一维到多维贫困测度比较研究——基于粤北山区的调查数据

贫困测度是研究贫困问题的基础,贫困测度的结果决定了反贫困对策的制定和实施,进而影响到贫困问题的解决。自森提出多维贫困概念以来,贫困测度的研究也从一维向多维扩展,很多学者提出了不同的贫困测度方法。论文对一维到多维多种贫困测度方法进行分析述评,利用粤北山区农村家庭样本数据实证分析了一维收入贫困线、FGT指数及Alkire&Foster多维贫困测度方法的优缺点,结论是:收入贫困线及FGT指数适合世界各国或地区之间贫困状况的比较;而A-F多维贫困测度模型不但适合某一地方的贫困测度,还能通过维度分解找出致贫原因,利于制定科学的反贫困对策。     

西部地区农村经济益贫式增长测度

为了深入探讨近年来西部地区农村经济的益贫式增长，根据农村收入五等分分组数据分析西部地区各省份农村2014—2020年经济益贫式增长水平及变化趋势，首先利用FGT指数测算西部地区农村贫困广度、贫困深度和贫困强度，再通过FGT指数分解计算PEGR减贫等值增长率，判断这段时期西部地区各省份农村经济增长的益贫情况。测度结果显示，2014—2018年各省份的贫困状况均未得到改善，2018年之后6个省份的贫困指数均开始有所下降，同时西部地区各省份的经济益贫性程度有差异，2015—2017年各省份的经济增长都是非益贫的，2018—2019年除了陕西省，其他5省(区)经济增长都处于益贫阶段，2019—2020年新疆地区的经济增长具有益贫性，而其他几个省份的贫困人口没有从经济增长中获得更多的收益。从党的十九大到党的二十大，是“两个一百年”奋斗目标的历史交汇期，为继续促进西部地区农村经济益贫式增长，从缩小贫困人口收入差距、增强人力资本投入、完善农村公共服务3方面提出了政策建议。     

发展、分配对反贫困的影响:2002—2010

文章通过分解FGT贫困指数,模拟出2002-2010年中国的经济发展和收入分配各自对反贫困的贡献率。实证结果发现,当前以发展促减贫的开发式扶贫政策依然有效,但是收入分配恶化却拖累了发展带来的减贫成效,且对反贫困的影响越来越大。必须及时调整反贫困战略,通过改善收入再分配让贫困人群分享改革发展的成果。     

收入增长与不平等对农村贫困的影响——基于不同经济活动类型农户的研究

利用国家统计局(NBS)数据,本文测度了1980—2010年间中国农村贫困变动趋势以及收入增长和收入差距对农村贫困的影响;利用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)数据,本文估算了1988—2002年间收入增长与不平等对从事不同经济活动类型农户贫困状况的影响.研究发现:以绝对贫困度量,农村贫困指数不断降低;以相对贫困标准度量,贫困指数有所提升;外出打工是目前农户摆脱贫困的有效方法,相比之下,务农农户贫困状况始终最为严重,增加组内成员收入,缩小组内差距对减少务农农户及农村贫困的意义重大;弹性计算结果显示,尽管收入增长是导致贫困下降的主要原因,但降低组内不平等程度对缓解贫困具有重要作用;四个组别当中,对务农农户组进行资金扶助将起到更大的扶贫效果     

基于教育差距引致农村贫困的背景观察

结合我国农村1983～2006的宏观时间序列数据以及2004、2006的CHNS微观调查数据,探讨教育差距对贫困的影响,研究发现:教育差距的缩小有利于形成初等人力资本,其对消除贫困起到了较大的促进作用;但教育扩展尚未促进贫困减少,教育差距、教育扩展的变化会对贫困形成较大的短期冲击。随着工业化、城市化进程,经济发展对人力资本的需求层次也越来越高,因此有必要进一步缩小教育差距,并且在更高的水平上实现教育扩展,金融发展、经济增长都未表现出促进贫困减少,特别是收入分配差距的扩大将不利于贫困减少。     

贫困、经济增长与脱贫时间:基于中国城镇居民调查数据的分析

贫困指数是衡量社会总体贫困程度的指标,在众多的贫困指数中.本文选择具有良好性能的瓦特指数和由此派生出来的脱贫时间指数,分析了我国城镇上个世纪90年代以来的贫困变化趋势.研究发现,城镇贫困在1997年达到高峰,然后逐渐缓和;贫困人口的收入增长在初期能使脱贫时间迅速下降,但边际效果是递减的;贫困人口之间的收入分配不平等延长了脱贫时间:如果贫困人口的初始收入增加,会明显降低脱贫时间.     

