互联网众筹融资及其激励约束与风险管理——基于金融市场分层的视角

本文提出了众筹融资机制革新的理论框架,在分析其运作模式的基础上,以金融市场分层为视角,探讨了众筹融资对股权市场分层的影响,进而借鉴Wojciech(2013)的模型,深入阐述了众筹融资克服信息不对称风险的方法和激励各方积极参与的措施。众筹融资,对于生产者来讲,可以帮助他们获得项目融资、降低资金成本,但也需要他们保持良好的声誉,披露项目信息,真正做出满足市场需求的创新;对于消费者来讲,不仅可以使其投资范围不再受到限制,而且可以让他们根据自己对项目的判断,成为早期股东,但同时也需要他们承担项目失败的机会成本和回报降低的风险;对于平台来讲,不仅可以由此获取项目的成交费用,而且可以根据平台客户的需求,获得提供证实融资过程、监督项目执行、提供融资建议等服务的费用;对于三方来讲,各方都希望能最大限度地提高项目成交比例,因而可以实现激励相容。此外,众筹融资也需要通过声誉、规则、人群的尽职调查和阈值等机制,来规范市场行为。众筹融资虽然具有诸多优点,但在中国仍处于萌芽状态,其发展状况还取决于国内的信用体系、法律制度和大数据分析的发展情况。     

在金融风险管理中推广应用系统工程

防范和控制金融风险必须建立科学、系统的管理方法。本提出在金融风险管理中推广应用系统工程的基本思路。着重阐述了风险管理中应用系统工程的信息工程方法、控制方法、系统预测技术、系统评价技术以及决策技术等，以求达到防范和控制金融风险的目的。     

金融市场的复杂性与金融风险调控：基于金融混沌理论

以金融混沌理论为代表的非线性金融理论是金融研究与金融实务领域的一个前沿工具.已有的研究表明金融市场是一个复杂的动力系统,具有显著的混沌效应.本文依据混沌控制的一般原理,提出了金融市场风险调控的原理与方法.这一研究结果将为探索金融市场与风险管理理论提供新的方向.     

Model Selection and Averaging in Financial Risk Management

Simulated asset returns are used in many areas of actuarial science. For example, life insurers use them to price annuities, life insurance, and investment guarantees. The quality of those simulations has come under increased scrutiny during the current financial crisis. When simulating the asset price process, properly choosing which model or models to use, and accounting for the uncertainty in that choice, is essential. We investigate how best to choose a model from a flexible set of models. In our regime-switching models the individual regimes are not constrained to be from the same distributional family. Even with larger sample sizes, the standard model-selection methods (AIC, BIC, and DIC) incorrectly identify the models far too often. Rather than trying to identify the best model and limiting the simulation to a single distribution, we show that the simulations can be made more realistic by explicitly modeling the uncertainty in the model-selection process. Specifically, we consider a parallel model-selection method that provides the posterior probabilities of each model being the best, enabling model averaging and providing deeper insights into the relationships between the models. The value of the method is demonstrated through a simulation study, and the method is then applied to total return data from the S&P 500.     

QFII:我国现阶段开放金融市场的合适模式

QFII制度是一种新的制度安排,它在金融全球化的过程中既可以对发展中国家的金融市场提高某种保护,也可以推动发展中国家金融市场的开放和发展.因此,它是我国在相当长的时间里应该选择的一种金融市场的开放模式.     

财政变革:从“分钱”到“绩效”

如果说从计划经济时代的财政到公共财政,是财政的一次革命的话,那么财政绩效管理体系的实施和建立,则是让财政正经历着从管分钱到还管花钱的效果的二次革命。广东省财政科研所许航敏博士在接受记者采访时却说了这么一句话:虽然很多媒体都在报道我们广     

Retracted: Risk Management in Financial Institutions

We study risk management in financial institutions using data on hedging of interest rate and foreign exchange risk. We find strong evidence that institutions with higher net worth hedge more, controlling for risk exposures, across institutions and within institutions over time. For identification, we exploit net worth shocks resulting from loan losses due to declines in house prices. Institutions that sustain such shocks reduce hedging significantly relative to otherwise-similar institutions. The reduction in hedging is differentially larger among institutions with high real estate exposure. The evidence is consistent with the theory that financial constraints impede both financing and hedging.     

