海南:南海资源开发基地

海南经济特区在我国发展全局上处于什么位置，应赋予什么样的功能和作用？至今缺乏明确统一的认识。结果， 国家缺少一种对海南一以贯之的发展方针和政策体系，海南缺乏一种矢志不渝的主攻目标及相应措施，本文认为，把海南定位为海南资源开发基地，既体现了海南对国家应尽的责任，也是实现海南超常发展的支撑点和激发因素。     

Asia's quest for inclusive growth revisited

Despite the rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Asia worsened during the last two decades. We focus on the determinants of growth inclusiveness and suggest options for reform. A cross-country empirical analysis suggests that fiscal redistribution, monetary policy aimed at macro stability, and structural reforms to stimulate trade, reduce unemployment and increase productivity are important determinants of inclusive growth. The main policy implication of our analysis is that there is still room to strengthen such policies in Asia to better achieve growth with shared prosperity. In particular, scenario simulations based on our results suggests that the effect of expanding fiscal redistribution on inclusive growth could be sizeable in emerging Asia, since the estimated improvement in our proxy of inclusive growth—a measure of growth in average income “corrected” for the equity impact—ranges from about 1% to about 8% points.     

Royal African Company Share Prices during the South Sea Bubble

Price bubbles provide a unique opportunity to test whether investors act rationally and have sufficient knowledge of the economic environment in which they trade. We focus our attention on the 1720 South Sea bubble episode as experienced by a company not involved in governmental debt financing—the Royal African Company. Following the example of the South Sea Company, the Royal African Company lent its funds to equityholders at a preferential rate. Recognizing this benefit along with the announced dividends explains a large portion of the bubble. Furthermore, the unexplained residual does not behave like an exploding bubble, casting doubt that speculative excess motivated market participants in 1720. Our findings are indeed consistent with investor rationality, and the unexplained residual suggests that we are missing information that was available to the British financial market in 1720.     

Postwar business cycles in Japan: A quest for the right explanation

This paper explores the nature of postwar business cycles in Japan. Our basic strategy is to study different production behaviors of various manufacturing industries over business cycles. We are particularly interested in the problems of whether only monetary shocks are important and, if not, what kind of real shocks are important. We conclude that purely monetary theory is inadequate, and that construction activities were major causes of aggregate fluctuations in the pre-first oil shock period of rapid growth. We also present some evidence suggesting that real business cycle theory is implausible.     

Myopic rationality in a Mania

The rationality of investors during asset price bubbles has been the subject of considerable debate. An analysis of the British Railway Mania, which occurred in the 1840s, suggests that investors may have been myopic, as their expectations were only accurate in the short-term, but they remained rational, as they acted in a utility maximising manner given their expectations. Investors successfully incorporated forecasts of short-term dividend changes into their valuations, but were unable to predict longer-term changes. When short-term growth is controlled for, it appears that the railways were priced consistently with the non-railways throughout the entire episode.     

南海资源开发与岛屿管理政策建议

近年来南海周边国家不仅加大对南海主权的声索,而且会同西方各大石油公司肆意开采南海海域的油气资源.目前我国南海资源开发和岛屿管理形势严峻,岛屿管辖范围小,油气资源开发相当滞后,综合管理力量薄弱,基础建设远不能满足供给需求.我们应加强两岸合作,鼓励民间资本加入,建立南海油气资源开发基地,实现南海资源的有效开发,有效管辖.     

Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment

We evaluate whether the Renminbi (RMB) is misaligned, relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference. A framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used. We find that, once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for, there is little statistical evidence that the RMB is undervalued, even though the usual regression point estimates indicate substantial misalignment. The result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods, as well as to the inclusion of control variables. We then update the results using the latest vintage of the data to demonstrate how fragile the results are. We find that whatever misalignment we detected in our previous work disappears in this data set.

南中国海次区域自由贸易区可行性探讨

随着亚洲区域经济合作浪潮的高涨,中国大陆港澳台(以下简称四地)区域经济合作作为其中重要组成部分,日益引起国际关注.四地实质上的相互密切经贸关系为四地实现某种形式的区域经济集团奠定了深厚的基础,但由于四地特殊的政治关系,使得四地经济一体化进程充满坎坷,台湾与祖国大陆甚至至今尚未实现经贸关系正常化.面对因不能深化经济整合而无法产生的政治经济利益,诸多专家学者和爱国人士提出了各种变通或过渡性方案,其中有关推动"南中国海次区域经济合作"的方案是提得最多和最重要的.这类方案形式多样,虽然在区域划分和内容设定上有所不同,但其共同实质是一样的,即在南中国海地区选择一定范围的行政区划(例如:粤港、闽台、粤港澳、闽粤港澳台、闽粤琼港澳台等等),组成某种形式(以契约方式固定)的经济合作体,实行不同于整个国家的独立经贸政策.这种次区域经济合作构想在过去有较多的带有理想化色彩的设计和提法,但近年来被基本锁定在"自由贸易区"的范畴之内.这种构想的目的在于:1.深化区内产业分工和经济合作,加速提升区域国际竞争力;2.整合中国最具经济实力的地区,应对世界经济一体化和亚洲区域经济合作;3.以次区域合作推动整个中国的区域经济一体化,最终达成国家统一.     

新形势下中国画教学模式改革刍议

中国画做为传统文化的精粹，千百年来形成了独具特色的艺术技巧，也形成了别具一格的教育模式。但随着时代的发展，中国画教学陷入了严重的困境，急需有识之士认真思索和探讨，寻求其可持续发展之路。     

Pitfalls in counterfactual analyses of policy rules

This analysis examines the validity of utilizing a subset of reduced form equations, such as from a VAR model, for the construction of counterfactual policy analyses. It is shown that the omission of one of the estimated reduced form (VAR) equations and the substitution of a counterfactual policy rule to complete the model severely limits the admissible structure of the economic model that could have generated the historical data.     

关于创建南海北部海洋经济强势区域的策略

面对21世纪海洋经济高速发展的历史机遇,中国已经将希望的目光投向了海洋经济领域,并寄希望于海洋经济的区域全面开发和产业可持续发展.其中,东起诏安湾、西至湛江市滘尾角的南海北部海洋经济区,在全国海洋区域经济开发中占有举足轻重的战略地位.     

Pitfalls in panel tests of purchasing power parity

Pitfalls in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity. —The results of panel unit root tests applied to real exchange rates as a test of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) diverge much. In particular, due to misspecifications there is little evidence of the convergence of real exchange rates for the German mark. This paper provides evidence of this issue by analyzing large panels of real exchange rates vis-à-vis the German mark and the dollar. In particular, the impact of the base country and various aspects of the dynamic specifications are analyzed. Overall, the results provide strong evidence in favour of PPP as a long-run relationship.