Asset pricing under information with stochastic volatility

Based on a general specification of the asset specific pricing kernel, we develop a pricing model using an information process with stochastic volatility. We derive analytical asset and option pricing formulas. The asset prices in this rational expectations model exhibit crash-like, strong downward movements. The resulting option pricing formula is consistent with the strong negative skewness and high levels of kurtosis observed in empirical studies. Furthermore, we determine credit spreads in a simple structural model.      

Arbitrage pricing,transaction costs and taxation of capital gains: A study of government bonds with the same maturity date

This paper examines one of the few cases of seemingly redundant securities: sets of three government bonds with the same maturity date. Within the bounds on relative bond prices established by tax-exempt investors in a market with proportional transaction costs, the taxation of capital gains on the basis of realization has a significant impact on relative prices. The empirical evidence supports the tax option effect discussed by Constantinides and Ingersoll, but does not generally support the segmented tax-clientele equilibrium discussed by Schaefer.     

Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities

We derive the optimal investment policy of a risk-averse investorin a market where there is a textbook arbitrage opportunity,but where liabilities must be secured by collateral. We findthat it is often optimal to underinvest in the arbitrage bytaking a smaller position than collateral constraints allow.Even when the optimal policy is followed, the arbitrage portfoliotypically experiences losses before the final convergence date.In fact, its initial performance may be indistinguishable fromthat of a conventional portfolio with a poor track record. Theseresults have important implications for the role of arbitrageursin financial markets.     

Arbitrage Chains

A privately informed trader will engage in costly arbitrage, that is, trade on his knowledge that the price of an asset is different from the fundamental value if: (1) his order does not move the price immediately to reflect the information; and (2) he can hold the asset until the date when the information is reflected in the price. We study a general equilibrium model in which all agents optimize. In each period, there may be a trader with a limited horizon who has private information about a distant event. Whether he acts on his information, and whether subsequent informed traders act, is shown to depend on the possibility of a sequence or chain of future informed traders spanning the event date. An arbitrageur who receives good news will buy only if it is likely that, at the end of his trading horizon, a subsequent arbitrageur's buying will have pushed up the expected price. We show that limited trading horizons result in inefficient prices, because informed traders do not act on their information until the event date is sufficiently close. We also show that limited horizons can arise because of the cost-carry associated with holding an arbitrage portfolio over an extended period of time.     

The pricing of retail deposits: Concentration and information

The traditional structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis relates concentration and the mean level of prices but ignores the dispersion of prices around their mean levels. This paper tests two hypotheses which are capable of explaining both the mean and the dispersion of elements in the pricing vector of retail banks—a concentration/collusion-based hypothesis and an asymmetric information-based hypothesis. Evidence is found that the dispersion of bank fees across banks may be due to both market structure and information reasons. The level of bank fees appears to be generally insignificantly related to concentration.     

Risk Arbitrage in Takeovers

This article studies the role of risk arbitrageurs in takeoversand the source of their advantage. We show how the presenceof arbitrageurs affects the value of the target shares, sincearbitrageurs are more likely to tender. Therefore an arbitrageurhas the informational advantage of knowing he bought shares.In equilibrium, the number of arbitrageurs buying shares andthe price they pay are determined endogenously. We also presentseveral empirical implications, including the relationship amongtrading volume, takeover premium, liquidity of the shares, andthe number of risk arbitrageurs investing in one particulardeal.     

Asymmetric information,adverse selection,and the pricing of CMBS

We demonstrate that asymmetric information between sellers (loan originators) and purchasers (investors and securities issuers) of commercial mortgages gives rise to a standard lemons problem, whereby portfolio lenders use private information to liquidate lower quality loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) markets. Conduit lenders, who originate loans for direct sale into securitization markets, mitigate problems of asymmetric information and adverse selection in loan sales. Our theory provides an explanation for the pricing puzzle observed in CMBS markets, whereby conduit CMBS loans are priced higher than portfolio loans, despite widespread belief that conduit loans are originated at lower quality. Consistent with theoretical predictions of a lemons discount, our empirical analysis of 141 CMBS deals and 16,760 CMBS loans shows that, after controlling for observable determinants of loan pricing, conduit loans enjoyed a 34 basis points pricing advantage over portfolio loans in the CMBS market.     

