Quantitative Easing and Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market

The “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing” enacted immediately after the inauguration of Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda brought violent fluctuations in the prices of government bonds and deteriorated market liquidity. Does a central bank's government bond purchasing policy generally reduce market liquidity? Do conditions exist that can prevent such a decrease? This study analyzes how the Bank of Japan's purchasing policy changes influenced market liquidity. The results reveal that three specific policy changes contributed significantly to improving market liquidity: (i) increased purchasing frequency; (ii) a decrease in the purchase amount per auction; and (iii) reduced variability in the purchase amounts. These policy changes facilitated investors' purchase schedule expectations and helped reduce market uncertainty. The evidence supports the theory that the effect of government bond purchasing policy on market liquidity depends on the market's informational environment.     

Missing Links: Regional Reforms for Asia's Bond Markets

Recent empirical studies established that Australian multinational corporations (MNCs) have been unsuccessful in international markets and explained the reasons behind this lack of success. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on issues that flow from this recent empirical work. We develop propositions to stimulate further research into the economic consequences of international diversification in the Australian context. We also discuss the implications of the evidence for managers of MNCs and industry policy.     

Counter‐Credit‐Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market

In this paper, using China's risk‐free and corporate zero yields together with aggregate credit risk measures and various control variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter‐credit‐risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China's credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing mechanism latent in the fundamental of this market. We also find interesting results about relationships between corporate yield spreads and interest rates and risk premia and the stock index, and these results are somewhat attributed to this puzzle.     

Volatility Transmission in Asian Bond Markets: Tests of Portfolio Diversification

The 1997 Asian crisis illustrated the need to develop local bond markets to reduce vulnerabilities to future mismatches in currency and maturity. This article examines a regional initiative – the Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund – and tests the implications for portfolio diversification. Intra- and inter-regional transmission of bond market volatilities between Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea and from the United States and Japan is investigated. The results show that since Hong Kong and Singapore are highly integrated into global capital markets, the prospects of diversification of investment become undermined. The study provides evidence to assist policy makers in designing bond-index funds as a strategy for portfolio diversification to promote regional bond markets.     

On Risk and Return in Asia-Pacific Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates the recent performance of stocks of major industry groups in the Asia-Pacific region. The objective of the study is to guide international investors who are exploring the possibility of investing in this region but are unsure of which specific industries to invest in. Risk-adjusted stock returns (expressed in U.S. dollars) are calculated for each industry group and sub-group in the region. Based on stock performance, recommendations are made for inclusion of specific industries in an Asia-Pacific investment portfolio.     

Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Review

This article surveys and evaluates the current state of knowledge about producers' marketing strategies to manage price and revenue risk for farm commodities. The review highlights gaps between concepts and their implementation. Many well‐developed models of price behavior exist, but appropriate characterization and estimation of the probability distributions of commodity prices remain elusive. Hence, the preferred measure of price risk is ambiguous. Numerous models of optimal marketing portfolios for farmers have been specified, but their behavior appears to be inconsistent with most, if not all, of these models. In addition, some research suggests that farmers can earn speculative profits, which is inconsistent with notions of efficient markets. The conclusions discuss what academic research can and cannot accomplish in relation to assisting producers with risk‐management decisions. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:953–985, 2001     

Systematic Risk in Conventional and Islamic Equity Markets

We aim to compare the systematic risk in conventional and Islamic equity markets by introducing two dynamic risk measures. Accordingly, the level of the systematic risk in conventional markets is slightly higher than the risk in Islamic markets for most of the time. However, this difference is significant in less than 3% of the sample period. More importantly, there is no significant difference in the levels of systematic risk during the global financial crisis of 2008, suggesting that Islamic equities are not able to provide a lower market risk compared with their conventional counterparts in financial turbulent times.     

