Fighting the forces of gravity - Seapower and maritime trade between the 18th and 20th centuries

How have large naval powers affected international commerce in history? Using a panel gravity model, we investigate the interactions of wars, alliances, naval power and trade from the 18th to mid-20th centuries. Striking an alliance with a naval power helps a country’s interstate commerce. Fighting a naval power on the other hand limits a country’s interstate commerce. Further, we split this effect on trade between an extensive effect (effect on a country’s trade when fighting a naval power) and an intensive effect (effect of that power gaining more naval strength). We conclude that the intensive effect is a powerful one - large navies have historically been destroyers of trade when mobilized to combat.     

全球价值链、汇率变动与贸易竞争力

本文基于全球价值链视角,建立了一个典型的两部门非竞争型投入产出模型,重新考察汇率、出口和增加值之间的关系.本文发现汇率升值将提升每单位外国最终需求所拉动的本国增加值,但增加值出口的最终影响方向还取决于外国最终需求价格弹性的相对大小.本文还发现中间产品贸易规模上升是汇率与出口呈现出弱相关性的原因,并且本国和外国在生产中使...     

Trade integration in the twentieth century: What does Belgian history tell us?

Trade Integration in the Twentieth Century: What Does Belgian History Tell Us? — This paper studies globalization, protection and the impact of regional trading blocs in the twentieth century. The authors take the perspective of a small open core country in Europe. Using a gravity approach, it can be shown that trade integration in Europe followed a U-shaped pattern during the last hundred years. Moreover, the similarity between the gold standard and the current period is striking. Finally, evidence is found of a strong EC effect, in particular among EC6 countries.     

Is Poverty in the African DNA (Gene)?

A 2015 World Bank report on attainment of Millennium Development Goals concludes that the number of extremely poor has dropped substantially in all regions with the exception of Sub‐Saharan Africa. We assess if poverty is in the African gene by revisiting the findings of Ashraf and Galor and reformulating the “Out of Africa Hypothesis” into a “Genetic Diversity Hypothesis” for a “Within Africa Analysis.” We motivate this reformulation with five shortcomings largely drawn from the 2015 findings of the African Gerome Variation Project, notably: limitations in the conception of space, an African dummy in genetic diversity, linearity in migratory patterns, migratory origins and underpinnings of genetic diversity in Africa. Ashraf and Galor have concluded that cross‐country differences in development can be explained by genetic diversity in a Kuznets or inverted U‐shaped pattern. Our results from an exclusive African perspective partially confirm the underlying hypothesis in a contemporary context, but not in the historical analysis. From a historical context, the nexus is U‐shaped for migratory distance, mobility index and predicted diversity while for the contemporary analysis; it is hump shaped for ancestry‐adjusted predicted diversity. Hence from a within‐Africa comparative standpoint, poverty is not in the African gene.     

The Contribution of Exports to the Mexican Economy During the First Globalisation (1870–1929)

This article provides an assessment of the contribution of exports to the Mexican economy during the first globalisation. This implies revisiting conventional explanations based on the tradition of structuralism and dependency theory, using a new, complete set of data on Mexico's foreign trade, and evaluating the direct contribution as well as the indirect benefits provided by export activities, through mechanisms that linked foreign trade to the rest of the economy. The most important among these were positive externalities, spillovers, and backward and forward linkages.     

HECKSHER-OHLIN IN CANADA: NEW ESTIMATES OF REGIONAL WAGES AND LAND PRICES

Many immigrant-receiving and land-abundant countries experienced a diminishing ratio of wages to land prices during the globalisation era from 1870 to 1910. Factor price evidence suggests that Canada does not fit the pattern. We present the first Canadian estimates of region-specific wages and land prices that span the period from 1871 to 1925. Our evidence indicates that while Canada as a nation looks like an anomaly in the era of convergence, this is largely an artefact of aggregating the experience of the labour-abundant eastern provinces with the late-settling and land-abundant western provinces.     

全球价值链参与对出口产品质量的影响

基于微观企业数据,研究了全球价值链分工对出口产品质量的影响,得到以下结论:从整体上看,企业GVC上游参与程度提高有助于提升出口产品质量,而下游参与程度提高阻碍了出口产品质量的提升。从分组检验中看,企业GVC上游参与度提高对出口产品质量有稳健的正效应;而下游参与度提高的效应对于不同特征的组别存在差异,加工贸易企业GVC下游参与度提高有利于产品质量的提高,而一般贸易企业GVC下游参与度提高不利于产品质量的提高;外资企业GVC下游参与度提高的质量效应较明显,而对于国有企业该效应较弱;低技术类型企业GVC下游参与度的提高有助于产品质量提升,而对中、高技术类型企业来说则有显著的负效应。文章还发现GVC下游参与通过\"中间品效应\"、\"溢出效应\"渠道提升了出口产品质量。     

RECOVERY FROM DEPRESSION: AUSTRALIA IN AN ARGENTINE MIRROR 1895–1913

The recovery from the 1890s depression in Australia was prolonged, and economic growth from 1895 to 1913 was below that in the comparable settler economies of Argentina and Canada. Why? Australia’s hesitant initial recovery is typically attributed to the imbalances in the economy resulting from the preceding boom, and its further delay to severe drought. Drawing on Argentine experience, it is suggested that additional factors need to be considered. Unlike Argentina, the unwillingness or inability of Australian governments to reschedule foreign debt or devalue the exchange rate exacerbated the slump. And the era of low‐cost pioneer farming ended earlier than in Argentina (or Canada).     

