行为,提供融资便利,以便发挥影子银行对宏观经济的正向影响,减少影子银行对宏观经济的负向影响。     

外刊

影子银行的诱惑《经济学人》2014年5月10日 在被问及当前全球经济的最大危险是什么时,英国央行行长、FSB主席称是新兴市场的影子银行。截止去年初,影子银行资产达71万亿美元（十年前为26万亿）,资产规模在全球金融系统占1／4。中国影子银行的规模仅2012年就增长了42％。     

2013年张掖市影子银行风险分析

随着区域经济加快发展,以小额贷款公司、典当公司和担保公司等为主体的机构类影子银行所产生的风险开始凸显,当前如何规避风险、使影子银行体系更加规范和有序发展问题已刻不容缓。本文对张掖市2013年影子银行发展现状和主要风险进行分析,提出规范影子银行发展的对策建议。     

中国影子银行及其对实体经济的影响

中国影子银行源于国家严控金融导致正规金融供给不足,造成金融发展出现替代化。影子银行主要包括：银行理财产品、非银行金融机构贷款产品和民间借贷。中国影子银行的存在对实体经济会产生重大影响,引起中国实体经济＂空心化＂,影响市场取向的经济转型。解决影子银行问题既要着眼于有限监管,又要积极推进金融市场化改革。     

影子银行风险分析及防范措施研究

影子银行出现在20世纪80年代,最初在美国兴起,可以说比传统银行更适应经济社会的发展,对于美国经济的稳定起到了重要的促进作用。然而,我国一些政策措施目前还有待于完善,金融领域一些漏洞还未被解决,使得影子银行在我国的发展还存在诸多的风险,不利于经济的快速稳定发展。所以,想要使影子银行稳定长期的发展,就需要对金融行业进行创新改革,从而防范影子银行风险的发生。     

境外影子银行监管制度的新进展及其启示

目前,境外主要经济体如美英欧和以FSB为代表的国际金融组织出台的金融监管改革方案,都把加强影子银行体系的监管作为其不可缺少的有机组成部分,这是金融全球化条件下防控金融系统性风险积聚和监管套利的需要和必然反映。借鉴境外加强影子银行监管的最新制度安排和变革经验,我国应在结合影子银行体系自身运营特征的基础上,从影子银行的区分、宏观审慎监管框架的构建、微观审慎监管安排的细化与相关监管法律法规的立法完善等方面,加强我国影子银行的监管,使之与传统银行共生互补,更好地服务于我国的实体经济。     

Whither Islamic Banking?

Islamic banking is visibly on the rise across the globe, supported by a growing clientele, both Muslim and non‐Muslim, although it has yet to demonstrate that it is a viable alternative to conventional banking. Islamic banking is still under the shadow of conventional banking, not only with products that are strikingly similar to those offered by conventional banks, but also with conventional banks having a strong presence as stakeholders in the Islamic banking industry. Islamic banking is still in the early phase of a presumably long evolutionary process, apparently stuck in the initial phase of product differentiation. Islamic banks are competing with conventional banks rather than among themselves, which does not augur well for innovations and creativity, as it tends to keep them preoccupied with modifications of conventional products with Shari'ah compliance. Islamic banks have arrived at a new crossroads. They could either continue on the same path of what may be termed as ‘head‐on competition’ with conventional banks or change their direction in favour of a ‘niche market’ strategy.     

IM ＆ EX, A ROCKY ROAD

Subprime mortgage crisis, which was triggered by a dramatic rise in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the United States,has interrupted china＇s peaceful rise and has major adverse consequences for banks and financial markets around the globe. Although the direct impact of the subprime crisis is rather small to china＇s economy since the exposure of several national banks to the U.S. subprime lending market is relatively limited, there is no denying that the U.S. subprime crisis has been dragging down world＇s major stocks for months and making it difficult for china＇s foreign trade. It is predictable that the impact of this financial tsunami will shed its shadow on china＇s economy sooner or later. Experts are of the view that China may not be directly hit by the crisis as a result of its strong economic fundamentals, limited exposure to this particular variety of assets,     

行政处罚对银行风险承担的影响：仅罚机构还是兼罚责任人？

立足于我国监管部门大力整治银行业市场乱象的现状，文章系统梳理了不同类型行政处罚对银行风险承担的影响机制，并利用手工整理的2008-2018年银行行政处罚数据，对理论假说进行实证检验。经验结果显示，“仅机构处罚”不能显著降低银行风险承担水平，“双罚”可以有效抑制银行风险承担，并且这种抑制作用具有长期效应。异质性检验表明，“双罚”对大银行、国有银行和全国性银行风险的抑制作用更明显。机制检验发现,减少理财产品、同业业务等影子银行规模是“双罚”降低银行风险承担的重要渠道。研究还发现，随着责任人处罚严厉程度的上升，“双罚”对银行风险承担的抑制效果越好。政策启示在于，加大责任人问责力度，整治影子银行乱象，是监管部门防范银行风险的关键所在。     

