Aggregate convergence and sectoral specialization in innovation

Over the last 20 years OECD countries have converged in terms of their innovations, in parallel to the process of economic convergence and catching up in technology. However, this has not led to a similarity in the sectoral strengths of the majority of countries. Applying a measure of technological distance between pairs of countries based on patents, it is shown that nations have increased their technological specialization (i.e. their sectoral differences) over the 1980s. An apparent paradox is pointed out, as countries converge by becoming more different and grow by becoming more specialized.     

Monitoring the technological performance of a small economy using patent data: the case of denmark

The technological performance of the Danish economy is assessed using data on patenting. It is shown that small and medium-sized countries are more inclined to protect their innovations using patents taken out inforeign countries. Foreign patentjowsjom and to Denmark are considered, and a comparison with tradejows is attempted. The Danish economy has its sectoral strengths in technologies related to the agro-industrial complex and, more general, in areas linked to its specialization in international trade. The rate of growth ofpatent classes is finally considered to assess the vital of Danish technological perfomance. Patenting can be a vital instrument to gather information to design appropriate technology policies which may be crucial to strengthen the economic performance of small countries.     

The Cosine-Shaped Pattern of Innovations and Technological Advantages： Theory and Evidence

Using data from 24 OECD countries, we find that the relationship between a country＇s R＆D investment and technological advantage in a sector （measured by the country＇s labor productivity of the sector relative to the rest of the world） is non-monotonic. In particular, for countries whose technology levels are much lower or higher than the rest of the world in a sector, their sectoral R＆D investment declines as their advantages in the sector improve; for counties with middle technology levels, the opposite is true. Extending the Eaton and Kortum framework, we develop a static model to theoretically analyze the relationship between R＆D investment and technological advantages. We show that when the research efficiency in a sector is sufficiently elastic with respect to the sectoral technological advantage, a country＇s R＆D investment increases with its technological advantage, and vice versa.     

Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries

Due to underlying technological and organizational differences, industries differ in their need for external finance. Since services provided by the financial sector are largely immobile across countries, the pattern of industrial specialization should be influenced by the level of financial development. Among OECD countries we find a strong causal effect of the financial sector on industrial specialization. Further, the financial sector is a source of comparative advantage in a way consistent with the Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek model. Results are also presented on which aspects of financial systems are important for specialization and comparative advantage.     

Do export and technological specialisation patterns co-evolve in terms of convergence or divergence? Evidence from 19 OECD countries, 1971–1991

Several researchers looking at the development of international export specialisation patterns have shown that there is a weak tendency for OECD countries to exhibit decreased levels of specialisation. This finding is in contrast to findings made by other authors, who found increasing technological specialisation. The first aim of this paper is to investigate whether these contradictory findings are due to a `real world' phenomenon, or whether the explanation is purely technical, by comparing the development of export specialisation to specialisation in terms of US patents, using the same methodology and level of aggregation. The second aim is to analyse the extent to which countries and sectors display stable specialisation patterns over time, also both in terms of exports and in terms of technology. The paper confirms that the OECD countries tend in general to become less specialised in terms of exports. The evidence is less conclusive with regard to technological specialisation, as the results are mixed in the sense that just about half of the countries tend to exhibit increased levels of specialisation, while the other half tend to exhibit lower levels of specialisation. In terms of country and sectoral stability of specialisation patterns, it can be concluded that both trade specialisation and technological specialisation patterns are path-dependent. In comparison, however, trade specialisation patterns are more stable than are technological specialisation patterns.     

Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence

This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth.      

Globalization,rigidities and national specialization: a dynamic analysis

The paper extends the ‘dynamic’ economic geography technique to analyze the evolution of national specialization as trade costs decrease. As agglomeration economies arise, due to the decrease of trade costs, countries could benefit from specializing in one sector. Nevertheless, the sector of specialization, as well as the speed of relocation of factors towards this sector, depends crucially on the costs of relocating factors and on comparative advantages. Labor market rigidities and comparative advantages contribute to lock a country in its current specialization pattern slowing relocation of factors. The model is consistent with some stylized facts on specialization and labor market rigidities in OECD countries.     

