Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets: Prospects,Pitfalls and Policy Implications

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the pattern of debt and equity portfolio flows (FPI) to the developing countries in recent years and discusses some policy and operational measures to facilitate greater FPI flows. Our analysis suggests that many countries need to adopt more aggressive measures to attract foreign portfolio investment. The major areas where improvements can facilitate FPI are identified as: political and legal environment, private sector development, improvement in macro-economic management, development of capital markets, strengthening of financial institutions, enforcement of market regulations, improvements in market operations, and effective dissemination of market information.     

Economic Freedom and Cross‐Border Acquisitions from Emerging Markets into Developed Economies

Extending the home base perspective by considering investors' parent countries, this study examines the effect of economic freedom (EF) on emerging‐market enterprises' (EMEs) overseas acquisition completion in developed countries. Using a large data set of 5,174 cross‐border acquisition deals from ten major emerging markets (EMs) during 1985–2011, we find that (1) the probability of deal completion is positively associated with the levels of EF of the acquirers' countries, the acquirers' parent and the target; (2) the EF of the countries of acquirers' parents has a substitutive effect on that of the acquirers' countries; (3) the difference of EF between the targets' countries and the countries of acquirers' parents negatively influences deal completion; and (4) the difference of EF between the targets' countries and the acquirers' countries negatively influences deal completion. These findings have important theoretical implications for international business scholars, as well as practical implications for managers and for policymakers of EMEs that are active in foreign direct investment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Consequences of Value in Retail Markets

We suggest that merchandise value, affect and two types of loyalty are related in the retail domain. Based on ideas from cognitive psychology on the structure of value we suggest that merchandise value is directly related to repurchase loyalty but indirectly related to attitudinal loyalty via the construct of store affect. Additionally, our model proposes that attitudinal loyalty is related to willingness to pay a price premium while repurchase loyalty is not. We also control for the effects of store familiarity and convenience. We test our hypotheses in three studies and find that, in general, our model is well supported at the level of both individual consumers and stores. Additionally, we find that perceived retailer differentiation moderates the effect of merchandise value on store affect.     

Unintended Consequences: How Suppliers Compensate for Price Concessions and the Role of Organizational Justice in Buyer‐Supplier Relations

“You get what you pay for” is one of life's lessons that predominates in purchasing decisions individuals make in their personal lives. The results of this study suggest this lesson should also prevail among management when price‐related purchasing decisions in businesses are being made. An evaluation of over 1,700 purchasing instances across seven years of a longitudinal panel data set collected from Tier 1 production suppliers to the six major North American automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota, found that suppliers compensate for price concessions and price reduction pressure from the OEM in the year following the concession, by reducing product quality, service support, and R&D expenditures associated with goods provided to the OEM. This industry is particularly relevant because it is highly adversarial, yet at the same time reliant on interdependence. The results show that supplier price concessions granted to an OEM led to compensatory supplier behaviors of reduced quality and R&D expenditures toward that OEM. Further, the results suggest that the organizational justice dimensions of distributive justice, procedural justice, interpersonal justice, and informational justice can ameliorate negative supplier compensatory activities. A buyer–supplier relational environment that engenders organizational justice tactics such as open and honest communication with suppliers provides suppliers the expectation of an acceptable return on business over the long term, provides help to suppliers to reduce costs, and builds supplier trust of the OEM had generally positive effects on quality, service, and R&D expenditures. From a management perspective, these results indicate there is a very real risk versus reward issue associated with pressuring suppliers for price reductions.     

Intraday Volatility in Interest‐Rate and Foreign‐Exchange Markets: ARCH,Announcement, and Seasonality Effects

