从期限错配看我国影子银行风险

影子银行业务存在借短贷长的特点,由此造成的期限错配是风险的主要来源。影子银行期限错配带来的流动性风险和信用风险正在积聚,一旦爆发,极易引发系统性金融风险,极具破坏力。     

固定资产投资对银行资产负债期限错配以及通胀的影响

本文运用向量自回归和脉冲响应分析了固定资产投资与银行资产负债期限错配、通胀的关系。实证表明固定资产的增长会加剧银行的资产负债错配,并会在未来对通胀形成压力。银行应谨慎对待中长期贷款,防止不良贷款的出现,政府应该促进以消费拉动经济的增长模式的发展。     

数字金融能缓解企业投融资期限错配吗

将数字金融与企业投融资期限错配纳入统一分析框架,实证检验数字金融对企业投融资期限错配的影响,研究发现：数字金融的发展能够有效抑制企业“短贷长投”行为,并且该效应主要通过企业融资约束的缓解与信息披露质量的提升而实现;数字金融对企业投融资期限错配的有益影响在制造业、中西部地区、金融发展程度高、成长性高与治理水平低等样本中更为显著;数字金融对企业投融资期限错配的抑制作用能够有效提升企业投资效率与降低企业违约风险。本文研究结论对于挖掘数字金融经济潜能与推动企业资源合理配置具有一定的参考价值。     

利率市场化、表外杠杆与银行脆弱性

利用2013—2019年商业银行面板数据,研究利率市场化及表外业务对银行脆弱性的影响,结果显示:利率市场化对银行脆弱性具有正向影响;表外业务发展对银行脆弱性具有二重作用,表外杠杆加剧银行脆弱性,而表外流动性创造则抑制银行脆弱性;以表外流动性创造作为门槛变量,表外杠杆对于商业银行脆弱性的影响存在双重门槛效应,随着表外流动性创造的提高,表外杠杆对脆弱性的加剧作用逐渐减弱.     

我国商业银行流动性紧张状况及成因分析

通过对于我国近一年来商业银行流动性紧缺局面的展示,立足于我国目前的商业银行存在流动性较紧的普遍现状并进行分析,找出影响流动性的原因。文章认为银行资金期限错配,国家存款准备金率和居民储蓄习惯是重要原因所在。     

税收征管数字化与企业投融资期限错配

近年来,企业投融资期限错配问题日益成为各类系统性风险的导火索。本文利用金税三期工程作为准自然实验,以2011—2020年A股上市公司为研究样本,采用多期双重差分法检验税收征管数字化对企业投融资期限错配的影响。研究发现,税收征管数字化会加剧企业投融资期限错配程度,主要呈现为债务结构短期化特征。机制检验发现,税收征管数字化通过降低企业避税程度、财务稳定性和企业现金流水平进而加剧投融资期限错配。在数字金融水平越高、经济增长压力越小的地区和债务融资成本越低、高管有金融背景的企业中,税收征管数字化对企业投融资期限错配的加剧程度有所缓解。此外,税收征管数字化下的企业投融资错配行为会增加企业经营风险,损害企业绩效。     

企业债券信用风险与银行流动性风险研究

在去杠杆背景下,通过对债券信用风险、银行流动性风险、银行表外业务及股票波动等金融风险交叉运行机制的分析,构建t-Garch-Copula模型对交叉传染风险进行度量。研究发现,银行流动性风险与债券信用风险存在较大的相互依存感染几率,且中型银行受债券信用风险感染的可能性最高。此外,实证结果表明银行是目前表外业务风险的主要承担者,其中小型银行受表外业务风险影响程度最大。     

由银行危机联想到银行脆弱性

在银行发展的一千多年的时间里,银行危机频频爆发,大至亚洲东南亚危机,小至一家银行的破产倒闭,可以说每个危机的表现形式都不尽相同。那么在纷繁复杂的危机表象背后是否都有共同点呢？是否银行有共同的一点或者几点使得它们总是不能避免危机的发生呢？这就使得我们想要剥开笼罩在各种不同危机表面的迷雾,来看看银行自身的脆弱性。本文前半部分介绍了银行危机,后半部分综述了银行危机的脆弱性,来试图找出使银行不可避免遭受危机的那个致命伤。     