财务危机预警模型在商业银行信贷风险管理中的应用

商业银行不良信贷已经成为其发展的瓶颈,商业银行要发展,就必须从根本上降低未来不良贷款形成的可能性。本文认为形成不良贷款最主要的原因是企业盈利能力的下降。因此借助我国上市公司的财务样本数据,建立了企业财务危机预警的生存分析模型——Cox模型,该模型具有可以使用时间序列、无需样本配对、连续预测和高鲁棒性的特点,能够为商业银行提供更为有效的企业财务危机预测,从而降低商业银行不良贷款的形成。     

信贷风险管理中财务预警模型的应用

加强信贷风险管理是商业银行价值创造的重要途径。国内外经验表明,风险发现得越早,越能有效控制和妥善处理。运用财务预警模型对信贷风险进行早期预警,是提早发现风险信号、加强信贷风险管理的重要手段。从企业经营的角度看,     

新兴市场信用风险管理的十大障碍

如今银行在改善其风险管理方面承受着巨大的压力。这些压力部分来自国内竞争日趋激烈的商业环境,部分来自于国内的监管机构,还有部分来自市场全球化以及随之而来的新的竞争者和监管者。《巴塞尔新资本协议》正是在这种背景中应运而生的;该协议可以被认为平添了促生变革的压力,也可被看作在某种程度上将良好的信用风险管理措施系统化制度化,从而在变革进程中为银行提供帮助。     

The Role of Internal Capital Markets in Financial Intermediaries: Evidence From Insurer Groups

We exploit the transparency of internal capital markets (ICMs) within insurance groups to investigate the activity and efficiency of ICMs within insurance groups. Specifically, we compare the relationship between internal capital transfers and investment to that between capital from other sources and investment. The ability to track the actual ICM transactions allows for more direct analysis of ICM activity than most previous studies. Consistent with theory, we find evidence that ICMs play a significant role in the investment behavior of affiliated insurers. We then use these detailed data to execute a more direct test of ICM efficiency than currently exists in the literature. Consistent with ICM efficiency, results suggest that capital is allocated to subsidiaries with the best expected performance.     

Impediments to Communication in Financial Institutions: Implications for the Risk Management Organization

This article investigates the question of how risk management should be embedded in a financial firm’s hierarchy. We answer this question by combining capital market theory with game-theoretic thinking. We develop a theory for the integration of risk management into an organization, based on private information and differences in preferences. Our model compares the payoffs from uninformed decision-making, solo decision-making, joint voting decision-making, and coordinated decision-making when information about a project’s expected return and risk is dispersed in the organization. Our findings have a number of implications for the organization of risk management.     

Trust in Financial Markets

This paper examines contemporaneous and historical evidence on the structure of ownership and control of corporate sectors in developed countries to draw lessons for development of financial markets. It records the critical role that equity markets played in the ownership and financing of corporations at the beginning of the 20th century. It notes that this occurred in the absence of formal systems of regulation and that equity markets functioned on the basis of informal relationships of trust. These were sustained through local stock markets in the UK, banks in Germany, and business coordinators and family firms in Japan. The paper explores the concept of trust that is required to promote the development of financial markets.     

Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets

After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, interest in nonlinear dynamics, especially deterministic chaotic dynamics, has increased in both the financial press and the academic literature. This has come about because the frequency of large moves in stock markets is greater than would be expected under a normal distribution. There are a number of possible explanations. A popular one is that the stock market is governed by chaotic dynamics. What exactly is chaos and how is it related to nonlinear dynamics? How does one detect chaos? Is there chaos in financial markets? Are there other explanations of the movements of financial prices other than chaos? The purpose of this paper is to explore these issues.     

适应金融市场环境 提升风险管理能力

进入新的五年计划时期，中国金融市场化环境已经并将继续发生新的深刻变化，包括利率和汇率市场化的进程不断加快，在此形势下，政府、银行和企业都面临一个更好地转变外部宏观金融市场环境，深入培育市场，更好地适应利率市场化和人民币汇率市场化的任务，只要积极主动应对，构建明晰的金融风险管理框架、提升风险计量与管理技术、方法、手段、工具，有效管理利率汇率风险，才能促进商业银行和全社会整体资金效益的提高和企业的可持续发展。     

金融工程在风险管理中的比较优势

金融工程产生的主要动因就是满足日益增长的风险管理需要.有效的风险管理活动,是要确保企业未来现金流量的稳定,而金融工程则拓展了人们进行风险管理的新思维,大大减少了风险管理成本,提高风险管理的效率,从而大大消除了社会经济摩擦,提高了经济金融效率.本文将金融工程与传统风险管理相比较,从中分析金融工程的比较优势.     

A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets

A contrast effect occurs when the value of a previously observed signal inversely biases perception of the next signal. We present the first evidence that contrast effects can distort prices in sophisticated and liquid markets. Investors mistakenly perceive earnings news today as more impressive if yesterday's earnings surprise was bad and less impressive if yesterday's surprise was good. A unique advantage of our financial setting is that we can identify contrast effects as an error in perceptions rather than expectations. Finally, we show that our results cannot be explained by an alternative explanation involving information transmission from previous earnings announcements.