住宅结构性供给不足助推高房价

当前，低价住宅短缺、住宅结构性供给不足的矛盾在我国一些地区表现突出。这不仅成为推动房价高位运行的重要原因，更容易引发一些违法占地、违规炒作房价和腐败等问题。规范并推动房地产市场健康发展，必须在加大遏制炒房等调控措施力度的同时加大住宅有效供给。     

有效供给是关键

旨在增加有效供给来抑制房价上涨的《通知》,无疑是挥向楼市的又一记猛拳"新国十条"确立了从引导需求和加强供给两个方面调控房地产市场的思路。在其实施之初,由于收紧信贷有效遏制了需求,调控立见成效。然而,市场等待的第二把"利斧"——加强供给却迟迟没有出现。相反,地方政府推地更为谨慎(上半年主要城市实际成交的土地占全年供地计划的比重低于40%),部分开发商仍在囤     

房市将再度“过热”吗?

眼下,复苏的楼市似乎有点变味。如果说年初的反弹还是刚性需求集中爆发的结果,那么随着天量信贷的开闸、各路资金纷纷趁机入场,楼市在投资性资本涌入和通胀预期的共同作用下已有再度"过热"之势。     

博弈持续，房价走势难料

房价快速上涨，让政府、开发商、消费者三方之间的博弈从桌下的互相“较劲”。正式走上了台面，在广州房地产市场上屡屡上演“口水战”。且有愈演愈烈之势。     

市场供给总体下降，房价上涨引发关注

2005年1～10月，深圳房地产发展较为稳定，总体来看，开发规模和供给量得到控制，市场需求持续旺盛，各类型物业均价均有一定程度增长。5、6月份，住宅市场受政策影响成交量下滑，非住宅物业稳步发展。由于各种复杂因素影响，7～10月份，在旺盛的市场需求下，深圳市商品住宅价格增长较快，房价再度成为市场关注的热点。     

今年房市调控的重点

中国地产市场的发展趋向眼下似乎成为2010年最受关注的事:仅岁末年初的1个月内,中央政府就5次出手调控房市,这还不包括近期陆续出台的一系列有关土地、金融和信贷的具体措施。举措之集中、用力之猛烈,在这几年房市调控中堪为之最。如果说,曾被称为"房市巅峰状态"的2007年,政府的调控重在打压房价;受国际金融危机严重影响的2008年,     

政策

2011年12月12～14日召开的中央经济工作会议强调,要坚持房地产调控政策不动摇,促进房价合理回归,加快普通商品住房建设,扩大有效供给,促进房地产市场健康发展。     

浅析我国房地产市场特征以及如何通过货币政策对我国的房地产市场价格进行调节和影响

<正>自2004年开始,我国一、二线城市的房价逐渐呈现出快速上涨的趋势,2009年后我国的房地产市场全面进入鼎盛时期,据统计资料显示,2009年的全年房地产销售面积达9个多亿平方米,销售额总计40000多亿。面对我国房地产过热的情形,虽然中央及各地政府多次进行调控,但房价上涨的现状却没有得到全面的缓解。     

房地产市场有效供给与城市化水平的相关性分析——以苏州市为例

从供给侧改革角度来看,房地产市场的有效供给应当适应城镇化进程所带来的住房需求,从而提高住宅行业生产效率。本文首先通过定性分析方法,探究房地产市场有效供给和我国城市化的关系,并得出各自代表指标的主要作用路径。再以苏州市为例,用商品住宅开发投资额、新开工面积、竣工面积和房价均价指标代表市场的有效供给,与反映城市化水平的主要指标城镇化率进行实证分析,得出相关结论。     

楼市调整还将延续

全球经济的疲软正在房地产市场集中显现。受次贷危机和欧美等国房地产市场下滑的影响,加上国内宏观经济的不明朗,中国房地产市场的调整不确定性将有所加强     

Selective housing policy in local housing markets and the supply of housing

Selective programs and subsidies have an impact on both the financial position and the housing conditions of the household to whom they are allocated. They also affect the equilibrium outcome in housing markets. This study analyzes how the housing stock in Norwegian municipalities is affected by selective targeted interventions on the supply and demand-sides of the market. The empirical analysis shows that additions to the stock of public housing increases the total housing stock. For every 100 new public units built, 60 units are added to the total housing stock. Demand-side subsidies are also shown to increase the size of the housing stock. Using a linear spline it is shown that the magnitude of the marginal effect on the total size of the housing stock is strongly decreasing in program size.     

