Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?

The LINKAGE model of the global economy and the latest GlobalTrade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (version 6.05) are usedto examine the impact of current merchandise trade barriersand agricultural subsidies and possible reform outcomes of theWorld Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Doha DevelopmentAgenda. The results suggest that moving to free global merchandisetrade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionatelymore than in other developing countries or in high-income countries,despite the terms of trade loss in parts of that region. Particularattention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute thepoorest households in developing countries but the most assistedin rich countries. Net farm incomes would rise substantiallyin Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing country regions,alleviating rural poverty. Partial liberalization could movethe world some way toward those desirable outcomes, the moreso the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs,particularly on agricultural imports.     

International Control of Subsidies and Countervailing Duties

The range and number of cases of administered protection inthe 1980s suggests that it has begun to play an important rolein shaping international trade flows. As most of such casesare brought by the United States against developing countryexporters, they are also a matter of concern for developingcountries in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The internationallynegotiated code on subsidies and countervailing duties is ambiguousin its definition of "legal" subsidies, and thus in the appropriateuse of countervailing duties. Because the code is applied atthe national level, there is considerable pressure by domesticproducers on administering agents to increase the use of suchprotective measures through the adoption of provisional measureswhile the investigation is being conducted, and through theinterpretation of criteria for coverage. Given that the mostsuccessful developing countries have been those which adoptthe most neutral policies toward imported and domestic goods,and between sectors domestically, the very biased applicationof the subsidies and the trade policy distortions common inthe countries examined, together with the frequency of countervailingactions against the subsidies, suggest that developing countrieswould benefit from abandonment of the subsidies.     

Trade liberalization and the skill premium in developing economies

Empirical evidence shows that while the skill premium narrowed in some developing countries following trade liberalization, it widened in others, or even exhibited non-monotonic behavior. This paper studies a simple dynamic general equilibrium trade model in which differences in initial conditions across developing countries play a key role in explaining the variety of skill premium behaviors. Differences in initial conditions in terms of skilled labor and physical capital emerge in the model due to differences in trade policies. The model can generate non-monotonic behavior for the skill premium following trade liberalization.     

Balance of Payments and Related Issues in the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations

Little attention has been paid to the balance of payments provisionsof the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), despitethe fact that they directly influence the trade policies ofthe developing countries. This article suggests that there isa need to reconsider these provisions in the context of theongoing Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Thearticle traces the historical evolution of GATT practices ontrade restrictions for balance of payments purposes. With thegeneral introduction of more flexible exchange rate arrangements,the original rationale for temporary barriers to safeguard acountry's external financial position appears to have lost itsforce. Recent theoretical and empirical work has demonstratedthat neutral or export promoting trade strategies are more effectivefor development than the import substitution frequently advocatedby economists in the 1950s and 1960s. The current debt problemsof developing countries strengthen the argument for a relativelyopen trade and payments regime to attain balance of paymentsviability. The article suggests that stronger internationaldiscipline over trade restrictions for balance of payments purposeswould contribute to and presuppose other necessary improvementsin the multilateral trading system which are already on theagenda of the Uruguay Round.     

International trade and climate change

This paper provides a selective review of the interaction between international trade, international trade policies, environmental policies and climate change. The focus is on the role that international trade and the existence of countries have on the generation of emissions leading to greenhouse gas stocks in the atmosphere and hence, potentially, to climate change and on the role of trade and environmental policies in dealing with this global externality. We first review the question of whether trade exacerbates or contributes to the climate change problem by increasing global emissions, a particularly important issue being the pollution haven problem. Then we consider environmental policies and trade. We analyse non-cooperative environmental policies and investigate whether trade undermines the effectiveness of unilateral environmental policies, in which carbon leakage and international competitiveness are of particular importance. To deal with climate change, cooperation among countries is important. In this aspect, we review the interactions between trade and environmental policies, border tax adjustment policies, and the role of the World Trade Organization in combating climate change arising from economic activities.     

REFORM OF TRADE POLICY: Recent Evidence from Theory and Practice

In the 1980s many developing countries began to recognize thatrestrictive trade policies can constrain growth. To facilitatetrade and integration into the world economy, many countrieshave embarked on reform programs. This survey synthesizes theconclusions of the literature on trade policy reform with thoseof a recent study by the World Bank analyzing reforms in developingcountries, particularly those supported by adjustment lendingprograms. Its objective is to shed light on some of the questionsabout these programs to guide policymakers in the future. Thearticle reviews conditions in these countries before trade policyreforms were implemented and examines how much reform actuallytook place. It also examines the effects of the reforms on economicperformance and reviews the factors that constrained the reformprocess. The survey considers the most important issues in designingand implementing trade policy reforms and concludes that althoughpast reforms have had a positive impact, future programs shouldemphasize three elements: reducing the level of protection,maintaining macroeconomic stability, and accounting for theconflicts and complementarities with other policies.      

