地方政府性债务与区域经济增长

根据债务审计数据,在对地方政府债务发展态势与结构及其对区域经济增长作用机理分析的基础上,采用描述性统计方法对地方政府债务与区域经济增长的关系进行检验,结果发现:二者存在明显的正相关,这意味着政府举债对促进区域经济的增长产生了积极作用;随着负债率的提高,区域经济增长速度也在加快,但增长速度具有收敛性特征。这表明地方政府债务还未触及债务阈值,但仍需要警惕与防范债务风险,在控制地方政府债务增长的同时,需要考虑区域经济的均衡发展。     

地方政府债务可持续性研究

本文基于一个分析框架,构建地方政府债务可持续模型,利用1997-2012年数据,估算样本区域2012年地方政府债务的最优规模与实际规模。结果发现,目前地方政府债务均具有可持续性;政府债务实际规模呈现"东高西低"的特征,最优规模不具有这种特征;债务逾期率则呈现"西高东低"的特征,但样本区域仍处于安全值内。地方政府债务融资仍具有一定空间,但须加强监管。     

权责分离、政绩利益环境与地方政府债务超常规增长

我国地方政府债务客观上存在权责分离,这意味着债务权力难以受到债务责任的有效约束,如果出现地方政府“经济人”利益诱导,地方政府债务将超越社会利益范畴而出现超常规增长.可见,权责分离为地方政府债务超常规增长创造了条件,同时这种超常规增长还取决于不同政绩利益环境下的地方政府利益行为选择.实证检验发现,权责分离加剧了基于追求经济增长预期和应对人员支出压力对地方政府债务增长的影响,主要表现为债务违约.进一步检验发现,权责分离对债务超常规增长的影响还取决于地方政府“经济人”利益强度,这与上级政府补助引起的支出独立性存在负相关,即上级补助越多,支出独立性越弱,对债务依赖越小;与政府官员晋升激励存在正相关,即在“唯GDP”政绩考核模式下,周边同类地区经济水平越高,越能激发地方政府加速举债.最后,本文从改变债务权责关系、转变政府官员政绩观、优化财政分权体制等方面提出遏制地方政府债务超常规增长的相关制度措施.     

地方政府债务对省域经济收敛速度的影响研究

为研究地方政府债务对区域经济协调发展是否存在影响,本文以2009-2020年中国31个省份的面板数据为研究样本,运用传统经济收敛模型和空间经济收敛模型研究地方政府债务对省域经济收敛速度的影响。研究结果表明：在传统经济收敛模型和空间经济收敛模型下,地方政府债务均能加快省域经济收敛速度,即地方政府债务缩小了地区经济差距;空间经济收敛模型下,地方政府债务对省域经济收敛速度的影响更大,欠发达地区追上发达地区时间显著缩短;考虑地区异质性后,东、中部地区地方政府债务加快了经济收敛速度。基于此,要充分考虑各地区的实际情况进行举债,严格把关有关债务投向的决策和监督,防范地方政府债务风险,以促进区域经济协调发展。     

地方政府债务管理长效机制的构建探析

主权债务对于我国经济的发展具有一定程度的影响,目前我国地方政府面临的主要问题是债务偿还能力和财政收入能力之间的矛盾。造成这一现象的主要原因是由于我国分税制度"重中央政府税体建设,轻地方税体建设"的思想导致的。为了改变这种中央政府财政收入和地方政府财政收入发展不平衡的现象,构建长效的地方政府债务管理机制成为了当前地方税体改革的重要发展方针。     

“十二五”期间云南省区域经济发展回顾——基于地方政府债务建设角度的分析

近年来,云南省响应国家全面建设小康社会的号召,区域经济得到了较大发展。同时,得益于"中国-东盟自贸区"的成立,云南省作为面向东南亚的"大通道"和"桥头堡",政府积极运用扩张型财政政策,加大了对本省基础设施和公益性事业的投资,建成多个大型公共基础设施项目。这不仅带动了云南省经济的快速发展,增加了就业,也带来了人民生活水平的提高。但同时也带来了政府投资规模的扩大,地方政府赤字量因此增加,债务违约风险随之上升。本文通过回顾"十二五"期间云南省区域经济发展的概况,从云南省地方政府债务建设的视角,通过研究现有债务的规模、来源及其风险,来分析地方政府债务规模的大小对未来云南省区域经济未来可持续发展的影响,并给出相应的对策建议。     

政府影子银行债务与实体经济波动关系的实证研究

金融危机以来,在积极财政政策的推动下,我国影子银行债务特别是具有高杠杆性的政府影子银行债务快速增长,金融结构的不平衡风险增加,对实体经济稳定发展产生了较大的负面影响。如何平衡好稳增长和防风险之间的关系、增强金融服务实体经济的能力、防范化解重大金融风险已成为当务之急。本文运用多元线性回归方法分析政府影子银行债务对实体经济波动影响的阈值效应,并进一步通过构建时变GARCH-CoVaR模型,测度政府影子银行债务与实体经济之间的风险溢出效应。研究结果表明,政府影子银行债务对实体经济波动的影响存在阈值效应;政府影子银行债务与实体经济波动之间存在单向的风险溢出效应。     

地方政府债务风险研究——以地方政府破产为视角

随着地方政府债务规模不断扩大,债务违约风险剧增,政府破产已经不是不可能的事情。通过对我国政府债务存在的主要问题进行分析,同时对比企业破产和政府破产关系,提出解决地方债务的建议对策。     

