国外个人住房抵押贷款提前还款风险研究进展

随着个人住房抵押贷款业务规模不断扩大,提前还款风险问题日益突出,了解国外个人住房抵押贷款提前还款风险研究进展和状况,对我国商业银行有效进行提前还款风险管理具有重大意义。     

商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险损失度量研究

随着个人住房抵押贷款的快速发展,我国商业银行个人住房贷款业务所聚集的潜在风险正日益凸现.本文借鉴国内外最新研究成果,从防范风险、提高商业银行资金利用效率的角度,应用Credit metric风险度量模型对采集数据进行度量研究,重点测量了商业银行个人住房抵押贷款所面临的非预期损失,得到了各信用等级抵押贷款的风险价值以及商业银行该为此贷款提取的经济资本,并提出了建立更加科学合理的经济资本缓冲制度的对策建议.     

个人住房抵押贷款借款人违约行为初探

在我国，居民购买住房主要有两个动机：一方面是为了改善居住条件：另一方面也是一种资产投资。由于住房的价格通常是个人年收入的几十倍。因此居民在做出住房抵押贷款决策的时候通常会把它当作一种长期的资产投资，因而资产投资收益的大小直接决定了住房抵押贷款借款者在借款合同期间的各种行为。     

个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素:一个文献综述

文章对个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素的文献进行了一个梳理和回顾,发现影响个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的因素总体上可以分为微观个体特征因素和外部宏观经济因素.个体特征可以区分出哪类借款人具有更高违约风险,外部宏观特征决定了借款人在哪些时间段和条件下具有更高违约风险.在个体特征方面,贷款价值比(LTV)、年龄、居住区域、还款方式、家庭收入、月还款额占家庭收入比例和住房面积等都是影响违约风险的重要因素;从外部宏观层面来看,房价变化、利率水平、季节等都是影响违约风险的重要因素.     

个人住房抵押贷款提前还款行为分析

近年来，提前还款成为个人住房抵押贷款发展中的重要问题。本文从提前还款的理论研究和实证研究出发，重点对我国商业银行提前还款的现状和对策进行了分析。     

青海省个人住房贷款风险分析

随着房地产价格的连续攀升,居民购房需求不断增加,青海省个人住房贷款业务和总量都得到了发展。在央行连续加息的背景下,笔者对个人购房动因、收入状况、提前还款等问题进行了调查,旨在揭示和预测青海省个人住房贷款业务中存在的风险及其走势,为商业银行及监管部门防范个人住房贷款业务风险提供参考。     

浅谈个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的防范——以西双版纳为例

随着我国社会经济和居民收入的不断增长,贷款需求也在不断增大。但是在个人住房抵押贷款规模不断扩大的形势下,相应的违约风险防范机制却没有健全完善,导致了个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的扩大化。因此本文以西双版纳为例,通过对个人住房抵押贷款风险状况的分析,提出了防范违约风险的具体策略,以期在和广大同行交流的同时,促进个人住房抵押贷款市场的良好发展。     

个人住房抵押贷款被动违约因子探析

个人住房抵押贷款被动违约是基于借款人发生财务困难等原因,导致无法按期支付住房抵押贷款而被银行收回房产的违约行为。本文采用问卷调查的方式,设计了个人收入降低、家庭支出增加、国家意外事件、个人意外事件、贷款特征、住房特征等六个因子,并利用SPSS社会科学统计软件包和LISREL8.53进行数据分析．从而探析各因子对个人住房抵押贷款被动违约风险的影响程度。     

突发事件视角下我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险研究

文章基于H商业银行2001年1月至2021年4月的个人住房抵押贷款数据,探讨在房地产调控政策趋严的宏观背景下,突发事件对商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约率的影响情况,进一步研究突发事件影响下不同职业借款人违约风险的变化情况。研究发现,一方面,突发事件导致商业银行个人住房抵押贷款的违约风险显著上升;另一方面,在突发事件的影响下,不同所有制企业的职工个人住房抵押贷款违约风险有所差异,工作单位性质为民营企业及个体工商户的借款人违约风险>工作单位性质为国有企业的借款人违约风险>工作单位性质为事业单位的借款人违约风险。H商业银行2001年1月至2021年4月的个人住房抵押贷款数据回归分析结果支持以上结论。     

我国个人住房贷款利率合理水平探讨

本文从个人住房贷款利率水平影响因素角度入手，运用中美两国住房贷款利率水平比较的方法对我国当前的个人住房贷款的合理利率水平进行分析。得出了我国目前的个人住房贷款利率水平偏高的基本结论，认为我国商业银行拥有高于国外同行的超额利润，房贷存在“暴利”，我国浮动利率住房贷款利率水平合理的范围应当在4-5％左右。     

住房贷款违约风险定量分析初探

本首先剖析了影响住房贷款违约风险的主要因素，然后引入Merton的结构化模型来分析住房贷款在等额偿还方式下违约风险的度量问题，并从横向和纵向两个角度，通过模拟计算得出房价波动率和无风险利率对住房贷款的违约概率、预期损失和违约风险溢价的影响规律以及这三个指标在贷款期内的变化规律。     

An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China

The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners.     

