比较优势战略与赶超战略的选择与思考

加入世界贸易组织后中国经济的发展战略问题倍受关注，且存在比较优势战略和赶超战略的争论，二者都主张利用动态比较优势，但却选择了不同的发展路径。本文分析了比较优势战略的合理性和赶超战略的缺陷，认为目前中国尚不具备以发展高科技产业为发展战略的条件，在不具备条件的情况下实施赶超只能欲速则不达，导致资源的浪费，不利于要素禀赋结构的改善，抑制比较优势的发挥。比较优势的发展战略符合中国的实际，中国的劳动力的比较优势尚未充分发挥出来，入世后继续发展劳动密集型产业或高科技产业链条上的劳动密集型产品的生产。利用比较优势发展中国经济的关键在于提高劳动力素质，将丰富的人力资源转化为人力资本，为此中国应加大教育的投入，在用人机制上进行制度创新。这样才能实现资源优化配置基础上的比较优势的动态化，逐步实现技术进步和产业升级。     

剖析当代发展中国家比较优势战略的不适用性

现代市场经济制度、科技创新能力和人力资本是当代国家竞争力的决定因素,当代发展中国家发挥自然资源和劳动力的比较优势的发展战略是不可取的。发展中国家应结合国情和国际竞争新环境的要求,在学习和创新基础上创造和积累市场制度、科技创新、人力资本的后天优势,促进全面跨越式发展。我国必须转变发展方式,强化自主高效可持续发展的长效机制,促进赶超。     

产业规模与比较优势发展战略:一个理论框架

本文根据经典的国际贸易理论发现,对于发展中国家,实行自由贸易的结果是两大产业的技术水平都上升,但劳动密集产业的规模扩张,而资本密集产业的规模收缩.因此,主要从产业规模角度、同时结合技术角度的分析,在理论上更为全面,政策上也更具可行性.据此,文章着重在比较优势的框架内探讨了产业规模、就业与技术三者间的相互影响机制,提出了在战略选择上的两个"两难选择",并认为比较优势发展战略能够较好地解决这两个"两难选择".     

比较优势理论与经济发展

文章对比较优势理论进行了理论分析和实证研究,提出只有充分发挥比较优势才能提升一国的产业结构,充分发挥比较优势战略可以保证公平与效率的统一,阐述了我国实现比较优势战略的途径选择。     

比较优势、竞争优势与中国贸易战略

长期以来,比较优势理论是解释国际贸易利益和国际分工的基本理论。国际交换之所以必要,是因为存在国际分工,国际分工使得各个国家专业化生产最适合本国生产的产品,通过国际贸易可使贸易双方获得更大的福利。从亚当．斯密的绝对成本论、李嘉图的比较成本论到俄林的要素禀赋论,比较优势理论形成了完整的体系。     

对现代比较优势理论的三点质疑

现代比较优势是现代贸易理论的重要组成部分,该理论指出各国应该按照自己的要素禀赋来专业化生产本国充裕资源密集型产品,并以之交换本国稀缺资源密度型的产品,通过贸易而使双方获益。对于这一结论,本文提出了三点质疑,强调是技术水平而不是资源禀赋决定了一个国家的优势,现代比较优势理论掩盖了国家之间技术水平的差距和技术垄断的存在,从而不能有效地解释国际贸易的模式和贸易剩余的分割问题。并指出现代比较优势所宣扬的国际分工格局和自由贸易政策实际上是发达国家剥削发展中国家的工具。     

比较优势理论及其研究进展

古典比较优势理论在两个核心概念和四个基本定理的框架下,经过需求相似理论、产业内贸易理论、中间产品模型等新贸易理论的补充,已形成基本完善的理论架构,但实证分析并不完全支持其适用性。发展中国家学者从长期考察,对这一理论的指导作用持谨慎态度。     

