开放条件下我国粮食安全政策的选择

本文认为我国粮食安全政策选择必须统筹国内国际两个市场,应该充分认识国际粮食市场的波动性、不确定性和风险性加大的问题,粮食安全必须立足于国内基本自给,着重处理好进出口贸易与合理保护的关系。     

On the Valuation of Uncertainty in Welfare Analysis

This article develops a general model of private and public choice under temporal uncertainty. The model incorporates the effects of risk preferences and the prospect of future learning into both the individual and aggregate valuations of public projects. The analysis provides new insights on individual valuation, its implications for benefit–cost analysis and the characterization of Pareto-efficiency under uncertainty. It also resolves some of the confusion in the option value and quasi-option value literature.     

Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level

In the early 1980s, a paradigm shift occurred in the field of food security, following Amartya Sens (1981) claims that food insecurity is more of a demand concern, affecting the poor's access to food, than a supply concern, affecting availability of food at the national level. Despite the wide acceptance of Sen's thinking, many controversies including the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in causing and solving food insecurity have remained in academic and policy circles. This study develops a recursive household food security model within the framework of consumer demand and production theories following Singh et al. (1986) , and parses out the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in determining household food security in southern Ethiopia. Based on results of a test of full/reduced model and the magnitude of changes in conditional probabilities of food security, we conclude that the supply‐side variables are more powerful determinants of food security than the demand‐side variables.     

Matching food security and malnutrition indicators: evidence from Southeast Asia

This article aims to understand the relation between household food security and individual undernutrition. The multitude of indicators available raises the question which aspects of food security are captured by the respective indicator. In our analysis, we first assess the relation between the dimensions of food security and households’ socioeconomic characteristics. Second, we examine whether household indicators detect undernutrition in children. Finally, we investigate the role of individual‐specific characteristics for child undernutrition. The analysis is based on a novel data set of 1,200 rural households from Cambodia and Lao PDR, which combines household‐ and individual‐level data. We capture household food security by three indicators including a dietary diversity score, a consumption behavior measure, and an experiential measure. Individual nutrition status is measured via anthropometric indicators. Our results show that different household‐level indicators capture fundamentally different aspects of food security. Moreover, household food security fails to explain stunting for children under five. Dietary diversity indicators, however, explain underweight in children to a small extent. We call for more research on intrahousehold allocation of food and stress the implications of our research for the design and targeting of food and nutrition support programs.     

A Cost Approach to Economic Analysis Under State-Contingent Production Uncertainty

This article explores the economics of input decision under production uncertainty. The article develops a methodology to specify and estimate cost-minimizing input decisions under a state-contingent technology. The analysis is applied to time series data on U.S. agriculture. It finds strong empirical evidence that expected output alone does not provide an appropriate representation of production uncertainty. The results provide empirical support for an output-cubical technology. This indicates that an ex post analysis of stochastic technology appears appropriate. The analysis also provides evidence that the cost of facing production risk has declined in U.S. agriculture over the last few decades.     

城镇化对我国粮食刚性需求影响的研究

粮食安全问题是目前城镇化进程中的风险之一.通过分析后认为,城镇化过程中粮食总体消费弹性区间呈收窄趋势,粮食刚性需求越来越大,这一现象在城镇地区相较于农村地区更为显著.其次,虽然粮食产量持续增长,但由于不确定性的增多,农产品供给难以保持与需求同步增长,一旦发生粮食减产,势必从多方面威胁到我国的经济形势.     

Land administration for food security: A research synthesis

Food security remains an ongoing global concern: the challenge of ensuring food availability, access, and utility for all, at all times, is yet to be met. The body of literature relating to food security is growing immensely. Land administrators are part of the discourse. Their arguments are spread disparately across academic and professional publications. The distinction between scientific work and political rhetoric is increasingly blurry: the role of land administration needs to be more concisely articulated. This paper provides a new synthesis on the relationships between land administration and food security. It undertakes a review of land administration literature relating to food security. It aims at crystallizing understandings of how land administration supports, or fails to support, food security at a conceptual level, and also the strategic and operational levels of land administration systems. The relationship between land administration and food security appears to be conceptually agreed upon; however, at operational levels the link is less evident. Conceptually, land administration is argued to deliver (and sometimes not deliver) secure land tenure, support for implementation of agricultural policies, access to credit, less litigation, easier land dealings, land taxation, land inventories, and land transaction controls. This enables (or undermines) subsistence farming, development of local agricultural sectors and markets, credit to access to non-local food markets, farm subsidization, more efficient land utilization, fairer international investments, and national food planning strategies. In general, the examined literature tends to focus on problem identification rather than system design. Additionally, the large amount of positive viewpoints need better validation in many cases. Future work needs to concentrate on examining the utility of land information and geospatial tools for food security, extracting lessons from the land administration systems of developed contexts, and improving the links at an operational level.     

