中国货物贸易与服务贸易互动效果研究

就日前世界贸易形势来看，虽然服务贸易的相对份额不断提高，但货物贸易仍居主导地位。因此，货物贸易仍在世界贸易进出口结构中占据晕要地位。与此同时，伴随着全球产业结构的服务化趋向及服务贸易的自由化制度安排，     

中国货物贸易与服务贸易互动效果研究

就日前世界贸易形势来看，虽然服务贸易的相对份额不断提高，但货物贸易仍居主导地位。因此，货物贸易仍在世界贸易进出口结构中占据晕要地位。与此同时，伴随着全球产业结构的服务化趋向及服务贸易的自由化制度安排，     

货物贸易与服务贸易发展的动态关系研究——基于143个国家1982—2008年数据的实证分析

随着经济全球化的深入发展,服务贸易在全球贸易总量中的比重不断扩大,服务贸易已逐渐成为一国经济增长的新动力及大国之间竞争的焦点。本文利用143个国家1982—2008年的贸易总量及结构的差额数据,考察货物贸易差额与服务贸易差额之间的长期动态关系,并进一步分析服务贸易对货物贸易发展的短期及长期效应。结果表明,第一,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,一国服务贸易的发展短期能够直接带动货物贸易的迅速发展,长期则有利于推动一国产业结构、技术结构以及贸易结构的升级;第二,长期带来的结构升级主要来源于生产者服务在货物生产过程中的广泛使用;第三,发达国家服务贸易发展对货物贸易发展的短期促进效应及长期升级效应都强于发展中国家。     

中国货物贸易与服务贸易互动效果研究

就目前世界贸易形势来看,虽然服务贸易的相对份额不断提高,但货物贸易仍居主导地位。因此,货物贸易仍在世界贸易进出口结构中占据重要地位。与此同时,伴随着全球产业结构的服务化趋向及服务贸易的自由化制度安排,国际服务贸易增长态势比较强大。因此,对于正在转变经济增长方式的中国来说,研究货物贸易与服务贸易之间的互动关系具有重大现实意义。     

外商直接投资对中国双边服务贸易流量的影响研究——基于服务贸易引力模型的实证分析

基于扩展的引力模型,笔者利用中国与19个OECD国家和地区的2000年～2008年双边服务贸易和外商直接投资的面板数据,实证研究了中国吸引外资对服务贸易进出口的影响。结果显示:贸易伙伴国对中国的直接投资在一定程度上促进了服务贸易的发展,FDI存量对于服务贸易的促进作用大于FDI流量的促进作用,投资对于服务的进口引致效应大于对服务的出口创造效应。贸易伙伴国的经济发展规模、货物贸易是双边服务贸易流量的促进因素,东道国的服务贸易开放度与其服务出口成正比,相对距离则构成了双方服务贸易的阻力因素。     

中国服务贸易与货物贸易因果关系分析——基于误差修正模型的中美对比分析

运用时间序列分析和因果关系分析,对比分析中美两国各自货物贸易和服务贸易之间的延迟引导关系。协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验结果明确了中国实现服务贸易与货物贸易可持续发展的内生性难题:中国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期货物出口的增长,与美国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期服务出口的增长这一内在动力差别较大。     

消费网络外部性、文化亲近与文化产品贸易——基于中国双边文化产品贸易的实证分析

利用2002-2011年中国与35个主要文化产品贸易伙伴国和地区的面板数据,基于静、动态面板引力模型,从总类和分类两个层次对我国文化产品贸易的决定因素进行经验研究,尤其关注消费网络外部性和文化亲近所带来的影响。结果显示:文化产品消费网络外部性会通过消费偏好外溢、知识和文化外溢促进我国文化产品贸易;而文化亲近对于文化产品进出口的影响因不同的文化产品类别而有不同。因此,通过研发补贴鼓励本国文化企业创新和出口,对不同文化产品出口进行分类政策指导,积极吸收借鉴国外优秀文化成果,以开放促发展,是推动中华文化走出去的有效途径。     

