A Note on Non‐Stationary Prices

The concepts of ‘real'’ and ‘nominal’ values or ‘real’ and ‘nominal’ rates of profit in the presence of non‐stationary prices are discussed. It is shown that the rate of profit depends on the choice of the numeraire if—and only if—relative prices change over time. In this case there are as many real rates as there are products, factors or bundles of products and factors. Although the rate of profit may vary with the choice of the numeraire, the ranking of processes according to profitability—and hence the choice of technique—is not affected.     

RECONSIDERING THE INVESTMENT–PROFIT NEXUS IN FINANCE‐LED ECONOMIES: AN ARDL‐BASED APPROACH

A Post‐Keynesian growth model is developed, in which financial variables are explicitly taken into account. Variants of an investment function are estimated econometrically, applying the ARDL (auto‐regressive distributed lag)‐based approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3), pp. 289–326). The econometric results are discussed with respect to a remarkable phenomenon that can be observed for some important OECD countries since the early 1980s: accumulation has generally been declining while profit shares and rates have shown a tendency to rise. We concentrate on one potential explanation of this phenomenon, which is particularly relevant for the USA and relies on a high propensity to consume out of capital income.     

RATING BASED LÉVY LIBOR MODEL

In this paper, we consider modeling of credit risk within the Libor market models. We extend the classical definition of the default‐free forward Libor rate and develop the rating based Libor market model to cover defaultable bonds with credit ratings. As driving processes for the dynamics of the default‐free and the predefault term structure of Libor rates, time‐inhomogeneous Lévy processes are used. Credit migration is modeled by a conditional Markov chain, whose properties are preserved under different forward Libor measures. Conditions for absence of arbitrage in the model are derived and valuation formulae for some common credit derivatives in this setup are presented.     

THE WAGE–WAGE‐ . . . ‐WAGE–PROFIT RELATION IN A MULTISECTOR BARGAINING ECONOMY

The equalization of profit rates across industries subject to firm‐level bargaining over wages generates an interindustry wage structure with higher wages in capital‐intensive sectors. The familiar inverse wage–profit relation gives way to a wage–wage‐ . . . ‐wage–profit surface on which the profit rate can vary directly with the wage paid in an individual industry. Institutional changes that decrease workers' bargaining power and increase the incomes of the unemployed tend to compress the wage distribution; these changes draw political support from cross‐class coalitions of low‐wage workers and capital‐intensive firms. Some capital‐using, labor‐saving technical changes that raise capitalists' profits in current prices lower the equilibrium profit rate.     

On the Link Between Exchange‐rate Regimes,Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in Small European Countries, 1979–2000

We investigate international monetary‐policy transmission under different exchange‐rate and capital‐account regimes in eleven small, open economies during the 1980s and 1990s. We find no systematic link between ex‐post monetary‐policy autonomy and exchange‐rate regimes. Capital controls appear to have provided a degree of temporal insulation from foreign monetary policy shocks, though not strict autonomy. The results are consistent both with short‐term autonomy for small countries even under fixed exchange rates and an open capital account, and with long‐term dependence under flexible exchange rates and an independent stability target. Results also indicate that euro‐area market interest rates are significantly more responsive to the development of the corresponding US rate than were the previous national rates.     

On the “Invisible Inventory Conundrum” in RFID‐Equipped Supply Chains: A Data Science Approach to Assessing Tag Performance

Recent trade reports suggest that RFID implementation continues to lag lofty projections. A primary concern is that, despite the high cost of implementing RFID systems, realized read‐rates fall short of expectations. This results in the invisible inventory conundrum whereby tagged merchandise may still not be accurately represented in inventory records. Drawing from data science to address this issue, we ask: How can directed data mining models be used to identify laboratory test performance criteria for RFID tags that operate reliably across the idiosyncratic facilities (i.e., unique DCs, warehouses, and stores) that comprise apparel retailers’ supply chains? We investigate this question by advancing a methodology that integrates laboratory test performance data, field tests of RFID tags fixed to apparel items and scanned under normal operating conditions, and the application of five directed data mining models to the integrated data set of laboratory and field test results. Our analyses of 45,416 observations show that two directed data mining models may identify—with near‐100% accuracy—laboratory test criteria that discriminate tags having 99% or greater read‐rates in the field. Accordingly, our study validates a generalizable methodology for identifying technical performance standards for tags that operate reliably within apparel retailers’ supply chains.     

On Market Integration and Product R&D: A Monopoly Case

Applying a monopoly model with endogenous quality choice to the case of multiple national markets, we consider the effect of market integration on product R&D incentives (i.e., quality-improving), profit, and consumer surplus. We demonstrate that the effect of market integration depends on the difference in income distributions between two countries and the level of trade cost. In particular, if the difference in income distributions between two countries is large (small) and/or trade cost is low (high), market integration can decrease (increase) the level of product quality and social welfare in the two countries.     