Hedging in Futures and Options Markets with Basis Risk

This paper analyzes the hedging decisions for firms facing price and basis risk. Two conditions assumed in most models on optimal hedging are relaxed. Hence, (i) the spot price is not necessarily linear in both the settlement price and the basis risk and (ii) futures contracts and options on futures at different strike prices are available. The design of the first‐best hedging instrument is first derived and then it is used to examine the optimal hedging strategy in futures and options markets. The role of options as useful hedging tools is highlighted from the shape of the first‐best solution. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:59–72, 2002     

Expected Future Budget Deficits and the Yield Curve

Because of important demographic forces pertaining to impending social security and Medicare entitlement expenditures, very large budget deficits will occur in the next two decades barring significant federal legislation pertaining to these entitlements and/or taxes. The recent flatness in the yield curve notwithstanding, in this paper, we provide evidence that each one percentage point increase in the expected future deficit/GDP ratio increases the spread between ten-year Treasury bond yields and 90-day Treasury bills by 20-50 basis points. Larger expected deficits raise long-term rates more than short-term yield. To avoid crowding out of investment expenditures and the associated adverse effect on future living standards, it is imperative that Congress soon address the problem of looming deficits. JEL Classification E43,H6     

我国存在最优政府规模曲线吗

本文运用格兰杰方法对我国1978-2004年政府支出与经济增长的因果关系进行检验,结果表明:经济增长是我国政府规模的格兰杰原因,但政府规模不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。这一结论说明我国并不存在最优政府规模曲线,但验证了瓦格纳定律,同时也为我国现阶段的财政政策取向提供了有益的参照。     

国债转贷政策下政府信用效应及其影响

1998年后,中央财政对国债资金实行转贷.表面上看,这似乎仅仅是国债资金运作方式的改变,但是,结合我国近8年的国债转贷资金投资实践做理论和实践上的深入分析,我们不难知道:国债转贷政策的实施,不仅引起政府信用资金的效益内涵的改变,同时还使政府信用资金的宏观政策内涵及其影响也发生了改变.     

对我国国债市场流动性的实证研究

本文从流动性的宽度和深度两个角度,对上海交易所和银行间债券市场的流动性进行量化分析,分析中使用一阶序列自协方差模拟估计有效价差(宽度),用换手率和Amivest流动性比率估计深度及宽度.经研究发现:两个市场的流动性具有结构性特征,不能简单比较,得出孰高孰低的结论;在回购交易品种中,银行间市场的7天回购流动性最佳,其价格可以作为基准利率;债券市场存在新券和旧券之间的流动性替代效应.     

社会效益债券:一个共享型政府法律制度创新

中央高度强调简政放权,建设共建共治共享的社会治理模式,使共享型政府建设有了思想支持。目前,我国以政府和社会资本合作为代表的共享型政府模式建设已开始实施,其中包括已经成功发行的两例社会效益债券项目,国内学者也开始强调从PPP到社会效益债券的转化,社会效益债券被认为能够作为共享型政府的一个法律制度创新。国内现有关于社会效益债劵的研究过于理论化、西方化,缺乏中国语境下的思考,作为共享型政府法律制度创新的社会效益债券需要立足中国实际进行制度设计。     

基于极值谱风险测度的金融市场风险度量

如何准确度量金融市场风险将是金融学研究的永恒话题.既考虑金融市场的实时波动,又关注投资者的风险态度,应是科学度量风险的方法.文章基于极值理论的POT模型,采用谱风险度量方法对上证综合指数、香港恒生指数和美国道琼斯指数进行了风险度量.实证结果表明,相对于忽视投资者风险态度的和值,考虑投资者风险厌恶态度的极值谱风险能够比较准确地度量金融市场的实际风险.     

Information Economics of Asian Bond Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Credit Agencies

ABSTRACT

This paper examines financial data and credit ratings of corporate bond issuers in East Asia. The empirical results suggest that the U.S.-based credit agency principally monitors issuers' creditworthiness as a determinant of corporate bond ratings. In contrast, local agencies focus on profitability and firm size. We consider that the similarities and differences in determinants originate from the following: (1) the business experience of agencies; and (2) the degree of development of each individual market.     

夜盘交易与商品期货隔夜风险

隔夜风险的防范和监控是投资者和监管部门关注的焦点,探索有效降低隔夜风险的方法具有现实意义。基于信息和投资者行为视角构建夜盘交易影响商品期货隔夜风险的理论模型,根据各品种成交量和投机度在实施夜盘交易前后的变化、结合各品种之间的关联度,在金属、农产品、黑色系以及化工品四类商品期货中选取10个具有代表性的品种对研究假说进行实证检验。研究结果表明夜盘交易可以降低商品期货的隔夜风险,期货市场的适度投机是该制度发挥作用的基石,但夜盘交易对商品期货隔夜风险的影响不存在时间效应,监管上应避免处于过度投机状态的期货品种实施夜盘交易。