信用卡的获利能力

我国的信用卡行业已经进入迅速发展的阶段，竞争日趋激烈。同时，随着中国加入WTO以及2006年外资银行全面开展人民币业务，整个国内银行业都面临着巨大的冲击，作为银行主要业务之一的信用卡行业也将接受挑战。根据国外经验，商业银行的信用卡业务收入占到整个银行收益的1／3，有的甚至达到一半。而我国四大国有商业银行和其他各商业银行的信用卡业务收入却十分微薄，虽然已开始作为各商业银行业务发展规划的重点，     

Tax incentives and manufacturing profitability in puerto rico

Carlos Diaz-Seda and Felix Vasquez provided research assistance.     

Determinants of the profitability of China's regional SOEs

This paper examines the determinants of the profitability of China's local state enterprises. The investment share of non-state enterprises is found to be positively related to the profitability of regional SOEs. Openness measured by exports share in GDP is positively related to regional SOEs' profitability in all cross-sectional and most panel regressions. Debt ratio is negatively related to SOEs' profitability in most cross-sectional and panel regressions. The ratio of unhealthy assets to total assets is negatively related to the profitability in all cross-sectional regressions and is negatively but insignificantly related to the profitability in most panel regressions.     

农业生产商提高企业盈利的五项措施

农产品的生产企业正在经历着很大的变化。农产品生产商只关注本地情况，无视外地所发生的变化，却依然有望获利的日子早已一去不复返了。在竞争日益全球化的今天，生产者必须对周围世界有一个清醒的认识，而且在面对不断增加的信息时，必须能够做出明智的决策。在面向全球的市场竞争中，     

Bank profitability and the bank lending channel: Evidence from China

This paper uses bank-level data to investigate whether the impact of monetary policy on bank lending depends on the characteristics of Chinese banks during the period 1985–2007. We find that the impact of monetary policy on lending is weaker for larger banks and banks with lower levels of liquidity, and that banks’ responses to monetary policy do not necessarily vary according to their capital. Further, to identify the bank lending channel more clearly, we test whether the impact of monetary policy varies according to profitability. The results show that profitable banks tend to be less sensitive to monetary policy, because when tight monetary policy leads to a fall in deposits, less profitable banks face a higher cost of capital.     

Uncertainty and monetary policy

The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environmenthas encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty,that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model. A particulardifficulty has been the need to operationalise the concept inorder to yield definitive policy recommendations. If this typeof uncertainty is unquantifiable, then a policy rule determinedby a single model may not in fact be the best approach; pluralismof method and the exercise of judgement offer a potential solution.A rigorous foundation for such an approach is available in Keynes'sphilosophical analysis of decision making under uncertainty.It is concluded that more analytical attention needs to be devotedto agents’ own model uncertainty, and to judgement. Butultimately the scope for synthesis between the model uncertaintyand Keynes uncertainty approaches rests on whether or not thesubject matter is such that knowledge of it is best representedby one formal model.     

宏观经济的不确定性

中国宏观经济的不确定性与三个事实紧密相关：便宜的排污、便宜的货币和便宜的劳动力。这三项都是高度扭曲、不可持续的因素,也是导致全球失衡的根本。在100年前,所有国家都处在农业文明中,没有谁会关心污染排放问题。例如,当时中国主要的要素投入是人口,而人口是不需要排污的。     

Russia’s public catering: Characteristics,profitability, and dynamics

Public catering in the Soviet period is compared to that at present. Official statistics and alternative assessments of the industry’s financial results in 2001 and its dynamics over the period 2000–2005 are presented. The gross value added of public catering is updated on the basis of the revealed turnover underestimation. The industry’s shadow incomes are shown; a case for raising tax payments is made; and the possible size of increased tax payments is shown.     

Import Policy Uncertainty and Innovation

The Chinese government has emphasized innovation as the primary driving force for economic development in the new era. This paper studies the effect of import policy uncertainty (IPU) on the innovation activity of Chinese manufacturing firms. It establishes a simple model to show that the presence of IPU encourages innovation and that a reduction in IPU discourages innovation. It distinguishes the almost unnoticed IPU reduction from tariff reduction on China's WTO accession and develops a novel difference-in-differences specification that identifies the negative effect of IPU reduction on innovation using updated data for Chinese manufacturing and patent filings. The result holds after a battery of identification assumptions and robustness checks are considered. The import channel explains about two thirds of the effect of IPU on innovation, but not all of the effect. Finally, this paper examines the effect across firms of different levels of productivity and ownership types and patents of different categories.     

