A Labour win would be a roll of the dice for the economy

• ? “It depends”, the classic economist's answer, is apt in assessing the economic outcome of a Labour government. Looser fiscal policy and shifting income from capital to labour could be GDP positive. But a loss of faith in Labour's commitment to Bank of England independence could offset those gains in a mix of lost confidence, spiking interest rates and currency depreciation .
• ? We attach a 20% probability to a general election being held within the next year. The Government's precarious parliamentary position leaves it vulnerable to rebellions, particularly in passing Brexit‐related legislation. But the Fixed‐term Parliaments Act makes it difficult to force a new election, even if the Government is complicit.
• ? In the event of an election in the near term, Labour would require a significant swing in support to gain a majority. Opinion polls show little evidence of this happening, so we put the chances of a majority Labour government at no more than 10%. But the odds of either a Labour‐led coalition or minority government are around 50%.
• ? The consequences of Labour's plans for sterling are ambiguous. A looser fiscal stance should prompt the MPC to tighten monetary policy more aggressively, boosting the pound. But the Party's approach to the Bank could have the opposite effect. A rise in gilt yields is a safer prediction. But with more than half of the gilt stock held by the public sector and “captive” buyers, the scope for a major sell‐off is limited.
• ? The experience of the EU referendum suggests that a Labour victory is unlikely to cause a sudden collapse in confidence. But the drag on profitability from Labour's policies and an activist approach to foreign takeovers could cut FDI inflows, which may be bad for productivity, though it would imply a more competitive pound.
• ? Our modelling suggests that a looser fiscal stance could boost the level of GDP by 2% above our baseline view after three years, if Labour sustains market confidence. But in a “bad” Labour scenario, with central bank independence compromised, the hit to confidence, market rates and sterling would offset the gains from looser fiscal policy.

     

Does Austerity Work? Theory and Evidence

• A number of factors underpin the Coalition's fiscal strategy, the most important being the use of rules (for the structural current deficit and net debt) and the creation of a new “institution”, the OBR, to monitor it. According to the Chancellor, this combination would ensure the government's “credibility and avoid elevated sovereign default premia and foster sustainable recovery.” 1
• It is already clear that the limited degree of independence for the OBR is a major shortcoming but there is another, more serious, problem in the Treasury's belief that the deficit ratio can be reduced by making spending cuts as clear failures by the government to achieve its fiscal targets on the deficit have shown. Such a failure is consistent with the results of research over the last decade which gives strong support to the view that fiscal multipliers are much larger than unity.
• The length of the downturn, the repeated large failures to hit deficit reduction targets and now the source and nature of the recovery show that his plan is failing. The former was predictable from the evidence just noted. In turn, the recovery relies on the surge in consumer demand following the easing of credit conditions for house purchase and points to a switch to a “Plan B”. It also demonstrates that the Chancellor could have brought about recovery very much earlier had he stimulated demand on taking office not reducing it with his self‐imposed austerity measures. He could even have stimulated demand to a much more constructive long‐term effect by increasing public investment.

     

The relevance of reputation in the nonprofit sector: the moderating effect of socio-demographic characteristics

This paper extends prior research on the reputation of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) by investigating the moderating role of socio-demographic characteristics in forming NPO reputation and reputation's effects on donating and volunteering behavior. The findings offer new insights into the role an NPO's reputation plays and its effects on key outcomes such as willingness to donate and work as a voluntary member in specific subgroups. The results show that successful reputation management is specifically important for male, older, highly educated, and affluent respondents. Communicational measures aimed at strengthening an organization's social responsibility are particularly promising regarding triggering favorable donor behavior and voluntary support. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Productivity – your countries need you!

