房产税改革对城市房价的影响 ——以上海市为例

从2003年以来,中国许多城市的房价一直在快速上涨。近几年,中央与地方采取了一系列房价调控政策,以控制我国房价直线上涨的情况。2011年1月,房产税试点改革政策首次在上海市和重庆市颁布,在试点城市采取调整税收的方式控制房价。基于2011—2017年上海市住宅商品房平均售价与地方财政房产税的数据,设定线性回归模型,使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)估计征收房产税对城市房价的影响,提出了应扩大房产税征收范围、设置科学的房产税税率、加快政府保障性住房建设、建立健全购房机制等政策建议。     

城市房价、住房产权与主观幸福感

本文利用大型微观数据库CGSS2006,首次对城市住房价格、住房产权和城市居民主观幸福感之间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)城市房价上涨程度对居民幸福感具有显著的负面影响,房价上涨越快,民众主观幸福感越低;(2)住房产权状况和幸福感显著相关,仅有一套房产者和多房者幸福感显著高于租房者,多房者幸福感显著高于仅有一套房产者;(3)房价上涨对租房者幸福感具有显著负效应,对多房者和仅有一套房产者的幸福感带来显著正向效应,且对多房者幸福感的正向效应显著高于仅有一套房产者;(4)住房质量显著影响居民主观幸福感。这些发现具有重要的现实政策意义。     

衡量房价合理回归标准的思考

房价合理回归就是要通过对房价的调控使其回到合理水平,它体现了中央政府对房价调控的决心和信心,反映了城镇居民的心声和期待。判断房价是否合理回归,一看房价是否与城镇居民收入相适应;二看房价是否与成本和合理利润相匹配。要促进房价合理回归,必须坚持房价调控政策不动摇,巩固房价调控成果;努力降低商品住房成本,制止开发商暴利行为;理顺收入分配关系,增加城镇居民收入;加大保障性住房建设力度,构建住房保障体系;抑制住房投机需求,维护市场秩序,以实现房价调控目标。     

完善城镇居民住房保障制度的财税途径

住房保障制度是目前世界各国普遍采用的一项公共政策。这一制度实施的目的在于保障社会成员的基本人权(生存权、居住权等)、维护社会稳定、促进社会公平。然而在住房市场化、商品化的今天,由于房地产市场价格不断上涨,城镇居民实际支付能力与适宜的住房标准价格之间存在着巨大的差距。为稳定社会秩序,缩小贫富差距,体现社会公平,政府可以通过一系列的财税政策安排以解决城镇居民的基本住房问题。     

浅论中国房地产业的制度设计走向

自中国20世纪放弃了计划分房制度后,在商品房的道路上行进,房价一路狂飙。政府不断运用各项政策手段给房价降温。1998年的国务院第23号文件就曾明确提出,中国要建立以经济适用房为主的住房供应体系。论述了中国房地产市场的政策之路,并就中国房地产市场制度的走向提出了建议。     

我国房价会“拐”吗?

自2005年3月开始,政府为了打击炒房,平抑房屋价格出台了一系列"政策组合拳",其中心目的是将房价控制在百姓可承受的范围之内。但事与愿违,全国各地房价在一片"降"声中直线上升。岁末年初,各地房价在严厉的宏观经济政策调控下"降"声一片,"拐"声四起,从影响房价持续上升的因素分析、论证看我国房价仍有走高之势。     

Rising prices and coping strategies of urban families in India

This study examines how Indian urban households coped with rising prices over the period 1995–1996 to 1999–2000. It provides evidence of cost of living indices and the coping strategies of urban households belonging to different income groups. Although there has been a lively debate on inflation and related issues, most of the studies were macro studies, which have not paid explicit attention to the impact of rising prices on the coping and financial management responses of the affected families. This paper is a part of a larger cross‐sectional study on the impact of rising prices on quality of life and financial management practices of Indian urban households belonging to five different income groups. This paper provides the evidence on cost of living indices and the coping strategies adopted by these households to combat an otherwise hostile economic environment. It found that the impact of cost of living indices differs across different income groups depending upon the composition of the consumption basket and the proportion of expenditure incurred on specific items of that basket. It is also observed that rational responses of households played an important role in coping with increased cost of living. The evidence suggests that a wide range of coping strategies is adopted by households such as consumption reallocation and seeking increased earning opportunities as part of their backward and forward coping strategies.     