比较优势战略下的资本积累陷阱

长期以来,比较优势战略理论主导了中国的经济发展思路。该理论把经济发展的过程理解为资本积累的过程,因此将自生能力作为资源配置的标准,要求所发展的产业具有立即的成本优势,能够仅靠自身就迅速盈利从而提供积累。该理论宣称成本优势来源于要素禀赋比较优势,中国的优势在于劳动力丰富而廉价,所以中国应立足于国际分工,通过引进技术与资本品,主要发展低工资的劳动密集型产业,这样资本积累速度快,经济发展效果好。     

我国的基础设施对比较优势的影响研究

笔者依据1984年～2007年中国工业各行业的数据,检验了交通、通讯、电力等基础设施等对我国比较优势的影响.研究结果表明:在样本期间,交通、通讯基础设施对比较优势的影响不明显;电力基础设施增长率对于制造业各类行业的比较优势的提升则相当重要,尤其是对于资本品和重工业中间产品行业.     

中国区域比较优势动态变化的影响因素分析

本文研究1985—2007年我国各省区及东、中、西三大地区资源密集型行业、劳动密集型行业和资本技术密集型行业比较优势是否随着要素禀赋结构的变化实现动态升级,并采动态面板数据的系统GMM估计方法分析各要素对不同类型行业比较优势的影响。研究发现,只有浙江、上海、天津、江苏、福建、四川、湖北7个省区的比较优势实现了动态升级,东、中、西部三大地区的比较优势行业没有实现升级;中西部地区的资本积累、外商直接投资和规模经济使其资源密集型行业的比较优势地位进一步强化,东部地区的这些要素使其劳动密集型行业和资本技术密集型行业的比较优势进一步提高;人力资本水平的提高有利于中西部劳动密集型行业和资本技术密集型行业专业化水平的提升。     

“极化陷阱”之谜及其经济学解释

我国区域差距扩大的困境集中表现为增长极点极化过度和扩散不足并存所引致的"极化陷阱".从经济学理论来看,非平衡战略福利判别标准中补偿机制的内在冲突是极化陷阱形成的深层原因.以区域差距的分类为基础,补偿机制分为结构性补偿和功能性补偿两种类型.对增长极的过分重视导致了对结构性补偿的偏好,然而结构性补偿所带来的协调空间正在减弱,以全要素生产率增长为基础的功能性协调将成为区域协调的主要力量.因此,形成结构性协调与功能性协调的互补将在促进区域协调发展的同时弱化"极化陷阱"的困境.     

我国开发区的发展方略

开发区作为我国对外开放的重要组成部分和具体形式,在推进我国社会主义现代化建设中发挥了重要作用。我国加入WTO之后,意味着国内市场纳入世界统一大市场之中。如何重新审视我国开发区的目标定位,并从宏观、中观及微观的不同层面制订或调整与实施     

Communications networks and virtual economic integration: The case of three countries

This paper proposes a three-country model of trade that captures the role of communications networks which enhance trade in business services. The interconnectivity of country-specific networks is found to determine the structure of comparative advantage in the good that requires business services provided via networks. In connected countries, producers of that good benefit from the growing connectivity of business services providers. It is also shown that the third country which is unconnected to the interconnected networks may be worse off from trade.The first author is grateful for the support of the Telecommunications Advancement Foundation.     

新经济环境下的企业知识管理战略

知识管理战略成为21世纪新经济形势下企业战略管理的新趋势，其本质在于提升企业的动态能力，以突破企业核心刚性的存在给企业带来的思维惯性及组织智障，通过社会化、外显化、内隐化、综合化的知识管理手段提高企业的创新能力以及适应环境变化的应变能力。在实施知识管理战略的过程中，把握知识管理的核心问题，以系统思想全面思考知识管理体系的建设，为企业赢得可持续发展的竞争优势。     

Dominant strategy implementation in economic environments

We study dominant strategy implementation especially in economic environments. We first show that in general environments, strategy-proofness and quasi-strong-non-bossiness together are necessary and sufficient for dominant strategy implementation via the associated direct revelation mechanism. We next prove that in weak separable environments, strategy-proofness is sufficient for dominant strategy implementation, by using an augmented revelation mechanism similar to the one devised by Jackson, Palfrey, and Srivastava [Jackson, M.O., Palfrey, T.R., Srivastava, S., 1994. Undominated Nash implementation in bounded mechanisms. Games Econ. Behav. 6, 474–501]. Moreover, we focus on pure exchange economies without free disposal, and try to construct another augmented revelation mechanism that satisfies balancedness in and out of equilibrium, and which implements all strategy-proof social choice functions in dominant strategy equilibria.     