• Increased global productivity could boost real wages, consumption, fiscal positions and alleviate fears of secular stagnation. But will it? Puzzles relate to the longer term global slowdown and to some countries' recent productivity‐less recoveries in jobs. We assess various explanations including mismeasurement, secular stagnation, financial sector malfunction and increased labour market flexibility. Our baseline forecast is for a moderate pro‐cyclical recovery in productivity but we show how downside risks imply it could be anaemic.
• Sustained weak productivity is a secular issue. Eight years after 2007, median productivity growth in OECD economies is less than Japan's was eight years into its lost decade. Aspects of secular stagnation and balance sheet adjustment have contributed. Measurement error may have played a role over the longer term.
• Recent experience divides recoveries into “haves” and “have nots” in terms of productivity and employment. The UK may finally be emerging from a “productivity‐less” recovery in employment after 2011; Spain and the Netherlands have experienced jobless recoveries in productivity; others, such as Canada and Sweden, have experienced pro‐cyclical (typically weak) recoveries in productivity; Italy hardly got going in either direction.
• Most theories provide, at best, a limited explanation for recent weak productivity performance. These include data mis‐measurement, increased labour market flexibility, financial sector malfunction and supply side secular stagnation.
• On balance, we think that a modest productivity bounce‐back could be imminent, caused by some demand recovery, tighter labour markets in major economies, higher real wages and firms deciding to invest more in capital, which enhances productivity and points the global economy towards normality.
• We also illustrate how global risk scenarios could dampen recovery. Negative skews imply mean G7 productivity growth across the scenarios would be an anaemic 1.1% in 2016, 0.5 percentage points (pp) lower than the baseline.

     

Nostalgia and giving to charity: a conceptual framework for discussion and research

• Academic work involving nostalgia has shown it to evoke a basket of emotions. This paper proposes a conceptual model that links nostalgia to charitable giving. We argue that the nostalgia evoked by certain NPOs (not‐for‐profit organizations) is likely to have a bearing on both emotional and familial utility derived by the donor. This in turn is likely to drive the donor commitment to the NPO. Thus by evoking nostalgia, certain NPOs are likely to emotionally engage their current and potential donors, which could facilitate the creation of long‐term intimate relationships between them and their donors. However, the extent to which the NPO can evoke nostalgia is likely to depend upon the nostalgia proneness of the donor, the emotional importance of the past experiences evoked by the NPO, and the characteristics of the NPO such as the extent to which the NPO can alleviate the feelings of alienation, discontinuity, and the need for authenticity experienced by the donor. The paper provides a series of research propositions and proposes a research agenda.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How do corporate environmental policy and corporate reputation affect risk‐adjusted financial performance?

The current study aims to answer dual, related questions: Does corporate environmental policy affect corporate reputation, and does this link also influence risk‐adjusted profitability and company's risk? With a comprehensive framework involving analyses of each question, among a sample of firms traced by the Reputation Institute, this study reveals several notable results, after correcting for endogeneity biases. First, environmental engagement and green product innovation are both antecedents of corporate reputation. Second, corporate reputation has a positive impact on risk‐adjusted profitability and Z score indicator of financial distress risk. Thus, corporate environmental responsibility and green practices represent cospecialized assets that enhances an intangible asset, namely, corporate reputation. The latter influence constitutes a missing link between sustainable development and the firm's financial performance. Overall, environmental engagement and corporate reputation act as insurance‐like protections of firm competitiveness.     

Deciphering the UK's business investment performance

• ? Absent June 2016's Brexit vote, growth in business investment would have been much faster and the UK would be sharing in a global “investment boom”. Or so the Bank of England claims. But the reality is more complicated. What is striking is just how subdued investment growth has been across countries.
• ? Survey evidence presented by the Bank suggests that recent business investment growth has been less than a third of what might have been achieved absent Brexit. The UK has also been highlighted as an investment laggard among major economies.
• ? Headline investment growth has certainly been relatively weak since 2016. Uncertainty around future UK‐EU trading arrangements may have resulted in some investment being deferred or cancelled. And the Brexit‐related fall in sterling will have pushed up the cost of imported capital equipment, cutting demand.
• ? But a collapse in investment in the North Sea sector has had a significant effect on headline investment growth. On an excluding‐extraction basis, UK business investment rose at the same pace as the US (ex‐extraction) and faster than Japan in 2016 and 2017, while average annual growth rises from 1.0% to 2.4%.
• ? What is striking about the recent performance of business investment in the UK and other G7 members is how subdued growth has been across economies. Despite a favourable environment, no major advanced economy has seen investment rise at the type of rates that the Bank predicts the UK, but for Brexit, should be now enjoying.
• ? Sectoral shifts, the rise of intangible investment and the consequences of technooptimism offer some reasons as to why measured investment may have become less sensitive to economic upswings. These same factors suggest that 1990s‐style growth in private investment is unlikely in the UK (or elsewhere) even once Brexit uncertainty has cleared. Indeed, our own medium‐term forecasts see business investment growth across major economies continuing to run at a relatively subdued pace.