宏观杠杆率、影子银行规模与银行体系稳定性——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

“去杠杆”、“强监管”和“防风险”是新时期经济社会发展中的关键任务。本文选取2010-2018年季度数据构建微观审慎监管视角下的银行体系稳定性指数,分析检验我国宏观杠杆率、影子银行规模对银行体系稳定性的时变影响机制。研究显示:我国银行体系稳定性总体呈震荡向下趋势,由稳定阶段逐渐转向当前高度不稳定阶段。进一步地,采用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)实证研究发现:我国宏观杠杆率与影子银行规模对银行体系稳定性的冲击响应具有时变特征和时滞效应。宏观杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的非线性动态关系,二者叠加会对银行体系产生不利冲击。中长期内,宏观杠杆率过快攀升会加重银行体系不稳定,杠杆率适度波动一定程度上有利于银行体系稳定;短中期内,影子银行的适当扩张给稳定银行体系产生积极影响,但过度膨胀会形成长期持久的负向冲击。鉴于此,现阶段我国应加强经济去杠杆、影子银行监管及银行风险防范多重政策目标之间的有效协同,以维护金融体系稳定。     

Neue Finanztechnologien — Bankenmarkt in Bewegung

Digitalisation opens new channels for financial transactions. Crowdlending and Digital Advice offer additional opportunities for customers to manage their assets. In the banking market, “FinTechs” are the most notable example of what Schumpeter described as “creative destruction”. They could threaten the existence of established banks. Therefore the banks should use the FinTechs as a testing laboratory for customer behavior and testing ground for a more modern marketing policy. This environment gives rise to concerns that there may develop an unregulated area of shadow banks. But it should be considered that a level playing field has to be ensured and that innovative processes and products are not stalled. A potential advantage of Digital Advice is that consumers can have the possibility to access the relevant information they need to make their financial decisions. Consumers, in turn, are only able to benefit from this advantage if competition between financial service providers leads to a supply of clear and comprehensible information about financial products and an appropriate degree of data security. The rise of Big Data analyses in retail banking allows a more precise estimation of creditworthiness risk as well as a consumer’s willingness-to-pay, propensity to switch and responsiveness to marketing offers. This not only impacts on competition, it represents major challenges for policymakers, authorities and consumers alike.     

E-coli,Repo Madness,and the Financial Crisis

All bond prices plummeted (spreads rose) during the financial crisis, not just the prices of subprime-related bonds. These price declines were because of a banking panic in which institutional investors and firms refused to renew sale and repurchase agreements (repos)—short-term, collateralized, agreements that the U.S. Federal Reserve rightly used to count as money. Collateral for repos was, to a large extent, securitized bonds. Firms were forced to sell assets as a result of the banking panic, reducing all bond prices and creating losses. There is nothing mysterious or irrational about the panic. There were genuine fears about the locations of subprime risk concentrations among counterparties. This banking system (the “shadow” or “parallel” banking system)—repos based on securitization—is a genuine banking system, as large as the traditional, regulated banking system. It is of critical importance to the economy because it is the funding basis for the traditional banking system. Without it, traditional banks will not lend and credit will not be created.     

Does globalisation affect the shadow economy?

We investigate the impact of globalisation on the shadow economy using panel data for 119 countries. Our evidence suggests that globalisation matters in mitigating shadow development. More specifically, we find that political globalisation reduces the shadow economy, whereas economic and social globalisations have limited statistical support after controlling for important factors that affect the size of the shadow economy. Overall, these results are robust after accounting for an alternative measure of the shadow economy, outliers, endogeneity and alternative model specifications.     

Black's Model of Interest Rates as Options, Eigenfunction Expansions and Japanese Interest Rates

Black's (1995) model of interest rates as options assumes that there is a shadow instantaneous interest rate that can become negative, while the nominal instantaneous interest rate is a positive part of the shadow rate due to the option to convert to currency. As a result of this currency option, all term rates are strictly positive. A similar model was independently discussed by Rogers (1995) . When the shadow rate is modeled as a diffusion, we interpret the zero-coupon bond as a Laplace transform of the area functional of the underlying shadow rate diffusion (evaluated at the unit value of the transform parameter). Using the method of eigenfunction expansions, we derive analytical solutions for zero-coupon bonds and bond options under the Vasicek and shifted CIR processes for the shadow rate. This class of models can be used to model low interest rate regimes. As an illustration, we calibrate the model with the Vasicek shadow rate to the Japanese Government Bond data and show that the model provides an excellent fit to the Japanese term structure. The current implied value of the instantaneous shadow rate in Japan is negative.     

影子价格与产业结构合理化分析

影子价格来源于资源配置的最优化。在一个经济系统中,不同的产业部门很可能消耗同种资源,但不同产业部门消耗该资源的影子价格却可能存在差异。可根据影子价格的差异对资源在不同产业部门内的配置方案进行调整,整个系统的总体效益目标得到提高,从而实现资源的最优利用。影子价格难以真实地反映资源的使用价值,以及影子价格的不惟一性和稳定性差等问题。