Redistribution in a Neo‐Kaleckian Two‐country Model

We investigate the interaction between demand‐driven growth and income distribution in open economies, by combining expenditure‐switching and demand spillover effects in a neo‐Kaleckian two country model. First, we specify elasticities of wage share and real exchange rate to the money wage relative to labor productivity, in order to precisely describe the distributive pass‐through from money wages to the labor share and the real exchange rate. Second, we analyze the demand effects of an increase in the money wage for given labor productivity (a redistribution towards labor) in both Home and Foreign country, as well as globally. We derive closed form results for two identical countries. These results indicate that redistribution towards labor at Home: (i) always increases growth globally if Home is wage‐led, but can lead to lower growth at Home relative to Foreign; and (ii) will always imply lower growth at Home relative to Foreign if Home is profit‐led, but can still be growth‐enhancing at Home. Thus, to the extent that countries are concerned with their relative economic performance, a fallacy of composition can emerge. Numerical simulations suggest that these fallacies could indeed occur. As a consequence, ‘returns to coordination’ over international labor policies might be substantial.     

A division of the capitalist class and the market for money capital

In a one‐commodity economy populated by capitalists equipped with equal endowment but with heterogeneous linear production technology, a division of the capitalist class emerges endogenously. The capitalists with relatively weak technology, yielding the profit rate lower than the interest rate, become a money capitalist (lender), whereas the capitalists with relatively strong technology, yielding the profit rate greater than the interest rate, become an industrial capitalist (borrower). The equilibrium interest rate is derived by the associated demand and supply relation. From this setup of the model follow two essential relationships Marx establishes between the average profit rate and the interest rate: (a) that the profit (rate) sets a maximum limit of interest (rate), and (b) that the two rates are correlated in the long‐run. Lastly, the profit rate of financial sector is less than that of industrial sector due to the basic setup of the model where the industrial sector uses leverage to amplify the underlying capital profit rate, whereas the financial sector lacks intermediation technology, which would have enabled it to borrow profitably.     

Regimes of Interest Rates,Income Shares,Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD Economies

The first part of the paper deals with the effects of an exogenous variation in the monetary interest rate on the real equilibrium position of the economic system in a Kaleckian effective demand model. Different regimes of accumulation are derived and it is shown that a negative relation between the interest rate and the equilibrium rates of capacity utilization, accumulation and profit usually expected in post‐Keynesian theory only exists under special conditions. In the second part the model is applied to the data of some major OECD countries, the relevant coefficients are estimated and the relevance for an explanation of the course of GDP and capital stock growth since the early 1960s is discussed.     

Reversing the Similarity Effect in Stock‐Outs: A New Look at a Renowned Phenomenon in Consumers’ Brand Switching Behavior

Over 40 years of research has established the robustness of the similarity effect (SE; Tversky, 1972 ), which states that the introduction of new options into choice sets predominantly reduces the choice share of similar options. The present work examines whether the SE systematically reverses when real brands are excluded from assortment subsets, as is the case with stock‐outs in real purchase decisions. To this end, within‐subject decisions are examined under certain out‐of‐stock (OOS) conditions in an enhanced experimental design that resembles real shopping environments. Specifically, unforced choices of experienced consumers, inclusive of real payments, are observed for products in online transactions. The results of two studies corroborate the existence of a reserved SE. Specifically, the OOS‐induced switching patterns systematically refute the assumptions of classic economic theory, since consumers disproportionately switch to alternatives which are similar to the unavailable item in contrast to dissimilar substitutes. Finally, managerial implications and potential directions for follow‐up research in the general domain of marketing are deduced.     

Sharing the value‐at‐risk under distributional ambiguity

This paper considers the problem of risk sharing, where a coalition of homogeneous agents, each bearing a random cost, aggregates their costs, and shares the value‐at‐risk of such a risky position. Due to limited distributional information in practice, the joint distribution of agents' random costs is difficult to acquire. The coalition, being aware of the distributional ambiguity, thus evaluates the worst‐case value‐at‐risk within a commonly agreed ambiguity set of the possible joint distributions. Through the lens of cooperative game theory, we show that this coalitional worst‐case value‐at‐risk is subadditive for the popular ambiguity sets in the distributionally robust optimization literature that are based on (i) convex moments or (ii) Wasserstein distance to some reference distributions. In addition, we propose easy‐to‐compute core allocation schemes to share the worst‐case value‐at‐risk. Our results can be readily extended to sharing the worst‐case conditional value‐at‐risk under distributional ambiguity.     