要像重视货物贸易那样重视服务贸易

现代服务业，是相对于“传统服务业”而言的，它伴随信息技术的应用和信息产业的发展而出现，是信息技术与服务产业结合的产物。它具体包括两类：一类是直接因信息产业和信息化的发展而产生的新兴服务业形态，如计算机和软件服务、移动通信服务、信息咨询服务等；另一类是通过应用信息技术，从传统服务业改造和衍生而来的服务业形态，如金融、房地产、电子商务等。     

中国文化商品贸易的影响因素研究——基于引力模型和面板数据的实证分析

随着经济的发展和社会的进步,世界文化贸易得到了繁荣发展.作为一个贸易大国,中国文化商品贸易还略显不足.本文在分析了中国文化商品贸易现状的基础上,以1992-2009年中国与9个国家和地区的双边文化贸易数据为样本,利用引力模型及面板数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:对象国GDP、文化距离、贸易条件、科技应用水平、共同语言对中国文化商品贸易有正向的影响,而地理距离、共同贸易区对中国文化商品贸易有负向的影响,而中国GDP、中国及对象国的人均GDP对文化商品贸易的影响均不显著.     

中国文化商品贸易的影响因素研究--基于引力模型和面板数据的实证分析

随着经济的发展和社会的进步,世界文化贸易得到了繁荣发展。作为一个贸易大国,中国文化商品贸易还略显不足。本文在分析了中国文化商品贸易现状的基础上,以1992—2009年中国与9个国家和地区的双边文化贸易数据为样本,利用}1力模型及面板数据进行了实证分析,结果表明：对象国GDP、文化距离、贸易条件、科技应用水平、共同语言对中国文化商品贸易有正向的影响,而地理距离、共同贸易区对中国文化商品贸易有负向的影响,而中国GDP、中国及对象国的人均GDP对文化商品贸易的影响均不显著。     

The Gain from International Trade in Pool Goods and Private Goods

It is well known that perfectly competitive free trade is potentially beneficial for all countries if all goods are both rivalrous and excludable in consumption (“private goods”) and recently (2011) the proposition has been modified to accommodate non‐rivalrous and non‐excludable goods (“public goods”), as well as non‐rivalrous and excludable goods (“club goods”). In the present paper the proposition is modified again, to accommodate rivalrous and non‐excludable goods (“pool goods”). The primary focus is on ocean fisheries, access to which is shared (not necessarily equally) by all countries. However the central proposition to be established is valid for all international pool goods.     

International Trade and Commercial Policy for Durable Goods

Many commodities traded internationally are durable in nature. A dynamic durable goods oligopoly trade model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the pattern of intraindustry trade depends fundamentally on the quality or durability of the firms' output. Indeed, product durability influences the effectiveness of commercial policy. For example, as domestic product durability rises, an increase in domestic tariffs has a smaller impact on domestic production. In addition, the model uncovers a previously unrecognized avenue by which product quality standards act as a barrier to trade. The results may help explain some of the empirical anomalies found in the literature.     

我国服务和货物部门对外贸易对彼此的贡献率分析--基于1997年投入产出表及其扩展表的计算

国际服务贸易的发展与国际货物贸易密切相关,尤其是在中国这样一个国际货物贸易蓬勃发展的国家,因此,实证分析我国国际服务贸易与国际货物贸易的相互贡献程度很有必要.本文对我国服务进出口对货物部门和货物进出口对服务部门的贡献率进行了研究.从为对方生产部门增加值的形成和增长的贡献率来看,我国货物进出口对服务部门的贡献大于服务进出口对货物部门的贡献.这说明了我国对外货物贸易的蓬勃发展已经并且还会促进服务业的增长.但是,我国服务进出口对货物部门发展的贡献却相对小得多,说明我国国际服务贸易亟待发展.     

