REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Assessing household food insecurity experience in the context of deforestation in Cameroon

BackgroundIn forest areas, reconciling strategies to halt deforestation and concerns to improve sustainable food supply and access is a great challenge to development planners and forest managers. This paper gathered evidence on the relationship between deforestation and food insecurity. The study was executed in Cameroon’s forest areas which constitute 10% of the Congo basin forest - an area characterized by increasing deforestation and high levels of poverty and food insecurity (FIS). The objective was to understand the characteristics, prevalence and severity of household FIS as deforestation increases. The HFIAS 9-item questionnaire for measuring experience-based FIS was used for data collection and analysis.ResultsAt least one-third of households at all levels of deforestation were severely food insecure and more than half of the population suffered from moderate to severe FIS. Most (97%) households reported experiencing food scarcity due to lack of resources. Households in the least deforested zone were better off than those in moderate and most deforested zones by most of the FIS indicators, while differences between the moderately and the most deforested zones were less distinct. Overall, considering a range of food insecurity indicators, households in the most deforested zone were the worst off.ConclusionHousehold FIS deteriorates with increasing deforestation and despite the generally favourable environmental conditions for food production, FIS was still high. This finding has major implications for development practitioners, land use planning, food security and conservation initiatives.     

Food security and land use deforestation in northern Guatemala

Petén, Guatemala is a lowland tropical frontier that has experienced substantial in-migration and deforestation in recent decades. Efforts to curb deforestation in Petén must be based on a better understanding of farmer strategies and the factors that drive them. This paper outlines some key findings that emerged through a detailed study of these strategies and factors. In particular it discusses the important influence of food security concerns on household strategies, as well as farmers’ growing interest in agricultural intensification, mainly in response to the reduction in the area of forest land available for swidden agriculture. The types of intensification strategies being turned to vary considerably, both among communities/sub-regions, and among households, due to differences in factors that influence the economic feasibility of particular activities. Petén farmers are more concerned about conserving forest than is commonly recognized. However, their ability to reduce pressure on forested areas through adoption of more intensive practices is constrained by weak market conditions and prices, poor agricultural services, low levels of farmer organization, and poverty.     

US agriculture and the environment

Prospective increases in demand for US agricultural output suggest rising economic and environmental costs. Among environmental costs, those resulting from erosion appear most threatening. Policy alternatives for restraining the increase in erosion include limiting the growth of demand for crops, strengthening policies to induce farmers to adopt erosion control practices, and investing in research to develop higher yielding, less erosive technologies. Limiting exports faces severe domestic political difficulties and probably is not consistent with other US interests in foreign trade. And inducing wider farmer adoption of erosion control practices probably would prove expensive. This approach should not be abandoned, but it should be accompanied by a policy to develop new technologies.     

High rural population density Africa – What are the growth requirements and who participates?

A large and increasing proportion of agricultural growth in Africa must come from continuous gains in land productivity in areas of high population density and hence with already relatively high yields. What that requires is analogous to the green revolution in Asia. Several features differentiate the African situation. Those include greater diversity in cropping pattern including a historically larger and more widespread tropical commodity export sector. The physical infrastructure in rural Africa is far inferior to that of most Asian countries. While the greater diversity of agriculture calls for a larger and more diverse institutional structure the reality is that the research systems, the ancillary education systems to spread innovation and the rural financial systems are generally greatly inferior to those of Asia at the beginning of the green revolution. Ethiopia’s record of a steady six to seven percent growth for agriculture and nearly halving of rural poverty demonstrates that with the right policies and investments a very poor country starting with poor physical and institutional infrastructure can bring a major contribution from agriculture growth to increased GDP and reduced poverty. As in Asia, the bulk of accelerated agricultural growth will come from small commercial farmers. They have sufficient farm income to reach or exceed the poverty level. Those are farms with, depending on the country, as little as 0.75 hectares to a few tens of hectares of land. They comprise up to half the rural population and produce on the order of 70–80 percent of agricultural output. They are in general not poor. The poor have inadequate land to reach the poverty level, initially with much underemployment, and with substantial non-farm employment. The primary driver of poverty reduction is the small commercial farmer spending on the order of half of increased income on nontradable, employment intensive goods and services from the rural non-farm sector.     

Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different?

Since the seminal works of Malthus and Boserup, scientists have long debated the impact of population growth and land constraints on the wellbeing of rural people. Today these concerns are particularly relevant to Africa, with its rapid population growth, very small farms, and chronic food insecurity. In this paper we examine adaptation to falling land-labor ratios using a comprehensive theoretical framework in which households faced with binding land constraints can respond in three ways: intensifying agricultural production, diversifying out of agriculture, and reducing fertility rates. Using cross-country data and drawing upon the existing literature, we reach three conclusions. First, population density is associated with reduced fallows and more intensive use of land but not fertilizer use or irrigation, indicating major challenges in achieving sustainable intensification or agricultural productivity growth. Second, there is little evidence of successful non-farm diversification in response to land pressures in Africa from domestic or international income sources. Third, rural Africans in land constrained countries desire smaller families, but have thus far benefited little from family planning policies. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated multi-sectoral approach to sustainably reduce poverty in the region.     