Classical Economics and the Problem of Exhaustible Resources

In this paper we discuss in terms of the simple model of exhaustible resources proposed by Bidard and Erreygers some of their propositions. The concept of ‘real rate of profit’ introduced by them is shown to be of no analytical use. It is stressed that the mathematical properties of the economic system under consideration are independent of the numeraire adopted. The classical treatment of exhaustible resources in terms of differential rent is shown to be correct under well‐defined conditions. It is argued that it is complementary to, rather than incompatible with, the approach which emphasizes that in conditions of free competition the rate of profit obtained by conserving the resource equals that in production processes.     

A Dynamic Growth Model with Equity for Guarantee Swap and Asymmetric Information*

We develop an endogenous dynamic growth model in which a financially constrained firm optimizes the entrance timing and financing structure in different information exposure scenes. An innovation financing tool called equity‐for‐guarantee swap is introduced to solve the dilemma of financing constraints. The productivity of the firm is a random variable following a two‐point distribution and its value can be observed in advance by the entrepreneur but not by the insurer. Our main goal is to fix the fair guarantee cost with asymmetry information and examine how the cost differs from the one under the same situation except with symmetric information. We solve a Nash equilibrium of the game between the entrepreneur and the insurer and specify the condition to determine whether a separating equilibrium or pooling one will be achieved. We find that at the separating equilibrium, the high‐profit firm will sacrifice a profit to send a signal for the purpose of separating itself from the low‐profit one by increasing the latter's mimicking cost. The pooling equilibrium occurs when the insurer can not distinguish the firm's type and therefore, the insurer demands the same guarantee cost for all firms.     

A Statistical Equilibrium Approach to the Distribution of Profit Rates

Motivated by classical political economy we detail a probabilistic, ‘statistical equilibrium’ approach to explaining why even in equilibrium, the equalization of profit rates leads to a non‐degenerate distribution. Based on this approach we investigate the empirical content of the profit rate distribution for previously unexamined annual firm level data comprising over 24,000 publicly listed North American firms for the period 1962–2014. We find strong evidence for a structural organization and equalization of profit rates on a relatively short time scale both at the economy wide and one‐ and two‐digit SIC industry levels into a Laplace or double exponential distribution. We show that the statistical equilibrium approach is consistent with economic theorizing about profit rates and discuss research questions emerging from this novel look at profit rate distributions. We also highlight the applicability of the underlying principle of maximum entropy for inference in a wide range of economic topics.     

Central Bank Intervention,Exchange Rate Regime and the Purchasing Power Parity

Motivated by the argument that central bank intervention leads to non‐linear exchange rate adjustment processes, we examine purchase power parity (PPP) by applying quantile unit root tests to the exchange rates of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) vis‐à‐vis seven Asian currencies. We show that exchange rate regime matters in determining whether PPP holds. While PPP holds overwhelmingly during the period when the NTD is under the fixed exchange rate regime, it is present only for some exchange rates during the managed floating rate regime. For exchange rates exhibiting mean reversion, the reversion occurs mainly when the shocks are large. In contrast to conclusion in the literature, our test results show little evidence of asymmetric mean reversion between positive and negative shocks.     

CHOICE OF TECHNIQUES AND THE THEOREM OF OKISHIO

This paper discusses the sufficiency of the »viability condition« of Okishio's theorem for signalling profit improving choice of techniques. Some counter-examples are given for linear technologies with joint production. Technological change which conform to the prediction of the theorem - choices made on the basis of the viability condition lead to higher average rate of profit - is called regular, and sufficient conditions for regularity are specified.     

Distribution Channel Decentralization and Strategic Durability Choice

In a simple two‐period setting we examine a decentralized distribution (marketing) channel consisting of an up‐stream durable‐goods manufacturer and down‐stream retailer. The manufacturer sets the wholesale price and the product’s durability while the retailer selects an output level. We show that in this setting, the profit‐maximizing manufacturer unambiguously selects a higher durability than the socially efficient (cost‐minimizing) level in both uncommitted sales and rental markets. We show this ‘reversed planned obsolescence’ result is due to the strategic benefit of durability in this double‐marginalization (double monopoly mark‐up) setting. This is in stark contrast to the usual integrated channel result where the profit‐maximizing manufacturer will select an efficient level of durability in rental markets and an inefficiently low durability in uncommitted sales markets (due to the selling firm’s commitment problem with potential buyers). Intuitively, with a decentralized distribution channel, the manufacturer faces potential commitment problems with both current buyers and its down‐stream retailer. We show, only in cases where both sources of commitment issues are removed (i.e. the manufacturer can credibly commit to both potential buyers and its retailer), will the profit‐maximizing durability choice be socially efficient.     

THE PROFIT–INVESTMENT–UNEMPLOYMENT NEXUS AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN A STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL

This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value‐added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock‐flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand‐side versus supply‐side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, increase of the leverage ceiling constraint) depends on capital shortage and credit rationing, which are not necessarily simultaneous due to the effects of investment on aggregate demand and supply.