Belief updating, debt pricing and financial decisions under asymmetric information

This paper studies debt holders’ belief updating, valuation of corporate debt, and equity owners’ financing decisions during financial distress under asymmetric information. This is done within a continuous-time framework, where the relevant state variable is assumed to follow an Arithmetic Brownian motion (ABM). ABM can take negative values and has very realistic feature compared with Geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Using Chapter 11 of U.S. Bankruptcy Code as a costly screening device, we can characterize which firm will choose private workouts (in the form of strategic debt service) and which will choose to file for the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy procedure (in the form of debt-equity swap) when the firm is in financial distress. Using arguments similar to equilibrium refinements, we give a clear picture of how debt holders’ beliefs about the firm’s types are updated according to the state variable and the firm’s default behavior, and describe optimal strategies of both parties under those beliefs. We also provide an approximate solution to the debt pricing problem under asymmetric information.     

个人信用信息在保险产品定价中的应用

在欧美国家,个人信用体系已经非常健全,个人信用记录和评分的应用已经深入到了社会中的各个层面。在国际大型财产险企业中,有90%的公司在定价和承保决策中不同程度地使用了客户的信用信息。保险公司的有关研究发现,个人信用的好坏与个人的风险是正相关的。信用评级较低的司机的理赔率比评级高的要高40%。通过在车险定价模型中考虑个人信用     

个人信用信息生保险产品定价中的应用

在欧美国家，个人信用体系已经非常健全，个人信用记录和评分的应用已经深入到了社会中的各个层面。在国际大型财产险企业中，有90％的公司在定价和承保决策中不同程度地使用了客户的信用信息。[第一段]     

Asset pricing with partial-moments

I bridge the current pricing kernel framework with the early partial-moment pricing models of the beta framework, thereby reconciling and clarifying these bodies of literature. I argue for the inclusion of powers of min and max functions within a generalized kernel, and form a generalized beta model. Polynomial kernels and the kernel underpinning the partial-moment analogue of the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM are nested. I derive the partial-moment analogue to the Black CAPM, thus completing a theoretical parallelism, and compare the kernel-implied and canonical risk-neutral probabilities. A new model involving both lower and upper partial-moments, accommodating various kernel shapes present in the literature, is developed in the context of preference regularity conditions.     

Private information and incentives: Implications for mortgage contract terms and pricing

We examine the linkage in equilibrium among (1) contract design; (2) expected prepayment and default likelihoods; and (3) the pricing of mortgage contracts by focusing upon the effects of the borrower's private information at the time of contracting. We examine the implications of these perspectives upon the empirical analysis of prepayment behavior and use the framework to examine the predominance of long-term mortgage contracts in the United States. We consider examples that explore the trade-offs between fixed and adjustable rate instruments, assumable and due-on-sale loans, and contract interest rates and initial discounts (points).     

Estimation employing a priori information within mass appraisal and hedonic pricing models

Both statistical appraisal and hedonic pricing models decompose houses into a set of individual characteristics. Regression estimates yield the contribution of each characteristic to total value. Unfortunately, straightforward application of OLS may produce untenable results such as implausible coefficient magnitudes or incorrect signs. Often the suspected cause is multicollinearity. This article examines the effect on estimation efficiency of differing levels of multicollinearity, R², and a priori information in the form of sub-market cost data, by comparing inequality restricted least squares (IRLS) with OLS in a series of Monte Carlo experiments. The IRLS procedure investigated here hybridizes the statistical market approach implemented by OLS, and the more traditional cost approach. The experiments show dramatic gains in estimation efficiency from exploiting a priori information through IRLS.     

