Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

环境壁垒对我国贸易的影响及对策

分析环境壁垒的内涵及对我国外贸造成的影响，提出了我国应对环境贸易壁垒的对策：要加快与国际环境标准接轨的步伐，实施ISO14000认证，充分发挥和利用自身优势，积极发展绿色产业，争取国际组织的环保技术和资金支持，加强与主要贸易伙伴的技术合作，拓展国际市场，实现出口贸易稳步增长。     

Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?

The gravity model is used extensively to investigate the trade flow effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). A notable feature common to previous research is the use of aggregate trade data. These studies typically report conflicting, and even negative results of the effect of RTAs on members' trade. Using recent developments in the gravity equation suggested by Baier and Bergstrand (2007) and Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) , this article demonstrates that RTA effects on members' trade depend fundamentally on whether the analysis focuses on agricultural or nonagricultural sectors, on the particular agreement analyzed, and on the length of the phase-in period that characterizes almost all RTAs.     

国际贸易中战略性贸易保护的博弈分析 --兼谈反倾销、特别保障措施和绿色壁垒

两个国家之间的贸易是一个博弈，一般来说纳什均衡点将在一定区间范围内移动，根据双方的实力通过谈判最终达到纳什均衡，这是一个量变的过程。但是一旦商品出口量突破临界点时，就超过了进口国可以容忍的限度，形势发生了质的变化。进口国政府会认为进口产品冲击了本国市场，从而决定进行战略性贸易保护，根据具体情况或采取反倾销措施、特别保障措施或运用绿色壁垒来限制进口。所以有必要研究可能触发贸易保护的临界点。在贸易实务中触发进口国采取保护措施有二个敏感因素：一是价格触发，二是数量触发，在数量触发中又分为进口增幅过大造成的数量触发和进口总量过大造成的数量触发。本文以中日菠菜贸易为例进行了博弈实证分析，触发日本对菠菜进行贸易保护的经济根源是由于日本菠菜生产者、日本农协及其他流通组织受到的损失大于日本蔬菜进口商和消费者的得益，证实日本就是运用绿色壁垒对中国菠菜进行了限制，本文对避免触发贸易保护与化解贸易纠纷提出了一系列战略对策。     

构建中国-澳大利亚自由贸易区对双边农产品贸易的影响

本文在分析中国与澳大利亚双边农产品贸易的现状的基础上,分析了中国和澳大利亚两国的农产品贸易壁垒。利用贸易创造和贸易转移理论,研究中国一澳大利亚自由贸易区的建立对双边农产品贸易的影响。     

Tariff Equivalent and Forgone Trade Effects of Prohibitive Technical Barriers to Trade

We derive a method to econometrically estimate the tariff equivalent and forgone trade effects of a prohibitive technical barrier to trade (TBT) based on Wales and Woodland's Kuhn–Tucker approach to corner solutions in consumer choice. The method overcomes the lack of observed data on bilateral trade flows and accounts for differentiated goods by place of origin. We apply the derived random utility model to international trade in apples to identify the tariff equivalent of prohibitive phytosanitary barriers imposed by Australia on potential imports of New Zealand apples. We estimate the forgone apple trade between the two countries, the implied trade injury imposed by Australia on New Zealand, and the welfare loss to Australia. The removal of the Australian policy would induce net welfare gains around US$50 million annually for Australia.     

近代中国的贸易条件:一般趋势及其与农产品贸易的关系

近代中国的综合贸易条件指数整体呈下降趋势,说明中国在对外进行商品交换过程中的相对经济利益是不断下降的.贸易条件的变动受汇率和国际价格水平的影响非常小,与国内价格水平也无明显关系.贸易条件的变动主要是由贸易结构的变化引起的,茶叶和生丝等农产品贸易的衰弱是造成贸易条件下降的主要原因.     

Trade Elasticity,Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry

We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.     

