收入不平等下的零加成改革*——医生策略反应与医疗支出再分配

本文主要研究药品零加成改革引起的医疗支出在病情间的再分配效应。首先，本文利用中国健康与养老追踪调查进行双重差分分析，讨论改革对医疗支出在病情间分配的影响。回归结果显示，地区平均药占比每增加10个百分点，病情严重程度等于均值的患者的总治疗费用将显著上升513%。在此基础上，病情严重程度每增加1个标准差，患者的总治疗费用将少增加298%。进一步，本文在患者收入、病情二维异质性的框架下讨论了这种现象可能的成因并从实证上进行验证。分析表明，改革提高了对重症更有益的诊疗手段的相对价格，改变了医生在诊疗方案上的选择。这种改变会因患者的支付能力不同而有差异，相比收入低且病情较重的患者，医生更多地对收入高且病情较轻的患者使用了对重症更有益的诊疗手段。这种微观选择引起了医疗资源在病情间的扭曲配置和医疗支出向轻病的倾斜。     

回归医疗服务本质:从“医药分开”看医疗服务供给

本文在构建中介变量模型并实证分析“医药分开”对医疗服务供给影响的基础上,研究了优化医疗服务供给的政策建议.研究发现,医疗服务供给中存在的问题源自两个分离:一是医方剩余控制权与剩余索取权的分离;二是需求者与支付者角色的分离.前者解释了效率不高的问题,后者解释了费用较高的问题.进一步研究表明,优化医疗服务供给亟需回归医疗服务本质:把握关键要素,将改善医院和医生收入作为突破口;树立正确导向,将理顺医疗服务价格体系作为长久之策;平衡各方利益,将财政补贴作为医药分开的主要手段;扫除制度障碍,逐步消除不合理的合约形式.     

贸易政策不确定性对粮食安全的影响——基于全球93个国家数据的实证分析

基于全球93个国家2001—2020年面板数据，采用动态面板回归模型与中介效应模型，实证考察贸易政策不确定性与粮食安全间的内在联系。研究显示：贸易政策不确定性下降对粮食安全具有明显正向影响，并对粮食安全的供给支柱、获取支柱、稳定支柱、利用支柱均发挥显著正向作用；中介效应检验发现，农产品市场开放度、农业科技创新能力在贸易政策不确定性影响粮食安全过程中发挥显著正向中介作用；异质性分析结果表明，贸易政策不确定性下降对低收入国家、中等收入国家粮食安全及其四大支柱的影响程度均超过高等收入国家。对此，提出加速构筑新发展格局、实施贸易救济常态化举措、聚焦农业科技创新成果的政策建议，以期为中国改善粮食安全状况提供理论与实践引导。     

研发费用加计扣除政策对企业金融化的影响——基于A股上市公司数据的实证研究

从研发费用加计扣除政策的政策效应出发,在理论分析的基础上构建固定效应模型,基于沪深两市A股上市公司的经验数据证实了研发费用加计扣除政策对企业金融化具有抑制作用。通过中介效应检验机制证实,研发费用加计扣除政策可以通过缓解企业融资约束、降低企业税负水平以及增加企业经营活动现金流这三条路径来抑制企业金融化。从中介效应的影响程度来看,融资约束缓解的影响最大,企业税负水平降低次之,经营活动现金流增加的影响最小。从异质性分析的角度来看,研发费用加计扣除政策对企业金融化的抑制作用在成立时间较长或研发投入强度较大的企业中比较突出。相关成果丰富了研发费用加计扣除政策对企业金融化影响的研究内容,并根据研究结论提出相应政策建议。     

农机补贴的收入分配效应：效率、公平，抑或兼而有之*

农机补贴是具有门槛效应的效率增益政策，通常效率与公平如鱼和熊掌不可兼得。本文通过理论模型分析了农机补贴对农业生产及农村劳动力转移的影响；并通过工具变量法和中介变量法研究了农机补贴的收入分配效应及其作用机制。研究发现，农机补贴显著降低了农户收入的基尼系数，提高了收入分配公平性；其作用机制是农机补贴提升了农业生产效率，促进了农村劳动力转移，提高了打工收入，尤其是相对贫困农户，溢出效应对冲了门槛效应，使得农机补贴的收入分配效应兼具了效率和公平。     

