Relative Income and Indebtedness: Evidence from Panel Data

We examine patterns of indebtedness in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, focusing on the period surrounding the housing bubble and its aftermath (i.e., 1999–2009). Leverage increased across households, but most quickly among lower income households during this period. We find additionally that leverage grew faster for households with lower relative income compared to other households in similar demographic groups or within a state controlling for own income. Together, these findings provide evidence for the thesis that the rising indebtedness of households in the U.S. is related to high levels of inequality, and that “Veblen effects,” whereby relative income matters for individual well‐being and decisions, may contribute to rising household indebtedness.     

Heroin Consumption,Prices and Addiction: Evidence from Self‐reported Panel Data*

Estimation models of drug demand should encompass the aspect of addiction. Here, we consider two static panel data regression models and two cross‐section models with lags or leads in drug consumption as additional regressors. Heroin injectors attending a needle exchange service in Oslo were interviewed twice, with a one‐year interval. Despite our relatively small sample, we obtain statistically significant price and income responses for nearly all of the models and specifications applied. The sample is split by dealing status, with dealers obtaining price elasticities in the range of [?0.15, ?1.51] and non‐dealers [?0.71, ?1.69]. Somewhat surprisingly, the estimates of the variance of the latent individual‐specific variable are rather low in the panel data models, although higher for non‐dealers than for dealers.     

Accounting for United States Household Income Inequality Trends: The Changing Importance of Household Structure and Male and Female Labor Earnings Inequality

Using a shift‐share analysis on March CPS data, this paper estimates the degree to which changes in labor earnings, employment, and marriage patterns account for household income inequality growth in the United States since 1979. The factors contributing to the rapid rise in income inequality in the 1980s differ substantially from those contributing to its slower increase since that time. Unlike findings for the 1980s when changes in the correlation of spouses' earnings accounted for income inequality growth, this factor is no longer a major contributor toward its continued increase. Additionally, the 2000s business cycle is the first full business cycle in at least 30 years where changes in earnings of male household heads accounted for declines in income inequality. Instead, the continued growth in income inequality in the 2000s was accounted for primarily by increases in female earnings inequality and declines in both male and female employment.     

The Impact of Natural Disasters on Income Inequality: Analysis using Panel Data during the Period 1970 to 2004

Although natural disasters have been found to influence economic growth, their impact on income inequality has not yet been explored. This paper uses cross-country panel data during the period 1965 to 2004 to examine how the occurrence of natural disasters has affected income inequality. The major findings of this study are that although natural disasters have increased income inequality in the short (5 years) term, this effect disappears in the long term (10 years). These findings are observed even after the fixed effects of year and country are controlled for.     

Inequality of Income and Consumption in the U.S.: Measuring the Trends in Inequality from 1984 to 2011 for the Same Individuals

This paper examines the distribution of income and consumption in the U.S. using one dataset that obtains measures of both income and consumption from the same set of individuals. We develop a set of inequality measures that show the increase in inequality during the past 27 years using the 1984–2011 Consumer Expenditure Survey. We find that the trends in income and consumption inequality are similar between 1984 and 2006, and diverge during and after the Great Recession. For the entire 27‐year period we find that consumption inequality increases almost as much as does income inequality.     

The Intensity and Shape of Inequality: The ABG Method of Distributional Analysis

Inequality is anisotropic: its intensity varies by income level. We here develop a new tool, the isograph, to focus on local inequality and illustrate these variations. This method yields three coefficients which summarize the shape of inequality: a main coefficient, α, which measures inequality at the median; and two correction coefficients, β and γ, which pick up any differential curvature at the top and bottom of the distribution. The analysis of a set of 232 microdata samples from 41 different countries in the LIS datacenter archive allows us to provide a systematic overview of the properties of the ABG (α β γ) coefficients, which are compared to a set of standard indices including Atkinson indices, generalized entropy, Wolfson polarization, and the GB2 distribution. This method also provides a smoothing tool that reveals the differences in the shape of distributions (the strobiloid) and how these have changed over time.     