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia,Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global wheat availability and, hence, global food security. During the past 15 years, however, RUK wheat exports have shown high variability, mainly because they have been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. We present an outlook for RUK wheat production and exports up to 2027, taking into account possible yield variability and harvest failures, and focusing on the impact on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world’s major wheat importing region. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the Aglink-Cosimo model. Simulation results show that wheat yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international wheat markets. The projected substantial increases in world market prices due to limited RUK wheat exports threaten food security in MENA and highlight the need for both stabilising RUK yields and novel complementary food security approaches to decrease MENA’s vulnerability to disruptions in agricultural world markets.     

Home Bias in Primary Agricultural and Processed Food Trade: Assessing the Effects of National Degree of Uncertainty Aversion

This study investigates the effects of national degrees of uncertainty aversion (unfamiliarity avoidance) on the magnitude of bias towards domestic products rather than imports. The empirical analysis is implemented for primary agricultural and processed food products, using a panel dataset covering trade between and within OECD countries. Primary agricultural products are often blended and associated with reference prices. Conversely, processed food products exhibit higher levels of product differentiation. The empirical results confirm expectations by emphasizing the magnifying effects of uncertainty aversion on home bias in the case of processed food products but not in the case of primary agricultural products. These magnifying effects are primarily associated with processed food products destined for final household consumption. Other results reveal significant variations between different countries (based on geo‐economic and national income categories). Our results also indicate that home bias and uncertainty aversion effects on home bias have not decreased over time. The empirical results remain robust under different estimation methods.     

我国粮食损失的发生机制与治理举措分析

节粮减损对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。在我国粮食需求刚性增长,粮食增产难度不断加大的背景下分析了粮食产后损失现象的发生机制。研究发现,粮食从生产到消费经过农户阶段性储藏、企业储存储、物流运输和加工转化等产业链环节,导致粮食产后损失的主要因素是尚未建立现代化的粮食流通管理体制,粮食加工产业链发育程度低、粮食价格改革滞后、地方政府责任不清等。在此分析的基础上,从建设现代粮食流通体系、改善仓储物流设施,引导企业适度加工、促进副产物综合利用和理顺粮食价格引导居民合理消费等方面提出了治理措施,以减少粮食损失浪费,促进资源的有效利用。     

新时期下中国粮食安全保障的发展策略分析

粮食安全保障是影响社会稳定发展的关键要素,在新的社会阶段下,中国粮食安全保障面临着重要的隐患,必须要针对安全隐患进行处理,才可以促进经济形成持续发展模式。基于此,本文针对新时期下中国粮食安全保障存在的隐患进行了分析,并探讨了新阶段下中国粮食安全保障的发展策略,以期为粮食安全保障提供有效参考。     

Role of international politics on agri‐food trade: Evidence from US–Canada bilateral relations

A well‐functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri‐food industry. However, agri‐food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules‐based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri‐food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri‐food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri‐food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri‐food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri‐food trade between Canada and the United States.     

森林生态安全与森林食品安全相互作用机理模型研究

基于产业-生态共生理论研究森林生态安全与森林食品安全复合系统,依次研究了内层作用机理、外层作用机理及内外层作用机理:内层通过物质流、能量流、信息流、价值流发生交换;外层通过满足与收益、动力与压力、激励与约束实现循环;内外层通过需求-技术-管理复合传导路径进行关联。研究结果表明:森林生态安全和森林食品安全两系统并不是孤立的,它们相互交织、相互促进,形成了绿色共生机制。提出的多层次嵌套式森林生态安全与森林食品安全相互作用机理模型为森林生态安全和森林食品安全的协同实现提供了一种全新的研究视角,有助于管理者制定局部和全局相关联的科学决策。     

Urbanisation and Food Insecurity Risks: Assessing the Role of Human Development

The phenomenon of rapid urbanisation across the world has become a topic of increased scholarly inquiry. Yet, little attention has been paid to how urban growth affects countries’ food security and whether this association is modified by a country's level of development. The present study aims to fill this lacuna by examining the association between urbanisation and food security applying statistical modelling. The analysis uses country-level data, from the World Development Indicators and the United Nations’ World Urbanization Prospects. Using a Food Insecurity Risk Index (FIRI) as the outcome variable, the results confirm a significant negative impact of urban growth on food security at the country level. It further finds that rapidly urbanising countries with the lowest levels of human development are most at risk of food insecurity.     

