THE REAL INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE BASED ON NON-LINEAR UNIT ROOT TESTS

This paper aims at testing international parity conditions by using non-linear unit root tests advocated by Kapetanios et al . (2003, KSS). Results from the KSS tests based on 17 countries (G7 and 10 Asian countries) overwhelmingly show that the adjustment of real interest rates towards real interest rate parity (RIP) follows a non-linear process except for the Taiwan, Hong Kong and Philippines relationships with both the USA and Japan. Overall, the empirical results are in favour of RIP using the USA and Japan as the centre countries but only if non-linearities are accounted for in the data-generating process. Our findings confirm that interest rate differentials, like the real exchange rates reported in recent literature, display a non-linear mean reversion process.     

Real interest rate parity in Asian countries: evidence from the quantile unit root test

This article studies the real interest rate parity (RIP) for several Asian countries. This is done by examining the stationarity in the real interest rate differentials (rids) with respect to the US using the quantile unit root test. Our results show that rids exhibits unit-root behaviours in the lower quantile levels, and mean reversion in the upper quantile levels. Furthermore, large positive shocks tend to induce strong mean reversion and the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium level is faster as rids gets larger, with shorter half-lives in the extreme quantile levels.     

Inflation-targeting and real interest rate parity: A bias correction approach

This paper investigates whether inflation-targeting influences real interest rate parity (RIP) by a bias correction approach under cross-sectional dependence. The recursive mean adjustment (RMA) method proposed by So and Shin (1999) and Shin and So (2001) is employed to correct the downward bias in the panel unit root tests and in the half-life estimates of real interest rate differentials for traded and non-traded goods. The empirical findings differ depending on whether we apply the RMA. More importantly, the empirical results show that as more homogeneous economies become involved in terms of inflation-targeting regime, stronger mean reversion and much a tighter confidence interval are present. Thus, inflation-targeting plays an important role in providing favorable evidence for long-run RIP.     

Measuring the end of the European financial crisis

In 2013 it was declared that ‘the eurozone crisis is over’. However, in fact, the series of financial crises since 2008 may have interrupted the process of EMU enlargement, which in turn triggered a continuing crisis of confidence in the euro. In this paper we extend the sigma‐convergence test to provide a more precise understanding of real interest rate parity (RIP) convergence. On the basis of this, we predict the timing for eliminating the cost of economic asymmetric shocks. Our estimation indicates the RIP among EMU members and accessions were still valid after the disruptions of the 2008 financial crisis. However, the situation has been even worse since the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, and ceteris paribus, symmetry cannot be achieved without further policy actions. This implies that the EMU authority must do its best to strengthen symmetry and thereby solidify the EMU, at which point it will be better able to re‐start the process of enlargement.     

A RE‐EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND‐GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS

This study applies ‘old’ and ‘new’ second‐generation panel unit root tests to check the validity of the long‐run real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis for ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) with respect to the Euro area and an average of the CEECs’ real interest rates. When the ‘new’ panel unit root tests are carried out relative to the Euro area rate as reference, we confirm the results of previous studies that support the RIP hypothesis, and the results of the ‘old’ tests used as a benchmark. Nevertheless, when the ‘new’ tests are performed using the average of the CEECs’ rate as reference, our results are mitigated, revealing that the hypothesis of CEECs’ interest rates convergence cannot be taken for granted. From a robustness analysis perspective, our findings indicate that the RIP hypothesis for CEECs should be considered with caution, because the RIP hypothesis is sensitive to the retained reference rate for computing the real interest rate differential, and also to the retained countries in the sample.     

Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies

The interaction between the exchange rate regime and macroeconomic stabilization in several transition economies during 1990–1996 was influenced by the persistence of high inflation rates and the initial disequilibrium between the highly undervalued nominal exchange rates in relation to their purchasing power parity estimates. Policymakers generally adopted the flexible (nominal) exchange rate regimes for manipulating real exchange rates with a view to correcting the exchange rate disequilibrium and conveying inflation control signals. The rates of real appreciation were higher in the earlier years of high inflation rates. By 1996, lower inflation rates required less currency appreciations thereby reducing the negative impact of the latter on trade competitiveness. However, the persistence of unwarranted interest rate differentials, a consequence of the domination of monetary control over prudent fiscal management, and the associated inflows of foreign funds put an upward pressure on exchange rates exacerbating trade competitiveness. The transition record suggests that innovative exchange rate arrangements can provide only a brief interval during which sound fiscal discipline needs to be put in place for controlling inflation.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 621–641. Columbia University, New York, New York 10027.     

