家庭债务的变动与居民消费的过度敏感性:来自中国的证据

通过引入家庭债务变量对LC-PIH模型进行扩展,并运用动态最小二乘(DOLS)方法、误差修正模型、暂时性—持久性因子分解和脉冲响应进行实证分析,结果表明:家庭债务、收入和财富的持久性变动对消费存在显著的促进效应,收入的持久性变动影响最大,其后依次为财富和家庭债务;不同于传统分析框架的结论,不但财富的持久性变动会影响消费,其暂时性变动也会影响消费,但收入的暂时性变动对消费的影响并不显著;在家庭债务和财富的持久性和暂时性变动共同作用下,消费变动更为剧烈。因此,政策当局一方面要稳步提升居民预期收入水平,完善消费信贷的相关政策,以推动消费的稳步增长;另一方面还应密切关注家庭负债水平,以防范家庭过度负债而可能引发的债务收缩,导致消费的大幅下滑。     

消费信贷对消费需求的影响效应分析

本文选取中国和美国1990-2004年消费信贷与居民消费的数据,对消费信贷对消费需求的影响效应进行分析比较,结果表明,在现阶段,由于我国经济改革造成的不确定性预期增强、居民贫富差距扩大及消费的挤出效应等原因,消费信贷对居民消费的刺激作用很不显著.扩大消费需求的根本举措在于提高居民收入水平,减少收入差距,完善社会保障体系.     

浅析消费信贷发展中存在的问题及对策

在我国现阶段发展消费信贷中尚存在一些问题，如商家、政府的信用危机及个人信用制度缺乏、贫富分化日趋明显等，据此必须探讨解决这些问题的途径，建立起配套的信用消费制度，解决居民收入增长及贫富分化问题，适时发展多种形式的消费信贷等方法，从而使信用消费成为推动经济发展强大力量。     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION,CREDIT RATIONING AND HOUSEHOLDS' DEBT

In this paper, we present a model of an economy with household debt, and discuss the conditions under which financial fragility arises. Financial instability is driven by distributive effects. In addition to the income transfers associated with interest payments, the accumulation of debt feeds back with the distribution of income between labour and capital. The model also gives a central role to banks and credit rationing. Contrary to the existing literature, credit supply does not depend on the characteristics of borrowers, but on those of banks. There is a feedback channel between the health of the financial system and the quantity of credit in the economy. We show that there is a diversity of channels through which financial fragility may arise. We identify three channels: a debt–deflation effect à la Fisher, a credit‐financed consumption boom and an exhilarating debt effect.     

Payday Loan and Pawnshop Usage: The Impact of Allowing Payday Loan Rollovers

Millions of US households rely on payday loans and pawnshops for short‐term credit. Payday loan interest rates are as high as 25% per 2‐ to 4‐week loans and individuals use a post‐dated check to secure the loan. Pawnshop usage is available for anyone with collateral. This article examines whether individuals using payday loans in states where rollovers are allowed are more likely to also use pawnshops together with payday loans. I find that this is true for individuals who make less than $30,000, but it does not hold for those with higher levels of income. There may be some complementary relationships between payday loan rollovers and pawnshops for these lower‐income individuals. These results are important when considering whether to allow payday loan rollovers.     

CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH FROM A RICARDIAN PERSPECTIVE*

A new way of imposing the Ricardian closure is proposed through a dynamic consumption function along Keynesian lines. The dynamic consumption function relates consumption to current income and to the accumulated stock of consumer durables. In this way the dynamics of consumption and effective demand become dependent on consumer spending on durables. Using the dynamic consumption function within a simplified Harrod–Domar growth framework, it is shown that there is no independent consumption function in the long run as the Ricardian closure implies. The long‐run propensity to consume is an equilibrium relation, not a behavioural parameter.     

Objective measures as a predictor of late payments by high‐risk borrowers

Manufactured homes (also known outside the US as prefabricated homes) are a viable housing option for low‐income buyers, but traditional mortgages are not available for purchase of manufactured homes because of a perception of higher risk of default among purchasers of manufactured homes. Research suggests that creditscoring models which incorporate objective data such as income, debt‐to‐income ratio and credit history result in an accurate and objective predictive tool to estimate likelihood of late payments and default among traditional home buyers. This study showed that these same models can be applied similarly to purchasers of manufactured homes. A Tobit model was developed to evaluate which factors most accurately predict default and late payment behaviour among borrowers who purchased a manufactured home. The model showed that when decomposed into the probability of making a late payment and number of late payments, credit score and income are both significant predictors in both sets of borrowers of both the probability of making a late payment and the number of late payments. The higher the credit score, the less likely the borrower is to make a late payment.     

