Innis Lecture: Environmental crises: past, present, and future

Abstract .  Environmental crises are distinguished by rapid and largely unexpected changes in environmental quality that are difficult if not impossible to reverse. Examples would be major extinctions and significant degradations of an ecosystem. I argue there are three preconditions for crisis: failures in governance, an ecological system exhibiting a tipping point, and an economy/environment interaction with positive feedbacks. I develop a simple model to illustrate how a crisis may arise, and draw on our knowledge of past and present crises to highlight the mechanisms involved. I then speculate as to whether climate change is indeed a crisis in the making.     

农村劳动力流动的过去、现在和未来

回顾新中国成立以来农村劳动力流动的历史,世界上还没有哪个国家像中国一样,在推进现代化过程中,伴随如此大规模人口的迁移,并且在今后很长一段时间还将继续保持,并指出农村劳动力流动对中国的经济崛起发挥了重要作用。而当前农村劳动力转移也在发生变化,这是基于中国的政策变迁、地方政府行为和劳动者自身行为的变化所导致的。未来中国的城市化和工业化能否深度推进,农村劳动力流动起着重要作用。适时调整政策以适应农村劳动力流动的变迁将是对中国政府新的考验,如果成功,将走出中国独特的农村劳动力迁移道路。     

Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future

This study presents an overview of modern field experiments and their usage in economics. Our discussion focuses on three distinct periods of field experimentation that have influenced the economics literature. The first might well be thought of as the dawn of “field” experimentation: the work of Neyman and Fisher, who laid the experimental foundation in the 1920s and 1930s by conceptualizing randomization as an instrument to achieve identification via experimentation with agricultural plots. The second, the large-scale social experiments conducted by government agencies in the mid-twentieth century, moved the exploration from plots of land to groups of individuals. More recently, the nature and range of field experiments has expanded, with a diverse set of controlled experiments being completed outside of the typical laboratory environment. With this growth, the number and types of questions that can be explored using field experiments has grown tremendously. After discussing these three distinct phases, we speculate on the future of field experimental methods, a future that we envision including a strong collaborative effort with outside parties, most importantly private entities.     

Portuguese Economic Journal,past and future

Portuguese Economic Journal - This article is a contribution to the history of the creation of the PEJ, officially launched in 1999. It bears witness to the context in which research in economics...     

Choosing a future based on the past: Institutions,behavior, and path dependence

Institutions do not always produce behavior consistent with what theory predicts, leading comparative scholars to turn to explanations based on historical or cultural exceptionalism. Context can influence not only how an institution performs but also the very choices of institutions that societies choose to govern themselves. In this paper, we construct a model that produces contextual effects that result in institutional path dependence. In doing so, we provide formal foundations for qualitative arguments that context matters and identify a contributing causal mechanism: behavioral spillovers. Using both mathematical and computational techniques, we show that spillovers provide a mechanistic explanation for how pre-existing institutions affect the performance of new institutions as well as the optimal choice among institutions. We find that these spillovers can depend on either the set or the path of previous institutions. Both results support qualitative arguments that historical institutional contexts influence outcomes in current institutions. Importantly, the spillovers depend not only on the outcomes produced in the institutions but also on the specific behavior that produces the outcomes. As a result, we show that institutions that create diverse ensembles of behaviors generate better outcomes and less path dependence than those that cause all agents to converge on the identical strategy.     

Talking in the present,caring for the future: Language and environment

This paper identifies a new source that explains environmental behaviour: the presence of future tense marking in language. We predict that languages that grammatically mark the future affect speakers’ intertemporal preferences and thereby reduce their willingness to address environmental problems. We first show that speakers of languages with future tense marking are less likely to adopt environmentally responsible behaviours and to support policies to prevent environmental damage. We then document that this effect holds across countries: future tense marking is an important determinant of climate change policies and global environmental cooperation. The results suggest that there may be deep and surprising obstacles for attempts to address climate change.     

The past and future of knowledge-based growth

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This “population-productivity reversal” explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.     

Medicare reform: fundamental problems, incremental steps.

This paper presents an overview of the Medicare reform debate. I begin by reviewing some of the features of Medicare and then turn to a discussion of reforms, both on the benefits side and on the financing side of the program. The reform proposals raise difficult policy and political issues, and could have important implications for the federal budget, the efficiency of the health sector, and the well-being of the elderly and disabled.     

Policy watch: Medicare.

Public policies are often made without much recourse to economic reasoning. Economists are sometimes unaware of what is happening in the world of public affairs. As a result, both the quality of public decision making and the role that economists play in it are less than optimal. This feature contains short articles on topics that are currently on the agendas of policymakers, thus illustrating the role of economic analysis in illuminating current debates. Suggestions for future columns and comments on past ones should be sent to Daniel Weinberg, c/o Journal of Economic Perspectives, HHES Division, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233.     

The Delphi technique: Past, present, and future prospects — Introduction to the special issue

The Delphi technique has been around for over half a century, so now seems a proper time to consider its past, present and future. This introduction characterises the papers in this special Delphi issue, which include both conceptual and empirical works. It summarises the main lessons that have been learned from these for the conduct of the technique, and provides a call for more and better empirical studies in the future.     

An update on the future of Medicare in Canada

In Canada, as in most other nations, the health care system faces many challenges. The experience of New Brunswick may foreshadow changes to come.     

美国的公允价值研究:现状、问题与未来方向

美国的公允价值计量研究仍然存在诸多不足甚至错误,表现在公允价值定义与财务会计概念公告冲突、价值与价格混淆、对公允价值的本质认识不准确、计量重点把握不当、公允价值理论体系混乱复杂等多个方面。美国公允价值研究的真正突破表现在:(1)对公允价值可靠性认识态度发生了悄然转变;(2)明确提倡价值计量,为澄清价值计量属性和货币计量单位提供了契机;(3)提出了后续计量概念,这是会计动态反映观的开始。这三个方面的突破,实际上暗示了公允价值会计未来的发展方向和突破点。