Heterogeneous Popularity and Exporting Uncertainty

Empirical work shows that a considerable fraction of firms quit the export market soon after entrance. A natural interpretation to this quick exit from the export market is that firms did not predict the profitability of their variety correctly before entry. In this paper a firm heterogeneity model is put forward to account for this type of exporting uncertainty due to lack of information. Firms are heterogeneous with respect to the popularity of their good, technically the CES weight, and the popularity of a good varies across markets. Therefore, firms are uncertain about the profitability of their good in the export market. Upon payment of sunk export costs the popularity of the good is revealed and some firms stay in the export market while others leave. Comparative statics show that lower sunk export costs lead to higher probability that firms start to export, but to lower probability of export success. Lower fixed export costs instead lead to both a higher probability to start exporting and to be successful in exporting.     

Income Uncertainty and Optimal Redistribution

Implications of income uncertainty for socially efficient redistribution are examined. Counter-intuitively, a policymaker may respond optimally to a negative utility shock in the economy by redistributing income away from those who suffered the shock. In particular, it may be welfare enhancing to redistribute income away from risk-averse taxpayers who suffer an increase in the variance of their earnings. The direction of redistribution following an increase in uncertainty depends on the degree to which absolute risk aversion declines with consumption. A condition is provided for when an efficient policy redistributes away from those facing the greatest uncertainty.     

汇率不确定性与FDI

关于汇率波动如何影响FDI的问题，一直以来都是学者们争论不休的话题。基于以往对FDI的局部均衡分析中将汇率看作外生因子的局限性。本论文借鉴最优货币区理论中的一般均衡分析框架，将汇率设定为由经济基本因素所决定的内生因子，其中重点分析货币因素的变化对汇率，进而对FDI产生影响的机制；从而调和了过去局部均衡分析所得出的矛盾观点，指出，汇率是促进还是抑制FDI主要取决于影响汇率波动的具体因素。     

Aspects of profitability that influence smallholder cash-crop preferences in northern Mozambique

This study analyses profitability in terms of relationships between various aspects, indicators and cash-crop cultivation preferences. Both financial and pragmatic aspects of profitability were found to be related to cash-crop preferences. Apart from the need to promote a crop with a good farm gate price and to reduce production and marketing costs, promoters need to strengthen the wider system by supporting profitability as well as household consumption requirements. The correlation between indicators of expected profitability improved as more financial and pragmatic aspects were incorporated. Smallholder farmers' rankings of profitability correlated better with cash-crop preferences when the analysis incorporated more aspects of profitability. In addition, the results indicated the institutional support needed to improve the profitability of cash crops. This simple method of identifying smallholder preferences for one cash crop among many is of paramount importance in the design of strategies for improving agricultural market participation.     

“危迷”保险业

三十余年,中国保险业从未有像今天这样遭遇全面的滑铁卢。不仅引领中国保险二十余年发展的个人寿险营销模式面临被终结的命运,而且一向被认为开辟了新航道的银行保险也走入死胡同,电话销售更是被全民谴责。一时间迫切需要全面整顿的呐喊声响彻保险全行业。     

混沌理论与不确定性战略管理

每一事物现象间的先后关系按周期分类有准周期、似周期和非周期三种关系。不确定性就是一种非周期性的关系和现象。 根据事件发生的可能性和结果的明确程度,不确定性又可以具体分为四种情况(表1):     

Uncertainty and Optimally Uniform Commodity Taxes

This paper examines the implications of uncertainty for the structure of optimal commodity taxes in the presence of a linear income tax. Consumers face uncertain income and commit to consumption of some goods before the resolution of uncertainty and to others after. Preferences are separable between labor and consumption goods. We prove that optimal commodity taxes are (i) uniform within the category of noncommitted goods if their subutility is logarithmic; (ii) uniform within the two categories if both subutilities are logarithmic; and (iii) nonzero across categories, with the tax rate on precommitted goods being lower than the tax rate on noncommitted goods.