Trade Logistics in Developing Countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

This paper presents an analysis of obstacles facing exporting firms in developing countries by diagnosing the efficiency of trade logistics in the Middle East and North Africa region (MNA). Using logistics chain analysis for six export commodities, it presents evidence that transport and non‐transport logistics costs for export commodities from the MNA region are quite substantial, ranging from 7–25 per cent of landed product prices. Underlying these costs are key bottlenecks identified as: inefficient trucking and transport services, low export volume leading to long shipping times and the need for costly inventory accumulation, aggressive, obstructive customs authorities and procedures, low and inconsistent product quality, an underdeveloped transport intermediary sector, inefficient cross‐border transit procedures and others. Recommended actions to address developing a national transport policy, overhauling the regulatory regime for the trucking sector, export promotion measures, increasing competition in port and air freight services, reorienting customs authorities towards trade facilitation and developing cross‐border transit procedures similar to the TIR Carnets model.     

初级产品出口关税的作用探析

长期以来,相对于其他商品而言,初级产品出口价格的不断下降给许多仍靠少数出口产品获取外贸收入的发展中国家带来了一系列的挑战,使其成为国际贸易中长期存在且备受关注的焦点之一。因此,许多发展中国家便采取课征初级产品出口税的政策以图解决其所面临的问题。本文在分析初级产品出口关税对出口国及其贸易伙伴的影响基础上,着重论述了采取出口税政策解决出口价格波动带来挑战的利弊,并在最后以一些实证研究的实例说明了这一政策实施效果的不确定性。     

Trade and technology adoption

This paper endogenizes firms' choices of production technology in what would be a standard Melitz model otherwise. The responses of firms' productivity to trade liberalization are heterogenous: exporters, on average, improve their level of technology adoption, whereas nonexporters downgrade their level of technology adoption. The degree to which firms adjust production technology depends on domestic market size, export destination market size, trade impediments, and export status. The conflicting empirical results of the impact of trade liberalization on exporters' productivity are rationalized by showing that changes in different trade costs (variable vs. fixed costs) affect firms' productivity differently. We calibrate the model's parameters to match firms' characteristics in the global economy. The results indicate that endogenous productivity increases the gains from trade liberalization.     

Trade facilitation and the extensive margin

The literature on trade facilitation has mostly focused on implications for trade volumes. However, recent theoretical contributions have emphasized that trade costs – such as transaction costs related to cross-border trade procedures – affect both the traded volumes of ‘old’ goods (the intensive margin) and the range of traded goods (the extensive margin). This article therefore tests whether trade facilitation affects the extensive margin by counting the number of 8-digit products that are exported from developing to EU countries, and using this as the dependent variable in an estimation. Moreover, it also tests whether the extensive margins in differentiated and homogeneous goods are affected in the same way by transaction costs. Estimation results suggest that if export transaction costs – proxied by the number of days needed to export a good – declined by 1%, the number of exported differentiated and homogeneous products would rise by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Policy simulations further illustrate that if all countries were as efficient at the border as the most efficient country at the same level of development, the number of exported differentiated and homogeneous products would increase by 62% and 26%, respectively.     

中国东北三省与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局时空演变

利用2003年~2017年东北三省与"一带一路"沿线国家进出口贸易数据,采用地理集中度、位序变动指数、综合贸易份额指数、HM指数分析东北三省与沿线国家贸易格局及特征的变化。结果表明:东北三省与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易往来日益密切,贸易总额大幅增加,尽管东北三省与东北亚地区的贸易份额有所下降,但东北亚地区始终是东北三省的贸易重心。东北三省与沿线国家贸易依赖度不断提高,具有明显的不对称性,表现出显著的单向依赖。从进出口商品结构来看,东北三省向沿线国家出口的资源密集型和劳动密集型商品占比下降,技术密集型商品占比有较大提升,出口商品更加多元化,附加值和科技含量进一步提高,进口商品结构相对稳定,主要为资源密集型和技术密集型商品。     

中国出口技术复杂度真的赶上发达国家了吗

使用HS(1992)六位数分类商品贸易数据,从"出口重叠指数"、出口商品"相对平均单位价值"、不同技术层面上的出口商品"相对平均单位价值"三个方面,以部分发达国家为比较对象,实证考察了中国出口技术复杂度变动趋势。结果发现,与现有大多研究结论不同:中国出口技术复杂度与发达国家相比,尚存一定差距,特别是在高技术密集型出口产品领域,差距较大,而目前对发达国家的追赶上,主要表现在中等技术密集型产品领域。中国出口品的"专业化"既没有与发达国家"趋同",其技术复杂度也未赶上发达国家,中国出口增长不会导致发达国家所谓"工资收入不平等"和"贸易条件恶化";立足现实比较优势,顺应国际分工发展大势,应是未来一段时间内中国进一步提升出口技术复杂度的出发点。     

