利率管制、金融扭曲与投资效率

本文认为我国存在正规与非正规的二元金融体系,二者的利率水平不同,央行的利率管制是导致这种金融扭曲的一个主要原因。通过构建两个部门、两种金融资本的经济模型,得出正规金融市场中利率水平的提高有助于改善这种扭曲的金融结构,减少非正规金融,并且提高投资效率的结论。我国1986年到2008年的时间序列模型和1995到2008年的省际面板数据模型证实了此观点,说明利率市场化是我国深化金融改革的必然选择。     

中国居民储蓄行为不确定性与外汇储备——在Ramsay模型下对中国经济失衡的微观分析

基于当前中国消费者具有不确定性预期和因缺乏成熟金融市场而存在着借贷约束等两大基本特征事实,本文通过构造一个缓冲存货模型,论证指出当本国的经济增长率小于一个特定的临界值时,居民储蓄率将与本国经济增长率呈正比例变动,而本国的外汇储备也会不断积累。这不仅解释了中国的"高储蓄之谜",也解释了其不断积累的外汇储备,从而为自20世纪90年代以来中国经济的内外部失衡提供了一个微观解释基础。据本文推测,在其他条件保持不变的情况下,如果中国经济继续保持7%的增长率,则外汇储备将有可能在2015年突破5万亿美元。据此,本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

Migrants’ Remittances and Financial Development: Macro‐ and Micro‐Level Evidence of a Perverse Relationship

Financial development is commonly identified as an important condition for fostering investment and economic growth. It is also believed that migrants’ remittances stimulate financial development in the receiving economy, contributing indirectly to economic growth. We explore the relationship between remittances and financial development using macro‐ and micro‐level data. From cross‐country panel data, we find evidence of a negative relationship between remittances and financial deepening in developing countries. Using household survey data from a study of migrants’ remittances in two CIS countries, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan, we also investigate the relationship between remittances, financial intermediation and ‘financial literacy’ among remittance‐receiving households. While we find some evidence of a positive, albeit weak, relationship for Kyrgyzstan, in Azerbaijan, the relatively more financially developed economy, we uncover a strong perverse relationship. Remittances appear to deter bank intermediation and use of formal banking services. Possible reasons are explored and areas for further investigation identified.     

经济成长、金融结构变革与证券公司的未来发展

进入21世纪以来,中国经济的快速增长对经济生活的方方面面都产生了深刻的影响,也为中国资本市场带来了新的历史转折期和重要机遇期。作为资本市场上金融服务主要提供者的证券公司,迎来了新的发展机遇。然而在中国,什么样的证券公司能在激烈的竞争中发展壮大?什么样的证券公司拥有未来?本文认为,有三点至关重要:第一,对中国经济未来发展趋势和特点要有系统分析;第二,对中国金融结构的演变规律和方向要有准确把握;第三,要具有自身独特的核心竞争力。本文对这三个方面的内容进行系统研究,并提出了一些见解。     

What Explains Cross‐country Industry Growth Patterns? Trade,Development and the Equity Financing Channel

We test theories that examine how economic and financial development affect cross‐country industry growth patterns. Finance theory suggests that financial development affects growth by lowering the cost of external finance. This has the implication that industries in more finance‐hungry sectors will grow faster in countries where financial markets are more developed. In addition, if financing constraints are lessened when stock market performance is high, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance should grow more rapidly following periods of good stock market performance. Trade and development theories, on the other hand, imply that a country's product‐mix and the pattern of industrial growth reflect which stage of development it is in and its factor endowments. Thus, one implication of trade/development theories is that countries that are close to each other in terms of GDP per capita should have similar patterns of industrial growth. Our tests find support for each of these theories.     

Financial Liberalisation and Growth in China’s Economic Reform

This paper summarises China’s financial liberalisation experience and examines the contributions of financial resources on economic growth during the post‐reform period. Financial liberalisation has resulted in the reallocation of the four sources of total investment in fixed assets: state budget appropriation, national bank loans, self‐raised funds, and foreign investment. We find that the growth of GDP and industrial production are positively related to the growth of self‐raised funds and foreign investment. We conclude that the use of foreign investment and funds raised by the enterprises themselves are more efficient than the government’s appropriation and provision of bank loans.     

基于金融发展视角下的FDI与经济增长研究综述

众多的决策者与学者相信外商直接投资（FDI）有利于促进东道国的经济增长。但是实证研究结果却表明,FDI的经济增长效应在许多发展中国家却并不明确,主要原因在于FDI效应受到东道国自身环境和条件（即吸收能力）的制约。东道国的金融发展主要通过人力资本效应、技术创新效应、产业关联效应以及市场环境优化效应等机制对FDI与经济增长的关系产生影响。金融发展已经成为东道国FDI效应有效发挥的核心要素。也是未来FDI研究的一个重要的新方向。     

江苏对外贸易与经济增长的实证研究

随着“一带一路”倡议的实施,对外贸易已成为影响经济增长的关键因素。江苏是全国经济发达省份,对外贸易增量迅速。本文以江苏为例,选取1992—2018年江苏相关数据,进行研究。结果表明:江苏进口和出口是经济增长的格兰杰原因,出口会促进经济增长,而进口会对经济增长产生一定的抑制作用。根据实证分析的结果,对如何促进江苏对外贸易发展与经济高质量发展提出建议。     

Ist die Ausbildung von Spitzenmathematikern wichtig für wirtschaftliches Wachstum?