An Argument for Deregulating the Transfer of Agricultural Technologies to Developing Countries

In the past few decades many developing countries have liberalizedtrade and investment, removing barriers to imports and allowingthe introduction of new foreign technologies. Unfortunately,agriculture often remains outside this reform process. Regulatoryobstacles continue to restrain the transfer of technologiesthrough private trade in seeds and other inputs. Industrialcountries characteristically allow the transfer of private andpublic technologies through multiple channels. Developing countriesoften force technology transfer through a single channel controlledby government agencies, with an emphasis on official performancetests. This article analyzes the institutional arrangementsgoverning the international transfer of new agricultural technologies,examining the cases of agricultural machinery in Bangladeshand seed varieties in Turkey. The analysis shows that allowingthe private transfer of technologies and refocusing input regulationson externalities could lead to significant productivity andincome gains in developing countries.     

Trade in International Maritime Services: How Much Does Policy Matter?

Maritime transport costs significantly impede internationaltrade. This article examines why these costs are so high insome countries and quantifies the importance of two explanations:restrictive trade policies and private anticompetitive practices.It finds that both matter, but the latter have a greater impact.Trade liberalization and the breakup of private carrier agreementswould lead to an average of one-third lower liner transportprices and to cost savings of up to US$3 billion on goods carriedto the United States alone. The policy implications are clear:there is a need not only for further liberalization of governmentpolicy but also for strengthened international disciplines onrestrictive business practices. The authors propose an approachto developing such disciplines in the current round of servicesnegotiations at the World Trade Organization.     

External and budget deficits in some developing countries

This paper documents and explains the positive comovement between the external and budget deficits of developing countries for which post-1960 time-series data are available. First, the estimates indicate that the empirical covariance between these deficits is always positive and is statistically significant for many cases. Second, the empirical covariance is close to that predicted from a tractable small open-economy, overlapping-generation model with heterogeneous goods capturing the joint behavior of the external and budget deficits. Also, the predicted covariance is induced by shocks which are closely related to internal conditions such as domestic resources and fiscal policies, and to a much lesser extent to external conditions such as the world interest rate, real exchange rate, and terms of trade.     

Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development

A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic conditions for poor families if they hope to reduce population growth. Education and job opportunities must be expanded and social security provided for the elderly. In the past it was assumed that fertility would only decline when urbanization, industrialization, and income reached a certain level. It is now known that appropriate policies can effectively reduce fertility even in the absence of economic advancement. Fertility declines are more closely related to increases in literacy and life expectancy than to increases in the gross national product. Family planning programs in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia have reduced fertility far below the level normally associated with the income levels prevailing in those countries.     

经济政策不确定性如何影响企业出口决策？——基于出口频率的视角

出口频率作为出口决策的重要一环,是企业出口扩张的新边际,也是出口变化的“晴雨表”。本文在随机存货模型的基础上,考察了经济政策不确定性对企业出口频率的影响及其传导渠道,并采用2000-2006年工业企业数据库与海关数据库的匹配数据进行实证检验,结果发现:目的国经济政策不确定性增加会显著降低企业出口频率,且这一影响存在部分惯性效应;经济政策不确定性通过贸易成本、存货成本和市场需求波动共同影响企业出口频率的中介效应十分显著,其中贸易成本是最重要的传导渠道,占比达到19%以上;如果进一步考虑目的国、产品和企业异质性,会发现出口目的国经济发展水平较高、出口产品为中间品和消费品的企业,其出口频率受经济政策不确定性的影响较小。因此,政府和企业应高度关注出口频率的变化趋势,合理应对经济政策不确定性对出口决策的外部冲击。     

Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Important for Developing Economies?

This article assesses the impact of the world price–depressingeffect of agricultural subsidies and border protection in OECDcountries on developing economies' exports, imports, and welfare.Developing economy exporters are likely to benefit from reductionsin such subsidies and trade barriers, whereas net importersmay lose as world prices rise. A simple partial equilibriummodel of global trade in commodities that benefit from domesticsupport or export subsidies is developed to estimate the relevantelasticities. Simulation results suggest that a 50 percent reductionin border protection will have a much larger positive impacton developing economies' exports and welfare than a 50 percentreduction in agricultural subsidies. Although there is significantheterogeneity across developing economies, the results suggestthat efforts in the Doha Round of negotiations should be directed at substantially reducing border protection.     

Optimal taxation and public provision for poverty reduction

The existing literature on optimal taxation typically assumes there exists a capacity to implement complex tax schemes, which is not necessarily the case for many developing countries. We examine the determinants of optimal redistributive policies in the context of a developing country that can only implement linear tax policies due to administrative reasons. Further, the reduction of poverty is typically the expressed goal of such countries, and this feature is also taken into account in our model. We derive the optimality conditions for linear income taxation, commodity taxation, and public provision of private and public goods for the poverty minimization case and compare the results to those derived under a general welfarist objective function. We also study the implications of informality on optimal redistributive policies for such countries. The exercise reveals non-trivial differences in optimal tax rules under the different assumptions.     