Understanding Changes in the Distribution and Redistribution of Income: A Unifying Decomposition Framework

In recent decades income inequality has increased in many developed countries but the role of tax and transfer reforms is often poorly understood. We propose a new method allowing for the decomposition of historical changes in income distribution and redistribution measures into: (i) the immediate effect of tax‐transfer policy reforms in the absence of behavioral responses; (ii) the effect of labor supply responses induced by these reforms; and (iii) a third component allowing us to explore the effect of changes in the distribution of a wide range of determinants, including the effect of employment changes not induced by policy reforms. The application of the decomposition to Australia reveals that the direct effect of tax‐transfer policy reforms accounts for half of the observed increase in income inequality between 1999 and 2008, while the increased dispersion of wages and capital incomes also played an important role.     

我国财政支出对经济增长非线性效应——基于省级面板数据的平滑转移模型实证分析

文章基于我国1997-2009年省级面板数据,采用数据本身隐含信息进行内分组的面板平滑转移模型来检验财政支出与经济增长之间的非线性效应,并进一步拓展了Armey曲线推论。研究发现,我国省级政府财政一般预算支出规模和财政支出结构均与经济增长之间存在Armey曲线所描绘的非线性效应,其中财政一般预算支出最优规模为9.32%,财政支出最优结构为1.643,并且财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构都在最优值两侧对经济增长的影响具有不对称性,相比而言,财政一般预算支出规模的转换速度似乎更快。这意味着现阶段我国财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构不合理,需要政府提高财政支出效率。     

Incomes and Inequality in the Long Run: The Case of German Elderly

Abstract. We use German Sample Survey income data to examine the income distribution for elderly individuals during the period from 1978 to 2003. The elderly population, defined as people of age 55 and older, is decomposed by people resident in the Old and New Federal States. Further, we distinguish between persons receiving old‐age pensions and persons who do not. Inequality estimates are decomposed by income components, and the bootstrap method is used to test for statistical significance of results.     

International R&D Spillovers,Absorptive Capacity and Relative Backwardness: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

We investigate how a country's absorptive capacity and relative backwardness affect the impact of international R&D spillovers on domestic Total Factor Productivity (TFP). To account for nonlinearities, we adopt a Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach, where a country's TFP elasticity to the foreign R&D stock is allowed to change smoothly across various identified extreme values, and the change is related to observable transition variables: human capital (capturing the country's absorptive capacity) and relative backwardness. The results suggest that absorptive capacity is positively associated with international R&D spillovers. In contrast with previous results, relative backwardness is instead found to have a negative and significant impact on international knowledge spillovers.     

Location factors of FDI and the growing services economy1

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increasingly shifted toward the service sector. This change in the industrial composition of FDI and the non‐tradable nature of services may have altered the importance of location factors for investment decisions. To capture potential changes in FDI determinants, a contrasting sectoral analysis is performed. Based on FDI stock data from eight new EU member states for the period 1998–2004, we implement a dynamic panel approach allowing the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium investment level to vary across sectors. Results support our assumption that investment into the service sector, which is characterized by low installation costs, adjusts much faster to its desired level than manufacturing FDI. Thus, government interventions to attract FDI are likely to boost the service sector immediately while having a slower impact on manufacturing FDI. Furthermore, as services are mostly non‐tradable, FDI into this sector is largely based on market‐seeking motives while FDI in the manufacturing sector is also driven by international price competitiveness measured by real unit labour costs.     

Methods of privatization and economic growth in transition economies1

We examine how different methods of privatization might have affected growth in transition economies. Using several econometric specifications, including fixed effects and GMM, we estimate a cross‐country panel growth model for 1990–2003. We find only voucher privatization to have been significantly associated with faster growth. Moreover, neither private sector development per se nor capital market development exercised a significant influence. We speculate that voucher privatization may have been effective because of the speed with which links between firms and the state were severed.     

Household Finances and Social Interaction: Bayesian Analysis of Household Panel Data

We investigate the relationship between social interaction and household finances using the British Household Panel Survey. We explore the relationship between a wide range of aspects of household finances and social interaction, rather than focusing on one particular facet of household finances, such as the holding of stocks and shares. We develop a Bayesian statistical framework to simultaneously explore both sides of the household balance sheet—liabilities and assets. Additionally, we allow the influence of social interaction on household finances to be time dependent, enabling us to model the effects of social interaction from a dynamic perspective. We also develop a two‐part model to jointly investigate the influence of social interaction on the amount of different types of debt and financial assets held conditional on holding the different types of debt and assets. Our analysis suggests that social interaction is associated with households holding larger amounts of debt and assets.     