We shed new light on the relative importance that schools’ ability to produce high achievers in math has for economic growth. Drawing on data from the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), the world championship in mathematics for high school students, we construct a measure for a country’s ability to produce high achievers in math. Results from cross-country growth regressions reveal a strong and significant relationship between economic growth and IMO performance that remains even if differences in average cognitive skills among countries are taken into account.     

Where does ESG pay? The role of national culture in moderating the relationship between ESG performance and financial performance

This study investigates the moderating role of a country’s culture as an external contingency factor in the relationship between a firm’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and financial performance. Using ESG performance data of 4978 firms from 48 countries for 17 years, we argue that the financial return from engaging in ESG varies depending on the countries’ cultural aspects because stakeholder evaluations and appreciations for a firm’s ESG performance differ across nations. We find that a country that espouses a culture of high individualism or masculinity tends to appreciate and reflect on this more explicitly, strengthening the relationship between a firm’s ESG performance and financial performance. Contrastingly, in a country with a culture of high power distance or uncertainty avoidance, firms’ ESG efforts are less likely to be associated with financial performance. Our findings have important implications for multinational enterprises facing various cultural environments when dealing with heterogeneous stakeholder demands across countries.     

新疆经济增长与金融支持的实证研究

经济增长与金融发展相互制约、相互促进。经济增长对金融发展起着决定性推动作用，而金融发展也反过来作用于经济增长，金融资源数量的多少及效率配置的高低制约着经济增长的快慢程度。以新疆的金融支持为研究对象，通过借助金融发展的衡量指标来验证新疆经济增长和金融支持之间的关系，并在此基础上建立影响经济增长的回归模型，实证分析结论表明新疆金融发展没有对经济增长起到显著的支持作用，其原因在于新疆金融发展难以有效积累资本以及投资效率低下。为此，应积极推进新疆金融体制改革，实行倾斜性金融政策，加大财政支持力度，调整产业结构，加快所有制结构改革。     

Investigating the impact of the technological environment on survival chances of employer entrepreneurs

Given the big employment losses in the current economic and financial crisis, not only the creation of new jobs is important for economic and social welfare, but also the conservation of existing jobs. In this respect, it is crucial that firms that employ personnel survive. In this article, we investigate the role of the technological environment in determining the survival chances of employer entrepreneurs, defined as owner-managers of firms that employ personnel. We estimate survival models to analyze durations as an employer entrepreneur, using micro-panel data from EU-15 countries drawn from the European Community Household Panel. As indicators for the technological environment, we use a country’s R&D expenditures, a country’s employment share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors, and a country’s number of patent applications to the European Patent Office. We find strong support for a positive relationship between these indicators of the technological environment in country j and year t and survival chances of employer entrepreneurs in that same country and year. Our analysis also suggests that a selection effect may be part of the explanation in the sense that in a more advanced technological environment, relatively more ‘high-quality’ individuals select into entrepreneurship.     

关于金融战的理解

“金融战”不仅指一个经济体对另一个经济体发动的金融制裁,还包括一个强大的国际金融资本突然对一个金融体系存在严重漏洞的主权国家或关税经济体发动的货币狙击。长期的金融战会引发一个国家的金融危机,摧毁其经济体系,使其经济发展陷入长时间停滞。回顾近几十年的历史,美国非常擅长通过金融战操纵全球经济,从而达成自己的战略目的,其常用的武器是金融制裁。为了在关键时刻能够顺利发动金融制裁,美国还准备了一系列法律依据。美国发动金融战的底气在于美元霸权、支付清算垄断与无可替代的发达金融市场。以美国曾经发动的金融战为样本,对金融战进行一些前瞻性的分析与研究是十分必要的。     

金融科技背景下香港产业发展路径研究

在世界金融科技发展的背景下,香港作为世界三大金融中心之一,要想实现行业升级,需要解决自身经济结构的不合理性。从香港目前的发展状况来看,将金融科技高度融入到现有的支柱产业是关键所在。本文从香港前几次的行业转型升级历程入手,指出了之前香港产业结构升级的特点,分析了在新兴金融科技背景下,香港再次进行经济转型的必要性及趋势,由此探究出香港由金融中心演变为金融科技中心需要进行区域间的经济协作、强化政府宏观调控、加强技术创新并引入新兴技术以及推动科技产业集群化的路径选择。     

