The Present International Monetary System: Problems,Complications, and Reforms

In the last decade serious crises have affected financial markets. Some proposals to avoid international financial crises have been made, but more useful could be measures to strengthen the functioning of the present international monetary system. Another way could be a much greater involvement of the private sector. The misalignment among leading currencies of the world can be a source of crisis difficult to solve. The creation of the European Central Bank (ECB) and of the euro leaves unresolved the serious problem of how a European Monetary Union member will respond to an asymmetric shock.     

The Euro and the Dollar, 1998

There is no immediate prospect for the euro to become an anchor currency outside Central Europe and the Mediterranean. Still, a successful euro could deepen European financial markets and attract more international investment to the euro area. The prospect of substantial portfolio shifts into the euro, however, does not justify forecasts that the new currency will appreciate against the dollar over an extended time horizon. Liability managers outside the euro area should also find the enhanced liquidity and improved diversification possibilities of euro-denominated debt attractive.     

Deregulation, Integration, and Market Structure in European Banking

This paper analyzes the impact of deregulation and market integration policies on the structure of European banking markets. It argues that whether European integration will lead to large increases in EU-wide concentration will depend on the extent to which competition in banking is based on endogenous sunk costs or, alternatively, on variable costs and exogenous sunk costs. The paper also highlights the role of own funds as a source of endogenous increasing returns. Finally, it proposes an empirical test of the dominant form of competition. This procedure is applied to data for 11 EU countries during the period 1981–1995. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1999, 13(4), pp. 372–396. IESE (International Graduate School of Management), University of Navarra, Av. Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, Spain. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G21.     

论中国保险公估业的发展——从比较优势、产业分工和产业政策角度

文章基于比较优势、产业分工等理论,借鉴欧、美、日发达保险市场及其公估业发展的实践,充分考虑我国保险业及保险公估业发展实际,论证了中国保险业专业化发展的必然趋势,提出要从产业政策上引导中国保险业实现生产要素流向具有比较优势的保险公估等机构,从而逐步实现保险产业分工和专业化发展,使中国保险业与国际保险业接轨,培育国际竞争力。     

Did Vasco da Gama matter for European markets?1

This article explores the impact of the ‘Voyages of Discovery’ on European spice markets, asking whether the exploits of Vasco da Gama and others brought European and Asian spice markets closer together. To this end we compare trends in pepper and fine spice prices before and after 1503, the year when da Gama returned from his financially successful second voyage. Other authors have examined trends in nominal spice prices, but this article uses relative spice prices, that is, accounting for inflation. We find that the Voyages of Discovery had a major impact on European spice markets, and provide a simple model of monopoly and oligopoly to decompose the sources of the Cape route's impact on European markets. Finally, we offer some speculations regarding the impact of the Cape route on intra‐European market integration.     

German,US and Central and Eastern European Stock Market Integration

This paper examines the long-term linkages between seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) emerging stock markets and two developed stock markets, namely the German and the US markets. The stability of the long-run relationships is studied using recursive cointegration analysis. The results reveal that the financial linkages between the CEE markets and the world markets increased with the beginning of the EU accession process. Furthermore, the application of the Gonzalo and Granger (J Bus Econ Stat 13:27–35, 1995) methodology indicates that the examined stock markets are partially integrated, while there is also evidence that the emerging stock markets of Central and Eastern Europe except for Estonia together with the German and the US stock markets, have a significant common permanent component, which drives this system of stock exchanges in the long run. Finally, it is worthwhile to note that the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 caused a slowdown in the convergence process. In addition we find evidence that the Slovenian stock market exhibits a moderate increase in the transitory component and this may be attributed to the Slovenian full membership in the euro area.     

Consumer revolution in north-western Germany: Material culture,global goods,and proto-industry in rural households in the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries

Existing scholarship on the early modern consumer revolution postulates a dichotomy between the classic pioneering countries of England and the Netherlands and the remaining parts of Europe, which were more stagnant. We contribute to this literature by analysing probate inventories in a rural area in north-western Germany. We show that a closer look at these spaces, which had an intermediate level of development and integration into global markets, reveals a more gradual development and a discernible market evolution. Sumptuary laws may have somewhat slowed down the change in material culture in German regions, but the presence of towns and the proximity to the Netherlands had noticeably positive effects on consumer behaviour. The proto-industrial orientation of local economies proved to be particularly important, as it led to the granting of access to global markets, in addition to greater availability of cash. We observe a delayed diffusion of the new consumer culture in intermediate European regions and argue for a more gradual view of the European consumer revolution.     

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian,economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.

