The European Union: Economic prospects,structural reforms and enlargement

On the eve of enlargement of the European Union from fifteen to twenty-five Member States, this article focuses on economic developments in 2003 and prospects for 2004 and 2005 in the European Union, especially in the euro area, the state of play on structural reform, before concluding with some reflections on enlargement.     

The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On

This paper reviews the functioning of the Economic and MonetaryUnion over the first 4 years of its existence. Monetary policyis viewed as having been of the ‘inflation-targeting’type, but with a tendency towards delay and conservatism inadjustment, which may also reflect over-optimistic output growthforecasts. The resulting pressure on the Stability and GrowthPact (SGP) illustrates the weakness in the ‘consensusview’ of the harmonious interaction of monetary, fiscal,and supply-side policies, which requires policy in all threeareas to be ‘correct’. In discussing reform of theSGP, a looser but still constraining form of fiscal agreementis advocated. The supply-side and balance-of-payments issuesinvolved in inter-country adjustment also interact importantlywith the SGP and are identified as key areas of difficulty ina still ‘immature’ monetary union, with separatelabour-market structures. Here the mechanisms for coordinationare more or less absent.     

The Assessment: Games and Coordination

Coordination problems arise in a multitude of economic interactions.Recent advances in the field of game theory have shed new lighton these problems and the ways in which they might be analysed.This issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy first examinessome of the theoretical dimensions to this literature, as wellas some empirical and experimental insights. It goes on to applysome of these ideas to a number of important policy areas, includingmacroeconomic policy coordination, public good provision, andproblems of political coordination.     

The Assessment: Education

Research on the economics of education increasingly influencesthe design of education policy. The framework for the analysisis provided by human capital theory, in which education is interpretedas an investment, raising the future productivity of the individualand bringing other private and social benefits. Estimates ofthe private and social returns to education, and of the effectivenessof schools and teachers, can be used to guide the allocationof resources within the public sector; in addition, policy reformsin the UK have attempted to make public providers of educationmore responsive to the preferences of parents and students.There is evidence that pupil attainment has risen in recentyears, but that the education system fails to provide equalityof access or opportunity and may reinforce social and economicinequality.     

环境外部性的计量、矫正及其治理——兼论"庇古手段"与"科斯手段"的偏颇

外部性理论是现代经济学特别是新制度经济学的重要理论之一,外部性的存在意味着资源的非帕累托最优配置。西方经济学家对有关外部性问题尤其是环境外部性问题产生的原因、后果及解决方法提出了众多理论。本文重点研究探讨庇古的“庇古税“理论与科斯的“交易成本“理论,结合环境污染问题对环境外部性的计量进行演绎、推算,分析评价“庇古手段“与“科斯手段“的偏颇,并由此提出治理环境外部性的政策措施。     

The European monetary system: Crisis and future

This paper examines the immediate and the fundamental causes of the crsis that hit the European Monetary System in September 1992 and August 1993 and the obstacles that European countries face in trying to achieve their ultimate goal of full monetary union, including a single currency and a union-wide central bank by the end of this decade. The conclusion that follows from the paper is that achieving full monetary union in Europe by the end of this decade is certainly possible but not certain. A major recession or other shock affecting asymmetrically more than one large member nation could derail or at least delay the process of monetary union. Although major benefits are expected to flow from monetary union in Europe, even more important are the political benefits that such a union would provide to its members.     

The European Union: Eastern enlargement and taxation

The European Union has not defined its limits in geographical terms. Each enlargement has led and will lead to a decrease of the European Union's per capita GDP. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the transition countries went through a long and deep recession. However, they have reached a stage of positive growth and their tax levels are approaching the lower limit of the range of tax/GDP ratios in European Union countries. Differences exist in tax capacity and tax effort. In some countries, greater efforts are possible to improve tax revenues. Further examination of the timing of tax administration reform may shed light on tax effort in transition countries. The paper also suggests the existence of a negative relationship between tax effort and corruption. (JEL P27, H20) This research is supported in part by San Jose State University (SJSU) during the author's stay at SJSU as 2003-04 International Tax Policy Research Fellow. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a seminar at SJSU. The author gratefully acknowledges useful comments received from seminar participants.     