跨国企业的规模扩张与东亚经贸关系的紧密化——中国对外贸易增长的国际背景

中国加入WTO后,外贸出口急速增长,有关各方也对中国外贸出口的激增产生了不信任感。中国出口增长的原因,除经济成长、贸易政策等内部因素外,在华跨国企业的生产—出口的增加是引起中国外贸出口增长的重要外部因素。同时,跨国企业的贸易活动促进了外资来源国与贸易伙伴国之间的一致性,进而推动了区域经贸一体化进程。基于中国与主要贸易伙伴—主要外资来源国是互补型的贸易关系,中国的出口增长对于这些国家来说是安全的。     

The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty

Most researchers examining poverty and multilateral trade liberalizationhave had to examine average, or per capita effects, suggestingthat if per capita real income rises, poverty will fall. Thisinference can be misleading. Combining results from a new internationalcross-section consumption analysis with earnings data from householdsurveys, this article analyzes the implications of multilateraltrade liberalization for poverty in Indonesia. It finds thatthe aggregate reduction in Indonesia's national poverty headcountfollowing global trade liberalization masks a more complex setof impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty headcountrises slightly for self-employed agricultural households, asagricultural profits fail to keep up with increases in consumerprices. In the long run the poverty headcount falls for allearnings strata, as increased demand for unskilled workers liftsincomes for the formerly self-employed, some of whom move intothe wage labor market. A decomposition of the poverty changesin Indonesia associated with different countries' trade policiesfinds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction inpoverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of Indonesia'strade policies leads to an increase. The method used here canbe readily extended to any of the other 13 countries in thesample.     

虚拟土地进口视角下的中美农产品贸易效益分析

2018年以来,中美农产品贸易受两国贸易争端影响严重,2020年初中美签署的第一阶段经贸协议,对两国后续农产品贸易具有深远影响.基于要素禀赋理论和机会成本理论,本文对2001～2019年中国进口美国7类最主要的农产品的贸易动态、虚拟土地含量和虚拟土地面积以及进口效益进行分析发现:中国对美国农产品的虚拟土地面积进口呈总体...     

碳关税与我国现行税制中的“碳税”政策调整

近年来,碳税作为一种应对全球温室气体排放的政策被许多西方国家所青睐,但在实践中却说得多、做得少。我国作为发展中的大国,能源消耗和节能减排的压力很大,但我国现行税制中其实不乏碳税的实质内容。面对西方国家所谓碳关税的贸易保护政策,我国有必要对现行相关税制内容进行调整和完善。     

The politics of transnational accountability policies and the (re)construction of corruption: The case of Tunisia,Transparency International and the World Bank

This study explores the intersection between accountability policies and anti-corruption measures. Transnational actors define acceptable governance and implement accountability policies on the assumption that corruption is a problem endemic to developing countries. Such accountability policies influence and help constitute transnational geographic and social spaces. However, the impacts of such assumptions and the resultant policies on developing countries and their citizens have not been widely investigated. This study uses a critical discourse analysis of the case of Tunisia before and after its 2011 revolution, to explore the politics and vested interests specific to anti-corruption policies promoted by transnational actors. The study’s contribution is twofold: Firstly, we identify the highly fungible character of the emanant cycles of Western-driven corruption discourses, and indicate their consequences in Tunisia. Secondly, we propose a future research agenda towards non-exploitative anti-corruption and accountability policies.     

西方工业国贸易保护的历史演进和发展趋势分析

本文分析了西方工业国家不同历史阶段贸易保护理论和政策的发展变化 ,归纳了贸易保护的规律性和发展趋势 ,提出了在经济全球化趋势下 ,贸易保护仍然是各国政策的支撑点 ,进一步分析了新贸易保护主义的特点和发展趋势以及对我国参与国际经济和贸易的重要启示。     

“一带一路”贸易空间关联与我国关税政策优化——基于网络、空间和制度的实证分析

基于2010-2015年"一带一路"沿线国家对华贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法(SNA)分析沿线国家对华贸易空间关联网络结构,结果发现:沿线国家对华贸易空间关联规模较大,呈现出复杂的、具有"中心-边缘"形态的网络结构,土耳其、俄罗斯、印度、埃及等国家处于网络的中心地位.在贸易空间关联网络基础上,构建空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间杜宾模型(SDM),考量"一带一路"沿线国家对华贸易的关税政策因素,结果表明:沿线各国的关税政策不仅对本国对华贸易存在显著的影响,而且对相邻国家的对华贸易也具有一定的"外溢效应".因此,我国在制定促进"一带一路"贸易畅通的关税政策时,应创新协同治理思路,努力消除关税壁垒,深化双边和多边税收合作,建立多层次、差异化的税收协调机制,发挥关税制度正向空间外溢效应.