     

Efficiency and deficiency: Central planning,trade and dumping

Summary In this article an effort has been made to demonstrate that trade effectiveness indicators, as used in the decision-making process in centrally planned economies, tend to induce Eastern European dumping on Western markets.     

The challenge of 1992 Europe

Conclusion When the single market of Europe 1992 is in place, the EC will rank next to the U. S. in purchasing power and will represent one of the two largest markets in the world. With the realization of the proposed monetary union, the parallel will become even more striking.Economies of scale and scope will result from: decreased border controls; unified technical standards; reduced distribution and marketing costs; and standardized rules and regulations in the manufacturing and financial sectors. Firms will face many challenges and opportunities in this new market structure. Companies must realize that changes are not limited to just the economic environment but are also taking place in the political, legal, and social environments.The European business environment is experiencing an exciting time of change. Businesses must take advantage of the opportunities presented by a diverse and complex single European market, not only in the economic sense but also in a more complex socio-political one. It is indeed an exciting time of change.     

Prospects for the manufacturing exports of the non-candidate Mediterranean countries in a community of twelve

The paper examines the impact of the accession of Greece, Portugal and Spain on the exports of manufactures of the non-candidate, non-member Mediterranean countries (NCMC). The effects of the second enlargement of the EEC on the manufacturing exports of the NCMC are examined by looking at the changes in post-enlargement market access principally in two groups of markets, i.e. the markets of the European Community of Nine (EEC-9) and the markets of the new entrants. The structure of the manufacturing exports to the EEC-9 of the newly acceding countries is compared to the structure of the exports of NCMC to the Community in order to see the extent to which EEC-9 imports from NCMC will be replaced by sources from the new entrants. The potential for NCMC trade expansion and trade discrimination in the markets of the new entrants is also investigated. The paper concludes by pointing out the commodity groups where trade conflicts between the enlarged EEC and the NCMC can potentially arise.     

超越紧缩——探索欧洲主权债务危机的终结之道

2009年希腊债务危机拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的帷幕,并将全球金融市场置于危险的境地,至今仍无见底迹象且呈现扩散的趋势。欧洲主权债务危机爆发的根源在于欧元区成员国之间的竞争力失衡,欧元区政策框架存在制度性缺陷使得问题进一步加剧。欧元区领导人推出一整套危机永久解决机制,然而此方案并未触及欧元区深层次的问题,距离债务危机的永久解决还有很长的路要走。危机的最终解决已经超越了纯粹的经济学范畴,它将取决于各国的政治决心和魄力以及欧洲精神的复兴,反思欧洲现有的经济与社会发展模式,寻求经济增长的新路径。     

International Financial Architecture and the Economic Renaissance in Europe

Over the past decade two transformations have changed the landscape of Europe: the European Union and the transition in East European countries. Countries like Estonia, Hungary, and Poland have become “converging” countries more than emerging countries. Their experience offers insight on aspects of policy design that helped proof them against turbulence in international markets. In a world of liberalized markets, the international financial architecture has to be strengthened by solving some problems like herding behavior and contagion, moral hazard, and information on markets. The International Monetary Fund has to play a big role in these innovations and challenges.     

中东欧国家金融银行业开放过程中的潜在风险分析

20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家先后实施了金融银行业对外开放政策。金融开放为中东欧国家金融银行业注入了活力,但同时也蕴含着很多问题和潜在风险,在全球金融危机的冲击下,这些问题和潜在风险已影响到这些国家的金融市场和银行体系的稳定。本文着重从过高的外币融资、过快增长的家庭信贷、过度依赖的间接融资,以及外资银行大量进入挤占内资银行市场份额等4个方面分析这些国家金融银行业潜在风险的形成过程。     

Recession, inflation and the international monetary system

The difficult circumstances being faced by the world economy and its uncertain prospects for the 1980s make it necessary to take a new look at the present financial mechanisms and international institutions for monetary cooperation, with a view to adapting them to current needs and to developments in the near future. The industrial countries will have more modest rates of growth than in earlier decades, and this will have significant consequences for the developing countries: (a) stagnation of official development aid flows; (b) possible intensification of protectionist trends; (c) slow growth of producers of raw materials whose export markets will be seriously limited; (d) gradual shift of world economic and political activity toward oil-producing developing countries and, to a lesser extent, toward the exporters of manufacturers; (e) industrial countries and raw materials producers will become increasingly interdependent; (f) oil-producing and other higher income developing countries will increase their participation in regional economic cooperation and official development aid efforts. Some of the more specific problems which require attention from the international community are inflation and recession; structural disequilibria, recycling and external debt; adjustment process; creation of liquidity and transfer of resources; and participation of the developing countries in the monetary system.     