人民币跨境套利交易研究:套利机制、实现渠道与正面效应

自人民币跨境使用启动以来,有关套利活动的争议骤起.本文在对人民币跨境套利机制、渠道及其影响进行理论剖析的基础上,指出人民币跨境套利活动固有其弊,但同样存在着积极的正面制度效应.人民币跨境套利活动以服务实体经济为前提,为人民币资本项目加快开放作出了探索;强化了市场发现价格机制的作用,为加快汇率和利率市场化改革提供了新的实现方式;推动了人民币离岸市场的发展,扩大了金融市场的广度和深度.因此,应在加强监控的基础上,以跨境人民币投融资业务为突破口,带动相关改革加快步伐,减少市场套利的土壤,降低境外持币者的套利动机.     

Statistical Arbitrage and Securities Prices

This article introduces the concept of a statistical arbitrageopportunity (SAO). In a finite-horizon economy, a SAO is a zero-costtrading strategy for which (i) the expected payoff is positive,and (ii) the conditional expected payoff in each final stateof the economy is nonnegative. Unlike a pure arbitrage opportunity,a SAO can have negative payoffs provided that the average payoffin each final state is nonnegative. If the pricing kernel inthe economy is path independent, then no SAOs can exist. Furthermore,ruling out SAOs imposes a novel martingale-type restrictionon the dynamics of securities prices. The important propertiesof the restriction are that it (1) is model-free, in the sensethat it requires no parametric assumptions about the true equilibriummodel, (2) can be tested in samples affected by selection biases,such as the peso problem, and (3) continues to hold when investors'beliefs are mistaken. The article argues that one can use thenew restriction to empirically resolve the joint hypothesisproblem present in the traditional tests of the efficient markethypothesis.     

Asset pricing with unforeseen contingencies

We investigate an economy of heterogeneous agents that cannot specify all exogenous welfare-relevant events and consequently view the impact of unforeseen contingencies as utility shocks. In this setting we characterize an appropriate market equilibrium concept when securities can trade only on demand- and price-contingent events. We establish the existence of an equilibrium for a class of parametric models in which aggregating taste shocks across agents can lead to nonconsumption pricing factors. To fit the stylized facts, (i) non consumption factors must dominate the pricing kernel and contribute to the variation of the wealth-consumption ratio, (ii) markets must be incomplete and the set of claims that are traded endogenously determined, (iii) agents’ preferences with respect to unforeseen contingencies must be non-expected utility, and, (iv) although non-consumption pricing factors can be conditionally uncorrelated with aggregate consumption shocks, they must be correlated with shocks to expected consumption growth.     

Intertemporal asset pricing with bitcoin

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper develops and tests an intertemporal regime-switching asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous agents that have different...     

Asset pricing models with errors-in-variables

This paper revisits Fama and French [Fama, Eugene F., French, Kenneth R., (1993) Common risk factors in the returns on stock and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics 33 (1), 3–56] and Carhart [Carhart, Mark M., 1997. On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance 52 (1), 57–82] multifactor model taking into account the possibility of errors-in-variables. In their well known paper, Fama and French [Fama, Eugene F., French, Kenneth R., 1997. Industry costs of equity. Journal of Financial Economic 43 (2), 153–193] concluded that estimates of the cost of equity for the three-factor model of FF (1993) were imprecise. We argue that this imprecision is even more severe because of the pervasive effects of measurement errors. We propose Dagenais and Dagenais [Dagenais, Marcel G., Dagenais, Denyse L., 1997. Higher moment estimators for linear regression models with errors in the variables. Journal of Econometrics 76 (1–2), 193–221] higher moments estimator as a solution. Our results show that estimates of the cost of equity obtained with Dagenais and Dagenais estimator differ sharply from popular OLS estimates and shed a new light on performance attribution and abnormal performance (α). Adapting the Generalized Treynor Ratio, recently developed by Hübner [Hübner, Georges, 2005. The generalized treynor ratio. Review of Finance 9 (3), 415–435], we show that the performance of managed portfolios with multi-index models should be revisited in presence of errors-in-variables.