粮食主产区土地生态与粮食安全耦合协调性分析

目的 分析粮食主产区土地生态安全和粮食安全耦合协调状况及时空演变，为提升粮食主产区土地生态与粮食安全协调发展水平及农业绿色发展提供决策参考。方法 文章以粮食主产区为研究对象，基于土地生态与粮食安全相关数据，构建土地生态安全与粮食安全的评价体系，采用熵权法、耦合协调模型和相对发展度模型定量分析了二者的综合评价值、耦合协调水平及耦合协调发展类型。结果 （1）2009—2018年粮食主产区土地生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调度从0.369增至0.433，呈“缓慢上升”态势，协调类型由轻度失调跃升至濒临失调，空间布局呈现“北高南低”的分布特征。（2）各省区耦合协调发展类型分为3类：低度磨合土地生态滞后、高度磨合同步发展及低度磨和粮食安全滞后。结论 针对土地生态与粮食安全的耦合协调发展类型采取差异化措施，实现粮食安全与土地生态安全协同发展。     

基于粮食安全的林业生物质能发展

以粮食为基础的生物能源已有危及粮食安全的倾向。发展林业生物质能有重要意义,中国有发展林业生物质能的巨大潜力,但当前也存在一些影响因素。为了实现能源安全和粮食安全的双赢,今后生物能源的发展应以非粮作物为主。应认识到发展林业生物质能重要性,加强技术研究,强化科技自主创新,加大产业扶持力度。     

适度粮食安全成本与粮食总产出的实证分析——以江苏省为例

文章从介绍粮食安全成本的相关理论与现实意义出发,对粮食安全成本的内涵进行了界定,并对狭义的粮食安全成本与广义的粮食安全成本的内涵进行了界定与分析,并对江苏省粮食安全成本与粮食总产量的现状进行了分析与描述。在此基础上,选取2000~2014年粮食总产量与粮食安全成本(政府成本)的相关统计数据,建立样本的回归方程来观察总体的情况,运用Eviews6.0进行计量分析。分析结果表明:江苏省粮食安全成本对粮食产量有显著的影响,但江苏省粮食安全成本投入太多,已经远远超过了经济增长、粮食产量的增长速度,多投入的成本并没有使产量得到预期的增加。对江苏省粮食安全成本高的主要原因归纳为:粮食生产成本高、政府对国有粮企的补贴高、耕地资源不足及流失严重。并提出降低江苏省粮食安全成本的对策是通过实行粮食规模化生产经营降低粮食生产成本、实行国有粮食改革,淘汰僵尸国企以减少政府对国有粮企的财政补贴及实行严格的耕地保护制度。     

The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden

Considerable increases in food consumption, shifts in consumption patterns and changes in the entire food system have occurred globally. These changes, initially limited to the industrialized world, are now being experienced at an even faster pace in many of the advanced economies of the developing world. The past evolution of this transition in nutrition and lifestyles is by now well documented. Based on FAO's outlook for global food and agriculture, this paper outlines the likely future changes in food consumption patterns and the global trajectory of the nutrition transition over the next 30 years. It presents the main drivers of the nutrition transition and examines their influence on the prospective changes in consumption patterns. The paper illustrates how the current burden of undernourishment and malnutrition in developing countries is likely to compound the adverse effects of the nutrition transition, notably the increasing prevalence of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs); it shows how and where the current problem of undernutrition could create a growing future burden of overweight, obesity and NCDs and that both undernourishment and overnutrition are likely to co-exist for a long time in the vast majority of developing countries, creating a widespread double burden of malnutrition.     

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS,INTERDEPENDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY*

Interdependence has always been central to economics but assumes pressing importance for agricultural economists as they deal with industrialising agricultures. Continued unresolvable uncertainties, when properly recognised, also add to the challenge of relevant work in agricultural economics. The related roles of interdependence and uncertainty are illustrated through examples from the progress of agricultural technology and enhancement of food security.