Do Homeless Shelter Conditions Determine Shelter Population? The Case of the Dinkins Deluge

We study why families enter and leave homeless shelters. After 2 years of decline, the number of homeless families in New York City's shelter system began rising again in summer 1990 and continued to rise until it hit an all-time record high in summer 1993. The conventional wisdom is that a flood of new families were attracted into shelters by the Dinkins administration's aggressive policy of placing homeless families into subsidized housing. We test the conventional wisdom and reject it. Better prospects of subsidized housing increase flows into the shelter system, but this effect is not nearly large enough to offset the first order shelter effect—taking families out of the shelters reduces the number of families in them. Why did the shelter population grow after Spring 1990? A major part of the reason is that the city responded to conventional wisdom and slowed placement into subsidized housing. Other major factors were the 1990–92 recession, falling real welfare benefits and more NYCHA applications, and greater use of more attractive Tier II shelters instead of hotels.     

Is shared housing a way to reduce homelessness? The effect of household arrangements on formerly homeless people

Most single adults share housing with other adults, and living alone is considerably more expensive than living with someone else. Yet policies that discourage shared housing for formerly homeless people or people at risk of becoming homeless are common, and those that encourage it are rare. This would be understandable if such housing adversely affected its users in some way. We ask whether shared housing produces adverse effects. Our provisional answer is no. For the most part, whether a person lives alone or shares housing seems to make no difference to the outcomes we studied although shared housing is associated with reduced psychotic symptomology. We use data from ACCESS, a 5-year, 18-site demonstration project with over 6000 formerly homeless individuals as participants.     

Reflections on Working with Homeless People

As a housing case manager in a homeless shelter, I work closely with homeless people every day. While there is an important place for the tools of social science in understanding the challenges they face, we should not distance ourselves emotionally from the homeless and treat them as stereotypes rather than as unique individuals. My main task in the shelter is to help the guests find their way through the almost impenetrable maze of government programs that are supposed to assist them in finding housing and work. Yet, about one-third of homeless people struggle with some form of mental illness, which adds to the complexity of serving them in a shelter. Physical disabilities, substance abuse, and criminal backgrounds create additional obstacles for a large number of homeless people. Those problems are often caused or compounded by homelessness. The primary cause of homelessness does not lie in the people themselves but in the capitalist system. Homelessness will remain a chronic problem until we create a society and economy in which accountability is localized, and communities on the scale of neighborhoods are strengthened to the point that they can respond to problems humanely.     

Fewer subsidized exits and a recession: How New York City’s family homeless shelter population became immense

Between December 1997 and May 2003, the number of families in New York City homeless shelters rose from 4315 to 9303. The 1997–2003 rise in family shelter population in this single city was greater than the combined total shelter populations of Texas and Florida in 2000. Why did this happen? From 1997 through 2000, New York was booming. Shelter population rose during the boom because the city slowed the rate at which it moved families into subsidized housing and it continued to rise after the boom because there was a recession. The population fell when the city stepped up placements into subsidized housing and the recession ended. The relationships are fairly complex. Macroeconomic conditions affect shelter population only with a lag. Placements into subsidized housing do not lure any considerable number of families into the system, but they keep those who are there longer, possibly by affecting the housing market.     

The duration of homelessness: evidence from a national survey

This paper provides evidence on the determinants of the duration of homelessness. We use newly available data from a large-scale, comprehensive microeconomic survey to estimate a parametric survival model of the length of a spell of homelessness. We find that homeless spells are longer for persons with certain demographic characteristics (such as older men) and behavioral histories (for example, previous incarceration and a history of drug and alcohol abuse). Our results suggest that current eligibility criteria for receiving housing assistance, which give preference to drug-free, single women with young children, are unlikely to reduce homelessness substantially and in a cost-effective manner.     

Do Landlords Discriminate? The Incidence and Causes of Racial Discrimination in Rental Housing Markets

Discrimination in housing markets occurs when equally qualified people are treated differently because of their membership in a particular group. This study focuses on racial and ethnic discrimination in qualitative actions by landlords, such as making an advertised housing unit available for inspection by a customer. The data come from the Housing Discrimination study, which conducted over 1500 rental housing audits in 25 metropolitan areas in 1989. Each audit consists of a visits to a landlord by a white person and either a black or Hispanic person with similar socio-economic characteristics. Using Chamberlain's fixed-effect logic estimation, we develop a nationally representative measure of the incidence of discrimination in landlord behavior and conduct hypothesis tests on the incidence and causes of discrimination. The results indicate widespread discrimination across several types of landlord behavior and support the hypotheses that landlords discriminate both out of personal prejudice and in response to the prejudice of present and future white clients.     