     

China‐commodity nexus at the heart of global upturn

• ? The China‐commodity nexus has been at the heart of the global upturn in trade and industry. It could directly and indirectly account for as much as 70% of the recovery since mid‐2016, based on our analysis. We think this nexus will continue to support world growth in the near term, but the global upturn is vulnerable to moderating Chinese growth and slippage in commodity prices.
• ? China has directly accounted for around a third of the upturn in world trade, similar to the contribution of G7 countries. But adding in indirect effects, China's influence is likely to have been much more significant. Stronger Chinese demand has contributed to an improvement in the trade performance of its Asian trading partners, commodity exporters and other advanced economies.
• ? Using a model simulation that introduces positive shocks to imports in “greater China” and to commodity prices (based on the scale we have seen since mid‐2016), our top‐end estimate for China's contribution to the upturn in world trade is around 70%.
• ? The simulation points to especially strong improvements in output and exports for economies such as South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and some commodity exporters. This broadly matches the pattern of performance seen over recent months, though commodity exporters' performance has been quite mixed.
• ? G7 investment growth is likely to have played only a modest role in the recent global upturn. But Japan is an exception, while upgrades to investment forecasts for South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have also been large.
• ? A 1% rise in commodity prices could raise commodity exporters' investment by 0.3–0.6%, based on our analysis. As a result, there could be additional improvement in commodity exporters' investment this year, supporting world growth. However, with our forecasts suggesting that commodity prices are set to slip further over the coming quarters, this boost could prove short‐lived.

     

Satisfaction,organizational commitment and future action in charity sport event volunteers

• Charity sport events (CSEs) are a key revenue source for nonprofit organizations (NPOs) with large numbers of volunteers needed for success and cost‐effectiveness. This study explored determinants of CSE volunteers' satisfaction, organizational commitment and intended future actions (CSE, other NPO activity/event volunteering, donating money). Relay for Life volunteers (N = 290) from one Australian state completed a cross‐sectional survey. Significant pathways were found from socializing/enjoyment (β = 0.17), fighting cancer (β = 0.29), financial support (β = 0.21) motives and social norm (β = 0.23) to satisfaction; 52% variance was explained. Age (β = ?0.09), survivorship (β = 0.09), region (β = 0.07), fundraising goal (β = 0.08), advocacy (β = 0.15), financial support (β = 0.25), social/enjoyment (β = 0.23) motives, social norm (β = 0.23) and satisfaction (β = 0.21) were linked with commitment; 63% variance was explained. Paths between satisfaction, commitment and intended future actions (CSE, NPO activity/event volunteering) were significant (βs = 0.17–0.43). Future targets to increase CSE volunteer satisfaction and commitment involve similar (social/enjoyment) and diverse (action‐oriented) motives, with satisfaction and commitment key contributors to future actions supporting NPOs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

     

The MPC is on the verge,but a hike would be a mistake

• ? In light of the MPC's recent signalling, we now think that November's meeting will deliver a 25 basis points rise in Bank Rate. But the case for tighter monetary policy is weak even by the Committee's own criteria. This article sets out six reasons why we think that the MPC is on the verge of making an error.
• ? A chorus of hawkish comments from MPC members suggests that the Committee's next meeting on 2 November will announce a rise in Bank Rate, a 10‐year first. Granted, the MPC has ‘cried wolf’ before. But this time around the rhetoric has been much stronger. And the Committee has set the bar for a hike very low. Moreover, with inflation likely to peak soon and then decline through 2018, November would offer a good opportunity, presentationally at least, to go for a hike.
• ? But caution should temper the Committee. The MPC cites “a continued erosion of slack and a gradual rise in underlying inflationary pressure ” in support of its view. However, while the unemployment rate has fallen below the Bank's ‘equilibrium’ estimate, the Bank has history in being compelled to progressively cut that estimate. With the jobless rate still well above post‐war lows and worker power cowed, joblessness could fall further without threatening inflation.
• ? Meanwhile, the rise in underlying inflationary pressure that should follow from diminishing slack is absent. The MPC's claim that pay growth is picking up is tenuous and conflicts with recent survey evidence from the Bank's own regional Agents. In any case, the idea that faster pay growth threatens higher inflation has surprisingly weak foundations.
• ? Admittedly, a small rate rise, in itself, would slow growth only modestly. But the message sent by such an action risks pushing the economy further into a low growth expectations trap. And the Bank has alternative tools for dealing with the adverse side‐effects of ultra‐low rates. A rate rise in November would be a mistake.

