基于案例分析的项目风险管理——以武汉国家生物产业基地项目为例

文章以风险管理理论为基础,运用了财务风险评价指标体系,根据武汉国家生物产业基地项目的实际情况对其存在的风险进行了风险识别、风险评估并提出了相应的风险应对策略。这对降低该项目的风险发生概率及减少风险对项目造成的损失有着极大的作用。与此同时,鉴于我国现阶段的大部份建设项目在前期策划阶段风险管理不完善的情况,文章的研究对其它同行业的建设项目风险管理的应用有积极的借鉴意义。     

Categorizing risks in seven large projects—Which risks do the projects focus on?

In a hierarchy of project objectives, strategic objectives will often be principally different from the operational ones. Operational objectives concern the project outputs/results, and strategic objectives concern the project goal and purpose. In this study, risks are categorized as risks to operational, long‐term, or short‐term strategic objectives, and, by studying a dataset of some 1,450 risk elements that make up the risk registers of seven large projects, we examine how operational and strategic risks are distributed in the projects. The study strongly indicates that risks to a project's strategic objectives rarely occur in the project's risk registers, though project success and failure stories indicate their importance.     

地铁隧道盾构法施工安全风险管理研究

当前国内城市建设速度的持续增快,交通压力愈来愈高,为有效改善城市地铁交通状况,全国各地的地铁项目修建数量也随之增多.盾构法是地铁施工过程中较为常用的一种方式,因为所处的施工环境以及工艺技术都较为复杂,在施工期间存在许多危险因素,如果有关施工安全风险管控任务落实不到位,便较易产生安全风险.对此,本文重点探究了地铁隧道盾构...     

项目风险管理的实物期权方法

分析了基于概率方法依据的假设在项目风险管理中的不适用性,并从实务操作中的预算储备和阶段性决策等应对措施中获得实证解释。在此基础上,用实物期权方法拓展项目风险管理的思路。对各种实物期权进行了分类和讨论。     

Over prijsraming en prijsvorming op de bouwmarkt

The analysis deals with the ratio of actual to predicted prices of building projects for a big city in the Netherlands in the period 1946–1953. These forecasts had been made by the city's civil servants as a guide to building policy. It appears that the ratio of actual to predicted prices was of the order of 0.85 on the average, which implies a tendency to overestimate the actual prices to be paid. This ratio has an average which is closer to 1 for large projects than for small ones, and the standard deviation around the mean is smaller for large projects. Further more it appears that this standard deviation decreased systematically in the course of time.     

Using Single-Equation Models of Function-of-Functions Type in Sociological Research

This paper argues that single-equation explanatorymodels of many types of social phenomena should not be built in accordance with establishedsociological ways of thinking. In sociological research, the focus is often on the causal mechanisms behindphenomena, and it is often interesting to use models that show the hierarchical causal structure,that is, how influences are nested in the causal process. I propose such a model with a form that reflectsa two-step structure. According to this model, the dependent factor is a product of independentfactors that are linear functions of variables. The model, which should be used with the factor product inunexpanded form, can be assumed to have wide application. However, the models used insociological research and discussed in textbooks are generally very different. They do not have afunction-of-functions form, but take a form in which variables are directly entered. Furthermore,even if they take interaction into consideration, they are linear in an extended sense because they construeit as one or more terms that are products of single variables. In comparison with the proposed typeof model, these models are technically simpler. However, this paper argues that the proposed typeof model is superior in many contexts because it better reflects the causal process.     

Exploring the Relationship Between Rework Projects and Risk Indicators

When projects fail to adequately meet requirements, organizations are forced to either abandon the project or to initiate a new project to address the original project requirements. Because the organization already has experience with and exposure to many project details, it is possible that the second attempt to address the original requirements (a rework project) will create different challenges for the project team. The purpose of this study was to examine risk indicators for rework projects and to determine whether or not risk indicators were the same or different for rework projects. A risk indicator is a factor that has predictive power about the likelihood of a risk occurring in the course of a project's life cycle. The projects studied for this research were undertaken by a large engineering design organization. The results show that there are some important differences in the types of risk indicators experienced by project managers and project teams in rework projects. Specifically, the risks associated with project urgency, quality, and technological changes were more common in rework projects. By understanding and attending to these differences in rework project risks, project managers will be better equipped to successfully guide rework projects to completion.     