Housing submarkets and the impacts of foreclosures on property prices

The dramatic rise in the number of foreclosed properties since 2006 has come to assume the proportions of a national crisis. It is widely acknowledged that foreclosures hurt neighborhoods by devaluing the nearby properties through various channels. This paper offers a new way of conceptualizing and then estimating the potential effects of foreclosures on property values. Housing stock heterogeneity in the central city old neighborhood allows for the possibility that the impacts of nearby foreclosures may differ across types of housing. This study uses a dataset that covers twenty years of housing values from the City of Worcester (MA), and finds evidence that foreclosures of multi-family houses in close proximity influence the sales price of surrounding single-family properties after controlling for impact from foreclosure of nearby single-family houses. The most preferred estimate suggests that each multi-family foreclosure that occurs between 660 and 1320 feet away from the sale lowers the predicted sales price by approximately 3%. Nearby multi-family spillover impacts also persist over time. In addition, a new approach advocating for an alternative definition of housing submarket suggests that a distant foreclosure within the same submarket also lower sales price of a single-family home by 0.1%.     

Do Teaser-Rate Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Make Owner-Occupied Housing More Affordable?

In this paper, we estimate the structural parameters of an aggregate housing demand curve and the relationship between ARM teaser rates and house prices using a simultaneous-equation Tobit model. The data come primarily from the Federal Housing Finance Board monthly interest rate survey in May of 1987-1989. The empirical results suggest that teaser ARMs produce significant price distortions in local housing markets. These price distortions ameliorate housing affordability for teaser ARM borrowers and worsen affordability problems for all other homebuyers.     

Rent control and homelessness

The purposes of this paper are to produce more precise estimates of the effect of rent control on homelessness using microdata on housed and homeless households and to provide evidence concerning the mechanisms through which rent control might affect homelessness. Our results suggest that rent control does increase homelessness by decreasing the rental vacancy rate and increasing the rental price of housing in the uncontrolled sector but that these effects of rent control are offset by other effects that decrease homelessness. We cannot reject the hypothesis that rent control has no net effect on homelessness.     

Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach

This paper uses quantile regression methods where a hedonic equation is estimated for each quantile of the conditional distribution of housing prices. The survey data are used to investigate the relationship between house prices and housing characteristics in Istanbul. This data set includes some housing characteristics of the dwellings like numbers of room, bathroom, heating system, location of house etc. In the results of this paper show some similarities and differences from earlier studies on housing prices. We find that age, cable tv, security, heating system, garage, kitchen area, increasing numbers of room and bathroom increase the house prices. Our findings also show that side variable which is a special factor for Istanbul real estate market has negative effect on the prices. It is clear that the factors of housing prices can change because of the properties of country, region or city. The results of this study may give some important interpretations for developing real estate market.     

Tent City: Patterns of Informality and the Partitioning of Sacramento

Unsanctioned tent cities are increasing in number in cities throughout the western United States. Scholars explain the phenomenon as homeless people asserting their ‘right to the city’ or as ‘managed marginality’. These explanations capture much of the socio-political relationship between local government and homeless populations, but do not explain the long-term persistence of tent cities and the fluctuating nature of their visibility. A spatial history of informal encampments in Sacramento at three key moments—the founding of the city, the Great Depression and the Great Recession—reveals a long-term ebb and flow of tent cities occupying close-to-the-center, urban vacancies. Urban vacancies arise from the partitioning of the city into specific purposes, places and people, a taken-for-granted perception of how cities should be. The visibility of tent cities disrupts this aesthetic notion of stability and growth as homeless people use the tent to protest their isolation and exclusion.     

Homelessness in the Russian Federation: Regional and Local Context

The problem of homelessness in the Russian Federation has deep roots in history. Throughout much of the past century, it was a result of displacement of children during revolution, civil war, and wars with foreign powers. Even now, many of the economic problems that cause homelessness in Russia result from sanctions imposed by foreign governments. This article explains the roles of the state and charities in ameliorating the contemporary situation of people without housing. One of the most important programs of one charity involves providing some form of paid work to everyone in the shelters, so that residents can feel a sense of self-worth often lacking in purely charitable ventures. In the long run, no specialized programs that target the homeless can make a dent in the problem unless the state, civil society, and housing developers work together to produce more decent housing in cities and create more jobs in rural areas that are currently facing depopulation. The recent introduction of escrow accounts to reduce fraud in housing finance is already making a difference in promoting increased housing construction.     

