Impact of the US–EC price war on major wheat exporters' shares of the Chinese market

China is both the world's largest producer and consumer of wheat. In an attempt to gain a larger slice of the important Chinese market, both the European Community and the United States have offered China subsidised wheat. In addition, other exporters have offered attractive credit arrangements to China. The objective of this paper is to measure the overall impact of these policies on each exporter's share of the Chinese market. To that end, an improved version of the constant market shares model is applied to data on Chinese wheat imports in the 1980's. The results indicate that the United States has been outperforming the other exporters since subsidised US wheat sales were authorised for China in 1987. The implications of the analysis for the smaller exporters and international wheat trade are discussed.     

Canadian Exports of Livestock and Meat to the United States

Canadian exports of beef and live cattle to the United States have increased significantly since the late 1980s. Hog and pork exports have increased since the mid-1990s. Major factors affecting exports of beef, pork, cattle and hogs from Canada to the United States include the exchange rate, increased Canadian production, Canada-U.S. price differentials and trade liberalization under the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1989. Increased Canadian exports have resulted in small but significant reductions in U.S. domestic prices of beef, pork and hogs.     

Agriculture in the United States,Mexico, Canada Agreement: Agreeing to keep things pretty much the same

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was referred to by U.S. President Trump as one of the worst trade deals ever made. Given this billing, one might have expected the result of its renegotiation to be a major change to the trading relationship between the United States and Canada. The new United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA), however, retains a great deal of its predecessor. This is particularly true for agricultural trade. Canadian market access into the United States remains virtually unchanged. No major domestic regulatory changes were agreed to by Canada. While there were concessions made on market access for U.S. products into Canada's heavily protected sectors where the supply management policy applies, they do not appear to threaten the system. While the value of the compensation has not yet been announced, compensation for losses that will be suffered by farmers producing under supply management is agreed in principle. The USMCA is an agreement to keep things pretty much the same.     

U.S. Citrus Import Demand: Seasonality and Substitution

Citrus fruits make up 1/5 of all fresh fruit consumed in the United States. Given the increasing importance of imported citrus in the diet of American consumers, it is perhaps surprising that no import demand analysis of U.S. citrus has been conducted. Using quarterly U.S. import data for 6 citrus commodities, we employed a demand systems model and evaluated aspects of seasonality. The results suggest wide variations in price responses to different types of imported citrus. The average amplitude and phase shift suggest that all citrus fruits exhibit some seasonality in their imports, likely a result of peak harvesting schedules of exporters.     

A joint test of market power, menu costs, and currency invoicing

This article investigates exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and currency invoicing decisions of Canadian pork exporters in the presence of menu costs. It is shown that when export prices are negotiated in the exporter's currency, menu costs cause threshold effects in the sense that there are bounds within (outside of) which price adjustments are not (are) observed. Conversely, the pass-through is not interrupted by menu costs when export prices are denominated in the importer's currency. The empirical model focuses on pork meat exports from two Canadian provinces to the U.S. and Japan. Hansen's (2000) threshold estimation procedure is used to jointly test for currency invoicing and incomplete pass-through in the presence of menu costs. Inference is conducted using the bootstrap with pre-pivoting methods to deal with nuisance parameters. The existence of menu cost is supported by the data in three of the four cases. It also appears that Quebec pork exporters have some market power and invoice in Japanese yen their exports to Japan. Manitoba exporters also seem to follow the same invoicing strategy, but their ability to increase their profit margin in response to large enough own-currency devaluations is questionable. Our currency invoicing results for sales to the U.S. are consistent with subsets of Canadian firms using either the Canadian or U.S. currency.     

The effects of the Yuan‐dollar exchange rate on agricultural commodity trade between the United States,China, and their competitors

The United States claims that the undervaluation of Chinese currency, the Yuan, causes U.S. exports to China to decrease and imports from China to increase. Furthermore, because the Yuan is undervalued only against the dollar, U.S. competitors have an advantage in exporting to China and China has an advantage over its competitors in exporting to the United States. This study develops a theoretical model to analyze the effect of the Yuan undervaluation on prices, supply, demand, and trade in the United States, China, and their competitors. This study applies a cointegration/error‐correction model to empirically quantify the short‐run and long‐run effects of the devaluation of the Yuan on important agricultural commodities traded between the United States, China, and their competitors. These commodities include Chinese imports of milk, soybeans, and cotton from the United States and U.S. imports of beans, fruit juice, and fruit from China. The results show that Yuan devaluation causes Chinese imports of U.S. milk, soybeans, and cotton to decline and U.S. imports of beans, fruit juice, and fruit from China to increase in the short run and in the long run.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.     