The effect on income distribution of development,the growth rate and economic strategy

An analysis of cross-section and time series data for 83 countries confirms some, and contradicts other work on income distribution. New findings include: a dualistic socio-political system is highly unfavorable for equality. Neither the extent of government intervention in the economy nor the rate of manufactured exports are systematically related to income distribution. The analysis confirms that there is no systematic relationship between equality and the rate of economic growth. Educational participation and a reduction in the share of primary exports in GDP are both favorable for equality. There is some support for the Kuznets hypothesis that inequality increases as per capita income rises to about $400 and then declines, with further income increase, but the empirical support is not strong and may be weakening over time. These findings lead to more optimistic conclusions then other work: that rapid growth in a mixed economy is quite consistent with unchanged, or even improved, income distribution, even at early stages of development.     

Agricultural impacts on water quality and implications for virtual water trading decisions

Research on the flow of virtual water associated with agricultural crop production and trade has focussed almost entirely on water quantity. It is pertinent to consider and quantify the opportunity costs in terms of reduced water quality associated with crop production. This paper investigates the impacts of water quality on virtual water trading by creating a proxy for water quality impacts by calculating the amount of water required to dilute nonpoint-source agrochemical inputs to relevant water quality guideline values. The quantity of water required for dilution of five agrochemicals (two nutrients; nitrogen and phosphorus and three insecticides; azinphos-methyl, chlorpyrifos and endosulfan) was estimated for five crops in South Africa (maize, wheat, sugar cane, citrus and cotton) and compared to consumption of irrigation water (blue water) and rainfall (green water) for the same crops. Results indicate that the volume of water required for dilution is similar to the total sum of green and blue water required for crop production, but significantly greater than blue water use (irrigation use). For all crops phosphorus losses require greater amounts of water for dilution than for nitrogen, while pesticides result in the greatest water quality use. Estimates of water quality use are based on assumptions for a number of input variables (i.e. fertilizer application rates, percentage loss of agrochemicals from cropped areas). A Monte Carlo analysis (5000 iterations) was run to randomly select input variables from within defined ranges. Water quality use was calculated and expressed as a factor of blue water use. For all crops the average factor indicated that the volume of water required for dilution of all agrochemicals was greater than that required for irrigation. The results of this study clearly indicate that the impacts of agriculture on water quality need to be considered in virtual water trading scenarios. The incorporation of a method to predict impacts on water quality provides a comparative tool which generates a more holistic frame of reference for decision making with regard to impacts on the water resource and virtual water trading.     

我国经济增长与就业增长非一致性的制度解释及制度安排

经济增长与就业增长之间的一致性是西方发达国家经济发展的一个基本经验,而我国在制度转型中经济增长与就业增长出现了不一致或就业弹性偏低的现象,本文从制度的角度对这一现象进行了解释。政府政绩评价制度、收入分配制度、产权制度和人力资本制度等问题作出新的安排。     

制定中国区域经济合作总体战略的思考

当前,以区域贸易协定(RTA)为代表的双边或区域贸易自由化的谈判不仅发展迅速,并且超出了原来的内涵,体现出各经济体对贸易自由化的认可和实现贸易自由化的愿望。中国参与区域经济合作的进展情况从双边角度看,自2001年我国倡议与东盟10国建立中国-东盟自由贸易区以来,我国已经与20多个经济体签订了自由贸易协定、或者正在开展建立自由贸易区的谈判。这些国家和地区包括与东盟10国的FTA,与我国的香港、澳门特别行政区的CEPA,正在与澳大利亚、新西兰、智利、海湾合作委员会(GCC)6国、南部非洲关税同盟(SACU)5国以及印度、巴基斯坦、冰岛…