地方国有企业的投融资期限错配:成因与治理

地方国有企业是中国经济发展的中坚力量,在供给侧结构性改革中应发挥带头作用,成为改革的主力军和先行者。目前地方国有企业存在的突出困境是债务水平过高,且面临较为严重的投融资期限错配问题。本文以2005—2013年中国工业企业数据库(CIED)中规模以上的非上市国有企业为样本,构建"投资-负债"模型分析短期债务变化量和长期投资额之间的动态关系,从预算软约束和金融市场结构两个维度剖析造成国有企业投融资期限错配的内在机理。研究发现:(1)我国央企和地方国企的投资更依赖新增债务而非留存收益,预算软约束问题严重;(2)金融市场提供长期资金的能力不足,国有企业进行长期债务融资的渠道受限;(3)国有企业的投资活动更依赖新增短期债务,存在投融资期限错配问题,且地方国有企业的投融资期限错配问题更加严重。本文的研究结果表明,为了实现地方国有企业去杠杆并优化债务结构,应从国企本身、银行信贷、政府行为和资本市场等方面进行综合治理,以提升地方国有企业的内源融资能力,并完善金融市场结构。     

互联网金融发展对银行流动性创造的影响研究

本文基于2006-2014年中国104家商业银行的非平衡面板数据进行实证分析,发现互联网金融的发展对银行流动性创造呈负相关关系,第三方支付、网络借贷以及互联网理财产品均不同程度地抑制了商业银行的流动性创造。同时,互联网金融的发展对银行资产端流动性产生显著影响,对银行负债端流动性以及表外业务流动性未产生明显影响。此外,互联网金融对于不同类型银行的影响也有区别,城市商业银行流动性创造受互联网金融的影响最为显著,其次是外资银行和大型股份制银行,而农村商业银行流动性创造并未受到显著影响。     

金融发展、金融脆弱与银行国际化

银行国际化一方面会促进金融发展,另一方面也将导致金融脆弱.本文以理论分析和实证检验相结合的方式,探讨了我国银行国际化从不同方面促进金融发展以及导致金融脆弱之间的逻辑关系,并对两种不同效应从整体宏观的角度进行比较,得出银行国际化正效应大于负效应的结论,从而在理论上回答了政策当局是否应当推行银行国际化的问题.     

Lending Relationships,Bank Default and Economic Activity

The paper reviews contributions in the literature, which lend theoretical and empirical credibility to the idea that the banking relationship is valuable and important for the firm. Banks offer a lending relationship as the solution to the firm's ongoing credit needs. Bank default disrupts this relationship. Hence risk in the banking sector influences the value of the relationship, the cost of corporate finance, and the level and growth of real activity. As bank default is often the result of fraud and internal irregularities, it is hard to predict. Bank default affects the economy through a number of different channels. The loss of the relationship, benefit for the firm is an important route through which the health of the banking sector influences real activity.     

商业银行偿付能力风险、流动性风险与银行体系风险

宏观审慎监管需要微观基础.研究商业银行偿付能力风险与流动性风险和银行体系风险的关系,有助于监管当局制定合适的监管工具,有效管理银行业的系统性风险.中国未曾爆发过真正意义的银行业危机,因而研究影响银行业系统性风险的因素成为难题.在借鉴风险二维定义属性基础上,本文对商业银行偿付能力风险和流动性风险如何影响银行业稳定进行了实证分析.分析结果表明,当商业银行偿付能力上升时,银行风险承担会上升,进而增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行流动性风险的上升也会增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行偿付能力提高时,流动性风险会降低;商业银行流动性风险上升时,偿付能力风险也上升.     

