Influence Diagrams for Causal Modelling and Inference

We consider a variety of ways in which probabilistic and causal models can be represented in graphical form. By adding nodes to our graphs to represent parameters, decision, etc ., we obtain a generalisation of influence diagrams that supports meaningful causal modelling and inference, and only requires concepts and methods that are already standard in the purely probabilistic case. We relate our representations to others, particularly functional models, and present arguments and examples in favour of their superiority.     

The Timing of International Expansion: Information, Rivalry and Imitation Among Japanese Firms, 1980–2002

abstract    Sociological-based information theory and economics-based competitive rivalry theory operate as the dominant theories of interorganizational mimetic behaviour. Recent work has sought to integrate the ideas in these theories, or determine which has greater explanatory power. In this study, we juxtapose the concepts in these two theories, to illustrate the complementary nature of information-based and rivalry-based theories of mimetic behaviour. Specifically, we consider how the predictions of information-based theories are moderated by the home competitive context of the industry of a firm making an international expansion. Using a 1980 to 2002 sample of 4949 manufacturing plant entries made into 71 foreign countries by 783 publicly-listed Japanese manufacturing firms, we find that the competitive context in the home industry influences the propensity of a focal firm to imitate the actions of rival firms. Our results support our contention that the two theoretical approaches are complementary, with the complementarities extending from the limitations of each approach.     

Tolstoy's Georgist spiritual Political Economy (1897–1910): Anarchism and Land Reform

A bstract . Following Lev Nikolaevich Tolstoy's spiritual crisis in the late 1870s many had come to regard him as a "crackpot anarchist" espousing odd ideas such as vegetarianism, nonresistance, and a doctrine of love. The death of his friend Henry George in 1897 spurred him on to renewed endeavors. Tolstoy became the world's most noteworthy exponent of the American's ideology, which integrated his previously diffuse commitments. Armed with his universal moral and religious beliefs harmoniously and gently forged with Georgist philosophy, he became the conscience of the world. It was a monumental effort to ground justice in a rational economics and spread enlightenment for the benefit of suffering people.¹