Modes of Interaction and Performance of Human Service Networks

Governments everywhere are engaged in self-conscious projects of administrative and managerial improvement. Scholars of public management thus confront a fascinating array of talk, conjectures, and facts on administrative and managerial change that can be assembled from myriad sources. There are as well stylized facts, stories, conjectures, and ideological glosses – these might be termed ‘theory substitutes’ – that may or may not be consistent with actual developments worldwide and which are provocative in their implications. Our goal as scholars of governance and management must be to penetrate appearances to ascertain whatever lessons and meanings might lie beneath. A variety of theoretical frameworks ranging from conceptual classifications to synoptic speculations to causal accounts of state building are available for this intellectual work.     

A multiobjective optimization model for project selection with probabilistic considerations

When faced with limited resources, project managers must determine which projects to fund at what levels from a pool of potential ones. This problem of project selection is inherently multiobjective since various factors, such as the available budget, the chance of success, and the efficient allocation of the project team, must be considered simultaneously. The uncertainty of the data at the time decisions are made further complicates project selection. In this paper, a multiobjective, integer-constrained optimization model with competing objectives for project selection is formulated using probability distributions to describe costs. The objectives correspond to important project criteria, such as: rank (value), managerial labor needed, and average cost. The subjective rank is determined via the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The model is applied to a data set from a US government agency that involves 84 separate projects. The results indicate improved budgetary efficiency compared to the actual project selection, thus supporting use of the model for public sector project selection. The model is unique since it integrates multiobjective optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process.     

A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression*

Graph‐theoretic methods of causal search based on the ideas of Pearl (2000), Spirtes et al. (2000), and others have been applied by a number of researchers to economic data, particularly by Swanson and Granger (1997) to the problem of finding a data‐based contemporaneous causal order for the structural vector autoregression, rather than, as is typically done, assuming a weakly justified Choleski order. Demiralp and Hoover (2003) provided Monte Carlo evidence that such methods were effective, provided that signal strengths were sufficiently high. Unfortunately, in applications to actual data, such Monte Carlo simulations are of limited value, as the causal structure of the true data‐generating process is necessarily unknown. In this paper, we present a bootstrap procedure that can be applied to actual data (i.e. without knowledge of the true causal structure). We show with an applied example and a simulation study that the procedure is an effective tool for assessing our confidence in causal orders identified by graph‐theoretic search algorithms.     

BOT项目前期的风险分析

BOT是英文Build-Operate-Transfer的缩写,译意为"建设—经营—移交",是民间资本参与国家基础设施建设的一种形式,尽管以BOT方式投资于东道国的基础设施建设对于项目参与各方在不同程度上是一项有利可图的商业经营活动,但是在每个BOT项目中,都是有若干可能发生的风险,而且BOT项目的风险远远超过一般投资项目的风险,所以对于每个BOT项目而言,项目前期的风险分析则显得尤为重要。     

EXPLORING THE NEED FOR A SHARED COGNITIVE MAP

This article reports on an experiment that was undertaken to elicit the shared perceptions of a group of individuals in relation to a particular organizational domain. These shared perceptions were termed collective beliefs, and were to be modelled in the form of a causal cognitive map. An initial conceptual framework was presented in which it was posited that groups of individuals who work closely together share a set of common beliefs which enable them to function successfully as a group. These shared beliefs are an integral part of the group's cultural identity. Collective beliefs were defined as those beliefs which are a function of the group, encompassing more than those beliefs that are shared by the individuals within the group. Following the experiment it was proposed that it is not necessary for members of a group to have a complete set of shared beliefs in order to function as a decision-making group. In the new model, collective cognitions are described as merely transitory phenomena, changing in response to circumstances. The reforming of such phenomena over time results in the formation of shared belief systems. This framework was supported by the literature.     