双边市场视角下平台互联互通问题的研究

双边市场理论是近年来国内外产业组织理论研究的一个热点领域，双边平台的互联互通是该领域的重点之一。本文从平台间互联接入费的视角研究了对称和非对称平台互联，研究表明平台互联互通能够提高平台的利润和社会福利；非对称平台互联时，平台互联会抵消强势平台的用户规模优势。既然无规制环境中无法形成双边平台自发的互联互通，政策制定者就有必要制定相关政策，来强制双边平台进行互联，同时对于平台互联接入费进行规制。     

欧洲债务危机:原因、症结与出路

欧洲债务危机的发生既有内部原因又有外部原因。内部原因有欧元制度设计缺陷、危机国家政策失误、福利制度等,外部原因有金融危机影响、美元势力打压等。欧债危机的症结表现为六大矛盾,即欧元区国家与非欧元区国家之间的矛盾、欧元区内部发生危机国家与未发生危机国家之间的矛盾、援助国之间的矛盾、援助国内部的矛盾、债务国内部的矛盾、欧元与美元之间的矛盾。解决欧债危机必须多策并举:欧洲内部需要树立自信、增强他信,改革欧元、实施统一财政政策,保增长、促发展,改革福利制度;对外则需加强与美元势力的斗争,寻求中国等新兴工业化国家援助。     

The Assessment: The New Economy

The remarkable economic success of the United States in the1990s led many observers to talk about a ‘New Economy’.This paper provides an overview of the main issues, includingfaster productivity growth, the stability of inflation despitevery low unemployment, the reduction in output volatility, therole of monetary policy, and the boom in the stock market. Thepaper also considers whether or not the acceleration in productivitygrowth can be sustained, and the possible implications for therest of the world.     

互联互通蓝图下中国先进制造业转型升级研究

在互联互通蓝图下,发展先进制造业逐渐成为未来经济发展的制高点。近年来,我国制造业规模不断扩大,技术创新实现持续突破,但是研发投入不足、技术力量薄弱、空间分布不均衡、自主创新能力缺失等问题却仍旧存在。在分析了互联互通蓝图下我国制造业发展面临的新一轮产业革命发展、要素配给效率低等主要影响因素后,本文提出了我国先进制造业需要通过完善基础设施、突破核心技术、培养数字化人才、形成与智能化发展相符的管理理念以及提升品牌知名度的发展路径,从而实现中国先进制造业的转型升级。     

The Assessment: labour markets and welfare

Rapid and radical changes in the labour markets of developedeconomies have had profound implications for the welfare andwell-being of their citizens. This Assessment argues that thereis still considerable divergence in labour-market processesand outcomes across countries. This is likely to remain thecase. Nevertheless, there is a range of common problems. Importantamong these are what is happening to the rights of people atwork and how they should be protected. Views about appropriaterights have altered in recent years. In the future, debate aboutthis is likely to be even more closely linked to debate aboutlabour-market flexibility. The Assessment goes on to discussa variety of distributional problems related to joblessnessand low pay, and evaluates policy interventions designed totackle them. Although there has been progress in terms of policyeffectiveness, interventions are fragile in helping people toescape from cycles of repeated misfortune and long-term disadvantage.     

FDI竞争、环境规制与污染避难所——对中国式分权的反思

基于1994~2006年省级面板数据,本文考察了FDI竞争与环境规制间的关系。主要结论是:中国的环境规制实际上对FDI的流入产生了显著的抑制效应,在此背景下,地方政府有动机以放松环境管制为手段来吸引更多的FDI流入,这导致中国成为跨国污染企业的污染避难所;地方政府间的这种竞争到底行为根源于中国特有的分权模式,这提醒我们需要重新审视中国式分权对地方政府治理结构的影响。     

欧债危机的演进、成因及应对措施

欧债危机仍在继续发酵,欧洲经济前景难料.历时两年多的欧债危机性质及其影响发生着深刻变化.此次欧债危机无论其演进过程、产生原因,还是所采取的应对措施,均具有前所未有的独特性.鉴于国内对这些问题缺乏系统全面的讨论,目前尚未形成统一认识,文章将系统而深入地梳理欧债危机的演进过程、形成原因和应对措施,以便人们更为透彻地了解欧债危机的发展过程和更为全面地理解欧债危机的形成机理和应对策略.     

The Assessment: Technology Policy

Current research and problems in science and technology policyare reviewed. Trends in innovative activity in the G-7 economiesduring the past two decades are summarized and the economicrationale for policy in this area given. Policy tools currentlyin use in many countries include tax credits and subsidies,the intellectual property system, and competition policy. Ongoingareas of current controversy are the interaction of intellectualproperty and competition policies, environmental and innovationpolicy, standard-setting in industries characterized by networkexternalities, and the privatization of scientific researchand its consequences.     

The Assessment: Climate-Change Policy

The paper provides a guide to climate-change policy, and, inparticular, the three core components: targets, instruments,and institutional structures. First, the optimal path for reducingcarbon-dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and the role of the social costof carbon in the estimation and revision of the path are setout. Second, the policy instruments, or combination of instruments—taxes,permits, and command-and-control—which are likely to bemost efficient within the political constraints are reviewed.Finally, the design of institutional structures most conduciveto the facilitation of international agreements (such as theKyoto Protocol) and the establishment of credible global climate-changepolicies is discussed. The paper identifies the considerableinefficiencies in existing policies, and the scope for policyimprovements.