Endowments vs. market potential: What explains the relocation of industry after the Polish reunification in 1918?

How did the location of industry across interwar Poland react to the Polish reunification? After more than 120 years of political and economic separation, Poland was reunified at the end of 1918. In consequence, the removal of internal tariff barriers and improved infrastructure strengthened the domestic market, while foreign market relations were cut off. Similarly, the geographical distribution of factor endowments was changed, for example, through internal migration. How did these forces interact to determine the location of industry? We survey the dynamics of industrial location between 1902 and 1925-1937 and estimate a specification that nests market potential and comparative advantage to quantify their respective impact during the interwar years. The results point to a role for both, comparative advantage and access to markets. We show that both statistically and economically the most important factors were the endowment with skilled labour and inter-industry-linkages.     

RELATIVE FACTOR PRICES IN THE PERIPHERY DURING THE FIRST GLOBAL CENTURY: ANY LESSONS FOR TODAY?

Globalisation before 1939 had profound effects on factor prices and income distribution, especially between the industrialising core economies and the economies of periphery. Jeffrey Williamson reflects briefly on: the impact of globalisation on relative factor price convergence; the interaction between commodity market convergence and convergence in labour and capital markets; and whether the nineteenth history of the periphery was a different history from that of the industrialising European core. Williamson concludes with observations on why the blacklash against globalisation is less severe today than it was during the first global century.     

COMMENTS ON FACTOR PRICES AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN LESS INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMIES, 1870–1939: REFOCUSING ON THE FRONTIER

A great deal of the current research into nineteenth- and twentieth-century globalisation has been focused through a neoclassical trade theory lens. Applying the Stopler-Samuelson paradigm from Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory, the result is an approach that sees price convergence as pivotal in defining, identifying, and measuring globalisation. This focus, however, obscures the implications of frontier incorporation and other insights achieved by viewing nineteenth-century globalisation as a mechanism whereby peripheral economies were incorporated into the core of organised economic activity. A frontier-centred perspective also reintroduces the role of economic institutions as a crucial element of economic growth and development.     

国际价值链分工模式下上海汽车产业升级路径研究

20世纪80年代以来,随着经济全球化的不断深入发展,国际分工也正经历着从产业间到产业内,再到产品内价值链分工不断深化的过程.这一新趋势不但拓宽了经济开放国家或地区的国际分工参与度,也使产业升级具有了有别于传统产业升级的新内涵和实现途径.本文通过对国际价值链分工模式下地方产业升级内涵的探讨,结合上海汽车产业在当代国际价值链分工中的地位分析,提出了促进上海汽车产业升级的路径选择和对策思路.     

承接外包与对外发包对工业行业价值链影响的差异分析

随着全球生产分工体系的进一步发展,中国参与国际化承接外包和对外发包生产方式的程度和规模呈不断膨胀趋势,这种趋势还伴随着价值链水平的提升而加强,本文着重探讨了承接外包和对外发包对中国工业行业价值链影响的差异性。研究结论表明：承接加工品、零配件和资本品工序外包对价值链的提升具有正向影响,并且这种正向影响较为稳定且逐渐增强;承接消费品工序外包对价值链的提升效应难以确定;材料发包比率的提高会降低行业的价值链水平,平均工序环节外包对价值链的正向影响会随着材料发包的提高而削弱;服务发包比率的提高会增加行业价值链的水平,平均工序环节外包对价值链的正向影响会随着服务发包的提高而增强。     

The economic and strategic motives for antidumping filings

The Economic and Strategic Motives for Antidumping Filings. — This paper looks at worldwide antidumping activity during the last two decades. We examine the motives for AD filings by countries in an attempt to identify whether economic or strategic concerns are driving the recent upsurge in AD use. We begin by providing a comprehensive overview of the data on cases initiated in the 1980–1998 period. We then use nonparametric methods to identify motivations for the use of antidumping and find considerable support for strategic motivations. This suggests that the rise in AD activity cannot be solely explained by an increase in unfair trading practices.     

Country-specific factors and the pattern of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade in the UK

Country-Specific Factors and the Pattern of Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade in the UK. - A large number of empirical studies have investigated the relationship between country-specific factors and total intra-industry trade (IIT). One important shortcoming of this literature is that it ignores the distinction between horizontal and vertical IIT and ignores the fact that they may have different determinants. This paper disaggregates UK IIT into its horizontal and vertical components and, using bilateral trade data, estimates a series of models incorporating countryspecific variables. The results suggest that vertical IIT is more important in the UK than horizontal IIT and that the inter-country pattern of vertical IIT is systematically related to a range of explanatory variables.     

Exploring the limits of comparative advantage

Exploring the Limits of Comparative Advantage. - The paper examines extensions of the Law of Comparative Advantage to several situations that have not been adequately covered before. The basic result is the positive one that a country’s pattern of trade will be negatively correlated with its relative autarky prices. The first extension is to situations of unbalanced trade. The second extension is to an economy with domestic distortions. Finally, the third extension is to a lumpy country model, in which regions of a country may differ in various ways, including differences in factor prices.