An Alternative Post-Keynesian Framework for Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This article contributes to the establishment of a framework for the analysis of international capital flows, with a specific focus on emerging markets. It is based on a “monetary” analysis of the economy, as well as on the works of Hyman Minsky and Jan Toporowski in particular. The key aspects of such an approach are the following. First, in a monetary economy, capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds” that pertain to the realm of financial choices, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows as based on “real” variables, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need to focus on gross flows rather than capital flows. Second, liquidity preference considerations also apply at the international level, particularly in relation to the liquidity of emerging-market currencies that, in turn, depends on context-specific “Keynesian fundamentals.” Third, the rise of institutional investors is the key historical development in the financial system, shaping the current reality of cross-border capital flows, including to emerging markets. I argue that institutional investors’ liabilities, in light of the theories of Minsky and Toporowski, are one of the most important variables in determining these investors’ portfolio choices. I synthesize these elements by defining capital flows to emerging markets as the demand for emerging-market assets by institutional investors. I propose a framework to categorize the various channels that guide this demand.     

Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials

In order to deal with growing uncertainties and to preserve their competitiveness, enterprises should identify future success potentials very early and develop them on time. Scenario management is a very powerful method to manage this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that are adjusted precisely to their enterprise. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. The five phases of a scenario project are explained with the aid of a concrete example. It is also shown how scenario management is used to develop corporate or business strategies. Furthermore, it is used to develop similar elements of these strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies.     

Ranking Journals Following a Matching Model Approach: An Application to Public Economics Journals

Journal rankings based on citation indexes are widely used in the economics field. This paper proposes an alternative way to rank journals based on the publishing behavior of top‐ranked authors. I justify this approach by depicting the scientific publishing market as following a matching process. Compared with the citation approach, the methodology that we propose has advantages in terms of time effort to produce national and subdiscipline rankings. It also corrects the impact underestimation that the citation approach tends to produce in new and re‐founded journals. This paper proposes an empirical application to the case of public economics journals.     

Structural Balance of Trade Deficits in a Small Open Economy with Exogenous Capital Flows: A Monetary Approach*

This paper presents a ‘structural’ balance of trade model which can be interpreted as combining two major building blocks. The first one is identical to the monetary approach to the balance of payments. The second, which explains the price level, consists of the orthodox Scandinavian model of price and wage determination. It is shown that under these assumptions the balance of trade deficit can be broken down into a structural, an imported, and a ‘home-made’ component. A n empirical illustration of the structural balance of trade model is given for the New Zealand economy.     

Aids: An Economic Approach to the Choice of Policies*

This paper presents a novel approach to the difficult problem of society choosing the optimal set of policy instruments to control the spread of AIDS. The economic approach emphasizes the determinants of agents' behaviour and the reciprocal nature of the market failure problem. The nature of the social objective function is discussed and an expected-utility-maximizing model of the behaviour of HIV-infectious agents is developed In the light of the agents' responses to government policies, some general principles relating to the ranking of instruments and their targeting of individual groups and of instrument variables are developed     

An Analysis of a Rules-based Approach to Disciplining Export Credits in Agriculture

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the comparative static effects of rules-based disciplines for government supported export credit arrangements. The arrangements provide traders in the country offering the guarantees more favourable borrowing conditions. This may provide an advantage relative to rival exporters since the supported trader may offer better financial terms to importers. Rules that discipline implicit interest rate subsidies are appropriate when an importing country does not face liquidity constraints when borrowing. However, these rules may not be appropriate with liquidity constraints because of the potential for additionality and benefits for all exporting countries. Rules on benchmarks for insurance premiums are always appropriate because insurance subsidies unambiguously have the potential to distort markets.     

校园外语广播电台：文化输入的有效途径

校园外语广播电台的开播突破了时空限制,成为学习外语技能和技巧的有效补充。探索外语电台对学习者文化输入的影响。通过电台播音员的个案研究,发现外语电台实践是获得外语文化的有效途径之一。但是外语物质文化易于制度文化、艺术形式文化及文化意识的习得。最后,提出文化选材动态化和文化输入常规化的观点。     

The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach

This article develops the first model in which, consistentwith the empirical evidence, the transition from stagnation toeconomic growth is a very long endogenous process. The modelhas one steady state with a low and stagnant level of incomeper capita and another steady state with a high and growing levelof income per capita. Both of these steady states are locallystable under the perfect foresight assumption. We relax the perfectforesight assumption and introduce adaptive learning into thisenvironment. Learning acts as an equilibrium selection criterionand provides an interesting transition dynamic between steadystates. We find that for sufficiently low initial values of humancapital—values that would tend to characterize preindustrialeconomies—the system under learning spends a long periodof time (an epoch) in the neighborhood of the low-income steadystate before finally transitioning to a neighborhood of the high-incomesteady state. We argue that this type of transition dynamic providesa good characterization of the economic growth and developmentpatterns that have been observed across countries.     

技术的社会形成研究路线简介

新技术社会学兴起于20世纪80年代的欧美,其理论核心是“技术的社会形成”（SST)或“技术的社会建构”。具体分析了这一理论的3条研究路线：社会建构方法、技术系统方法、行动者网络方法。     

An Alternative Approach to the Concept of Demand

The authors argue that the loanable-funds approach is substantively equivalent to the more widely used IS-LM pedagogy but is simpler and more readily comprehended by students. They demonstrate its use for analyzing the macroeconomic goods, money, and labor market interactions and policy applications.     

An Equilibrium Approach to the Aggregation of Beliefs

This paper presents a new answer to the old question of how to aggregate individual beliefs. We construct a model which allows agents to take arbitrage opportunities against the aggregated belief by making contingent claims against the states, and the aggregator (market maker) regulates the probability of states. When all claims from the agents are mutually covered for every realization of the state, an aggregation of individual beliefs is thus obtained. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium aggregation, and also show that the aggregate belief lies in the convex hull of individual beliefs. This model allows us to address some important problems such as how individual agent’s attitude toward risk and wealth endowment affect the outcome of the aggregation process, and whether the aggregate belief satisfies the well-known properties like equal treatment.     

An Index Approach to Measuring Product Differentiation: A Hedonic Analysis of Airfares

The main objective of this paper is to introduce an Allen-type index of differentiation based on cost functions. With this index, we create an economic measure of product differentiation that quantifies differences between products. Applied research has some generally accepted economic measures, for example, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index for market concentration, or the Gini coefficient for inequality. Product differentiation, however, does not yet have an established measure. Our objective is to fill that gap and introduce a measure that can be used in market-related applied research such as market power, antitrust, price indexes, or market strategy. To operationalize the index, we introduce the concept of a core product and use cost functions to measure the degree of differentiation from the core product. To demonstrate the use of the index, we study the effect of product differentiation on price formation in the airline industry using an enhanced hedonic model. The model is empirically tested on 103,980 observations of quarterly US domestic airfare data between 2002 and 2016 and shows that product differentiation has a significant effect on both price and mark-up.     

Why Sunk Costs Matter for Bargaining Outcomes: An Evolutionary Approach

Two bargaining parties play the Nash Demand Game to share a pie whose size is determined by one party's investment decision. Various investment levels are subgame-perfect. Adding the investment decision to Young's evolutionary bargaining model yields the following long-run outcome: efficient investment prevails and the investor's share of the pie approximates die maximum of (i) the smallest share that induces efficient investment, even if the investor expects to appropriate the available pie from every inefficient investment, and (ii) half of the pie. The result favors forward induction to subgame consistency and equity theory to hold-ups. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C78, L14.     

Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows. Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.