Taxation and capital structure: Empirical evidence from a quasi-experiment in China

China's new Corporate Income Tax Law was passed in March 2007 and took effect on January 1, 2008. It terminated the dual corporate income tax regime by removing the preferential tax treatments offered to foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) and unifying the corporate income tax regime for FIEs and Chinese domestic enterprises (DEs). This paper uses a difference-in-differences approach to determine whether FIEs responded to the law by raising debt ratios. Employing the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database from 2002 to 2008 to implement the analysis, we find that FIEs have responded to the law by raising debt ratios; the treatment effect is larger for Hong Kong–Macau–Taiwan (HMT) investment enterprises than for other FIEs, which implies that HMT investment enterprises are more sensitive and more responsive to the removal of the preferential tax treatments than other FIEs; and the treatment effect by restricting the control group to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) is less than that by restricting the control group to Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs), which is consistent with the perception that SOEs might enjoy more favorable treatments from the Chinese government than POEs. All three findings are consistent with the tax-based theories of capital structure, and hence we conclude that taxation plays an important role in the choice of capital structure. We argue that our conclusion is not China-specific, but a general lesson for modern finance theory and is portable to developed countries.     

The impact of exchange rate deviations from relative PPP equilibrium on the U.S. demand for foreign equities

Applying fixed-effects panel data, this study investigates the impact of U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during different exchange rate states (overvaluation and undervaluation) on the monthly real gross and real net purchases of foreign equities by U.S. residents over the post-Plaza Accord period. The foreign equities come from 22 developed and 25 developing countries. Previous research has posited two alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between exchange rates and foreign investment. These are the wealth effect and the profit-oriented effect. The evidence herein suggests that these two hypotheses coexist. We find robust evidence for a negative relationship between the exchange rate movements of an undervalued U.S. dollar and the demand for foreign equities. For developed countries, the wealth effect dominates the profit-oriented effect when the U.S. dollar is overvalued, while, for developing countries, the profit-oriented effect dominates the wealth effect. The results emphasize the importance of considering exchange rate states derived from a relative PPP equilibrium when analyzing U.S. allocations to foreign equities. The findings with respect to the macroeconomic control variables are mainly in agreement with the predictions of international financial theory. Some of the results, however, disappear or become inconclusive for the period after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. This may be explained by the increased uncertainty in international financial markets following this unprecedented event. The findings are robust with respect to different constructed equilibrium exchange rates.     

我国涉外企业外汇交易风险研究

随着世界经济逐步向全球一体化的方向发展以及我国对WTO相关条款的逐步履行,我国与其他国家的经济往来也变得更加频繁。更为重要的是,我国外汇管理体制改革的进一步深化和外汇市场的发展和完善,使得人民币汇率开始走向市场,汇率变动的频率和范围将大大增强。因此,在这一背景下,本文以科学性和前瞻性为指导原则,通过阐述我国涉外企业面临的外汇交易风险现状和问题,揭示这类企业加强外汇交易风险管理的必要性,在此基础上,来探讨外汇交易风险对我国涉外企业净利润的影响,最终结合我国外汇管理体制改革的实践,提出有效防范和规避外汇交易风险的建议和对策。     

Does financial globalization still spur growth in emerging and developing countries? Considering exchange rates

This paper analyzes the effects of financial globalization on growth in developing countries, focusing on its interaction with exchange rate volatility. Based on dynamic panel data models and the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, it replicates the method of Gaies et al. (2019a; 2019b) and extends it by exploring a new spillover effect of financial globalization in terms of exchange rate volatility measured by six different indicators. The findings show the positive influence of investment–globalization (foreign direct investment and portfolio investment) on growth through the traditional channel of capital accumulation and by reducing the negative impact of exchange rate volatility. These impacts are not insured by indebtedness–globalization (foreign debt), thereby shedding light on the government’s decision in developing countries on foreign capital control policy. These results are robust to changes in the estimator and variables used.     