Foreign direct investment,institutional quality,economic freedom and entrepreneurship in emerging markets

This study investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment, institutional quality, economic freedom, and entrepreneurship in emerging markets. The research compares the capacity and appetite for business creation among high-income, low-income and emerging countries. The results are based on a panel study of data, from 2004 to 2009 for 87 countries, using as its source “The World Bank Entrepreneurship Snapshots” to look at the connection between business creation, institutional quality, market freedom and foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings reveal a strong positive relationship between institutional quality and business generation in all three of the above categories. The freedom to create businesses and invest has an impact on business generation in emerging countries, while the influence of international trade appears more important as a spur to the genesis of business in low-income countries. Finally, there is a direct and significant relationship between FDI and business development in emerging countries. This result is consistent with “the spillover theory of entrepreneurship” (,  and ).     

Bank capital regulation, asset risk, and subordinated uninsured debt

Whether more stringent capital requirements lead to reduced or to increased bank risk-taking has been discussed intensively in the academic literature. In this paper we drop the common but unrealistic assumptions that banks only issue deposits whose returns are guaranteed by a subsidised deposit insurance and that deposit insurance is free. We prove that with uninsured debt and a flat-rate deposit insurance premium the reaction of a bank to a higher capital requirement may change substantially. In some scenarios banks increase asset risk due to the enforcement of a more stringent capital requirement.     

财政支配假说、铸币税与中央银行独立性

鉴于发展中国家发展比较落后,经济总量不强,政府的财政行为影响了社会生活的各个方面,它支配并决定了中央银行独立性的程度,铸币税问题相应也显得尤为突出.本文据此以财政支配假说为理论基础,结合铸币税问题,在介绍发展中国家中央银行独立性概况后就中国中央银行独立性问题做一分析.     

Liquidity,exchange listing,and common stock performance

The liquidity of securities—the relationship between volume of trading and changes in market price—has won increasing recognition as an element of investment strategy in recent years. Relatively high liquidity is deemed to be a desirable characteristic of a stock, especially for the institutional investor, who typically trades in large volume. Thus, firms can generally be expected to seek means of enhancing the liquidity of their shares. One of the supposed means of accomplishing this is by listing one's stock on a national securities exchange. This paper examines the relationship of common stock liquidity to both exchange listing and price behavior during major up and down movements in the market. Our conceptual and empirical analyses indicate that liquidity is linked to price behavior; and we suggest that the view held by at least some corporate officers—that exchange listing increases liquidity—may be erroneous. More specifically, it appears that when the amount of firm capitalization is taken into account, exchange listing does not result in greater stock liquidity.     

Mining, Displacement and the World Bank: A Case Analysis of Compania Minera Antamina's Operations in Peru

The transformation in the structure of the world mining industry over the last decade has opened up enormous new regions for mineral exploration and development by transnational mining companies in countries in the South. This new access has inevitably brought mining companies into conflict with local communities. With the involvement of transnational advocacy networks and new global publics, these conflicts have prompted a growing transnational debate on the principles that ought to govern mining and community relationships. One effort to provide guidance on this question comes from the World Bank's Operational Directive 4.30 on Involuntary Resettlement. This paper examines the regulatory impact of this policy upon relationships between mining companies and communities, as well as its "legitimation effect" in providing standards which, once met, can serve to certify a degree of responsible behaviour on the part of the company. The analysis of the effects of the directive is taken up in the form a case study involving a transnational mining company operating in the Andes of Peru and the local communities impacted by its land acquisition project.     

银行利润对经济增长影响的实证分析——基于中美两国数据的对比

随着中国利率市场化改革的深化,银行拥有更多的经营自主权,但银行在信贷市场中所处的垄断地位却没有随着利率市场化改革而相应改变。运用VECM模型对中国12家上市银行及同时期美国商业银行的利润增长对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明美国的银行利润增长显著促进了经济发展。相比之下,中国银行利润增长对经济发展的长期影响并不显著,而四大国有银行利润增长对经济发展有显著的阻碍作用,非国有银行利润增长则对经济发展有显著的促进作用。四大国有银行在信贷市场中的垄断地位导致其对经济发展产生阻碍,这意味着中国利率市场化改革及资本市场改革仍不彻底。因此,应鼓励非国有股份制银行发展,并进一步深化利率市场化改革及资本市场改革。