中国实际利率平价的KSS非线性单位根检验

中国一直在进行资本和金融项目的渐进改革,通常描述和刻画这一经济规律变化的是利率平价理论。由于近十几年限制我国利率平价的制度约束条件均得到缓解,所以,本文利用基于ESTAR结构的KSS非线性单位根检验分析法,并连同ADF和PP检验一起对我国实际利率平价进行了实证,检验结果表明,实际利率平价假说成立,并遵循非线性稳态过程,利率的非对称调整导致信贷市场和金融市场的信息不对称。这说明短期内实际利率的调整特征是平滑转移的,在长期内,双边国家均无法实施相对独立的货币政策。     

Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach

This paper models logistic and exponential smooth transition adjustments of real exchange rates for six major oil-exporting countries in response to different shocks affecting oil prices. The logistic form captures asymmetric and the exponential form symmetric adjustments in regards to positive and negative oil price shocks. We chose oil-exporting countries that do not peg their exchange rates. For most countries, we detect no statistically significant non-linearities for the adjustment process of real exchange rate returns, be they asymmetric or symmetric, in response to oil supply shocks, idiosyncratic oil-market-specific shocks, and speculative oil-market shocks. Exceptions are oil supply shocks in the UK and possibly Brazil, where exchange rates respond nonlinearly, though the effects are symmetric for both countries. On the other hand, global aggregate demand shocks, which are shocks not originating directly in the oil market, have nonlinear asymmetric effects on real exchange rate returns for Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia, and nonlinear symmetric effects for Brazil and the UK.     

Integration or Independence? An Alternative Assessment of Real Interest Rate Linkages in the European Union

The relationship between national real interest rates provides a valuable insight into the extent of economic and financial integration between countries. This paper tests for long‐run parity in ex post real interest rates among the major European Union (EU) countries over the period 1979–2003. The empirical investigation, however, is based on an alternative approach. Strong parity is determined by whether or not the first largest principal component (LPC), based on real interest rate differentials with respect to a chosen base country, is stationary. The qualitative outcome of the test is invariant to the choice of base country, and compared with alternative multivariate tests for long‐run parity, this methodology places less demands on limited data sets. Strong evidence of onshore parity occurs during 1979–1990 and 1993–2003 with the half‐life of a deviation to parity that varies towards 6 months. There is no evidence of long‐run parity among EU members during 1990–1993 despite the easing of remaining capital controls in 1990. Parity is rejected for a sample of non‐EU countries throughout the study period.     

On the Joint Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex‐ante Purchasing Power Parity

This study revisits the relation between the uncovered interest parity (UIP), the ex‐ante purchasing power parity (EXPPP) and the real interest parity (RIP) for the UK and Japanese vs US data. The original contribution is on developing some joint coefficient‐based tests, obtained by rewriting the UIP, the EXPPP and the RIP as a set of cross‐equation restrictions in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. Test results point to a “forward premium” bias in both the UIP and the EXPPP. The latter result is novel in the literature and stems from testing the PPP in expectational terms. Moreover, the results suggest a currency‐dependent pattern for the UIP, contrarily to the EXPPP equation. Finally, it is shown that conditioning the VAR on M3 growth differential has important explanatory power in resolving the aforementioned biases in both the UIP and EXPPP equations for the UK vs US data. At the same time, variables having a strong forward‐looking component (i.e. share prices) help recover a unitary coefficient in the UIP equation.     

Reconsidering Real Interest Parity for Traded and Nontraded Goods

The goal of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of real interest rate parity by contrasting real interest rates across traded and nontraded goods under flexible exchange rates. We employ panel unit root tests to investigate the stationarity of real interest rate differentials. In particular, empirical results support the mean‐reverting property of real interest rate differentials for interest rates measured in terms of traded goods.     

Nonlinear Phillips curve,NAIRU and monetary policy rules

The US Phillips curve is modeled with a logistic smooth transition autoregression specification that allows various nonlinear shapes. Using this, the paper derives model-consistent estimates of the NAIRU. The NAIRU is defined as the level of unemployment rate that would correspond to a forecast of no inflation changes over the policy horizon. This paper also investigates the implications of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve for deriving optimal monetary policy rules. The optimal policy rule for interest rates and implied sacrifice ratios are found to be nonlinear as well.      

Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison

We analyze exchange rate volatility in the Visegrad Four countries during the period in which they abandoned tight regimes for more flexible ones. We account for path dependency, asymmetric shocks, and movements in interest rates. In addition, we allow for a generalized error distribution. The overall findings are that path-dependent volatility has a limited effect on exchange rate developments and that the introduction of floating regimes tends to increase exchange rate volatility. During the period of flexible regimes, volatility was mainly driven by surprises. Asymmetric effects of news tend to decrease volatility under the floating regime. Interest differentials impact exchange rate volatility contemporaneously under either regime, although we find no intertemporal effect of interest differentials. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 727–753.     