经济适用房、土地价格与住宅价格——基于我国29个省级面板数据的实证研究

本文采用省级面板数据,研究经济适用房、土地价格与住宅价格之间的关系。研究发现:(1)土地出让价格、经济适用房价格和住宅价格之间存在长期均衡关系,土地出让价格和经济适用房对住宅价格的影响力度存在区域性差异;(2)短期内,经济适用房的替代效应大于收入效应,其供给有利于平抑商品房价格的上涨趋势;长期内,经济适用房的收入效应大于替代效应,其供给会起到推高房价的作用;(3)土地价格对住宅价格的长、短期影响效应均为正,但影响力度存在区域差异。     

高房价的成因与房产税改革构想

近年来我国房价大幅度上涨,居高不下的房价不仅给百姓生活带来的巨大压力,也给国民经济健康发展造成了极大的困扰,因此政府部门应对房价进行有效干预。房产税具有取得财政收入、调节房产收益、影响经济运行的功能,但现行房产税制却违背了税收量能负担原则、削弱了税收调节分配功能,应借鉴房产税改革试点城市的经验,加快房产税制改革的步伐,以促进房产市场价格回归理性,更好地保障房地产市场持续、健康有序发展。     

Financial Development,Financial Structure and Income Inequality in China

Using panel data of 23 provinces during the period 1996–2012, this paper investigates the impacts of financial development and structure on income inequality in different administrative districts (urban, rural and overall) in China. The results produced by the dynamic generalised method of moments estimator provide some evidence for a linear and inverse ‘U‐shape’ relationship between financial development and income inequality, and increasing the relative importance of financial markets to banks helps to reduce income inequality. Furthermore, the results of panel threshold regressions show that the benefits of financial development only occur if the stock market activity has reached a threshold level and disappear if the stock market capitalisation has reached a certain scale. Meanwhile, the impact of the financial structure weakens as the financial development expands and the proportion of financial markets increases. We also find that the impacts of financial development and structure on rural income inequality are stronger than those on urban income inequality.     

中国储蓄率远高于其他国家之原因探析——基于权力（资源）结构和地方政府竞争的视角

1990年代以来,中国的储蓄率呈不断上升之势,其中,居民储率平稳增长,政府和企业储蓄上升明显。储蓄率的上升给中国经济造成了诸多负面影响。现有理论认为,社会保障制度不健全、金融发展水平滞后、性别比例失衡、政府和企业收入增加、房价快速上涨等因素导致了中国储蓄率的畸高和上升。而本文认为,其根源在于中国的权力（资源）结构失衡和地方政府之间为GDP而展开的竞争,因为以GDP最大化为目标的地方政府竞争会导致资源配置和收入分配中＂重资本、轻劳动＂、＂重城市、轻农村＂、＂重投资、轻民生＂、＂重国企、轻民资＂等问题,并且权力结构失衡会导致这些问题进一步恶化。     

Housing wealth effect in emerging economies

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth on private consumption for a panel of 17 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Households' consumption, income and the two measures of real and financial wealth – proxied by house and stock market prices – are found to be difference-stationary and co-integrated; by means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationships between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis shows that both real and financial wealth positively affect households' consumption in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being larger than that of stock market wealth. Moreover, there is also a significant short-run adjustment from income, stock prices and house prices on consumption, i.e. consumption adjusts to its long-run relationship with lags. When the model is run for the two groups of countries separately, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally higher in Central and Eastern European economies with respect to Asian ones, which make them more vulnerable to further adverse housing market developments.     

2011年房地产政策调控成效评价及2012年市场预测

中国房地产调控目标已由"遏制房价过快上涨"升级为"促进房价合理回归",在归纳2011年住房市场主要运行特征的基础上,引入协调度匹配指数模型对2001年～2011年中国住房价格是否达到"合理回归"进行了评价,并从影响住房市场的需求、供给及调控政策三个方面,对2012年中国住房市场运行趋势进行了预测。     

经济适用房的历史地位与改革方向

经济适用房曾被赋予了我国住房供应体系的主体的地位.五年多来,经济适应房建设取得了巨大的成效,也暴露出了严重的缺陷.本文从改革与发展两个角度研究了经济适用房的发展历程与成就,探讨了其内在缺陷,论证了在我国中低价位的商品房市场正在形成,并且在两年左右的时间内,低价商品房市场将与经济适用房市场现实地形成竞争.在此基础上,本文认为经济适用房作为我国住房体制改革的阶段性措施已初步完成了它的历史使命.随着客观条件的变化,经济适用房建设应逐步让位于普通的商品房市场.     