新疆城乡收入差距对保险需求影响的实证分析

近年来,新疆城乡居民收入差距逐步扩大,导致消费结构和层次的变化。本文基于协整分析,利用Granger因果检验法,对1985年-2005年保险需求和收入差距的关系做出实证研究。研究的结果表明,保险需求和收入差距呈正相关且之间具有Granger因果关系,并提出了增加保险需求和缩小收入差距的政策措施。     

新疆城乡居民收入与支出关系的实证分析——兼论影响城乡居民收入差距的原因

非均衡的发展战略使得我国城乡收入分配机制发生了根本性的变化;文章通过对新疆城乡居民收入与支出关系的实证分析,得出新疆城乡居民收入与支出在呈线性关系的同时,也存在着差距不断扩大的趋势,这种趋势阻碍了农村居民消费性支出的增长;文章在最后对引起新疆城乡居民收入差距不断扩大的原因进行分析。     

构建和谐社会视角下的新疆居民收入差距探析

改革开放以来,新疆居民收入普遍大幅度增加,各个阶层群众都获得了改革开放带来的实惠。同时,收入格局也发生了深刻的变化,居民收入差距尤其是城乡之间、地区之间、行业之间的居民收入差距急剧扩大。本文对新疆居民收入差距的现状及产生的原因进行了分析,在此基础上提出了缩小地区收入差距,构建社会主义和谐新疆的对策建议。     

经济增长背景下的城市贫困:以上海为例北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文通过分析1985年至2007年间上海经济增长与城市贫困水平的变化发现:总体上经济高增长带动了绝对贫困发生率的下降,但同时相对贫困发生率却在1990年后逐渐上升。总的来说,上海经济增长1985-1999年间属于亲贫困的增长,但2000年以后,尽管上海经济增长率和人均收入水平不断提高,但收入差距的扩大和不平等恶化造成相对贫困总体趋势日益严重。因此,本文认为在经济发展达到一定水平后,除城市贫困标准外,相对贫困也应成为衡量城市贫困问题的标准。政府在注重减少绝对贫困的同时应关注相对贫困问题,制定有利于贫困人群发展的战略以减少不平等,使贫困者能够从经济增长中更多受益。     

Unemployment, Poverty and Income Disparity in Urban China

This paper studies the issues of unemployment and poverty that have been appearing recently in urban China. It estimates the urban unemployment rate, poverty rate and income disparity using a new sample survey data set. Meanwhile, it analyzes the relationship between unemployment and poverty, and the effects of poverty on urban inequality. The main findings are that: (i) the urban unemployment rate reached 11.6% in 1999 and was a major cause of urban poverty; (ii) growing urban poverty is becoming the significant source of worsening urban inequality; and (iii) migrant households have an increasing influence on urban poverty and the pattern of urban income distribution. The paper concludes that urban income distribution has worsened since 1995, and urban unemployment and poverty are the major factors in this worsening.     

Understanding urban poverty in two high-density suburbs of Harare,Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT

Urban communities are heterogeneous and averages mask inequities and deprivations among poor and rich urban communities. This article examines the situation of households residing in two low-income, high-density suburbs of Harare, Zimbabwe. The aim of the research was to contextualise urban poverty by looking at selected urban communities and vertically analysing the patterns and determinants of poverty. A household survey was administered to 1000 households and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study found high levels of income poverty and also found differences in poverty experiences between the two suburbs. The major proximate determinants of poverty were large family size; low education level of the household head; lack of income from permanent employment; low cash transfers; and short length of residence in the suburb. Increasing household income consumption can be addressed through scaling-up industries, which would result in more quality employment.     

Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

The long-term evolution of national income inequality and rural poverty in China

Using the five waves of the China Household Income Project surveys conducted during 1988–2013, we investigate long-term changes in national income inequality and rural poverty in China. National income inequality rose markedly to 2007 and thereafter fell slightly. Income growth was widely shared, but inequality increased because the high-income percentiles had faster income growth than lower percentiles and because the gap between urban and rural household incomes widened. The fall in income inequality after 2007 reflects faster income growth among low-income percentiles and the impacts of newly introduced redistributive policies. The paper also finds a considerable, ongoing poverty reduction in rural China. A poverty decomposition analysis indicates that this rural poverty reduction was mostly due to income growth rather than redistribution.     

Analysing post-apartheid poverty trends by geo-type, 1997–2012: The understated role of urbanisation and social grants

This article investigates poverty trends in post-apartheid South Africa with an explicit focus on differences between rural and urban areas. Using nationally representative household survey data from 1997–2012, I first describe changes in population characteristics and household access to different income sources and services, by urban–rural geo-type. Income data are then used to generate poverty statistics, which cast light on divergent trends in rural and urban areas. Next, I employ a poverty decomposition method to further explore some potential reasons why the poverty trends in rural and urban areas have differed. Data from the Afrobarometer are then used to probe how subjective non-monetary welfare has changed over time across geo-types. The evidence from all surveys suggests that the dramatic increase in access to services and social grants in rural areas has played a vital role in poverty reduction.     

Changing Sources of Household Income,Poverty, and Sectoral Inequality in Sri Lanka, 1990–2006

Comparing dynamic changes in household income and poverty among urban, rural, and estate sectors in Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2006, this study finds that a shift of household income away from farm to nonfarm sources is accompanied by a significant improvement in household income and reduction in poverty, particularly in the rural sector. Major contributing factors are the rise in returns to labor, in general, and educated labor, in particular, due to the development of the nonfarm labor market. Persistently low income among estate households can be explained primarily by the limited availability of nonfarm employment opportunities and the low education levels of working members.     

中国经济增长的减贫效果评估

本文采用Kakwani等人提出的测度方法--减贫经济增长率,定量分析了我国20世纪80年代以来经济增长对于城乡贫困的影响.结论显示,经济增长对高阶贫困指数的影响大于低阶贫困指数,表明反贫困成本(转移支付金额)相对于贫困人口而言,对经济增长更加敏感.同时,减贫经济增长率的波动幅度要明显高于实际收入增长率,这意味着贫困人口更易受宏观经济波动的冲击.因此,保持宏观经济的稳定以及改善收入分配、加强社会保障等有利于社会公正.     

城镇居民可支配收入的现状分析及对策——以1990年以来湖北省为例

1990年以来,湖北城镇居民的生活消费水平提高较快,但在居民收入构成、收入增长的基础以及收入差距等方面仍存在不容忽视的问题.文章从三个层面探讨了解决的对策.即创造就业机会,降低贫困;完善社会保障制度,将收入差距降到最低程度;转变政府外部经济职能,完善政府内部职能等.     

China's poverty statistics

China's official poverty statistics show a dramatic reduction in poverty from 31% of the rural population in 1978 to 3% in 2000. We evaluate possible sources of bias in these estimates and conclude that the official statistics underestimate rural poverty and overstate the speed of poverty reduction. Direct measures of nutritional outcomes support the contention that poverty is more widespread than suggested by official statistics. Priority should be given to constructing new statistics to accurately measure urban poverty. The method for calculating county income per capita, a key policy variable affecting official poor county designation, is ad hoc and subject to political influence.     

Decomposing Poverty Changes in Zambia: Growth,Inequality and Population Dynamics

Abstract: During the 1990s, the Zambian economy underwent major structural adjustments. This paper presents an application of a recently proposed poverty decomposition that attributes changes in poverty to income growth, changes in inequality and population dynamics. Our results confirm earlier findings that the existence of a severe urban bias in the economy effectively shielded large parts of the rural population from the economic slump caused by the structural adjustments. In addition, we find that the exodus from urban centres that followed the adjustments contributed significantly to the increase in national poverty. The latter finding highlights the importance of considering population movements when studying poverty, especially in situations where policy changes affect migrant labour, as was the case for the Zambian copper industry.