地方政府债务信息披露优化研究

目前我国政府财政体制限制了地方政府债务信息披露的完整性、及时性等方面,同时更是在一定范围内制约了政府对债务风险的有效监管与合理控制。面对这种情况,研究改进完善我国政府债务信息披露,对地方政府债务风险管理有重大的意义。在详细研究了地方政府债务理论的基础上,结合地方政府以及整个社会经济生活的现状,对地方政府债务信息披露的优化提出了提高信息披露的完整性;提高信息披露的及时性等相应的建议。     

影子银行推动地方政府债务增长了吗

根据地方政府债务理论和中国现实,结合空间经济学的理论启示,本文在对地方政府债务和影子银行规模测算的基础上,采用动态空间杜宾模型实证检验了影子银行对地方政府债务增长的推动作用。研究发现:影子银行发展有力地推动了地方政府债务增长,这种推动作用在西部最大,中部次之,但是东部并不显著;中部以外的各省在地方政府债务增长上均具有较强的惯性;经济增长能够明显地刺激地方政府的举债规模,且存在着因"GDP排位赛"而举债的现象;在中、西部,地方政府债务随着城市化水平的提高而快速增长;除西部之外,地方政府债务与对外贸易水平呈反方向变化,与第二产业比重则同方向变化。     

Brown＇s Blossom in Britain-China

The overall strategic relationship between U.K. and China is ＂better than ever＂, China- Britain relations have maintained good momentum, with increased high-level exchanges and the reinforcement of strategic mutual trust, with more room for growth in the future.     

Challenge and Opportunity Go Hand in Hand——What Global Economic Agitation Brings to the China's Economy?

Domino effects of the global finance agitation As the origin of the subprime crisis,US financial institutions lost USS45 billion last year,accounted for over half of the total US,EU & Japan loss.Since January 15th,Chtigroup released its financial statement of the 4th quarter,showing a net deficit of USS9.83 billion,which marked the hisoric high of its quarterly deficit.     

Sinosteel：Extraordinary Moves in Industry Chess

Among the Fortune 500 firms,more and more images from China emerge out.On the 2008 list,Sinosteel Corporation,a landmark group of China industries quietly squeezes into the candidate line.As the largest steel service ＆ trade enterprise,its sales reached at RMB 111.24 billion,with a year-on-year increase of 83.03 percent,and the profit grew by 180.03 percent.On the Sinosteel 2008 Work Meeting,the president Huang Tianwen uttered,＂In the coming year,we will work for US$20 billion sales,and look forward to getting a position in Fortune 500 firms for ourselves.＂     

Walk Through Unusual Five Years—— An Exhibitor＇s Canton Fair Course

When the 103rd Canton Fair is approaching, an old friend of Canton Fair, Li Ying from Jiangsu prov-ince recollected his past five years＇ experiences to the grand trade meeting. Each year is special, with some unforgettable memories colored by the year.     

Jean-Pierre Duprieu： Willing to Be A Legate of Sino-French Business

Estaing, former French president, Valery Giscard d＇Estaing attended Sino-French Economic Seminar held in Shanghai in early April and said that the world center has shifted from the west to the east with many European and US companies entering into Asia, and China has the ability to play an important role in the world stage. Estaing, naming himself＂French Confucian＂, then said in Chinese that a cook-group includes 10 people in ancient Chinese soldier system and the cook is in charge of cooking for them. And people who belong to the same cook are actually ＂Partners＂.     

China''''s Stock Market Wave

The annual meeting of the World Economy Forum was held in Davos,a little town in Switzerland,on January 23rd to the 27th this year,with the theme"the Power fo Collaborative Innovation",over 2500 celebrates from ture political and cconomic circles of more than 80 countries and challengred logether to talk about the future of the global economy in 2008,A Forum for the problems and challenges that face whole world,some of the keywords which drew attention during the event were:the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis,soaring energy prices,the economic slowdown in the U.S.ermerging economic bodies,authority funds and the general unpredictable nature of the global economy.     

Trade Promotion from Neighborhood

If you are considering to trade with companies in Japan or expanding your .business to Japan, we are ready to help from the very beginning.＂ You will find this greeting at the first sight on the Chinese website of Japan External Trade Organization （JETRO）. JETRO has committed itself in delivering highly efficient and quality services to meet the demand of internal and external customs including Japanese companies, hence winning a good reputation in the international trade arena. In recent years, with its priority in advancing business cooperation in South and East Asia, JETRO has made great achievement in promoting trade between China and Japan. Therefore, China＇s Foreign Trade interviewed Mr. Yoichi Maine, Deputy Director General of JETRO BEIJING.     

Auto Parts Market Potential Coming into Surface

Looking at the increasingly fierce competition in the world auto market. global automobile manufacturing industry, taking Europe, the U.S. and Japan as representatives, is gradually forming a new type of relationship, mutual cooperation between whole vehicle and parts manufacturers. We can clearly see that auto parts manufacturers have become independent from the whole vehicle manufacturing companies, which means that the former structure of auto industry has greatly changed, and a new relationship,     

Domino Effect on Electricity and Coal Prices

In the middle of last December, the key purchase contracts for coal used in power generation in 2008 were signed, reflecting a demand for more than 1.085 billion tons. It is important to note that the country＇s five biggest power producers, China Huaneng Group, China Guodian Corporation, China Power Investment Corporation, China Huadian Corporation and China Datang Corporation, had settled on the prices on their purchase contracts, and they are expected to consume 290 million tons of coal for generating electricity,     

Slimmed May Day Holiday

Last November the State Council of China decided to renew its holiday system by reducing the seven-day May Day holiday to three days and introducing three new one-day public holidays, namely the Qingming Festival, Dragon Boat Festival and Moon Festival. By doing so, the three golden-week holidays that were introduced in 1999, namely the Spring Festival, May Day and National Day, could be better distributed.