Trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU

Europe has underperformed relative to its peers and to its own previous performance over the last two decades. That underperformance reflects a range of factors, from structural rigidities in labour and capital markets, to inappropriate macroeconomic policy. But one set of policy measures that could contribute to improved economic performance in the future is trade liberalisation and reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This article examines the benefits that could accrue to the UK, EU and global economies from the liberalisation of trade in goods and from the replacement of the current CAP with other, more productive forms of spending. It finds that the current barriers to trade in the EU, and the resources dedicated to the maintenance of the CAP, are set to cost the EU some 2% of GDP by 2015 if they remain in place. Moreover, this cost falls disproportionately on the poorer members of society.     

标准化与产业内贸易——基于中国机械行业的面板协整分析

本文通过对1992～2007年的机械行业中9个种类的面板数据进行实证检验,建立协整方程并对其进行误差修正,分析了我围机械行业中的标准存量与产业内贸易之间的关系。实证结果表明两者有着长期的均衡关系,机械行业中标准的使用会对该行业的产业内贸易水平产牛正的促进作用。标准的进入将在长期内改善我围的产业结构,促进产业内贸易发展。     

中美水产品产业内贸易实证分析

从1998年到2012年,中美双边水产品贸易快速发展。文章运用G-L指数,Bruelhart指数和Thom&McDowell水平、垂直产业内贸易指数,采用联合国贸易数据库(UN COMTRADE)的数据,对中美水产品产业内贸易进行实证分析。结果表明,中美水产品产业内贸易水平较低,贸易的增长主要来源于产业间贸易;从两国的产业内贸易结构看,垂直型产业内贸易占优势。因此,中美水产品产业内贸易的发展应从增加水产品贸易的差异化;推动水产品加工技术创新等方面着手。     

广东省机电产品产业内贸易的实证研究

本文基于2002～2009年的相关数据,运用G-L指数和Bruelhart指数分别从静态和动态角度分析了广东省机电产品的产业内贸易状况;同时,本文还将产品的TC指数与其G-L指数结合起来,对广东省不同种类机电产品的国际贸易竞争力和产业内贸易水平进行了综合分析。     

欧盟技术性贸易壁垒透析

欧盟凭借在科技、管理、环保等方面的优势制定并实施了大量的技术性贸易措施,本文重点分析介绍了欧盟以技术法规、技术标准、合格评定程序为主要内容的技术性贸易壁垒.     

Trade union recognition and the recession in the UK

Against a background of falling union density and the increased presence of non-union plants and firms in the UK, this paper reviews union attempts to obtain recognition in recent years. Particular attention is paid to the use of conciliation for this purpose, with the evidence indicating a considerable decline in union success.     

论产业内贸易的测量与我国产业内贸易的发展现状

产业内贸易可以分为水平产业内贸易和垂直产业内贸易。文章应用克鲁勃和洛德提出的GLIIT指数,对我国自1992年到2003年总产业内贸易、水平和垂直产业内贸易指数进行跨国家、跨行业的计算。文章中的行业划分主要依据联合国国际贸易标准分类的第三版(SITC,Rev.3)的划分。计算结果发现不论是跨国家还是跨行业产业内贸易,我国主要是垂直产业内贸易,平均占到总产业内贸易的70%以上;另外我国跨国家的产业内贸易总体有上升趋势,波动比较小,但跨行业产业内贸易波动比较大。     

中朝韩三国外贸运输现状及外贸综合运输体系需求分析

着眼于中朝韩间可能构建的综合运输体系,研究中-朝-韩间外贸货物的陆路运输需求意向.首先分别分析中韩、中朝间双边贸易的发展状况,研究他们之间外贸货物海上运输的供给和需求特征;其次,通过SP问卷调查的形式获取数据,并构建运输方式选择模型,然后预测中-朝-韩贸易中货主对运输方式及运输通道的选择行为;最后,指出中-朝-韩间的陆路运输通道开通的必要性.     

Mexican Maquiladoras and the North American Free Trade Area

The maquiladora program has been in existence for nearly three decades. Understanding the concept of maquiladoras, how they are established, their benefits and harms to the US., Mexico and to other countries and how they are impacted by the Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, are of utmost importance to international marketers and policy makers all over the world In this paper, the history, the present state and the future potential of the maquiladora program is discussed and the process of establishing a maguiladora is presented. Maquiladoras influence the process of Mexican-American-Canadian multilaleral invesanent and trade relationshin Even though the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) is expected to reduce their importance for American and Canadian companies, we argue here that maquiladoras will remain a significant part of the Mexican manufacturing sector and will continue to attract Pacific and European investments seeking inexpensive labor, oil and other basic resources, god manufacturing environment and significant consumers markets, all in one place. Maquiladuras may indeed change ownership but will remain a significant contributor to the economy of Mexico for years to come.     