Mapping natural resource-based poverty,with an application to rural Syria

This study presents advances in resource-based poverty mapping. It illustrates how agricultural income distribution maps can be generated at small pixel-level, providing an application of the approach in rural Syria. Census data on agriculture and population are disaggregated based on pixel-level agricultural productivity coefficients derived in a GIS environment. The approach, triangulated with survey results and compared with sub-national poverty maps, shows that the better-income areas of Syria are located in the irrigated and higher-rainfall areas, though lower-income pockets exist due to the presence of ecological and topographic factors or due to high population density. The method can be used for developing high-resolution, low cost maps for rapid detection of resource-driven poverty in low income countries where agriculture is a major source of rural income, and where poverty mapping is rarely undertaken due to the high costs involved.     

The impact of agricultural research on productivity and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

While it is widely recognized that agricultural research is a key driver of broad-based technological change in agriculture that benefits the poor in many different ways, little is known about its aggregate impacts on productivity growth and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural research within a simultaneous system of equations framework, this paper first demonstrates that agricultural research contributes significantly to productivity growth in SSA. Productivity growth is again shown to raise per capita incomes, with income increases finally having significant poverty-reducing effects. With an aggregate rate of return of 55%, the payoffs to agricultural research are also impressive. Agricultural research currently reduces the number of poor by 2.3 million or 0.8% annually. While the actual impacts are not large enough to more than offset the poverty-increasing effects of population growth and environmental degradation, the potential impacts of agricultural research are far greater. Apart from low research investments, SSA faces several constraints outside the research system that hinder realization of potential research benefits. The results show that doubling research investments in SSA would reduce poverty by 9% annually. However, this would not be realized without more efficient extension, credit, and input supply systems.     

Alleviating rural poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

This analysis of rural poverty and hunger in Africa discusses the intertemporal and cross-sectional dimensions of poverty as an aid to policies and programs to alleviate hunger. Since nutritional adequacy of diets varies according to season, seasonality is an important cause of poverty especially in countries with 1 major harvest. In agricultural communities the wet season brings on food shortages and high prices, requiring assistance programs to concentrate on alleviating hunger at this time of year. Drought places a similar demand on resources. People may be poorer in 1 section of a country than another if they have no access to the existing power system, depriving them of services and assistance. There are forgotten regions of Africa where people are poor due to physical isolation, increasing the risk of drought and impeding emergency relief. Production in these areas may be low because there are no consumer goods to buy with surplus. It is important to identify target groups for financial assistance which will change with time and environmental conditions.     

农业转移人口市民化与中小城市功能提升关系研究

有序推进农业转移人口市民化是我国科学推进新型城镇化、提高城镇化质量的重要任务,而中小城市是推进农业转移人口市民化的重要载体,但是由于我国中小城市功能不完善、综合承载能力不强、制度和政策缺失等原因,农业转移人口市民化的进程缓慢.在此背景下,文章分析了农业转移人口市民化与中小城市功能提升的相互关系,剖析了二者关系的现状特征,以及制约二者形成良性互动关系的深层次原因,针对推进农业转移人口市民化的需求条件和需求特征,提出了推动农业转移人口市民化与中小城市功能提升互动发展的对策措施.     

河北省县域企业污染治理模式设计

河北省县城污染物排放量主要由经济总量、产业结构、减排措施三方面因素决定,县域污染治理存在产业结构不合理、企业布局分散、技术落后、治污投入不足、基础工作薄弱等困难。因此,影响河北省县域企业环境污染治理模式的因素包括环境管理体系建设与监管力度、产业结构与污染治理技术水平、企业布局和环保投入。县域企业环境污染治理模式可分为“环境管理＋结构优化＋环保投入”模式、“进园集中＋技术进步＋环保投入”模式和“结构优化＋工业园区＋技术进步”模式。     

Methods, results and policy implications of poverty and food security mapping assessments

The importance of poverty reduction to the world development agenda has motivated greater interest in the geographic dimensions of poverty and food security. This special issue of Food Policy includes examples of poverty and food security mapping used to support policy development in agricultural and rural areas. The volume includes eight country case studies and one cross-country comparison that illustrate advances in our capacity to assess welfare over large areas and at detailed spatial resolutions. Poverty mapping facilitates assessments of the role of environmental factors on the broad spatial pattern of poverty and food security. Evaluating proximity and accessibility in welfare outcomes can improve our knowledge of poverty patterns and processes. Spatial statistics can enhance our understanding of geographic and neighbourhood effects on poverty and food security outcomes. The development of effective policies requires increased collaboration among stakeholders, researchers and policy makers in constructing and using poverty and food security maps.     