Making the Prevention of Homelessness a Priority: The Role of Social Innovation

Mass homelessness emerged in Canada in the wake of neoliberal policies that reduced government production of housing and other supportive measures. Efforts to reduce homelessness have occurred in three stages: 1) an emergency response in the 1990s that consisted mostly of investment in shelters, soup kitchens, and day programs, 2) the implementation of community plans to end homelessness, combined with the adoption of Housing First as a strategy that seeks to provide reliable shelter as a first step to anyone without it, followed by other remedial services, and 3) the recent development in Canada of early intervention strategies to prevent homelessness from its inception. The second stage was highly successful in dealing with the situation of chronically homeless adults, and many communities have begun to see reductions in homelessness. However effective, this approach does not break the cycle by intercepting potentially homeless individuals in their youth, which is when it begins for many people. Canada is at the beginning stages of the move towards a stronger focus on prevention, aided by a social innovation agenda to identify, design, test, and evaluate preventive interventions to determine which ones will be most strategically effective, setting the stage for implementation and going to scale.     

城市商品住宅价格水平影响因素研究

商品住宅价格问题是社会关注的焦点问题.以全国35个重点城市1999年-2005年数据为基础,研究城市住宅价格水平的影响因素.研究显示,代表城市经济发展水平和居民收入水平、单位面积土地投入、城市区位和城市环境等侧面的职工平均工资、单位面积固定资产投资、人均铺装道路面积、距海岸线的距离、通过城市的国道数量、建成区绿化覆盖率这6个因素是影响城市住宅价格水平的主要因素.可以预期,当一个城市的这些因素发生相对变化和绝对变化的时候,城市的住宅价格水平必然会发生相应的变化.阳光充足、水资源丰富、交通便捷的近海地区城市的商品住宅价格变动幅度会由于经济发展、人口增加、区住条件进一步优化、投入加大等各种条件的较大变化而高于其他城市.     

Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market

The question of whether or not the housing market is efficient is posed by an increasing number of economists, policymakers, homebuyers, and homesellers. This article tests the efficiency hypothesis on data from the housing market in Oslo over the period 1991–2002, employing the Case–Shiller time-structure test on a repeat-sales house price index and returns to housing. We demonstrate that both the repeat-sales house price index and returns contain time structure and that the housing market is characterized by inefficiencies. We also find, surprisingly, that the housing market consistently yields higher appreciation at lower volatility than the stock market over the period.     

The down-payment constraint and UK housing market: Does the theory fit the facts?

This paper considers empirical implications of the down-payment constraint for the UK housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate-level, models of the housing market with this constraint are consistent with a number of stylized facts. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets and considers how leverage affects the response of house price inflation to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993–2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high leverage (loan-to-value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model.     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

中国住宅市场羊群效应的比较测度——基于省际动态面板数据模型的实证研究

运用行为经济学中的羊群效应理论,利用动态面板数据,从地区和时期两个维度对我国住宅市场展开研究。结果表明：羊群效应在我国全国范围内的住宅市场普遍存在,但其实际程度又和所在地区的市场信息环境和所处时期的政策导向有关,具体而言东部地区和西部地区的住宅市场羊群效应显著,而中部地区则不显著,政策环境从宽松向紧缩的转化会带来住宅市场羊群效应程度的增加,但东部地区的增加幅度要高于西部地区。相关结论对遏制住宅市场羊群效应和推动住宅市场健康发展有很强的政策启示。     

Housing demand in Mexico

This paper analyzes the components of housing demand in Mexico in the context of developing and developed nations. The case of Mexico is particularly interesting given that population and income dynamics, as well as current housing shortages, suggest that the demand for housing will significantly increase in the near future. We use micro-level data from market-based mortgages that originated during the period of 2002 to 2004 for 21 metropolitan areas in Mexico. We find the price elasticity of housing demand to be ?0.3, lower than previous studies for developed countries and within the range for developing countries. Permanent income is a major component of housing demand, with an elasticity of 0.8. In contrast, temporary income has a very low elasticity of 0.04. The mortgage rate elasticity for 25-year mortgages is ?0.39. We believe these results provide important information to policy makers and practitioners in Mexico and other developing nations.     

When should homeless families get subsidized apartments? A theoretical inquiry

How and when should operators of homeless shelters place families from these shelters into subsidized housing? I apply the tools of contract theory to this problem, especially some approaches that have been taken to optimal unemployment insurance. The problem combines moral hazard and adverse selection. When all families are drawn from the same distribution, placement should occur immediately. When families are heterogeneous, the optimal strategy creates a separating equilibrium. Good searchers self-select into a contract with high probability of immediate placement and no probability of later placement; poorer searchers self-select into a contract with a lower probability of immediate placement but a positive probability of later placement.