     

Why does firm reputation in human resource policies influence college students? The mechanisms underlying job pursuit intentions

Business periodicals, such as Fortune magazine, rank organizations in lists such as the “Best Companies to Work For,” providing applicants with information about firms' human resource practices, including pay, benefits, work‐life, and diversity practices. It is not clear what influence this reputational information about HR practices has on applicant interest in pursuing employment or, more important, why it does so. Given that firms invest substantial resources in HR practices to vie for positions on these lists, the current study sought to fill these gaps in the literature. In the 2 (compensation) × 2 (work‐family) × 2 (diversity) factorial design, 232 college students read about magazine rankings in which a firm's reputation in each HR practice was manipulated as ranking either high or low relative to competitors. We examined perceptions of organizational prestige, anticipated organizational support, and anticipated role performance as mechanisms that explain the influence of HR practice reputation on job pursuit intentions. Our results indicate that a firm's reputation in compensation, work‐family, and diversity efforts increase college students' intentions to pursue employment with a firm. They do so because college students perceive that the organization is prestigious, will be supportive, and will foster their job performance. Our results suggest that a strong employer brand derived from employee‐centered HR practices is important for recruiting college students. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

CSR and service quality in nonprofit organizations: the case of a performing arts association

• The relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and marketing performance has been widely investigated recently, but mostly in relation to for-profit companies. This paper highlights the importance of this topic for nonprofit organizations (NPOs). Focusing on an Italian NPO operating in the performing arts and entertainment industry, two empirical studies (a quantitative survey and a qualitative exploratory enquiry) prove the strategic relevance of CSR in nonprofit contexts. The results demonstrate that CSR can be considered an additional dimension of the customer perception of service quality in NPOs and reveal that customer perception of the social responsibility of the studied NPO is strongly linked to its institutional mission and to the modalities through which it pursues that mission.

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reports of the dollar's demise greatly exaggerated

• ? Speculation that the dollar could lose its status as the world's main reserve currency “sooner rather than later”ⁱ looks, in our view, wide of the mark. Across a range of international uses, the dollar accounts for 40–60% of transactions – a share that has been stable or even increasing in recent years. Potential rivals are far behind, especially the Chinese renminbi, which accounts for just 1–2% of transactions. As a result, the dollar's pre‐eminence looks unlikely to be seriously threatened for many years to come. The US's gains from the dollar's global role may also be more modest than often thought.
• ? The dollar's position is supported by factors including its widespread use as a trading and commodity‐pricing currency, the size and liquidity of US financial markets, and the continued lack of a credible rival. None of these is likely to be significantly eroded in the near term, even with some moves afoot to shift away from dollar payments in oil and other areas. Historical evidence suggests that a world of multiple reserve currencies is possible but also shows it can take decades for reserve currencies to lose their dominant status.

     

An exploratory analysis of the effect of the “buy it now” option on sellers' revenues in silent auctions

• This paper tests three competing hypotheses regarding the effect of a “buy it now” option in silent auctions: that the option has a positive, negative, or neutral effect on the seller's revenues. These hypotheses were tested on 4 years of data from a university art museum's silent auctions. The results indicate that the “buy it now” option has a significant negative effect on the seller's revenues. Possible explanation, implications, and limitations are discussed.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Supply surprise is a ‘nice’ reprise

• ? This year advanced economies have enjoyed a rare positive supply surprise: output is higher than expected and inflation is lower. The initial China‐related boost not only proved to be a great antidote to secularly weak global demand, but it has also engendered unexpected global momentum and a benign inflation response. As a result, 2016–17 resembles a mini‐reprise of the “nice” 1990s, a non‐inflationary, consistently expansionary decade.
• ? The global momentum has been propelled by a strong international trade multiplier. This has contributed to strength in several advanced economies, particularly the Eurozone. We expect global growth in 2018 to be bolstered by US fiscal stimulus as the impulse from China fades.
• ? It will remain “nice” in 2018, albeit in the context of weak secular trend growth. We expect the benign output‐inflation trade‐off to continue. Several of the factors that are underpinning low inflation and unemployment as well as weak wage growth are likely to be present for some time.