高校建设项目跟踪审计的主要控制点分析

根据高校建设项目的特点,结合笔者的实际工作经验,分析了高校建设项目的各个环节的跟踪审计主要控制点,提出了对应的关键审计内容和审计要点,通过实际实施表明,达到了提高建设工程项目管理质量,实现有效控制投资、降低工程风险的目的,为高校建设项目的全过程跟踪审计提供借鉴与参考。     

低放固体废物处置场项目基本预备费估算研究——基于蒙特卡罗模拟法

目前我国对于核设施退役与放射性废物治理相关项目的需求日益增长,为确定现有规定中的各设计阶段的基本预备费费率是否能满足工程实际需求,本文针对低放固体废物处置场项目使用CRYSTAL BALL软件进行蒙特卡罗模拟,对工程的基本预备费进行计算。本文通过对两种方案分别进行Beta-PERT分布和正态分布模拟,得到不同置信区间下的基本预备费费用和费率并进行验证,得出基本预备费费率基本目前项目的实际情况,验证了蒙特卡罗模拟方法在低放固体废物处置场可行性研究阶段基本预备费的估算具有可行性,有良好的应用和推广价值。     

浅谈工程项目招投标阶段的风险识别与防范

随着我国经济的快速发展,国家越来越重视工程项目招投标阶段的风险识别与防范工作。为了进一步提升该阶段的风险防范水平,需要根据实际情况了解该阶段存在的部分风险,厘清该环节需要完成的工作,明确其中存在的风险因素以及管理标准,为项目的后期建设提供前提条件。因此,论文主要针对工程项目招投标阶段的风险识别与防范进行分析,并提出合理化建议。     

PPP项目风险因素和承担机制研究

PPP项目成功的风险承担机制,使公共部门在PPP项目建设的前期建立更行之有效的风险承担框架.     

浅谈土地储备项目贷款风险及其对策

目前,项目贷款融资模式是我国土地储备项目的主要融资方式。而我国商业银行对土地储备项目贷款的风险防范意识较为淡漠,风险管理水平也十分有限,对土地储备项目贷款风险的控制主要还是事后控制,没有将土地储备项目贷款风险作为一个整体对象加以预防和控制。因此,本文在分析土地储备项目贷款中各种风险的基础上,提出了可操作的对策方法与途径,可以提高银行土地储备项目贷款管理水平,促进土地市场和金融市场稳定发展。     

建筑工程项目风险识别与防控措施分析

本文对建筑工程建设工程项目风险识别方式及相关防控措施进行分析研究,根据建筑工程建设工程项目所面临的风险的特征,结合我国建筑市场现状,提出一些在我国实行建设项目风险控制与管理策略,以使我国建筑业进入良性循环。     

基于AHP分析的高速公路施工项目资金风险研究

文章采用定量和定性相结合的方法,进行高速公路施工项目资金风险研究。对施工项目资金风险进行分类,在此基础上进行风险识别和评估,运用AHP方法,采用具体案例分析,对资金风险进行预警管理,检验高速公路施工项目资金风险管理方法的有效性。     

船企科研项目动态风险管理研究

船企科研项目是以高新技术船舶领域为研究对象的应用研究类国家项目,是一项庞大的系统工程。在实施过程中,其受到各种因素影响进而不能实现既定目标。为了实现对此类项目的风险管控,确保项目目标的顺利完成,论文构建了基于霍尔维度分解的风险管理四维模型,对不同维度进行有效分析。论文运用PDCA循环法对船企科研项目进行动态风险管理,核心方式是通过时间维度、要素维度、流程维度、知识维度进行全要素、全过程、全系统的动态风险管理,以保证项目各个阶段的目标依次实现。论文的意义在于为船企科研项目的动态风险管理提供有效参考。