汇率风险对冲如何影响企业并购行为——基于自由现金流的视角

本文基于2001—2019年上市公司年报中关于外汇衍生品的使用信息,研究发现,使用外汇衍生品的上市公司相比未使用的公司发起并购的概率更低,但并购的市场和经营绩效有所提高。主要原因在于,中国上市公司进行并购通常以企业自有资金进行现金支付,外汇衍生品的使用大幅降低了公司出于预防性动机而持有的现金,从而降低了公司发起并购的概率。此外,进行汇率风险对冲可避免公司因持有大量自由现金流而发生的过度投资行为,从而提高了公司的投资效率。总体而言,使用外汇衍生品进行汇率风险对冲可使上市公司更注重并购质量而非并购数量,从而实现“少而精”的投资策略。本文研究对进一步厘清企业使用外汇衍生品的相关影响提供了一定参考。     

我国外汇储备的溢出效应研究——基于引力模型的分析

本文采用2000-2015年199个国家和地区的外汇储备面板数据,基于引力模型理论,考察了我国高额外汇储备的溢出效应及对全球资产配置的影响。研究发现:我国外汇储备具有随地理距离递减的空间外溢效应,双边汇率制度关联会增加外汇储备持有比例的相似程度,而且这种溢出效应更多地表现在与中国金融发展水平类似、资本账户开放程度相近的国家之间。上述结论凸显了国家间加强外汇储备合作调整的战略意义。探究我国外汇储备的溢出效应,有利于发展中经济体更好地理解外汇储备的变动逻辑,对于完善外汇储备管理体制,参与国际宏观经济政策协调机制均具有一定的积极意义。     

The effectiveness of tax incentives in attracting investment: panel data evidence from the CFA Franc zone

In this paper we investigate to what extent tax incentives are effective in attracting investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. We test the neo-classical investment theory prediction that tax incentives, by lowering the user cost of capital, raise investment. Next to tax incentives, we also estimate the impact on investment of other investment climate variables that are under direct control of the government, such as the transparency and complexity of the tax system, and the legal protection of foreign investors. In developing countries these variables might be as important as or even more important than the tax variables themselves.     

资本高度流动时代的发展中国家最优国际储备──兼评中国外汇储备政策

20世纪90年代以来,发展中国家国际储备管理实践使主流最优国际储备研究思路面临根本性冲击。本文提出,在资本高度流动时代,发展中国家国际储备管理的核心目标是:通过保持“适度”国际储备来稳定国际投机资本,并以此促进汇率稳定。从这一分析思路出发,笔者对中国外汇储备管理有如下看法:有迹象表明,中国目前外汇储备水平已对汇率稳定构成了干扰;从动态发展的视角看,中国实体经济需求不足矛盾和脆弱银行体系面临的严峻竞争,都将扩充中国对外汇储备继续增长的包容性。     

Corporate environments and international transfer pricing: an empirical study of China in a developing economy framework

This paper investigates the international transfer pricing methods adopted by multinational corporations (MNCs) in China and how their choices are affected by their specific corporate attributes in the context of the business environment in China. Empirical test results based on structured interviews indicate that MNCs having a local (Chinese) partner in management tend to adopt market-based transfer pricing methods. The influence of local partners on the choice of transfer pricing methods is modified by the impact of the source of foreign investment, as the analysis reveals that US-sourced MNCs are more likely to use cost-based pricing methods for international transfers. The influences of these two variables on the choice of transfer pricing methods are significant both directly and interactively. There is also some evidence that export-oriented enterprises are more likely to adopt cost-based transfer pricing than those aiming at China's domestic market. By providing empirical evidence on the impact of key corporate attributes on transfer pricing which have not been studied by prior research in the context of a developing economy, this research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of transfer pricing in developing countries.     