We explore the determinants of intraday volatility in interest‐rate and foreign‐exchange markets, focusing on the importance and interaction of three types of information in predicting intraday volatility: (a) knowledge of recent past volatilities (i.e., ARCH or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effects); (b) prior knowledge of when major scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report or Producer Price Index, will be released; and (c) knowledge of seasonality patterns. We find that all three information sets have significant incremental predictive power, but macroeconomic announcements are the most important determinants of periods of very high intraday volatility (particularly in the interest‐rate markets). We show that because the three information sets are not independent, it is necessary to simultaneously consider all three to accurately measure intraday volatility patterns. For instance, we find that most of the previously documented time‐of‐day and day‐of‐the‐week volatility patterns in these markets are due to the tendency for macroeconomic announcements to occur on particular days and at particular times. Indeed, the familiar U‐shape completely disappears in the foreign‐exchange market. We also find that estimates of ARCH effects are considerably altered when we account for announcement effects and return periodicity; specifically, estimates of volatility persistence are sharply reduced. Separately, our results show that high volatility persists longer after shocks due to unscheduled announcements than after equivalent shocks due to scheduled announcements, indicating that market participants digest information much more quickly if they are prepared to receive it. However, contrary to results from equity markets, we find no evidence of a meaningful difference in volatility persistence after positive or negative price shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 517–552, 2001     

Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility

The volatility of capital flows to emerging market (EM) countries and frequency of financial crises have imposed high welfare costs on the countries involved. The empirical literature provides, at best, a mixed picture on the relationship between long‐run EM country growth and financial integration. Meanwhile, the prevailing policy discourse regarding reform of the international financial system remains incomplete: the focus has largely been on either institutional and policy measures required of EM countries or international crisis‐resolution procedures. The role played by private financial markets and institutions in the developed world has not received adequate attention. This paper describes some of the structural features inherent in today's financial markets that directly contribute to the instability in EM capital flows.     

Monetary Policy,Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View

‘Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin’. Charles Kindleberger's book Manias, Panics and Crashes points out that speculation and crises have always been present: the world economic crisis of the 20th century, the South Sea bubble in the 18th century, and the tulip mania in the first part of the 17th century. Starting with the Japanese bubble in the 1980s we take the reader on a tour through 20 years of bubbles in emerging markets and industrial countries which have recently culminated in the 2007/08 US subprime market crisis. We explain the global stock market and real estate booms based on the real and monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek, Wicksell and Schumpeter, arguing that ample liquidity supply originating in the large industrialised countries has contributed – independent from the exchange rate regime – to overinvestment cycles in new and emerging markets around the globe. The policy implication is to keep interest rates not too low for too long in response to bursting bubbles.     

Corporate Governance Reform and CEO Compensation: Intended and Unintended Consequences

Recent scandals allegedly linked to CEO compensation have brought executive compensation and perquisites to the forefront of debate about constraining executive compensation and reforming the associated corporate governance structure. We briefly describe the structure of executive compensation, and the agency theory framework that has commonly been used to conceptualize executives acting on behalf of shareholders. We detail some criticisms of executive compensation and associated ethical issues, and then discuss what previous research suggests are likely intended and unintended consequences of some widely proposed executive compensation reforms. We explicitly discuss the following recommendations for reform: require greater independence of compensation committees, require executives to hold equity in the corporation, require greater disclosure of executive compensation, increase institutional investor involvement in corporate governance (including executive compensation), and require firms to expense stock options on their income statements. We provide a brief summary discussion of ethical issues related to executive compensation, and describe possible future research.     

Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitions Policy in Service Markets

We provide facts showing that in service markets: (i) restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) are under reform, (ii) cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions dominate as the entry mode of FDI, and (iii) there is often a high market concentration. Based on these facts, we present a model for analyzing cross-border merger and acquisition policy in liberalized service markets taking into account efficiency and market power effects. Our findings suggest that a merger policy, but not a discriminatory policy towards foreigners, seems warranted. Moreover, policies ensuring competition for domestic target firms seem warranted. In this vein, harmonization of the EU takeover regulations may particularly benefit assets owners in countries with many target firms.     

Corporate Governance and Institutional Transparency in Emerging Markets

This paper posits that differences in corporate governance structure partly result from differences in institutional arrangements linked to business systems. We developed a new international triad of business systems: the Anglo-American, the Communitarian and the Emerging system, building on the frameworks of Choi et al. (British Academy of Management (Kynoch Birmingham) 1996, Management International Review 39, 257–279, 1999). A common factor determining the success of a corporate governance structure is the extent to which it is transparent to market forces. Such transparency is more than pure financial transparency; as it can also be based on factors such as governmental, banking and other types of institutional transparency mechanism. There may also be a choice for firms to adopt voluntary corporate disclosure in situations where mandatory disclosure is not established. The Asian financial crisis of 1997–1999 and the more recent corporate governance scandals such as Enron, Andersen and Worldcom in the United States and Ahold and Parmalat in Europe show that corporate governance and business ethics issues exist throughout the world. As an illustration we focus on Asia’s emerging¹ markets, as, both in view of the pressure of globalization and taking into account the institutional arrangements peculiar to the emerging business system, these issues are important there. Particularly for those who have to find an accommodation between the corporate governance structures and disclosure standards of the Emerging system and those of the Anglo-American and Communitarian systems.     

The Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Supply Chain Members in Non‐BRIC Emerging Markets

The global economic crises that began in 2008 had profound effects on the supply chains of many multinational firms across all industries including altering some fundamental supply chain characteristics. This study discusses the effects of the crises on lower‐level supply chain members in the context of the textile and garment industry in emerging markets. The fieldwork for this research and the integration of new United Nations data provide evidence for the vulnerability of those supply chain members that provide only commoditized basic services that do not depend on talent skills or resource availability. Most of these, less sophisticated supply chain members are located in non‐BRIC emerging economies, including Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Haiti, Honduras, and so on. We present a framework that is transferable across industries. The framework is useful for managers when evaluating the feasibility and reliability of different suppliers from emerging and developing countries in particular. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Foreign Ownership Restriction and Momentum – Evidence from Emerging Markets

This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on stock price efficiency and return predictability in emerging markets. It finds that stocks fully investible for foreign investors exhibit stronger price momentum than non‐investible stocks. The difference in momentum effects between stocks with different levels of investibility cannot be fully explained by world market risk, size, turnover, or country‐specific factors. Further tests show that fully investible stocks have no post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and their short‐term momentum reverses over a longer horizon. These results show that the stronger momentum of highly investible stocks does not appear to be driven by foreign investors' underreaction to firm‐specific information, but is more likely to be generated by their positive feedback trading.     

Labor Markets and Monetary Policy

Headline employment numbers have been consistent with previous recoveries from recession. Behind the headlines, however, there are troubling data that suggest that the recovery of labor markets is weaker than what would be suggested by prior experience. In particular, labor force participation is weaker than expected, and the duration of unemployment has been longer. This paper describes the dimensions of the problems, their implications, and issues concerning whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could have done more to forestall them—particularly with respect to its Large Scale Asset Purchases program.     

汇丰在新兴市场中最看好中、印等国

中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯是汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC,HBC)旗下Halbis Partners在全球范围内优先考虑投资的新兴市场．这不仅因为它们具有可观的经济规模,还因为在公司治理水平不断提高及政治局面相对稳定的背景下,这些国家蕴含着巨大的经济增长潜力。     

Foreign Ownership and Corporate Cash Holdings in Emerging Markets

This article examines the link between foreign ownership and corporate cash holdings. We utilize a data sample of firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange covering the period 2007–2015. Employing different econometric techniques for panel data, we find that higher foreign ownership is associated with more corporate cash holdings. This finding suggests that foreign investors in the Vietnam stock market are subject to precautionary motive and agency motive forcing firms to hold more cash. However, the outcome suggests potential agency problems because managers might subsequently use this cash reserve for their own advantages. These problems are even more pronounced in emerging markets where investor protection mechanism is weak. Accordingly, this highlights the importance of a monitoring mechanism to refrain corporate managers from investing in value‐destroying projects.     

Choice of Market Entry Mode in Emerging Markets

Summary

This study explores the antecedents of market entry strategy in emerging markets and examines the market environmental, transaction-specific, competitive strategic factors and organizational capability that influence the choice of market entry mode. Empirical results based on a survey of Japanese companies support the combined relevance of their factors on choice of market entry mode in an emerging market. Although most of the mode of entry research assumes that the firm has the option to choose any entry mode in a given market, this study examines the impact of the factors in the internationalization process of firms. The results suggest that experiential knowledge has an immense impact on the choice of entry mode in China, an emerging market with high environmental uncertainty, but also high market potential. The empirical findings also show the important influences of risk-absorption capability and risk-dispersion mechanism on the choice of entry mode into the Chinese market.