Valuation of Mortgage Servicing Rights with Foreclosure Delay and Forbearance Allowed

We develop a bivariate binomial model to price Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs). Our model is an improvement over previous MSR pricing models by explicitly incorporating the realistic assumptions that there are additional costs involved in servicing delinquent loans. In addition to the Hilliard et al. mortgage-pricing tree, we extend additional sub-branches to model the borrower's decision of prepayment, cure, and foreclosure after a loan becomes delinquent. We then investigate how the value of the Mortgage Servicing Right varies with interest rate volatility, house price volatility, delinquency options, deficiency judgments, default penalties, forbearance periods, and speed of adjustments factors. JEL Classification: C15, G21     

基于借款人保护视角的住房按揭贷款业务分析

文章在揭示住房按揭贷款的内涵与本质的基础上,总结出现阶段我国住房按揭贷款业务中借款人面临的主要问题有:开发商虚假承诺为业主办理按揭贷款、商业银行实施强制保险问题、商业贷款与公积金贷款问题、等额本金还款法与等额本息还款法的利息负担等。针对这些问题产生的原因以及影响,文章从保护借款人的角度分别提出相应的对策建议,包括:保费应与贷款余额同步减少,购房者应事前了解商业银行拒贷原因,购房者应结合自身的投资能力选择还款方式,人民银行应进一步明确对提前还贷违约金的规定等。     

Valuation of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities with Default Risk Using an Intensity-Based Approach

This paper develops a valuation model for fixed-rate mortgages, mortgage pools, and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS's) using an intensity-based approach. This model incorporates full prepayment, partial prepayment, and default in valuing a mortgage. Full prepayment is further classified into “refinancing” and “sale of a house” depending on the reason. The time of occurrence of each of these three types of prepayment and default is modeled as the first jump time of a Cox process. Under these conditions, the valuation formula for a mortgage as well as a partial differential equation (PDE) that the mortgage value satisfies is provided. As for implementation of the model, the short-term riskless interest rate and the house price are adopted as state variables. Each intensity process is specified in a manner that allows a jump in intensity depending on the state variables and the borrower's incentive for prepayment or default. Through such specifications, it is shown that our model has characteristics similar to some structural models in previous literature. As for the numerical method for valuation, we propose a simple backward induction technique on a tree instead of the commonly used Monte Carlo method. Additionally, the method for estimating the model is discussed, and the results of numerical simulations are reported.This paper represents the view of the author and does note necessarily the views of the Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., Ltd. or members of its staff.     

Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

Appraisal Quality and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from Alaska

We empirically examine the effect of appraisal quality on subsequent mortgage loan performance using data from the high volatility housing market of Alaska in the 1980s. We develop measures of appraisal quality by computing the residual between a hedonic estimate of house value using available information from other appraisals compared to actual ex ante appraised value. We then estimate proportional hazard models of mortgage default and find that several measures of appraisal quality, particularly appraised value in excess of hedonic estimates, are significantly related to default risk. Using valuations subsequent to loan default, we are also able to evaluate how well house price indices perform in terms of estimating current loan-to-value and offer some additional evidence on the controversy over the role of net equity versus trigger events as determinants of mortgage default. We also show that defaults are related to ex ante measures of housing market conditions, with additional implications for underwriting policies and the current industry trend away from traditional appraisal and toward automated valuation.     

Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances,Who Moves,and Who Defaults?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Why, when, and who terminates their mortgages? The primary reasons for mortgage termination are refinancing, selling of the property, and default....     

商业银行抵押贷款问题调查

抵押是商业银行重要的信用风险缓释技术之一。本报告分析了本轮经济增长中抵押贷款的增长趋势及其风险,比较了国内13家金融机构内部有关抵押的管理制度以及各监管当局现行的抵押监管要求和香港金融管理局抵押品监管指引,指出商业银行要根据抵押资产价格走势调整抵押率、准确定价、充足拨备,避免经营的剧烈起伏。监管当局也要加强经济景气分析和有关抵押资产价格走势分析,对抵押率进行监测,并制定有关抵押问题的监管指引。