Taxation and foreign direct investment (FDI): empirical evidence from a quasi-experiment in China

China’s new Corporate Income Tax Law was passed in March 2007 and took effect on January 1 2008. It terminates the dual corporate income tax regime by removing the preferential tax treatments offered to foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) and unifies the corporate income tax regime for FIEs and Chinese domestic enterprises (DEs). This paper uses a difference-in-differences approach to determine whether FIEs are responding to the law by reducing their investment in China. Employing the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database (2002～2008) to implement the analysis, we find that: (1) FIEs are responding to the law by reducing their investment in China; and (2) the magnitude of the response is larger for HongKong-Macau-Taiwan (HMT) investment enterprises than that for other FIEs, which supports the claim that some Chinese investors engaged in “roundtripping” FDI. Our confidence in the conclusions are further boosted by the results of a series of placebo tests and two robustness checks: (1) the results of the placebo tests support the claim that the estimated effect is due to the tax reform rather than to other confounding factors; (2) the results of the first robustness check are consistent with the perception that State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) might enjoy more favorable treatments from the Chinese government than Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs); and (3) the results of the second robustness check show that incorporating enterprise-specific time trends into the baseline specification of our econometric models does not change the conclusions.     

基于Copula-GJR-EVT模型的外汇储备投资组合实证研究

随着我国外汇储备规模的增长,如何实现外汇储备有效管理、降低资产管理风险越来越受到业界关注。本文通过建立Copula-GJR-EVT模型,对外汇储备投资组合进行了实证研究,求得投资组合收益及各资产最优权重。结果表明,外汇储备投资组合可以降低风险,投资能源和有色金属等战略储备,可以成为拓展我国外汇储备投资渠道、促进外汇储备保值增值的合理选择。     

Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach

Theory suggests that regimes of relatively fixed exchange rates encourage inward foreign direct investment (FDI) relative to regimes of more flexible exchange rates. We use propensity score matching (PSM) to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate regimes of 70 developing countries and FDI into such countries using de facto regime classifications. We include a large number of variables in the logit equation that estimates the propensity score, the probability of regime choice. We also use general-to-specific modeling to get alternative, parsimonious versions. Based on four matching procedures, the average treatment effects suggest, with overall modest statistical significance, that relatively fixed de facto regimes do encourage FDI compared with relatively floating regimes. In addition, the estimated effects are sometimes economically large.     

人民币汇率波动如何影响中国企业的对外直接投资?

基于2005-2017 "中国全球投资跟踪数据库"的对外投资微观数据,本文考察人民币汇率波动的不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资的影响。研究发现:人民币汇率波动的增加,不仅减少了中国企业对外直接投资的可能性,也抑制了投资规模,这一结果在考虑内生性问题、样本选择性偏差、不同的汇率波动指标等一系列问题后仍然稳健。基于手工搜集的企业年报数据,研究发现,企业前期的套期保值行为,可以有效规避汇率风险,弱化汇率波动对企业对外投资的抑制作用。进一步研究显示,汇率波动对中国企业对外投资的影响有明显的异质性,投资于不同行业、不同国家的企业以及不同投资方式的企业对人民币汇率波动的反应各异,这又与中国现阶段对外投资的一些独特特征有关。本文研究为汇率波动影响中国企业的对外直接投资行为提供了微观层面的证据。     

风险与外商直接投资简

外商直接投资已经被视作企业在全球扩张中的一种典型方式。通过吸收国外资金,技术或者管理经验,外商直接投资已经成为所在国家经济发展的潜在催化剂。与此同时,外国公司和他们的公司所属国也将会从外商直接投资中获得更大的利益,更低的成本等等。所以,这就不难看出外商直接投资已经日益成为一种对两国经济发展双赢的投资方式。然而,在对外投资的过程中,外国企业以及公司所属国家不得不面对一些问题,那就是如何将风险最小化。事实上,在这个过程中,风险是多种多样的,例如,政治风险,经济风险,汇率风险以及法律风险,所有的这些都将会影响外商直接投资的方向因为它将会导致企业的盈利能力下降。通过基于于1984年至2007年间,美国企业对全球43个发展中国家投资的固定样本数据作为参考,本文的实证结果能够统计地证实风险与外商直接投资流存在反向关系。     