Accounting for the Changing Role of Family Income in Determining College Entry

In this paper, I analyze the determinants of college enrolment and the changes in these determinants over time. I propose a quantitative life‐cycle model with college enrolment. Altruistic parents provide financial support to their children. Using counterfactual experiments, I find that 24 percent of all households are financially constrained in their college decision. Constraints become more severe over time. I show that my model is consistent with a narrow college enrolment gap between students from rich and poor families, as previously reported in the empirical literature. The estimation of enrolment gaps is a popular reduced‐form approach for measuring the fraction of constrained households. My results suggest that these reduced‐form estimates are misleading, and that a structural model of parental transfers is needed to correctly identify constrained households. Further, I show that parental transfers are an important driver behind the changing role of family income as a determinant of college entry, a fact that is well documented for the US economy.     

Modelling Heterogeneous Preferences for Income Redistribution–An Application of Continuous and Discrete Distributions

This paper investigates observable and unobservable heterogeneity in individuals’ preferences for redistribution—differentiating the desired overall volume of redistribution and who should receive benefits, subsidies, or transfers. We use data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in the field and based on a representative sample of the German voting‐age population. Applying random parameters and latent class models, our results show that latent and potentially discontinuously distributed factors must be accounted for, as they heavily impact the interpretation of the findings. We find considerable heterogeneity in redistribution preferences, clearly identifying three distinct subgroups. While all groups are in favor of redistribution, they differ regarding the preferred allocation of the redistributive budget.     

中国基本养老保险的地区分配差异研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

运用2000～2009年省际面板数据对我国基本养老保险地区分配差异进行实证分析,发现人均基本养老金和地区平均工资之间存在协整关系,因此,中央和各地方政府应大力发展经济,缩小地区工资差异,加大社会基本养老保障制度改革的力度,促进社会基本养老保障服务地区均等化,努力构建中国经济、社会和谐发展。     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的库兹涅茨效应研究——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

金融发展可度量为金融-规模、金融-活动和金融*效率三个主要指标.利用OLS和GMM回归、面板单位根、协整和因果关系检验对中国金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间的关系进行检验后得知: (1)金融发展和城乡收入差距之间存在着库兹涅茨效应,即所谓的倒U关系. (2)中国金融发展规模显著拉大了城乡收入差距,但加强农业贷款对农民收入增长取得了显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距;金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小. (3)金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系;金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之间存在双向因果关系.     

财政支出规模、结构与城乡收入不平等——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

本文分析了改革开放以来中国城乡收入不平等的变动趋势,采用中国1995-2009年省级面板数据实证考察了财政支出规模及支出结构对城乡收入差距的影响效应。研究结果表明:由于长期实施的财政支出城市偏向分配机制,财政支出显著地扩大了城乡间收入差距;而不同项目的财政支出对城乡收入差距的影响互异,其中农林水务支出能够显著缩小城乡间相对收入差距,而公共安全支出以及社会保障支出的受益范围主要局限于城市,显著不利于城乡间收入状况的改善。本文的政策含义是:要扭转城乡收入差距不断扩大的趋势,必须转变财政支出市民导向的既定模式,进一步加大对农村地区的社会文教以及农林水务支出,扩大公共安全支出和社会保障支出在农村的覆盖率。     

Comparative Research with Net and Gross Income Data: An Evaluation of Two Netting Down Procedures for the LIS Database

Researchers seeking to perform country‐comparative and trend analyses using income data have to account for the fact that income surveys differ in whether income is measured gross or net of taxes and contributions. We discuss, develop, and evaluate two ‘netting down procedures’ for data in the LIS Database. Evaluations of these netting down procedures indicate that comparisons across gross and net datasets can be greatly improved when netting down procedures are applied. In several cases, however, substantial amounts of bias remain.