医院竞争的患者福利效应分析——来自公立医院改革准自然实验的证据

医院竞争是医疗体制改革的大趋势，现阶段医疗供需矛盾日益突出，医院竞争对患者福利的影响不容忽视。本文构建了医院决策和患者就诊的动态博弈模型，研究了提高医院竞争程度对患者福利的影响及微观作用机制，并分析不同的竞争性医疗需求对医院竞争与患者福利关系的作用。通过双重差分方法，利用第二批公立医院改革的准自然实验对医院竞争影响患者福利的效果进行验证，研究发现，医院竞争对患者的福利水平具有显著的促进作用。机制分析表明，在公立医院改革的过程中，医院竞争在没有明显提高医疗价格的情况下主要通过改善医疗质量、降低交通费用影响患者福利。调节效应分析显示，在竞争性医疗需求越高的医疗市场中，医院竞争对患者福利的提升效果越大。本文为医疗体制改革背景下中国医疗产业竞争政策如何满足患者的医疗需求、提升福利水平提供了理论支持。     

农业产业化促进农民增收——基于河北省时间序列数据的实证分析

在乡村振兴的背景下,农村持续推进农业产业化。本文利用2001-2018年的河北省数据,通过基准回归模型和中介效应模型,研究农业产业化是否对农民的人均可支配收入有影响,引入中介变量居民价格消费指数,从农业产业化的两个维度分析其对农民收入的作用机制。研究发现：河北省实施农业产业化不仅对农民可支配收入产生了直接的作用,而且还可以通过影响农村居民价格消费指数对农村居民人均可支配收入产生影响。据此研究结果,本文相应提出对策建议。     

更新医院经营理念 适应市场经济发展

医疗服务行业从计划体制转向市场体制是一场革命，它将深刻地触动医院的经营理念、经营策略和运行机制等各个方面。目前，医院面临的现实，一是国家严格控制医疗费用与社会的高需求的矛盾；二是医疗保险制度改革后，所有病人看病都要自付一定比例的费用，从医疗费用的控制角度来讲，既约束了病人，也约束了医院，同时也加剧了医患之间的矛盾；三是面对医院分类管理和医药分开核算与药品收入占医院业务收     

环境规制的收入效应——以秸秆禁烧为例

本文采用CFPS的5年面板数据，运用多期双重差分法，评估禁止露天焚烧秸秆政策对农户收入的影响。研究发现：秸秆禁烧对人均家庭收入无影响，但是改变了收入结构。一方面，农户耕种的积极性下降，导致人均农业纯收入显著下降；另一方面，农户积极调整土地资源，土地出租概率显著上升，带来人均土地出租收入的显著增加。此外，在非农产业有前期基础的地方，除了人均土地出租收入，人均工资性收入亦显著增加，对环境规制的不利影响起到了重要的对冲作用。本文还从减少相关生产、转变经营模式和进行绿色转型三个方面，对比农户和工业企业应对环境规制的不同方式，指出农户更倾向于向外部找突破，通过调整土地和劳动力资本配置来增加非农收入。     

不完美信息、供给者诱导需求与医疗服务质量

医疗费用增加的原因是多方面的,但医学专业知识所带来的医患信息不对称是否会带来供给者诱导需求从而导致医疗费用的增加?文章研究了垄断竞争市场中的供给者诱导需求及其大小的决定因素,并加入了患者的不完美信息对于诱导需求的影响分析,以及如何提高医生的努力程度/服务水平。文章最后给出了相应的政策含义。     

