Econometric analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing experiments

This paper adapts the two-stage neo-classical model of consumer behavior to the analysis of time-of-use pricing of electricity. Emphasis is placed upon the relationship between partial elasticities, which can be accurately estimated from the first stage, and total elasticities, which can be estimated only by using less reliable information to estimate the second stage. Three functional forms are implemented with data from the Wisconsin Pricing Experiment. Results indicate that (1) the CES and generalized Leontief functional forms are preferred, (2) price elasticities vary substantially with price, and (3) peak and off-peak electricity are partial substitutes but total complements.     

The industrial demand for energy

This paper uses a constant elasticity of substitution production function to examine the extent of factor substitutability in the production of industrial goods. Subsequently, the degree of interfuel substitution is estimated and it is demonstrated that all energy sources are substitutable. Finally, the stability of the demand for various energy sources is empirically tested for and it is concluded that over the period of investigation the demand has in fact remained unaltered.     

A two-level electricity demand model : Evaluation of the connecticut time-of-day pricing test

A two-stage budgeting model is developed for electricity demand where comsumption in each period is treated as a different commodity. A relative household demand model is first estimated, a consistent price index for electricity is constructed, and then a total electricity consumption model is estimated. Economic procedures are derived which permit application of the model to both time-of-day price situations and also declining vlock price situatiions which result in non-linear budget sets. The model is applied to both types of situations- the data from the Connecticut time-of-day pricing test as well as data from the declining block rate situation of the prevoius year. The model is also tested in a forecasting application to time-of-day customers.     

Dynamic advertising and pricing with constant demand elasticities

In this paper we analyze a stochastic dynamic advertising and pricing model with isoelastic demand. The state space is discrete, time is continuous and the planing horizon is allowed to be finite or infinite. A dynamic version of the Dorfman–Steiner identity will be derived. Explicit expressions of the optimal advertising and pricing policies, of the value function and of the optimal advertising expenditures will be given. The general results will be used to analyze the case of impatient customers. Furthermore, particular time inhomogeneous models and homogeneous ones with and without discounting will be examined. We will study the social efficiency of a monopolist's optimal policies and the consequences of specific subsidies. From a buyer's perspective, our analysis reveals that waiting – when looking at (immediate) expected prices – is never profitable should two or more units be available. But we will also prove that the sequence of average sales prices is monotone decreasing. Moreover, the techniques applied to solve the discrete stochastic advertising and pricing problem will be used to solve a related deterministic control problem with continuous state space.     

"审"视电力黑洞

当审计署要对原电力公司进行大规模的审计时,各驻地特派办最大的感受就是接到的举报信数量猛地上升,此象也彰示了电力累积问题之突出。审计结束,果不其然。审计长向全国人大常委会所作的报告中,披露了其三大问题:一是损益不实,少计收入、收益和多列成本。1998年至2002年,累计少计利润78亿元;二是决策失误造成重大损失,因个别领导人违反决策程序或擅自决策造成损失或潜在损失32.8亿元,占42%;三是国有资产流失比较严重。因违规处置资产、通过关联交易让利,造成国有资产向三产企业流失29.7亿元,占66%;因违规对外投资、借款、担保以及其他违法违…     

Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel

We analyze whether it is better to forecast air travel demand using aggregate data at (say) a national level, or to aggregate the forecasts derived for individual airports using airport-specific data. We compare the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) practice of predicting the total number of passengers using macroeconomic variables with an equivalently specified AIM (aggregating individual markets) approach. The AIM approach outperforms the aggregate forecasting approach in terms of its out-of-sample air travel demand predictions for different forecast horizons. Variants of AIM, where we restrict the coefficient estimates of some explanatory variables to be the same across individual airports, generally dominate both the aggregate and AIM approaches. The superior out-of-sample performances of these so-called quasi-AIM approaches depend on the trade-off between heterogeneity and estimation uncertainty. We argue that the quasi-AIM approaches exploit the heterogeneity across individual airports efficiently, without suffering from as much estimation uncertainty as the AIM approach.     

需求不确定性条件下的成本研究

文章分析了需求不确定性带来的成本影响,并且比较两种不同供应链模式的优劣以及对于不确定性的柔性。     

The case for road pricing

The argument in principle for pricing the use of road space rests on firm intellectual foundations. The necessary technology is readily available. Public acceptance of the idea, with the concomitant need for investment in new roads, is subject to much confusion, reinforced by Nimbyism on one side and Swampyism on the other.     