当前国内消费形势与增进我国消费的政策建议

本文首先对我国当前的消费形势进行了总体分析，接着针对上述问题，提出了一系列增进我国消费的政策建议，包括：构建中国的消费政策体系，加快社会保障制度建设，增强居民的消费信心，切实增加居民收入，促使消费者转变消费观念，加快推进消费信贷等。     

Idiosyncratic use of credit facilities by consumers in an emerging economy

A worldwide increase in household debt since the turn of the century has created considerable concern about the indebtedness of households, especially those in emerging economies that have been hit particularly hard by the global economic slump. In this study, the credit consumption of consumers in Swaziland (N = 264) was investigated by means of a survey that aimed to identify and describe factors that encouraged consumers' use of credit, the influence of credit on their buying behaviour when choosing major household appliances or furniture as well as consumers' knowledge of the conditions of credit facilities that were available for their use in retail. Findings revealed that consumers unequivocally appreciate the convenience that is associated with credit, specifically to cope with unexpected purchases, to benefit from special offers and opportunity to afford expensive goods. These advantages apparently negate the negative consequences such as high interest rates and strain on household budgets. Mean scores that were obtained in the knowledge test that only reflected upon credit agreements that respondents have actually entered into in the past, confirmed their ignorance pertaining to their contractual obligations and their consequent vulnerability. Consumers' age and gender seem to have noteworthy consequences for efforts to enhance informed consumer decision‐making. Younger females were significantly better informed that their older counterpart while the reverse was true for males, although differences were not significant. The significant inverse relationship between income and the LS‐means for the credit knowledge test differ from findings in developed countries and provide valuable opportunity for further investigation.     

The use of small instant loans among young adults – a gateway to a consumer insolvency?

The aim of this paper is to study 18‐ to 29‐year‐old Finnish consumers' use of instant small loans (i.e. SMS loan) and other consumer credit services that have increased notably in the past few years. We examine what kind of expenditures instant credit is used for and focus also on young consumers' financial situation and their perceptions of themselves as money handlers. The research method is quantitative, and data are derived from an open online survey (n = 1610). Our results reveal that consumer credit is used by young people in all income brackets and employment positions. However, there is a clear connection between certain life‐course stages (young, single parent), financial positions (low income), employment situations (marginal) and the propensity to take instant loans and consumer credit. The young people who take an instant loan once are likely to do it again. Typical purposes of use included buying alcohol, cigarettes and partying. For some consumers, the use of small loans is part of controlled and economical use of money. However, particularly in the low‐income brackets, it is also common to buy food and to repay credit or interest. Young people, who use instant loans recognize flaws in their money management and see themselves as ‘wasteful’ consumers more often than those who do not use instant loans. On the basis of this empirical study, it is unquestioned that young people's consumer education needs to be strengthened. In Finland, this need has already been recognized in both consumer policy and teacher education.     

Status consumption and ethnicity in Bolivia: evidence from durables ownership

The ‘compensatory consumption’ hypothesis advanced by Caplovitz in 1967 predicts that households facing racial or ethnic discrimination tend to spend heavily on socially visible consumption goods to make up for their low‐status position in society. This paper provides an empirical test of this prediction in Bolivia, where people of indigenous origin face social exclusion. Using recent household survey data, we examine whether low‐income households of indigenous origin overspend on socially visible durable goods relative to equally poor, non‐indigenous households. We find a marked difference in the propensity for compensatory consumption between the two largest indigenous groups in Bolivia.     

广东城镇居民消费结构变动分析

本文认为,近年来广东城镇居民消费结构变化速度加快,生存型商品平均消费倾向呈下降趋势,医疗保健、交通通讯、文娱教育、居住等商品平均消费倾向呈上升趋势;食品、交通通讯、文娱教育边际消费倾向较高,衣着、家用品、医疗保健用品边际消费倾向较低;食品、衣着、家用品需求收入弹性较小,医疗保健、交通通讯、文娱教育、居住收入弹性较大;消费需求价格弹性都小于零,且自价格弹性都大于互价格弹性。文章提出,为了优化广东城镇居民消费结构,应增加居民收入,促进居民消费结构升级;调整收入分配政策,平衡收入差距;合理调整产业结构和商品结构,进一步推进消费信贷政策。     

PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION CREDIT IN A CONTINUOUS‐TIME MODEL OF THE CIRCUIT OF CAPITAL

This paper offers a characterization of the content of production and consumption credit based on the Marxian circuit of capital and a distinctive approach to credit relations. All credit allocations make the same contribution to demand, sales and profit flows, and, consequently to the pace of accumulation. Production credit uniquely contributes to investment by borrowers. Consumption credit thus effects a form of leveraging of social capital, boosting profitability while strengthening productive constraints and financial risks bearing on credit relations. Systems with higher allocations of consumption credit experience lower scopes for growth‐enhancing credit extension, and face higher aggregate levels of credit risk than comparable economies.     