中国地区居民生活水平比较——基于全球夜间灯光数据

当衡量一国或地区居民生活水平时,统计学上一般有收入和消费两种视角。本文利用城乡住户调查中的人均可支配收入和国民经济核算中的居民消费水平,以全球夜间灯光数据为参照,综合收入端与消费端信息,对1997—2016年中国31个地区的真实生活水平进行比较分析。研究证实,灯光亮度与消费水平和人均可支配收入之间均存在显著的线性关系,可以用来估算真实生活水平。根据不同模型的回归结果得到,真实生活水平的最优无偏估计中消费水平的权重范围为（2795%,3831%）,人均可支配收入水平的权重范围为（6169%,7205%）。相对于消费水平,人均可支配收入更能准确地反映真实生活水平。本文进一步分析发现,样本期内居民生活水平增速小于人均GDP增速,可见经济的发展并未完全转化为生活水平的提高。中西部地区与东部地区的生活水平仍然存在巨大差距,东部地区的平均生活水平分别是中部和西部地区的17倍和21倍。     

THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM AND CONFLICTS ON GROWTH IN ASIA

This paper quantifies the impact of terrorism and conflicts on income per capita growth in Asia for 1970–2004. Our panel estimations show that transnational terrorist attacks had a significant growth-limiting effect. An additional terrorist incident per million persons reduces gross domestic product per capita growth by about 1.5%. In populous countries, many additional attacks are needed to achieve such a large impact. Transnational terrorism reduces growth by crowding-in government expenditures. Unlike developing countries, developed countries are able to absorb terrorism without displaying adverse economic consequences. An internal conflict has the greatest growth concern, more than twice that of transnational terrorism. Conflict variables are associated with smaller investment shares and increased government spending, with the crowding-in of government spending being the dominant influence.     

The import of hospital rate setting programs on hospital and health care expenditures, 1975–85

To reduce hospital expenditures, many jurisdictions now regulate hospital rates. Prior theoretical work has demonstrated, however, that the effect of rate regulation on total expenditures is a priori unclear. Empirical research has found that hospital rate setting programs have reduced expenditures per diem and per admission, but not necessarily hospital expenditures or total health care expenditure per capita. This study extends this empirical research. It employs pooled cross section-time series data on state level expenditure, regulatory, and demographic variables obrserved annually for 1975–85. The analysis provides little evidence that hospital rate setting programs have reduced hospital expenditures. Some rate setting programs actually are positively and significantly related to hospital expenditures. Overall, this study does not suggest that regulatory programs will reduce hospital expenditures.     

Does environmental quality influence health expenditures? Empirical evidence from a panel of selected OECD countries

In this paper we examine the role of environmental quality in determining per capita health expenditures. We take a panel cointegration approach in order to explore the possibility of estimating both short-run and long-run impacts of environmental quality. Our empirical analysis is based on eight OECD countries, namely Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK for the period 1980-1999. We find that per capita health expenditure, per capita income, carbon monoxide emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emissions are panel cointegrated. While short-run elasticities reveal that income and carbon monoxide emissions exert a statistically significant positive effect on health expenditures, in the long-run in addition to income and carbon monoxide, we find that sulphur oxide emissions have a statistically significant positive impact on health expenditures.     

Non-farm Income and Consumption Expenditures in Rural Bangladesh: Empirical Evidence from Multilevel Regression Modelling

This study examines the effects of non-farm income on household consumption expenditures in rural Bangladesh. A two-stage endogenous treatment effect model is built on data from a nationally representative Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 to control selection bias. The HIES follows a hierarchical data structure because the survey is based on two-stage stratified sampling. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model is used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity between clusters (PSUs) along with revealing important factors. Results reveal that non-farm income has a significant positive effect on household’s consumption expenditures and non-farm income recipient households spend about 29% more than their counterparts. In addition, higher level of per capita income, education, smaller family size and lower dependency ratio are found to be more effective in increasing consumption expenditures of rural households. Significant cluster-level variations are observed in the analyses. This study recommends that non-farm income generating activities should be encouraged among rural households as this would raise their consumption expenditures and hence, improve welfare and living standards among them.