中朝韩三国外贸运输现状及外贸综合运输体系需求分析

着眼于中朝韩间可能构建的综合运输体系,研究中-朝-韩间外贸货物的陆路运输需求意向。首先分别分析中韩、中朝间双边贸易的发展状况,研究他们之间外贸货物海上运输的供给和需求特征;其次,通过SP问卷调查的形式获取数据,并构建运输方式选择模型,然后预测中-朝-韩贸易中货主对运输方式及运输通道的选择行为;最后,指出中-朝-韩间的陆路运输通道开通的必要性。     

我国输欧消费品技术性贸易壁垒的新进展

2004～2009年,欧盟对华产品通报始终位居RAPEX系统首位。2009年,欧盟发布对华通报1993项,相比2008年增幅达7％。2009年,欧盟连续发布多项关于消费品和消费品中化学物质的安全指令,我国输欧消费品面临的技术性贸易壁垒形势愈加严峻。文章在统计和分析欧盟RAPEX对华产品通报新进展的基础上,围绕2009年欧盟新出台的法规与指令展开研究,综合分析了导致我国输欧消费品遭受技术性贸易壁垒的多方面因素,最后提出了应对策略与建议。     

南方共同市场的贸易创造和贸易转移效应

南方共同市场是世界上第一个完全由发展中国家组成的共同市场,其形成一体化组织后所得到的效果对其他一体化组织有着借鉴作用。本文在关税同盟理论的基础上,对南方共同市场的贸易创造和贸易转移效应做了较为具体的分析,以利用统计数据制作图表的方式进行较为直观的分析和说明。得出了南方共同市场成立后,产生了较为明显的贸易创造效应,而贸易转移效应并不显著,但其区域的贸易条件得到了明显的改善的结论。     

Productivity and Trade Orientation in UK Manufacturing*

We show that improvements in aggregate productivity in UK manufacturing during the first years after the implementation of the Euro, by the UK's main trading partners in Europe, are determined by both market share reallocation and within‐company productivity growth. Furthermore, we outline a structural methodology for estimating parameters of a production function linking the unobservable productivity to endogenous company‐level trade orientation, investment and exit decisions. This allows us to back out consistent and unbiased estimates of productivity dynamics by trade orientation of companies within four‐digit UK manufacturing industries using FAME data over the period 1994–2001. Our estimates of productivity dynamics indicate that improvements in aggregate productivity were mainly driven by market share reallocations away from inefficient and towards efficient exporting companies alongside productivity improvements within non‐exporting companies.     

Impact of EU exit on our UK industry forecasts

• We have lowered our forecast for UK economic growth following the vote to leave the EU on 23 June. GDP growth is now forecast at 1.1% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018, and the medium‐term outlook has also been nudged down. We have also lowered our forecast for all of the main industrial sectors, with the biggest reductions in the long‐term forecasts for construction and manufacturing, although the weak pound could provide some short‐term boost to the latter.
• Our baseline forecast assumes that the government triggers Article 50 by the end of this year and that the UK leaves the EU by end‐2018. We assume that the government draws a red line under the freedom of movement and thus loses access to the single market. Trade relations revert to WTO rules.
• A number of factors determine the relative impact on each sector. First, in the short term, heightened uncertainty will hit business confidence, causing firms to delay capital spending. Second, less favourable trade relations with the EU could see export‐oriented sectors migrate production away from the UK. Finally, restrictions on migration will reduce the potential size of the labour force.
• Consequently, investment‐oriented sectors such as construction and machinery have seen some of the largest downgrades. Moreover, transport equipment is heavily exported to Europe, so increased trade barriers could see some production move out of the UK. Meanwhile, labour shortages could weaken growth prospects in labour‐dependent sectors. In addition, the vote has created uncertainties around the long‐term viability of London as Europe's major financial centre.
• The outlook for more consumer‐focused sectors is less downbeat, although an uptick in inflation may erode household purchasing power in the near‐term, and the multipliers from lower economic activity are likely to permanently reduce household incomes in the long term relative to our last baseline

     

产业内贸易的技术进步效应研究——以我国高技术产业为例

本研究根据1996-2008年的相关数据,以我国高技术产业的产业内贸易和技术进步为研究对象,在对高技术产业的产业内贸易程度和技术进步率进行定性分析的基础上,采用Engle-Granger协整检验和回归等方法,对我国高技术产业产业内贸易对于技术进步的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,我国高技术产业的产业内贸易对我国技术进步具有一定的正面效应。因此,我们应该充分利用产业内贸易引发的技术外溢与技术扩散效应,不单纯的引进和模仿他国技术,而是自主开发和技术创新,提高我国高技术产业的技术含量,提升高技术产品各产业链的整体竞争力。     

Intra-industry structure and the response toward rivals

This paper is a study of the pricing behavior of airline monopolists toward potential entrant carriers from different strategic groups. The results suggest that formerly regulated carriers price lower when faced by potential entrants from the newly certified carrier group than they do when they face only potential entrants from their own group. These results are consistent with the heretofore-untested hypothesis from Caves and Porter (1977) and Porter (1979) that rivalry is greater across groups than within groups.     

欧盟贸易协定新进展及中欧经贸关系展望

近年来,欧盟根据国际经贸形势的变化,更加重视对外贸易协定的签订并取得了新的进展。欧盟与加拿大、日本、越南签署完成新的自由贸易协定,丰富了国际贸易中的条约实践。欧盟-日本经济伙伴关系协定大大提升了双方市场的开放程度,是对逆全球化风潮的有力回击;欧盟-加拿大全面经济贸易协定中规定的投资法院制度,是解决国际贸易争端的司法化尝试。欧盟签订的一系列新的对外贸易协定,给我国带来了一定影响。对此,应当采取针对性的措施维护我国的利益,同时继续推进中欧双边贸易协定的谈判。     

Trade union attitudes to job-sharing in Australia and some lessons for the UK

A number of variations in working arrangements have emerged in Australia in recent years; one of these has been job-sharing. Here the author reports the results of a survey into the attitudes of trade unions in Australia towards the practice.