Does the low-income housing tax credit increase the supply of housing?

The low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) was originated in conjunction with the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA 86) to provide incentives for private sector production of low-income housing. In this note we examine whether these units have added to the existing stock or merely substituted for unsubsidized units that otherwise would have been built. We explicitly control for effects of the number of other supply-side (e.g., public housing, Section 8 New Construction, Section 236 housing) and demand-side (vouchers and Section 8 Certificates) subsidies. From estimations of a simple cross-state model of the determinants of the stock of housing per 1000 population, we find no significant relationship between the number of LIHTC units (and other subsidized units) built in a given state and the size of the current housing stock, suggesting a high rate of substitution. However, our test is not sufficiently powerful to reject some alternative null hypotheses that suggest a lower rate of substitution, and we make some suggestions for future research.     

The price elasticity of the supply of single-family detached urban housing

Past attempts to estimate the price elasticity of the supply of housing have erred by using aggregate data. Many houses are built in areas where the volume of residential construction is low. Consequently, the influence of observations from higher-volume areas where costs may be higher is diminished. This problem is eliminated by using cross-sectional data from 61 different American urban areas, for a total of 223 observations from 1976 to 1981, to estimate a translog cost function for housing. The supply elasticity is found to be infinite.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

商业银行经营决策对我国货币供给的影响及建议

商业银行经营行为对我国货币供给的影响作用于基础货币投放和存款货币创造两个阶段。国有控股商业银行因其垄断性地位使得信贷投放过于集中、流动性管理水平低,其他股份制商业银行不受风险约束的盲目扩张倾向,都可能造成我国货币供给和调控政策实施效果偏离预期。针对以上问题,本文建议,国有控股商业银行应加强股份制改革,建立现代企业制度;其他股份制商业银行根据自身的条件确定发展方向,有序竞争。     

住宅供应或将形成二元化格局

房地产业是我国国民经济重要的支柱产业之一,同时又承担着非常重要的社会保障功能.这种二元属性的存在,使得房地产开发尤其是住宅开发行业的发展深受行业政策影响.……     

Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis

This paper analyzes the role of stochastic uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production and provide estimates of the time-series properties of risk shocks by using firm level productivity data. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for understanding housing price movements. Specifically, the model can match the volatility of housing prices observed in the data. It is also demonstrated that adjustment costs are important in replicating the contemporaneous correlation of housing prices with GDP and residential investment. Critically, bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices and are an important determinant of house price volatility. However, in comparison to housing demand shocks, risk shocks have low explanatory power for real quantities.     

Optimal money supply in models with endogenous discount factor

This paper studies the Friedman rule for the optimal quantity of money in money in the utility (MIU) and cash–credit models while considering two specifications for the endogenous discount factor. In the first specification, the discount factor depends directly on the utility level. In the second, the discount factor depends on every component of the utility function. We show that under the former specification the Friedman rule is the optimal policy. Under the latter, however, while the Friedman rule is optimal for the MIU model, it is not optimal for the cash–credit model.     

货币供应量对价格体系的传导效应分析

货币作为中间目标变量存在于经济生活中的任何一部分。国民经济的健康运转离不开货币,而货币政策作为重要工具在宏观经济调控中起着举足轻重的作用。本文选用2004年1月-2014年3月货币供应量与价格指数的季度时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换模型,实证研究了货币供应量与价格体系之间的动态关系,得出我国货币供应量对价格体系具有较强的传导效应。在基于以上研究结果的基础上对我国货币政策提出了相关的政策建议。