Modelling nonlinearity in U.S. Gross national product 1889–1987

This paper considers modelling the annual logarithmed per capita gross national product of the United States in 1889–1987. Some authors have suggested that the parameters of the process generating the data have changed over time but formal parameter constancy tests do not support this argument. The series turns out to be nonlinear and can be adequately characterized by an exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. For comparison, a detrended series is also considered, found nonlinear and modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. The behaviour of the estimated models is discussed, and it is seen that nonlinearity is needed to describe the response of the process to exceptionally large exogenous shocks. The properties of the models are further investigated by forecasting several years ahead, and the forecasts are compared with those from other linear and nonlinear models.     

Agricultural and monetary shocks before the great depression: A graph-theoretic causal investigation

This paper uses graph-theoretic methods to investigate the causal relationships between agriculture, money, interest rates, prices, and real GDP in 12 countries during the years 1869–1929. We find that agricultural production directly and indirectly causes real GDP in two-thirds of the cases. Monetary shocks also play an important causal role in about half the cases, but unlike agriculture, the causal links are usually indirect through other variables to real GDP. The direct causal link between money and prices is also particularly strong. Between 1869 and 1929, money causes prices in nearly all of the countries in the sample.     

The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows

International financial arbitrage should prevent the existence of non-zero expected returns when borrowing in one currency and lending in another implying that interest differentials should predict exchange rate movements. The failure of interest differentials to act as an unbiased predictor of future exchange rate movements is referred to as the uncovered interest parity puzzle. This paper explores whether capital flows respond to these interest differentials in the context of a model in which dynamic adjustment costs keep capital from flowing immediately across borders. The paper finds little or even a negative relationship between expected excess returns on exchange rate adjusted U.S. money market rates (relative to domestic interest rates) and capital flows to the U.S. from Australia, Canada, Japan or Korea.     

Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports

This paper applies smooth transition models to capture the nonlinear behavior in the imports data of six major European economies and to assess whether such nonlinearities are related to business cycle asymmetries. Two classes of switch between regimes are considered: endogenously determined transition that assumes nonlinearities are generated by idiosyncratic components specific to foreign trade, and exogenous transition based on GDP growth as a more direct indicator of the cyclical state of the economy. The results support the proposition that the dynamics of imports are nonlinear. In Belgium, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom, regimes change over the business cycle, while in Germany and Italy the switch between regimes is endogenous. National characteristics play a role in defining the position of extreme regimes, the smoothness of the transition, and local dynamics within each state.Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Lisbon, Portugal, March 10–14, 2004) and at the VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Vigo, Spain, June 3–5, 2004). The authors thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Effects of government spending shocks in China,Japan, and Korea

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the effects of government spending shocks on various key macro variables in China, Korea, and Japan using structural VAR models. The main empirical findings are as follows. Government spending multipliers of all three countries are far larger than 1 in recent years. The effectiveness of fiscal expansion has not changed markedly in China but substantially increased in Korea (after the Asian financial crisis) and Japan (during zero lower bound period). Increases in the effectiveness of fiscal expansion are associated with changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy regimes and institutions of these countries. Among the three countries, the government spending multiplier is relatively large in China but relatively small in Japan in recent years. Although the effects on exchange rate and trade balance vary across countries and sample periods, real exchange rate tends to depreciate, whereas trade balance tends to improve under flexible exchange rate regimes. Some empirical findings are consistent with standard theory, but others are not.

Abbreviations: NK: New Keynesian VAR: Vector Autoregressive ZLB: Zero Lower Bound     

Rational expectations,market shocks,and the exchange rate

The world economy has been subjected to numerous real shocks in recent years. In addition, purchasing-power parity seems to have collapsed. Critics of the monetary approach to the exchange rate have been quick to draw attention to these facts. This paper extends the basic framework of the monetary approach so that it provides a useful tool for explaining the impact of real shocks on the exchange rate and so that it is compatible with the existence of significant deviations from purchasing-power parity. The real shocks that are discussed include changes in commercial policy, the terms of trade, and productivity. It is demonstrated that real shocks influence the exchange rate through two distinct channels—a real-income channel and a deviations from purchasing-power-parity channel.     

Real Wage and Nominal Shock: Evidence from Pacific-Rim Countries

This paper examines aggregate real-wage responses to nominal shocks in four Pacific-rim countries utilizing a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. In this study, positive real-wage responses are found in Japan and New Zealand whereas negative responses are found in Australia and Korea. In the transmission of nominal shocks to real economic activities, the findings show a sticky-price model to be more important in Japan and New Zealand, while a sticky-wage model plays the more dominant role in Australia and Korea.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 54th International Atlantic Economic Conference in Washington, D.C., October 10–13, 2002. The author would like to thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are attributed to the author.