The law and economics of Canada's WTO litigation contesting U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL)

We explain the interplay of law and economics in the successful WTO challenge by Canada of U.S. mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) measures for beef and pork, which hinged on origin of livestock used in U.S. meat production. Canada mounted a successful legal and economic strategy to convince WTO adjudicating bodies that the United States had violated specific WTO provisions. Canada's economic evidence shows that through costs of segregation the COOL measure harmed the competitive position of Canadian cattle and hogs in the U.S. market. Economic evidence was built into the strategy and cited by the WTO Panels in support of their legal findings that the COOL measure violated U.S. obligations under WTO agreements. Canada was awarded rights to more than one billion Canadian dollars in retaliation and the United States responded by eliminating the offending COOL measure. The COOL case demonstrates how economic and econometric evidence can be used in complex dispute settlement proceedings dealing with technical trade barriers. Economics is especially valuable in the initial stage of framing the effects at issue, in the intermediate stages of documenting empirical causation and in the final stage of litigation, which was to calculate and defend the amount of retaliation.     

Food Consumption Trends in the Pacific Rim

The growing affluence of the Pacific Rim countries has changed food consumption patterns. Diets in the region have become more diverse and well-balanced nutritionally. Western-style foods are becoming increasingly popular and available to people in the region. The rapid growth of fast-food chains and supermarkets present U.S. agricultural exporters with a myriad of opportunities for exporting food products to the Pacific Rim. Food producers who are willing to modify their products to the tastes of Pacific Rim consumers will have the most success. By reformulating food products and developing new packaging technologies more high-value foods can be sold in the Pacific Rim. U.S. food processors must also develop improved methods of processing traditional foods eaten by people in the region into more convenient forms. Finally, it is important for U.S. agricultural exporters to keep a close watch on the changing trends in food consumption in the region in order to stay competitive and increase their opportunities for entering new markets.     

Aquaculture imports from Asia: an analysis of U.S. consumer demand for select food quality attributes

The increasing share of imported food in the United States, coupled with highly publicized incidents of food contamination and adulteration in Asia, particularly China, is posing new challenges for consumers and food safety regulators. In this study, we focus on imported shrimp and tilapia, to evaluate consumer willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for enhanced food safety, use of antibiotics, and eco‐friendly environmental practices. Results show that U.S. consumers were willing‐to‐pay more for enhanced food safety, followed by the use of no antibiotics and environmental friendly production practices. American consumers in our sample were found to have a higher WTP for domestic products and placed more trust on U.S. government verification of product attributes followed by third‐party certification.     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。     

Comparing heterogeneous consumption in U.S. and Japanese meat and fish demand

This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre‐committed meat and fish demand by U.S. and Japanese households using the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS). Pre‐committed demand represents the component of demand that is insensitive to both income and price adjustments. U.S. consumers are found to hold significant positive pre‐committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant, positive pre‐committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partially explain observed differences in Japanese and U.S. consumer reactions to nonprice and nonincome effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance, the more general GAIDS is preferred to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) for both the U.S. and Japanese demand systems. Results lend to improved demand modeling efforts and more complete understanding of true market forces at hand in meat and fish markets for these culturally diverse consumer groups.     

Market Power and World Price: The Role of Asian Rice Exporters

An attempt has been made in this study to assess the market power of major Asian exporters in world rice market using standard oligopoly models. Quantity has been used as the strategic variable based on previous literature. Structural and reduced form approaches have been used. Results indicate that the major Asian rice exporters like Thailand, China, and India face a downward sloping demand curve whereas the United States does not appear to possess market power. However, the results are inconclusive about the precise market structure. The results, in the backdrop of the history of world rice markets, indicate a need for Asian exporters to rely more on trade than on domestic stocks in order to reduce the thinness of world rice market.     

Demand for Beef from Cattle Administered Growth Hormones or Fed Genetically Modified Corn: A Comparison of Consumers in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States

We compare consumer valuations of beef ribeye steaks from cattle produced without growth hormones or genetically modified corn in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results suggest that French consumers place a higher value on beef from cattle that have not been administered added growth hormones than U.S. consumers; however, valuations of non-hormone-treated beef are statistically indistinguishable across Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results also suggest that European consumers place a much higher value on beef from cattle that have not been fed genetically modified corn than U.S. consumers.     