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN COMPETITION ON SECTORAL GROWTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines the impact of competition on the total factor productivity (TFP) of 21 manufacturing sectors in eighteen OECD countries over the period of time 1990–2006. We assume that the source of TFP growth can be either domestic or foreign innovation or technology transfer from the technological frontier. Trade openness, R&D, and human capital can have two effects: a direct effect on TFP (e.g., through innovation) and an indirect effect depending on the productivity gap between a given country and the technological frontier. We find that tougher domestic competition is always associated with higher sectoral productivity. Both import and export penetrations are positively associated with an increase of TFP. However, the channels through which higher TFP is materialized are different: export penetration works through level effect, while import penetration acts mainly when conditional on the level of technological development. The economical magnitude of the effect is not trivial.     

Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth

This paper explores the link between trade structure, trade specialization and per capita income growth. It is argued that industrial upgrading in export specialization patterns has a positive long-run growth effect, while the effect of structural change in industrial import patterns is in principle ambiguous. A standard empirical growth model is augmented by various measures of structural change. The hypothesis that not trade per se matters, but that various types of trading activities impact differently on economic growth is tested on a sample of 45 countries (OECD members and selected Asian and Latin American countries) over the period 1981–1997. The data set comprises exports and imports for 35 manufacturing industries at the 3-digit level of the ISIC classification which are grouped according to skill intensity. The results of the dynamic panel estimation point towards a positive long-run growth effect arising from trade specialization in medium-high-skill-intensive industries. Further, important distinctions between the skill intensity of export and import patterns and their respective influence on economic development, as well as between the group of developing countries and OECD members are observed in this relationship.JEL classification: C23, F43, O19, O41, O57The author is grateful to Michael Landesmann and Robert Stehrer (wiiw), Neil Foster and Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Department of Economics, University of Vienna), Michael Peneder (Austrian Institute of Economic Research) and two referees for valuable comments. This research is based on Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 8954, financial support by Oesterreichische Nationalbank is gratefully acknowledged.     

Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital

We examine the contribution of human capital to economy-wide technological improvements through the two channels of innovation and imitation. We develop a theoretical model showing that skilled labor has a higher growth-enhancing effect closer to the technological frontier under the reasonable assumption that innovation is a relatively more skill-intensive activity than imitation. Also, we provide evidence in favor of this prediction using a panel dataset covering 19 OECD countries between 1960 and 2000 and explain why previous empirical research had found no positive relationship between initial schooling level and subsequent growth in rich countries.     

Why is TFP growth sectorally concentrated?

Research shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth is weak in European countries. This is inter alia attributed to the fact that substantial TFP growth is limited to a few industries. Because TFP growth is typically understood as technological progress, it is concluded that technology diffusion between sectors in Europe is hampered. We use EU KLEMS data sets to decompose sectoral TFP for nine European countries by means of a Malmquist approach in order to identify potential sources besides technical progress. Applying Harberger diagrams, we describe the sectoral distribution of TFP growth, efficiency gains and losses, economies of scale and technological progress. The analysis reveals that technological progress is quite evenly distributed across sectors in most European countries. The wide scattering of TFP growth is explained by deviating efficiency developments and the unused economies of scale. We conclude that the technology transfer between sectors in most European countries seems to work. Therefore, Europe in general does not need a new technology policy, but a further integration of the markets and a reduction of national market entry barriers. This requires further unification of pan-European standards in fields like trade and crafts codes or consumer protection policies.     

Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration

The specialization patterns of metropolitan areas are crucial in characterizing the effects of economic integration in Europe. This paper aims to provide and estimate an econometric model that explains both sectoral specialization and sectoral dissimilarity, measured with the GINI and the KRUGMAN indexes, respectively, for 35 European metro areas during the period 1980–2005. A semiparametric approach is proposed to address the issues of non-linearity and separability. The econometric analysis indicates how the deepening of the processes of development and integration occurred in the last decades affected both specialization and similarity of the sectoral metropolitan structure, finally supporting a “specializing alike hypothesis”.     