Tariff Equivalent of Technical Barriers to Trade with Imperfect Substitution and Trade Costs

The price-wedge method yields a tariff-equivalent estimate of technical barriers to trade (TBT). An extension of this method accounts for imperfect substitution between domestic and imported goods and incorporates recent findings on trade costs. We explore the sensitivity of this revamped TBT estimate to its key determinants (substitution elasticity, preference for home good, and trade cost). We use the augmented approach to investigate the recent Japan–U.S. apple trade dispute and find that removing the Japanese TBT would yield limited export gains to the United States. We then draw policy implications of our findings.     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分.自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验.本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,...     

Avocado Pests and Avocado Trade

This article evaluates the effects of a November 2004 phytosanitary rule that removed seasonal and geographic restrictions on the importation of fresh Hass avocados from approved orchards in Mexico to the United States. With the remaining systems approach compliance measures in place, pest risks do not substantially increase and U.S. net welfare rises by $77 million. Removal of remaining compliance measures may lead to lower net welfare gains depending on which measures are eliminated and the estimated probabilities of pest infestations.     

中日蔬菜贸易增长因素的实证分析

近年来，中日蔬菜贸易遇到很多的阻力，从促进中日蔬菜贸易增长的角度出发，有必要对中日蔬菜贸易进行实证分析和探讨。本研究首先通过测算比较优势系数明确了中国蔬菜出口的比较优势所在；其次，运用贸易引力模型对日本与其蔬菜进口来源地之间的贸易影响因素进行了实证分析；再次运用进口模型对影响中日蔬菜贸易增长的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：受日本国内内在因素的影响，中日蔬菜贸易增长将是一个长期趋势。     

Calculating Trade Damages in the Context of the World Trade Organization's Dispute Settlement Process

Since its inception in 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement system has received over 250 notifications of trade disputes. While most have been settled, in a few cases the WTO arbitrators had to approve damage awards. This paper will use one of these cases ( Hormones ) to explain the methodology arbitrators use to calculate damages and how this methodology differs from an efficiency-based measure of welfare that economists would instinctively provide. Yet, there are rational reasons for this difference and the arbitrator's methodology does a better job of providing incentives for countries not to violate trade agreements.     

Multifunctionality and Agricultural Trade Negotiations

Differing views of multifunctionality—attributing nonmarket benefits to agricultural production—continue to be an obstacle in World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Some nations see multifunctionality as justifying subsidies to agricultural production; others see it as disguised protection. This paper shows that while multifunctionality never justifies trade interventions, it can justify production subsidies or taxes. Recognizing that the subsidies or taxes can be economically efficient policies, nations must precisely define and value the externalities in order to design policies and defend those interventions in the WTO. Trade rules are developed that accommodate domestic policy intervention while preventing disguised protection.     

中缅木材贸易探究

通过参与式观察、深度访谈,对中缅木材贸易的主要问题包括贸易区域与方式、贸易发展历程、贸易规模与结构以及对两国边境地区的影响等进行了探讨。结果表明:中缅木材贸易持续了近30年,基本是中国进口缅甸原木、锯材的单边贸易,主要是两国边境地区企业和机构之间的现汇贸易;对缅甸中央及地方政府财税收入、边境群众生计影响大,是中国木材进口的主要来源之一,同时对中国边境地区木材产业和当地群众生计有较大影响。应将双边木材贸易上升到国家或地区战略层次,加强与缅甸林业的全方位合作,同时建立中缅双方木材合法性认同机制。     

Twenty-three Centuries of Chinese Trade

One cover of the Economist magazine in November, 1999 proclaimed "China Opens Up". This paper argues that that assertion is most likely wrong, and not for the first time. In fact "China Closes Down" would be a more representative title for most of the last twenty-three centuries. For China, international commerce has always been less important than geopolitical influence; and self-sufficiency has meant avoiding reliance on outsiders to save face. These tendencies are as true today as they have been throughout history. Therefore, one should not overestimate the trade impacts of China's possible inclusion in the World Trade Organization. For China, entry into the WTO would be primarily a diplomatic victory in the "two-China" context with Taiwan, much along the lines of mainland China's membership in the United Nations. China will thus likely continue to strive for maximum self-sufficiency, particular in foodgrains