National policies within the CAP

Despite the existence of the Common Agricultural Policy within the EEC a considerable number of policies still remain under national control. Professor Britton reviews these, which include several commodities, most technical activities and land tenure policy, and the ‘grey areas’ which may become subject to Community control. He points to alternative policies which might reduce some of the tensions in the CAP and urges a more positive approach by national governments. Each government should ask if it would be willing for other governments to pursue the policies which it wishes to follow for its agricultural population.     

Food and environmental policies in Africa

Not only is Africa experiencing severe food production and nutrition problems, but environmental conditions, on which agricultural production ultimately depends, are deteriorating. A meeting of the African Ministers of Environment was held in Cairo last December, and an African solution to an African problem was put forth. The proposed program is examined in this paper. The usable extent of the pastoral area in the arid and semi-arid regions of Africa nas been reduced by 25% since 1968. At present only about 35% of the former area of slightly productive savannah is left. Africa's rich fishing grounds are being overfished and coastal regions are threatened by pollution. Africa's problems are linked with very high rates of population growth, rapid rates of urbanization, inappropriate development policies that have neglected the agricultural sector, and nonavailability of skilled manpower. The Cairo Program of African Cooperation included the following proposals: 8 continent-wide networks of institutions are to be established or strenghened in the fields of climatology, soils and fertilizers, water resources, energy, genetic resources, environmental monitoring, science and technology, and education and training; all available African skills and experience are to be applied to seek economically feasible, environmentally sound and socially acceptable solutions in certain regions; subregional cooperation is to be strenghened in terms of implementation of priority activities; 4 committees were established in areas of priority concerns; and a formula to provide US$32.5 million to finance the follow-up activities was approved.     

Structural transformation or elite land capture? The growth of “emergent” farmers in Zambia

Over the last decade, Zambia has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of medium-scale “emergent farms” cultivating 5–20 ha of land. This study analyzes the factors underpinning this growth. We find that the growth of emergent farmers in Zambia is primarily attributable to land acquisition by salaried urbanites and by relatively privileged rural individuals. We found little evidence to support the hypothesis that the rise of emergent farmers primarily represents a process of successful accumulation by farmers who began farming with less than 5 ha of land, a situation faced by more than 95% of farming households. We argue that these outcomes are the result of Zambia’s land administration and agricultural spending policies. Rising concentration of landholdings in Zambia raises serious questions about the potential of current agricultural growth to act as a vehicle for broad based economic growth and poverty reduction.     

城市化进程、环境规制与大气污染——基于STIRPAT模型的实证分析

本文基于STIRPAT模型，利用中国2001～2013年的省际面板数据实证分析了城市化进程、环境管制对大气污染的影响。结果表明，城市化是大气污染的重要影响因素，其中，人口城市化 对空气污染的影响比土地城市化更为直接；环境规制对工业污染减排的总体刺激效果不佳； 不同地区的大气污染受城市化、环境规制的影响存在差异性，东部地区表现的最为敏感，其 城市化和环境规制对大气污染均有显著的冲击作用，中部地区只有城市化与大气污染联系紧密，而西部地区无论城市化还是环境规制对大气污染的反应都极不敏感。     

Incentive policy in Chinese collective agriculture — a comment

In the May issue of FOOD POLICY, Gek-boo Ng presented an interesting analysis of incentive policies in the Chinese system of collective agriculture,¹ in order to assess their impact on agricultural development in the People's Republic of China. The topic is of extreme importance to other developing countries seeking to emulate China's success in eliminating rural poverty. Ng's paper is well documented and highly informative. However, due to the fragmentary nature of the available data, and to limitations in Ng's analytical framework, the analysis seems to provide only limited support for his general conclusion that the incentive policies he examines have played an important role in China's agricultural development. The conclusion may eventually be warranted, but at present it seems somewhat premature.     

中国工业污染防治的制度性缺陷及其纠正

“十五”期间，中国工业污染防治计划完成得并不理想，造成这一问题的主要原因在于，中国工业污染防治存在三大制度性缺陷，即成本一收益分析制度缺乏、科技创新政策与环境保护政策整合不足、激励型生态补偿制度不完善等，正是这三大制度缺陷，使得环境保护政策难以满足完美可执行性的条件．引致环境保护中的软约束现象的产生。环境政策完美可执行性条件得以满足的制度基础是“十一五”期间中国环境保护建设的最根本任务．“十一五”的环境保护目标能否实现很大程度上取决于这项任务能否完成．     

Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay

The 2006-2008 food price spike raised concerns about the impact of high commodity prices on poverty in developing countries. This paper addresses these concerns in relation to Uruguay, a small country that exports agricultural commodities and imports fuels. Applying a general equilibrium model, we find that, as a whole, an increase in commodity prices has a positive effect on the economy of Uruguay. Benefits obtained through a growth in export activities are partially outweighed by an increase in crude oil prices. In this context, extreme poverty increases. As in other countries, the increase in food prices affects the already poor population, who become even poorer. This fact highlights the need for policies that mitigate the negative effects of price shocks.