基于信用风险修正的多阶段银行贷款组合优化决策模型

针对银行的信用风险和贷款的周期性等问题,建立一个基于信用风险修正的多阶段银行贷款组合优化决策模型,该模型在多阶段模型中考虑了信用风险修正问题,根据模型的特点给出了把Monte Carlo模拟的动态算法和差分进化的多阶段算法相结合的求解方法,前者求解银行各类贷款的期望收益率,后者求解每一阶段银行对各类贷款的最优投资比重。数值试验表明所建立的模型是合理的且符合商业银行的实际操作要求,给出的方法是有效的和可行的。     

发展农村消费信贷 开拓农村消费市场

农村消费信贷发展的严重滞后,是近几年来农村消费市场持续低迷的一个很重要的原因。深入分析农村消费信贷中存在的诸多问题,提出了从增加农民收入、积极推进农村信用社改革、加快农村基础设施建设和提高农民素质等几方面着手来发展农村消费信贷,振兴我国农村市场,实现农村可持续发展。     

收入分配差距、金融信贷约束与中国外贸失衡

20世纪90年代以来,与中国持续性贸易失衡相伴随的重要现象,就是国内收入分配差距问题日益突出。收入分配差距的拉大,使得中低收入者因占有的社会总产出份额下降而致使其消费和投资能力相对下降,在金融信贷约束下,"过剩"的总产出又难以通过借贷的方式在国内进行消费和投资,最终"被迫"出口到国际市场,因而对贸易失衡产生了重要影响。进一步的计量检验结果验证了上述理论假说的正确性,即:收入分配差距和金融信贷约束的确是中国外贸失衡的重要促成因素。据此,在中国实施进出口贸易平衡发展战略的过程中,应该更加关注缩小收入分配差距在其中所起的重要作用。     

Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Labor Income: A Continuous Time Approach

This paper studies the consumption and portfolio selection problem of an agent who is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk. The paper investigates how the optimal consumption and asset allocation policies deviate from the case where the financial market is perfect, i.e., the case where there are no liquidity constraints and uninsurable income risk. In particular, the paper shows that, for a given level of financial wealth and labor income, optimal consumption is smaller and the optimal level of risk taking is lower in the case where the agent is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk than in the case where the financial market is perfect. The paper also discusses how the agent assesses the value of lifetime labor income and relates this evaluation to optimal consumption and asset allocation policies.     

Small business loan securitization and interstate risk sharing

Do credit risk transfers in general, and loan sales and securitizations in particular, by financial institutions enhance credit availability and financial stability? Or do they allow assets of poor credit quality to spread to unprotected investors, and thus create financial crises and destroy values? In this paper, we contribute to the continuing debate by examining the effect of small business loan securitizations on interstate personal income insurance. Using data of U.S. banks for the period 1995–2008, we find that small business loans securitizations contribute to the smoothening of state personal income volatility, and that this contribution is stronger in states where small businesses play a more important role in the local economy.     

Consumer credit in an emerging economy: Demand,supply, and liquidity restrictions

Using a rich set of microdata from a credit union in Colombia, we estimate the factors behind the consumer credit demand and provide evidence of credit constraints from different perspectives including the lack of response of low-income customers to the interest rate. We also show the different ways in which the credit union implements additional rationing such as denying and trimming down the credit requests. For this, the credit union uses the scores and indebtedness of individuals. Finally, we estimate the supply of consumer credit where the interest rate, income, scores, and indebtedness are fundamental.     

Use of microcredit for household income and consumption smoothing by low income communities

This paper discusses findings of a study that investigated income, savings and consumption patterns of low income people and critical factors that influence the use of microcredit—a form of small instant loans targeted for low income people—for household income and consumption smoothing. The sample of the study consisted of households from low income communities living in a lower‐middle income country—Sri Lanka. It was found that microcredit borrowers were using the loans for purposes that can be identified as income and consumption smoothing, which is beyond the ideas and intended practice of microcredit. The findings suggest that the consequences of using microcredit for income and consumption smoothing could be costly for households and the society at large.