“十二五”时期产业结构优化升级的财政政策选择

"十二五"时期是我国推进产业结构优化升级、实现经济发展方式转变的关键时期,财税政策作为一国政府调节产业结构的有效手段,在产业结构优化升级中扮演着重要角色。本文从分析国际金融危机之后全球产业深度调整,及绿色能源革命给我国产业发展带来的压力与动力入手,立足于我国产业结构现状与发展方向,分析美国、日本在产业结构调整升级中的政府作用,提出促进我国产业结构优化升级的税收制度改革措施与财政支出对策。     

Financial Sector Reforms in Developing Countries: The Indian Experience

This study is based on the premise that the success/failure of financial sector reforms depends heavily on country specific factors and makes an attempt to examine these factors in the Indian context. The financial sector reforms analysed in this paper include the deregulation of interest rates, increasing competition and foreign ownership, and the introduction of financial supervision. We argue that an economic rationale for a gradualist approach to financial reform is that it is stability enhancing. Furthermore, we suggest that India’s complex political economy has resulted in a gradual approach to reform, and this approach has been successful along the dimension of banking stability.     

Firm Heterogeneity,Origin of Ownership and Export Participation

This paper investigates the relationship between firm heterogeneity and a firm’s decision to export, using the annual survey of Thai manufacturing firms from 2001 to 2004. A significant contribution of this paper is that we are, for the first time, able to break down FDI by country of origin to observe whether the behaviour of MNEs differs by region of origin. We find that sunk entry costs and firm characteristics are important factors in explaining a firm’s decision to export. Another important determinant is the ownership structure of the firm, with foreign‐owned firms having a higher probability of exporting than domestically owned firms, although this differs across country of ownership with potentially important policy implications. Export platform FDI is used to explain the behaviour of foreign firms that invest in Thailand. Using three measures of total factor productivity, we also find that highly productive firms self‐select into the export market. The implication for governments of developing countries is the need to think carefully about how and to whom they target their inward FDI policies as a means of growth. The heterogeneous behaviour of multinationals from different nations means that policies targeting specific regions or countries may be preferable to general tax concessions or the implementation of special economic zones that are open to all.     

展望未来20年中国经济发展格局

全球经济陷入疲软"新常态",中国经济"风景这边独好"。即使外部环境不好,内部反周期刺激的空间很大,中国经济仍然可以维持较高的增长。扩大内需仍应以投资为主,解决消费比重过低的办法在于改善一次分配,而不能过度强调二次分配。中国将会成为全球最大的经济体和贸易体,人民币终有一天要变成国际储备货币。但目前加速人民币国际化会扰乱中国金融秩序,不利于中国经济增长。当前中国经济政策的主要目标仍然必须是创造有利环境,保持内部相对稳定,再维持20年或更长时间的快速增长。     

推动消费升级 引领经济发展——创新江苏消费经济发展新阶段

2018年9月,中共中央、国务院联合发布《关于完善促进消费体制机制,进一步激发居民消费潜力的若干意见》文件。文件根据习近平中国特色社会主义思想,认为“消费是最终需求,既是生产的最终目的和动力,也是人民对美好生活需要的直接体现。”对消费在国民经济中的重要作用进行了深入阐述,将扩大和升级消费放在战略高度来进行谋划和部署,为今后如何进一步发展国民消费指明了前进方向。改革开放以来,江苏省的消费与全国一样发生了巨大变化,但是我们也应看到,江苏消费虽然增长较快,但是与党和国家的要求还存在一定的差距,消费能力、消费意愿、消费供给消费三要素的发展不充分,在消费水平、消费规模和消费结构等方面还存在一定的问题,在满足人民日益增长的需要方面还需要继续努力。特别是在推动江苏经济发展上要发挥更大的作用,通过消费对经济的调节、引领、带动机制促进江苏经济创新发展。因此,我们要继续贯彻党和国家“两个一百年”、江苏率先小康的“强富美高”战略目标,采取得力措施来解决消费矛盾,激发居民消费潜力,通过消费升级使江苏消费和经济均上升到一个新阶段。     

Policy Imperatives for Boosting Global Growth and Prosperity

The IMF’s latest reading of the global economy shows once again a weakening baseline. Volatile financial markets and low commodity prices create fresh concerns about the health of the global economy. What is needed is a three-pronged approach through monetary and fiscal policies, as well as structural reforms to strengthen the baseline and guard against the risks. In addition, collective global action should play a supporting role in helping leverage individual country action. We need to avoid negative sum and zero sum economic policies. Now is the time to decisively support economic activity and put the global economy on a sounder footing. This requires some tough choices, with advanced economies in particular needing to step up to the plate. At the IMF, we will need to revisit how we can help strengthen and broaden our global precautionary financing instruments. We will also be taking another look at policies to address financial account risks, including macroprudential and capital flow management measures.