Impacts of Policy Reforms on the Supply of Mexican Labor to U.S. Farms: New Evidence from Mexico

The availability of immigrant farm-workers from Mexico is a critical factor affecting the U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable sector. This paper uses retrospective panel data from rural Mexico to examine the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Immigration Reform and Control Act on the supply of migrant labor to the United States. We find that, in contrast to expectations, both policies were associated with an increase in migration to U.S. farm jobs from rural Mexico.     

Estimating the U.S. Import Demand for Melons: A Dynamic Analysis Approach

The United States is one of the world's leading consumers as well as one of the world's leading producers of melons. However, U.S. melons are produced only from May through December. In order to supplement the domestic demand and make melons available year-round, the United States imports melons from Latin American countries. This article analyzes the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using monthly data on import volumes and values. A static and a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System are estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The estimated parameters are used to estimate the short- and long-run price and expenditure elasticities.     

Effects of Product Origin and Selected Demographics on Consumer Choice of Red Meats

A multinomial nonlinear nested logit model is used to test data from a stated preference questionnaire to examine the potential effect of identified product and consumer characteristics on the probability of afresh meat product being purchased. The target market of the study is western Canada, and the questionnaire is directed to randomly selected households in major cities in this region. Fresh beef products from Alberta are generally preferred by these consumers over fresh beef products from other parts of Canada. For pork, consumers are indifferent between products of Alberta and those of other Canadian origin. However, fresh beef and pork products from Canada are preferred to products from the United States. The results support origin branding of Alberta beef, but not Alberta pork. Consumer age, household income and family size all have an effect on meat choices.     

Revisiting U.S. country of origin labeling trade damage estimates how does an equilibrium displacement model perform under different scenarios

Mexico and Canada successfully challenged the U.S. mandatory country of origin labeling (COOL) requirements for beef and pork as inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, which ultimately led to arbitration over the level of trade lost due to the COOL measure. During this phase of the dispute, Mexico, Canada, and the United States provided the Arbitration Panel with estimates of the trade losses caused by COOL that were produced using different quantitative methods. The U.S. estimates were based on an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This article presents a version of the EDM used by the U.S. Government to calculate trade losses due to COOL. The Panel developed its own analysis combining econometric analysis and an EDM that used only supply-side information to calculate changes in Canadian and Mexican livestock trade. The U.S. EDM includes both the supply and demand sides of the market. We use the U.S. EDM and the Panel's assumptions to re-estimate the value of lost trade due to COOL. The inclusion of demand-side effects and domestic COOL costs produces lower estimated trade damages than those produced using the Panel's analysis, validating the EDM as a useful quantitative tool for this type of trade policy analysis.     

Acceptance of genetically modified food: comparing consumer perspectives in the United States and South Korea

This study examines public perceptions of biotechnology, specifically the consumer approval of genetically modified food products, from plant as well as from animal origin, based on data collected from national surveys conducted in both the United States and South Korea. South Korean consumers reported better understanding of food production, science, and technology relative to U.S. consumers. South Korean consumers also recalled having heard more about genetic modification than did U.S. consumers. Findings also suggest that consumers in the United States and South Korea who possessed an accurate knowledge of the applications and outcomes of genetic modification technology were more likely to approve of its use for the creation of foods than those who had inaccurate or no knowledge of the technology. Results also indicate that consumers who considered labeling of genetically modified foods to be necessary are less likely to approve of the genetic modification of foods than those who did not. Consumers in both countries are less approving of genetic modification of animals than the genetic modification of plants. However, U.S. consumers are more approving of using genetic modification technology to create animal‐derived foods than are South Korean consumers.     

The Chinese Enigma: Impacts of WTO Accession Upon Canadian and U.S. Exports and Imports

China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an important milestone in the integration of this nation into the world economy. Substantial reduction in trade barriers by China, one of the world's largest and most rapidly growing economies, is expected to have a significant impact, both on China itself and on the global economy. In assessing likely impacts on trade between China and North America of China joining the WTO, a priori one might expect new opportunities for China in labor intensive activities/products, while for the United States and for Canada one might expect added export market opportunities, as China grows, in activities/products that require land, resources and capital. However, the extent to which China and its trading partners will benefit from China's increasing integration into the global economy will largely depend on the internal changes in policy and infrastructure that may be adopted by China. China has embarked on a process of economic reform, but the speed and extent to which this continues to be pursued will affect this nation's ability to capitalize on its comparative advantages and to meet new challenges that are associated with the opportunities of access to a larger market. The difficulty of forecasting such internal changes means that China continues to be a major source of uncertainty in projecting world markets and trade flows. This uncertainty is particularly evident for trade in agricultural products