Financial integration and innovation in Europe

The creation of an internal market for financial services by the European Union, along with technological changes in communications and data management, will have a strong impact on banking and financial markets in Europe. This paper presents a selective review of discussions concerning the resulting processes of adjustment and their outcomes. Topics covered include effects on cost efficiency, competition production and trade patterns, and the dynamics of financial regulation in the open, integrated economy.     

Eco-innovation for environmental sustainability: concepts, progress and policies

There is increasing scientific evidence that natural systems are now at a level of stress globally that could have profound negative effects on human societies worldwide. In order to avoid these effects, one, or a number of technological transitions will need to take place through transforming processes of eco-innovation, which have complex political, institutional and cultural, in addition to technological and economic, dimensions. Measurement systems need to be devised that can assess to what extent eco-innovation is taking place. Environmental and eco-innovation have already led in a number of European countries to the establishment of substantial eco-industries, but, because of the general absence of environmental considerations in markets, these industries are very largely the result of environmental public policies, the nature and effectiveness of which have now been assessed through a number of reviews and case studies. The paper concludes that such policies will need to become much more stringent if eco-innovation is to drive an adequately far-reaching technological transition to resolve pressing environmental challenges. Crucial in the political economy of this change will be that eco-industries, supported by public opinion, are able to counter the resistance of established industries which will lose out from the transition, in a reformed global context where international treaties and co-operation prevent the relocation of environmentally destructive industries and encourage their transformation.     

Black markets: Illegality, information, and rents

The analysis of black markets typically treats illegality only in reduced form as an additional cost per transaction. We argue that this misses the essential feature of black markets: that the risk of detection depends upon the dissemination of information. Because the cost of information is increased, traders will change marketing technology from advertising to sequential approaches to potential customers. The trader's decision problem is his offer price: as he raises it he must expect to make more approaches per sale and thereby increase detection risk. This behavior is important because of its implications at the market level. The optimal offer price will be set at a level at which excess demand persists: would-be consumers are not always able to bid themselves into supplies. Hence, black markets are not sufficient to eliminate the shortages which arise from price controls. In an earlier paper the authors established that peasant supply response to crop prices would be perverse in the presence of shortages: black markets therefore need not restore normal responses. The paper includes evidence from rural Tanzania.     

Trade Diversion Effects of the New EU Arrangements on ASEAN

paper identifies the product groups of the ASEAN exports to Europe that will experience trade diversion effects from the enlargement of the EU (EU 12) with Austria, Finland and Sweden (EFTA 3) and the European association agreements with the Eastern European countries (EACs) using the methodology of Kreinin and Plummer. This methodology establishes for each sufficiently important ASEAN export product group to the EU 12, the EFTA 3 or the EACs whether or not competition is felt from one of the three groups of European countries, after which the tariff and non-tariff preferences towards European products and against the ASEAN exports are analysed.
The share of the exports in ASEAN's external trade with the EU 12, the EFTA 3 and the EACs that is affected by the trade diversion of these recent European integration initiatives, is calculated. It appears that the ASEAN exports to the EU 12 are affected by the accession of the EFTA3 only to a limited extent, but that the trade diversion effect on the EU 12 and the EFTA 3 markets to be expepected from the European association agreements with the EACs is considerable.     

The Biofuel Controversy

Summary  About a decade ago, the main OECD countries decided to promote the use of biofuels so as to reduce greenhouse gases, to contribute to energy self-sufficiency and to create additional demand for agricultural commodities. The introduction of mandatory blending requirements and lavish subsidies spurred fast adoption of this technology. In the course of 2008, the already existing controversy about the effectiveness of this strategy culminated as the resulting upward shift in demand contributed to staggering rises in food prices on world markets. It is uncertain as yet whether this will tone done current ambitions among policy makers to expand biofuel production. The paper shows that high ratios of energy prices to food prices are needed to make biofuel production profitable without the mandatory blending and subsidies. Yet, even if food-based biofuels disappeared, the issue remains that rising high energy prices will promote intensified use worldwide of land for energy crops, requiring huge amounts of mineral fertilizers and putting nature under additional pressure. In policy terms, this defines three major tasks. The first is replacing the current excise taxes on energy carriers by a uniform carbon tax, so as to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in an efficient manner, the second to prevent price fluctuations on the oil markets from destabilizing food markets, as happened in recent years. Introduction of upper limits on the use of food for biofuel could prove effective here. The third, much wider, task is to make the transition to a partly biomass based energy production possible and sustainable, that is establishing fair distribution of property and user rights over the lands, while safeguarding biodiversity and soil fertility and maintaining adequate labour standards and living conditions, also during periods that these become non-profitable following a drop in energy prices. The authors thank Lia van Wesenbeeck for her comments.