如何跨越贸易壁垒——基于出口技术复杂度视角的研究

本文研究贸易壁垒对不同技术复杂度的中国产品形成的差异化的出口抑制作用。理论及作用机制分析从进口国的消费者需求层面考察,考虑到高技术复杂度产品对消费者效用的额外提升作用;实证分析则主要构建交互项模型。理论和实证分析均发现贸易壁垒对技术复杂度越高的中国产品造成的出口抑制作用越弱,这表明提升中国出口产品的技术复杂度是帮助中国出口跨越贸易壁垒的有效手段。本文通过进一步实证研究还发现,中国向经济发展水平越低的国家出口,通过提高出口产品的技术复杂度来弱化贸易壁垒的出口抑制作用的效果越好。本文的研究将为中国出口跨越贸易壁垒并进一步促进中国出口提供有益的启示。     

The High-Value Commodity Export Effects of Standards in Africa

ABSTRACT

The stringency in standards usage, especially in developed markets, has trade effects, particularly for Africa. Thus, this study investigated the export effects of the EU standards for Africa in a two-step, Helpman et al. (2008) model for two high-value commodities. In all, 52 African countries were considered from 1995 to 2012. This study finds that fish standards are trade enhancing at the extensive margins, but not at the intensive margins. However, vegetable standards are trade inhibiting at both the extensive and intensive margins. Thus, these findings suggest that the impacts of standards on exports are commodity-specific.     

Trade Policy Issues in a Small African Economy: The Trade Policy Review of The Gambia 2004

The Gambia displays many of the classic characteristics of a small open economy, with the vulnerabilities that implies. The sum of its imports and exports are around 100 per cent of GDP, with a limited number of export commodities and a wide variety of imports, including some key staple foods. The Trade Policy Review of The Gambia 2004 provides a very helpful review and assessment of current trade patterns and policies. The latter rely predominantly on import and export taxes. While quite substantial trade reform measures have been implemented recently, these have led to only a very small reduction in the average tariff rate, and trade policy displays a substantial anti‐export bias. Other important issues highlighted by the Trade Policy Review include serious capacity constraints relating to trade policy, and a failure to discuss connections between trade policy and growth and poverty reduction – again common characteristics of many small economies.     

The effect of the Internet on international trade

We find that the Internet stimulates trade. Evidence from time-series and cross-section regressions shows a significant effect of the Internet on trade in recent years. Our results suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in the growth of web hosts in a country leads to about a 0.2 percentage point increase in export growth. For the average country in our sample, the Internet contributed to about a 1 percentage point increase in annual export growth from 1997 to 1999. We also find evidence of proximity-biased trade growth, i.e. that trade growth is lower for more distant countries, but we do not find evidence that the Internet has directly affected this bias. The evidence is consistent with a model in which the Internet reduces market-specific fixed costs of trade. In particular, we show that an Internet-related reduction in fixed costs is likely to enhance export growth. The model also shows that the Internet does not directly affect the relationship between distance and trade; however, to the extent that competition is enhanced as a result of its development, the Internet will increase the overall effect of distance on trade.     

China and the Trans‐Pacific Partnership: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved

The Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a new negotiation on cross‐border liberalisation of goods and service flows going beyond WTO disciplines and focused on issues such as regulation and border controls. This paper uses numerical simulation methods to assess the potential effects of a TPP agreement on China and also China's inclusion or exclusion on other countries. We use a numerical 11‐country global general equilibrium model with trade costs and inside money. Trade costs are calculated using a method based on gravity equations. TPP barriers potentially removable are trade costs less tariffs. Simulation results reveal that China will be slightly hurt by TPP initiatives in welfare when China is out, but the total production and export will be increased. Other non‐TPP countries will be mostly hurt in welfare, but member countries will mostly gain. If China takes part in TPP, she will significantly gain and increase other TPP countries' gain as well. The comparison of TPP effects and global free trade effects show that the positive effects of global free trade are stronger than TPP effects. Japan's joining TPP would be beneficial to both herself and most of other TPP countries, but which negative effects on China's welfare when out of TPP will increase further.     

Does aid for trade diversify the export structure of recipient countries?

The importance of aid for trade as a tool for facilitating trade, economic growth and social development has received attention since the concept was introduced in 2005. While one of the main targets of aid for trade is export diversification, reflecting the fact that the exports of many developing countries are concentrated in a small range of items, there have not been many efforts to measure the effect of aid for trade on export structure. This study, therefore, attempts to trace the relationship between aid for trade and 133 aid recipients' export structure between 1996 and 2013. Using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index to measure the degree of export concentration, the findings suggest that total aid for trade has reduced the concentration level in the short run. In the long run, on the other hand, aid for trade has had no significant effect on export structure of recipient countries. Only aid for building productive capacity, which is one of the three categories of aid for trade, contributes to lower concentration. Yet, this change is not caused by an increase in export diversity but by the redistribution of shares of existing products of a similar sophistication level.     