经济危机视角下基于混沌控制的投资风险管理研究

美国的次贷危机引发的全球经济危机,让我们重新审视投资风险管理在金融领域扮演的重要角色,特别对于中国等发展中国家来说,风险管理显得尤为重要,另一方面宏观经济系统普遍存在混沌现象,这种非线性的动力学给予了投资风险管理很大的发展空间,本文在对投资风险管理进行混沌特性分析的基础上,基于房地产市场的投资风险管理进行了混沌控制的实证分析,并对控制变量进行了动态区间分析,最后提出政策建议。     

U.S. International Equity Investment

Using a comprehensive data set of all U.S. investment in foreign equities, we find that the single most important determinant of the amount of U.S. investment a foreign firm receives is whether the firm cross‐lists on a U.S. exchange. Correcting for selection biases, cross‐listing leads to a doubling (or more) in U.S. investment, an impact greater than all other factors combined. Much of this increased U.S. investment is purchased in the foreign market, implying that the cross‐listing effect reflects something more fundamental about a firm than easier acquisition of its securities. We also demonstrate that cross‐listing is an important determinant of U.S. international investment at the country level and describe easy‐to‐implement methods for including a cross‐listing variable as an endogenous control.     

International Transfer Pricing for Business Operations in China: Inducements, Regulation and Practice

This paper provides an empirical analysis of international transfer pricing in the People's Republic of China. The examination of the business environment in China reveals a mixed inducement for transfer pricing decisions by foreign investment enterprises (FIEs). The legislation on transfer pricing in China is similar to that of its major trading partners. Competition among local governments for foreign investment, inadequate resources for tax enforcement, and inadequate documentation by taxpayers hinder tax audits on transfer pricing. An analysis of aggregate import and export data does not support the allegation that, in general, FIEs shift profits out of China by over-pricing their imports and under-pricing their exports. However, there was some evidence of outward income-shifting in certain key sectors.     

The Role of Acquisitions in Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market

This paper examines foreign direct investment by studying shareholder wealth gains for 1273 U.S. firms acquired during the period 1970-1987. Three findings stand out. First, cross-border takeovers are more frequent in research and development intensive industries than are domestic acquisitions; furthermore, in three-fourths of cross-border transactions the buyer and seller are in related industries. These industry patterns suggest that costs and imperfections in product markets play an important role in foreign direct investment. Second, targets of foreign buyers have significantly higher wealth gains than do targets of U.S. firms. This cross-border effect is comparable in size to the wealth effects of all-cash and multiple bids, two effects receiving substantial attention in the finance literature, and is robust to inclusion of these two variables. Third, while the cross-border effect on wealth gains is not well explained by industry and tax variables, it is positively related to the weakness of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant role for exchange rate movements in foreign direct investment.     

The puzzling peso

In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso’s behavior: During periods when the U.S. dollar has risen (fallen) against other major currencies such as the euro, the peso has risen (fallen) against the dollar. Very few other currencies display this behavior. In this paper, we attempt to explain the unusual pattern of the peso’s correlation with the dollar by developing some general empirical models of exchange rate correlations. Based on a study of 29 currencies, we find that most of the cross-country variation in exchange rate correlations with the dollar and the euro can be explained by just a few variables. First, a country’s currency is more likely to rise against the dollar as the dollar rises against the euro, the closer it is to the United States and the farther it is from the euro area. In this result, distance likely proxies for the role of economic integration in affecting exchange rate correlations. Second, a country’s currency is more likely to exhibit this unusual pattern when its sovereign credit rating is more risky. This may reflect that currencies of riskier countries are less substitutable in investor portfolios than those of better-rated countries. All told, these factors well explain the peso’s unusual behavior, as Mexico both is very close to the United States and has a lower credit rating than most industrial economies.     

国际投资的价值分配格局分析

作为中央党校“深化劳动价值理论”课题的子课题 ,本文通过对不同时期国际投资特点的剖析 ,分析了国际投资领域的价值分配格局的变化 ,认为发达国家虽然在分配格局中仍居主导地位 ,但随着发展中国家经济发展水平的提高 ,不公正的分配格局开始改变 ,发展中国家通过吸引外资和对外投资 ,提高了其在国际经济中的比较利益。