Production quality and pricing strategy for substitutable products under comparison effects

Comparison effects have been studied extensively in many fields. In particular, existing operations management articles have discussed the impact of comparison effects on enterprises' production and pricing decisions. Research has also shown that consumers' purchasing decisions are primarily determined by three factors: product quality, selling price, and comparison effects. The current study introduces the concepts of social and temporal comparison effects to examine how comparison effects influence a monopolist’s production quality and pricing strategy for substitutable products. Results reveal the following: (1) Setting different prices for even two types of substitutable products with negligible quality differences can divide customers into three groups under the influence of social comparison effects in a single-stage model. (2) The monopolist should avoid using a price discrimination strategy in which products with a short market life cycle have the same quality but different prices. (3) When the market life cycle of products is sufficiently long in the single-product market and the market with two substitutable products, the monopolist’s optimal choice in the second stage is to keep production quality constant and increase the selling price. Consequently, the number of buyers does not decrease because of temporal comparison effects. Therefore, the firm increases its revenue. (4) For the market with two substitutable products with quality differences, one approximate optimal strategy for the enterprise in the second stage is to keep the selling price constant with the assumption that product quality cannot be adjusted after the first period. At this point, the consumption situation in the market is the same as that in the first stage. Therefore, when no external constraints exist, the monopolist firm can obtain more benefits in the second stage than in the first stage by exploiting the temporal comparison effects of consumers in the second stage. (5) When consumer identity information can be confirmed in the market, social comparison effects, similar to temporal comparison effects, could help the enterprise increase its price and profit while maintaining product quality. These social and temporal comparison effects constrain consumers. Thus, the number of people who continue to buy products does not decrease.     

The demand for industrial sites in a metropolitan area: Theory,empirical evidence,and policy implications

A model of urban manufacturing location is developed in order to explain the demand for industrial sites in a metropolitan area. Within the theory of qualitative choice behavior, firms identified by a set of eight characteristics are viewed as selecting sites possessing two attributes of varying degrees of importance to different kinds of firms. Using a multinomial logit specification, the model is estimated for the Cincinnati SMSA. The results lend support to the firm-specific nature of the site selection process. Information concerning the determination of the spatial distribution of the firm types in Cincinnati is derived from the analysis. Implications for the possible effectiveness of a policy initiative designed to alter existing patterns of urban industrial location conclude the paper.     

An evaluation of proposals for metropolitan sharing of commercial and industrial property tax base

This paper examines proposals to withdraw taxing authority over commercial and industrial property from municipalities and confer it on a metropolitan government to be taxed at a uniform rate. A theory which suggests that local tax payments by firms represent compensation for their external effects is used to show that such proposals could reduce the efficiency of land use in the metropolitan area. Empirical work indicates that the proposals would not necessarily be progressive, and in any case they are inferior in this respect to metropolitan taxation of all property.     

Differential pricing and production strategies for heterogeneous products under cannibalization and promotional effects

This study examines the optimal pricing and production strategy of a closed-loop supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a recycler, and consumers. Considering the cannibalization and promotion effects of remanufactured products on new and secondhand products, we constructed Stackelberg game models under different scenarios. We analyze the impact of the changes in the two effects on the optimal prices and production strategies of the manufacturer and recycler, as well as their countermeasures. We find that (i) how the cannibalization and promotional effects influence the manufacturer and the recycler's pricing and production strategies differ under different scenarios; (ii) when the two effects exceed a threshold, the manufacturer abandons new or remanufactured products, and the recycler prefers to stop production on its new products or continue to remanufacture products; and (iii) the two effects always reduce the profits of the manufacturer and increase the profits of the recycler.     

Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental instrument in the efficient operational management and planning of electric utilities. Emerging smart grid technologies pose new challenges and opportunities. Although load forecasting at the aggregate level has been extensively studied, electrical load forecasting at fine-grained geographical scales of households is more challenging. Among existing approaches, semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) have been increasingly popular due to their accuracy, flexibility, and interpretability. Their applicability is justified when forecasting is addressed at higher levels of aggregation, since the aggregated load pattern contains relatively smooth additive components. High resolution data are highly volatile, forecasting the average load using GAM models with smooth components does not provide meaningful information about the future demand. Instead, we need to incorporate irregular and volatile effects to enhance the forecast accuracy. We focus on the analysis of such hybrid additive models applied on smart meters data and show that it leads to improvement of the forecasting performances of classical additive models at low aggregation levels.     

Post‐privatisation industrial relations in the UK rail and electricity industries

Commercial firms in industries once under public ownership generally have well‐organised trade unions with significant disruptive capacity, yet overt confict is often low despite major change. This paper examines the experience of two major rail and energy companies after privatisation. The results demonstrate the importance of sectoral characteristics, and the form of privatisation itself, in shaping industrial relations. The exercise of strategic choice at firm level also undermines any general industrial relations ‘theory of privatisation’.