     

Not all trade wars are created equal

• ? When interpreting estimates of the economic impact of trade wars, the devil is in the detail. Our review of more than 30 institutions' trade war projections finds huge variation – much of which can be explained by differences in assumptions rather than differences in models' structures or specifications. Relative to estimates based on extreme financial or tariff assumptions, our main trade war scenario results are moderate and comparable with the IMF's latest analysis.
• ? In our baseline forecast, trade policy measures have a relatively limited overall impact on global growth. This is in line with recent experience: to date, direct effects from higher trade costs have been small, and policy action has acted to offset adverse impacts on confidence. But the risk of further escalation in US‐China trade tensions remains, even following the (fragile) Trump‐Xi truce agreed at the recent G20 summit.
• ? Our review finds that estimates of the impact of such an escalation range from negligible impacts to a deterioration in some countries’ economic conditions approaching that seen during the global financial crisis. Results in Oxford Economics’ “rising protectionism” scenario – from our latest Global Scenarios Service – are moderate in comparison.
• ? We also find that all estimates showing substantial economic effects from a trade war in our sample are predicated on extreme asset price or tariff moves. In some cases, tariffs are assumed to rise more than at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
• ? Such differences in assumptions can largely account for the divergence in trade war impact estimates. This is illustrated in our very low probability “full‐blown global trade war” scenario – incorporating severe tariff and financial assumptions more in line with institutions like the Bank of England – which generates a deterioration in economic conditions that broadly matches extreme estimates in our sample.

     

Do Family Firms Have Better Reputations Than Non‐Family Firms? An Integration of Socioemotional Wealth and Social Identity Theories

We draw from socioemotional wealth and social identity research to develop a theory on reputational differences among family and non‐family firms. We propose that family members identify more strongly with their family firm than non‐family members do with either a family or non‐family firm. Heightened identification motivates family members to pursue a favourable reputation because it allows them to feel good about themselves, thus contributing to their socioemotional wealth. We hypothesize that when the family's name is part of the firm's name, the firm's reputation is higher because family members are particularly motivated for their firm to have a better reputation. Family members also need organizational power to pursue a favourable reputation; thus, we hypothesize that the level of family ownership and family board presence should be associated with more favourable reputations. We find support for our theory in a sample of large firms from eight countries with disparate governance systems and cultures.     

Online privacy and security practices of the 100 largest US nonprofit organizations

• Although online consumer privacy has been an important issue in the commercial realm for more than a decade, nonprofit organizations (NPOs, or nonprofits, for short) have just begun to address the topic recently. No published scholarly research has examined the online information practices of the largest NPOs with regard to privacy and security issues. The absence of data leaves one unable to empirically gauge the extent of NPO compliance with the Federal Trade Commissions (FTCs) suggested information practices. Such an investigation would be useful not only to US nonprofits but also non‐US nonprofits that are reaching US donors via their web sites.
• This study examines the online information practices of The Nonprofit Times 100 web sites and compares their practices to that of their commercial counterparts. The NPO web sites were found to collect just as much, and in some cases even more, personally identifying information as the commercial sites. The NPO web sites were more likely to display a privacy disclosure and privacy seal. Of critical concern, and not assessed in the commercial samples, is that nearly all of the NPO sites post personally identifying information (of individuals who are not employees).
• The current study provides benchmarks useful for assessing security issues pertaining to the collection, use, and even posting of personal information for NPO web sites. It also proposes actions for improving online security and privacy with the hope of encouraging more discussion of these important issues within the NPO community.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recruitment,Training, and Career Concerns

We examine training and recruitment policies in a two‐period model that nests two forms of production, “routine” work where ability and effort are substitutes and “creative” work where they are complements. Alternative ways of improving average ability have opposite implications for agents' career concerns. Although teaching to the top (training complementary to ability) or identifying star performers increases agents' career concerns, teaching to the bottom has the opposite effect. The paper also makes more general comments relating to models of reputation.     

Engaging consumers in esthetic offerings: conceptualizing and developing a measure for arts engagement

• As the arts face a number of challenges, including changing audience tastes and inconsistent ticket purchasing behavior, there have been calls for innovative approaches to marketing. Experts in the field have suggested that “engaging experiences” in the arts be cultivated to aid in audience development efforts. However, in the literature, little attention has been devoted to defining what encompasses an “engaging experience” in the arts. This research addresses this gap by exploring the concept of “engagement in the arts” and developing a measurement tool, which accesses overall “arts engagement.” It applies emerging theories from the customer engagement and brand experience literatures to conceptualize “arts engagement.” In four studies, an arts engagement scale is tested for its validity, reliability, and its relationship with important outcomes in the consumption experience. Implications are discussed for marketing the arts as well as other consumption contexts that incorporate performance and artistic‐based elements, including service delivery and experiential marketing.

Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.