Induced clean technology adoption and international trade with heterogeneous firms

This paper introduces an environmental externality and factor-biased technology adoption into a trade model with heterogeneous firms. This study explores how firms’ decisions of technology adoption and of exports are affected by openness to trade and the stringency of environmental regulations. It shows that: (1) these decisions induced by tightened environmental policies depend upon whether the upgraded technology is labor-biased or emission-biased; (2) the environmental impact of trade cost reductions on the aggregate emissions and price of emissions permits varies with the factor-biased feature; and (3) regardless of the factor-biased feature, the trade cost reduction induces firms to export and to upgrade the factor-biased technology, while it forces the least productive firms to exit the market. Moreover, the model is further calibrated to simulate policy scenarios of bilateral and unilateral variations in trade variable costs and environmental policies. The bilateral reduction of emissions cap may contribute to welfare gains in both home and foreign countries. The unilateral action of tightening environmental policy in the home country may hurt the home country, but makes the foreign country better off.     

Do foreign workers reduce trade barriers? Microeconomic evidence

This paper provides evidence that foreign workers reduce firms’ trade costs and thus increase the probability that firms export. This informs both the literature on trade costs and the microeconomic literature on firms’ export behaviour. We identify the nationality of each worker in a large sample of German establishments and relate this to the exporting behaviour of these establishments. We allow for the possible endogeneity of an establishment's workforce by instrumenting the share of foreign workers with the regional distribution of foreign workers in the wider labour market. We find a significant effect of worker nationality on exporting which is not driven by the industrial, occupational or locational concentration of migrants. The effect is much stronger for senior occupations, who are more likely to have a role in exporting decisions by the establishment. The relationship is also stronger when we consider exports to particular regions and workers from these regions, consistent with a gravity model in which trade flows from country i to j are a function of migrants from j in i.     

Export diversification: How much does the choice of the trading partner matter?

This paper studies how a country's export diversification varies across destination markets. It develops an extension of the Romalis (2004) model which yields two testable predictions. According to the first, exports between similarly endowed countries (“South–South” and “North–North”) are more diversified than exports between differently endowed countries (“South–North” and “North–South”). The second implication is that, for given countries' production patterns, low bilateral trade costs lead to greater export diversification. These predictions find empirical support in a panel of 102 trade partners and 4998 HS-6 industries over the period 1995–2007. Results show that similarities between trading partners in physical capital, land and human capital endowments per worker are associated with more diversified bilateral exports. Exports are also more diversified when bilateral trade costs are relatively low.     

Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification

This paper shows that improved trade facilitation can help promote export diversification in developing countries. We find that 10 per cent reductions in the costs of international transport and domestic exporting costs (documentation, inland transport, port and customs charges) are associated with export diversification gains of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively, in a sample of 118 developing countries. Customs costs play a particularly important role in these results. Lower market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the effect is weaker (1 per cent). We also find evidence that trade facilitation has stronger effects on diversification in poorer countries. Our results are highly robust to estimation using alternative dependent and independent variables, different country samples, and alternative econometric techniques. We link these findings to recent advances in trade theory that emphasise firm heterogeneity, and trade growth at the extensive margin.     

DOES HYSTERESIS OCCUR IN TRADE? SOME EVIDENCE FOR BILATERAL EXPORT FLOWS AT A DISAGGREGATED LEVEL

This article shows that hysteresis effects can be specific to certain commodities and/or to trade with particular countries. We perform two tests to investigate two different implications of the hysteresis hypothesis. The first implication is that the relative price elasticity of demand for exports rises when a market becomes more competitive. The second implication is that relative export prices are insensitive to changes in the exporter's relative exchange rate. We find that hysteresis is not an insignificant phenomenon for some specific goods. Out of 14 products we can accept Baldwin's hysteresis hypothesis for three: manufacture of drugs and medicines, manufacture of office computing and accounting machinery, and manufacture of radio, television, and communication equipment. These are sectors with higher than average sunk costs in terms of advertising expenditure.     

Free trade networks

The paper examines the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) as a network formation game. We consider an n-country model in which (possibly asymmetric) countries trade differentiated industrial commodities. We show that if all countries are symmetric, the complete FTA network is pairwise stable and it is the unique stable network if industrial commodities are not highly substitutable. We also compare FTAs and customs unions (CUs) as to which of these two regimes facilitates global trade liberalization, noticing that unlike CUs, each signatory of an FTA can have another FTA without consent of other member countries.     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.