中国区域技术专业化与经济增长——基于专利数据的实证分析

基于专利数据构建技术专业化衡量指标,测度2001-2015年中国内地30个省域技术专业化系数,展现专业化模式的区域差异以及变动规律,并利用门限面板模型进一步考察不同类型技术专业化与区域经济增长之间的非线性关系。结果表明：中国省域技术分工系数总体呈现西高东低的区域特征,并出现先增后降的变化趋势;只有少数地区能在高新技术和高机会技术领域实现专业化,大部分地区仅在自身优势产业所对应的技术领域实现专业化;技术专业化与区域经济增长之间存在非线性关系,创新能力较低时,技术分工将促进经济增长,而当创新能力较高时,技术分工的作用不显著,且不同领域专业化会产生不同效果。     

Geographical concentration and the dynamics of countries' specialization in technologies

This paper examines the empirical dynamics of countries' technological specialization in six technology fields using distribution dynamics. In all technology fields innovation activities are performed by relatively few countries and the degree of concentration is fairly stable in time. Intra-distribution dynamics is characterized by persistence of within field countries' specialization levels around or below the mean, while high specialization levels revert towards lower values. This strengthens the case for absorptive capacity. Electronics show some distinctive properties: they have the highest degree of geographical concentration and numerous small countries among those specialized; they also are the least mobile technology field. In a Schumpeterian perspective, this is in line with "creative accumulation".     

国外ICT产业智慧专业化评价研究回顾与展望

自OECD提出智慧专业化战略以来，越来越多国家和地区将ICT产业作为优先发展事项，国外学者也随之重视ICT产业智慧专业化相关研究。国外学者先后提出企业家发现过程嵌入、三螺旋演化延伸、全球价值链技术升级及产业集群竞争优势等ICT产业智慧专业化理论，描述智慧增长、可持续增长、包容性增长3个方面的发展目标，概括出以案例分析为主的定性方法、以构建模型为主的定量方法等ICT产业智慧化评价方法，探讨ICT产业智慧专业化与城市文化建设、行业伙伴关系、发展问题识别3个方面的效用。最后，对智慧专业化视角下的ICT产业发展进行系统分类梳理，提出未来发展方向。     

Micro and macro dynamics: Industry life cycles,inter-sector coordination and aggregate growth

Technological change directly affects economic growth by exploiting and exploring technological opportunities, thus determining productivity growth and income. However, technological change also affects the composition of the economic system, which itself constitutes an important prerequisite for economic growth. The first aim of this paper is to show that the growing variety of the economic system, determined by the emergence of new products and services and leading to new industrial sectors, can allow the long term continuation of economic development, even when the employment creating capacity of individual sectors falls. The second aim is to illustrate the impact of micro variables on the meso-level, that is, on the sectoral composition of an economy, as well as on its macro-economic performance.      

AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

Total factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001–11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001–11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries.     

Determinants of Net Trade Flows in the OECD: New Evidence with Special Emphasis on the Former Communist Members

This study estimates an econometric panel-data model, in order to explore the capacity of some of the hypotheses formulated in recent dynamic models of trade and economic growth to explain the bilateral trade of OECD countries. The study suggests that the larger a country's endowment of both tangible and intangible (human and technological) capital in relation to that of its trade partners, the higher the export/import ratio of its bilateral trade. It also shows that direct investment enhances the export/import ratio with the host country. The former communist countries reflect only minor differences from the other OECD members.     

中国主权资产负债表及其风险评估(上)

本文基于国民资产负债表的理论框架,运用现有数据并通过必要的估算,初步编制了2000—2010年的中国主权资产负债表。结果显示,中国各年主权资产净额均为正值且呈上升趋势。这表明,中国政府拥有足够的主权资产来覆盖其主权负债。因此,在不短的时期内,中国发生主权债务危机的可能性极低。对总债务水平与全社会杠杆率(即总债务/GDP)的分析显示:中国的全社会杠杆率虽高于金砖国家,但远低于所有的发达经济体,总体上处在温和、可控的阶段。但是,近年来该杠杆率的提高速度很快,须引起关注。分部门的分析显示:企业负债率(占GDP比重)很高,构成中国资产负债表的显著特色。2010年,该负债率已逾100%,超过OECD国家90%的阈值,值得高度警惕。