     

Nonlinearity in medical expenditures: a new semiparametric approach

Research in empirical health economics has found that the relationship between medical expenditures and age, income and other variables can be highly nonlinear. Moreover, men and women can have quite different medical expenditure patterns due to their differences in life expectancy. Thus it may be difficult to find an appropriate parametric model to capture the highly complicated nonlinearity in medical expenditures, and introducing a simple gender dummy variable in a parametric model may not reveal all the medical expenditure differences between men and women. This study takes a semiparametric approach. In particular, an additive partially linear specification is employed to study the relationship between medical expenditures and age, income, gender and other individual characteristics. Using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey, the results indicate that the semiparametric approach taken in this study is very promising. They confirm that medical expenditures are nonlinear in income and age, and that men and women have quite different medical expenditure patterns.     

AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATE OF THE RELATION BETWEEN TWO MEASURES OF ECONOMIC WELFARE*

The main objective of this paper is to explore and quantify the difference between two measures of comparative economic welfare: (a) the more or less conventional measure of per capita national income, and (b) the capitalized value of expected future income per capita. The paper begins with a brief summary of the argument in favor of the present value of expected future income per capita as a measure of economic welfare. This is followed by an examination of the empirical relationship of the ratio of the suggested alternative measure to per capita income and an analysis of the variables used to compute the present value of expected income per capita. The main conclusion drawn from the calculations is that very substantial differences occur in the measurement of relative economic well-being depending on which measure is used. A final section discusses the implications of this finding for international comparisons of economic welfare.     

信息技术的分配效应*——论“互联网+”对劳动收入份额的影响

现有文献大多关注信息技术的“增长效应”，但对其“分配效应”没有进行深入的探讨，尤其是没有研究信息技术如何影响企业初次分配中资本和劳动两种要素的收入份额。本文使用中国工业企业数据库2004—2007年的微观数据，分析企业使用信息技术对要素收入分配格局的影响。本文研究发现，使用信息技术的企业其劳动收入份额更高，并且这一结论对于不同的变量、样本和模型设定都十分稳健。信息技术的分配效应也存在异质性，在内资企业、内销企业、东部地区的企业表现更加明显。对影响机制的讨论表明，使用信息技术在提高企业增加值的同时，更大幅度地提高了平均劳动报酬，从而导致初次分配更加偏向劳动。本文不仅填补了相关领域的空白，而且具有明显的政策含义。     

政府R&D补贴政策与企业创新决策间双向动态耦合与非线性关系*

本文以新常态下创新驱动的引擎产业——高技术产业为研究对象,通过面板向量自回归方法将政府的直接补贴、税收优惠与企业的资本、人员投入及创新收益同时纳入系统框架,研究政府R&D补贴政策与企业创新行为决策之间的双向动态耦合关系,然后基于动态面板门限回归研究企业创新收益与两类R&D补贴政策间可能存在的非线性关系,并以理论模型与经验研究相结合的方式分析直接补贴与税收优惠影响高技术企业创新的机理及作用效果。研究证实企业增加创新投入是提高创新收益的根本原因;R&D补贴对企业资本投入的“挤入作用”并不明显,但税收优惠能有效激励高技术企业在人员方面的投入;政府“低补贴、低优惠”的双低策略更有利于提高企业的创新收益。     

The impact of work and non‐work migration on household welfare,poverty and inequality

This article estimates the impact of work migration and non‐work migration on per capita income, per capita expenditures, poverty and inequality in Vietnam using data from the two most recent Vietnam Household and Living Standard Surveys. We find that both work migration and non‐work migration have a positive impact on per capita expenditures of migrant‐sending households. Non‐work migration significantly decreases the incidence, depth and severity of national poverty. The effect of work migration on poverty is much smaller. Still, while work migration does not lift people out of poverty, it makes their poverty less severe. In addition, both work migration and non‐work migration decrease inequality, albeit only very slightly.