城乡不同收入群体通胀差距对收入、消费的影响——基于中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的实证分析

文章基于中国季度宏观经济模型,对我国城乡不同收入群体所面临的收入差距、通胀差距及其对总需求的影响进行了实证分析.通过构建消费行为方程,分析了总量CPI上涨对不同收入群体CPI、收入及消费支出的影响.研究结果表明,CPI的上涨对农村居民的冲击大干城镇居民,对低收入群体的冲击大于高收入群体.城乡及城乡不同收入群体面临的通胀差异会扩大不同收入群体的实际收入差距,削弱我国居民对通胀的耐受力.同时,抑制全社会居民消费需求扩张,会使最终消费对经济增长的贡献率持续下滑.因此,抑制通胀并有效降低通胀的社会成本,不仅要控制通胀的总量水平,而且要缩小通胀在不同收入群体之间的差距.即旨在控制总量通货膨胀的政策要兼顾缩小城乡居民的通胀差距.在制定宏观调控政策时,要在控制通胀与追求增长之间作出权衡,要坚决将增长速度控制在9％.为有效抑制通胀差距所产生的社会成本,必须充分重视通货膨胀对不同收入阶层尤其是农村低收入阶层收入的影响,采取有力措施保障低收入阶层的收入增长;要进一步提高最低工资标准和制造业劳工工资水平,保障城乡低收入阶层收入和消费水平,增强中低收入阶层抵御通胀侵蚀收入的能力.     

地价推动下的房价上涨逻辑与影响

中国目前房价过高、上涨过快的问题,从作为二线城市的哈尔滨近年来房价异常的走势也能够得到印证。形成高房价及房价泡沫的根本原因在于地方政府基于"土地财政"利益的幕后推手,并由此形成了地价推动下的房价内生上涨机制。高房价的负面影响很严重,尤其在民生和潜在政治危害等方面。彻底治理高房价及其泡沫的出路是改革现行土地出让金分配方式,由中央财政统筹安排。     

中国城镇居民家庭住房支付能力问题研究——基于房价收入比指标

从房价收入比变动趋势及其所处区间范围的视角对全国1998年～2010年的城镇居民家庭住房支付能力问题进行了研究,结论表明,中国城镇居民家庭住房支付能力逐步上升且趋于合理,这一结论与社会现实中的普通购房者"望楼兴叹"现象似乎构成了一对难以解释的矛盾,原因在于城镇居民家庭间收入差距巨大,导致60%的城镇居民家庭住房支付能力不足、部分热点城市特别是一线城市房价收入比过高及保障性住房的历史供应不足。     

试论我国房价发展趋势

自1987年住房改革以来,房地产市场经过近20年的风雨历程,已具规模。但日趋上涨的房价让广大的购房者望房兴叹,何时才能居者有其屋“大庇天下寒士俱欢颜”成为21世纪、特别是“十.一五”规划实施中百姓关注之焦点、议论之话题。从影响房价居高不下的主因素来分析,我国房价仍有走高之趋势。     

Dual Cities? Sectoral Shifts and Metropolitan Income Inequality, 1980–90

The sectoral shift from manufacturing to services is one of several potential explanations for increasing income inequality in the United States. This article reframes national-level explanations of rising inequality at the level of urban labour markets and assesses their relative contributions to levels and trends in metropolitan income inequality. We find that sectoral shifts, especially the rates of deindustrialisation and employment growth in personal services, significantly affect changes in Gini indices for the largest constant-boundary MSAs between 1980 and 1990. In addition, rising metropolitan inequality is associated with the trend towards self-employment and such supply-side factors as local education levels, changing family structure and immigration. The study provides mixed support for the mismatch and global cities hypotheses.     

Portfolio choices,Asset returns and wealth inequality: evidence from China

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between household porfolio choices and wealth distribution with micro-survey data in China. We show that due to decreasing relative risk aversion, the rich people tend to hold more complicated portfolios and own high-yield assets of stocks, housing and private businesses. As a result, the return for household portfolio increases with wealth, with the well-heeled gains more over the poor in the capital market. This therefore serves as a reason for wealth concentration and decrease of social mobility. Taxation on capital income slows down the growing process of inequality.