International Trade as Determined by Income and Income Distribution

Abstract

In standard trade theory, consumption is normally assumed to be homothetic. Consequently, income and its distribution have no role in determining international trade patterns. This paper examines the assumption and its implications. The assumption of homothetic preferences is rejected at the 1% level. It further demonstrates that the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model modified by allowing for non-homothetic taste improves the performance of HOV prediction and explains some of the trade puzzles and paradoxes.     

服务贸易壁垒与货物贸易壁垒的比较

20世纪90年代以来,服务业已成为全球经济增长最快的部门,全球经济竞争的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易。近年货物贸易频频遭遇的技术壁垒已经成了我国发展国际贸易的瓶颈,分析货物贸易壁垒与服务贸易壁垒的规律、异同和应对其的成本和措施,对制定国家贸易战略有着重要的现实意义。     

International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation

This paper examines the special role that trade liberalization in service industries can play in stimulating not only trade in services but also in goods. International trade in goods requires inputs from several services industries (trade services, such as transportation, insurance, and finance) in order to complete and facilitate international transactions. Restriction on the ability of national service providers to provide these services across borders and within foreign countries creates additional costs and barriers to international trade above those that would arise in otherwise comparable intranational exchange. As a result, trade liberalization in services can yield benefits, by facilitating trade in goods, that are larger than one might expect from analysis of the services trade alone. This paper explores this idea using simple theoretical models to specify the relationships between services trade and goods trade. The paper also notes the role of services trade in a model of international industrial fragmentation, where production processes can be separated across locations but at some cost in terms of additional service inputs. The incentives for such fragmentation can be larger across countries than within countries, owing to the greater differences in factor prices and technologies available. However, the service costs of international fragmentation can also be larger, especially if regulations and restrictions impede the international provision of services. As a result, trade liberalization in services can also stimulate fragmentation of production of both goods and services, thus increasing international trade and the gains from trade even further.     

Modeling Cultural Barriers in International Trade

The paper presents a model that analyzes the role of cultural differences in international trade. The decision to study foreign cultures and languages is incorporated into a simple trade model, which captures basic properties of cultural and language barriers. First, cultural costs differ from physical ones in that they can be eliminated by learning. Secondly, learning a language has economies of scale, thus smaller countries tend to invest more into learning. Thirdly, learning decisions within one country impose an externality on trading partners, since learning by one party makes communication easier also for the other one. This implies that learning decisions are in general inefficient, and the paper derives the connection between the equilibrium and optimal outcomes. Finally, because of the substitutability of learning among countries, a policy where a country subsidizes learning in the other nation—“cultural protectionism”—can be rationalized. Under certain conditions, such a policy can improve the welfare of both countries, in contrast to the case of regular export subsidies.     

The Impact of Liberalizing Trade in Services on Trade in Goods: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper we use a large dataset to explore whether the liberalization of trade in services is beneficial for the international trade in goods. We find empirical evidence supporting this notion. We investigate which types of trade in services are more important for the international trade in goods and find that trade in transportation and communication services generate the largest impacts on trade in goods. We also investigate which types of trade in goods are likely to benefit from the liberalization of trade in services and find that, under the 2‐digit ISTC classification, all the categories are likely to exhibit a positive impact.     

服务业产业内贸易与中国服务贸易的国际竞争力初探

产业内贸易在某种程度上是发展中国家技术水平和经济增长的标志，其发展水平也是衡量一国外贸竞争力的标志。我国服务业产业内贸易水平低下，国际竞争力不强。切实采取措施，提高产业内贸易发展水平是提升服务业产业内贸易国际竞争力水平的重要手段。     

生产者服务进口影响制造业国际竞争力的中介效应研究

运用1997-2008年的数据,引入技术进步和产业结构两个中介变量,对生产者服务进口提高制造业国际竞争力的内部机理进行理论分析。研究结果表明：生产者服务进口和生产者服务业FDI促进了制造业国际竞争力的提高,技术进步是生产者服务进口促进制造业国际竞争力提高的中介变量。