Habit Formation, Catching Up with the Joneses, and Economic Growth

Our objective is to investigate how alternative assumptions about preferences affect the process of economic growth. To do this, we analyze a neoclassical growth model under three alternative preference specifications: (i) time separable, (ii) catching up with the Joneses, and (iii) habit formation. Departing from the time separable specification leads to important differences in the dynamic structure, the adjustment path followed by key economic variables, the correlation patterns implied by the time series generated by the model, and the speed of convergence to the new steady state. In the catching up with the Joneses economy the differences arise from a consumption externality, while in the habit formation economy the difference arises from the fact that agents not only smooth consumption but also its rate of change.     

Reconsidering the empirical evidence on the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous protection

Abstract.  The emergence of the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model of endogenous protection as the preëminent model in the political economy of trade literature has been significantly advanced by the finding that its predictions about the cross-industry pattern of protection are broadly consistent with the data. However, in their empirical implementation of the Grossman-Helpman model, researchers have assumed the presence of multiple policy instruments and extraneous political factors. We argue that incorporating these assumptions into the theory significantly changes its predictions about the cross-industry pattern of protection. JEL classification: F1     

Reform of Metropolitan Governments; Minority Perspectives; Metropolitanization and Public Services

America has often been labeled a "throw-away" society due to the large amount of products that could have been reused but are discarded from a typical household on a daily basis. This paper attempts to answer the question of why, when given two consumers with the same income level and socio-economic background, does one consumer choose to replace an older, malfunctioning household product while the other chooses to have the product repaired for further reuse. To help address this question an enhanced replacement model is presented and empirically tested. The replacement model has been around for some time, helping consumers and firms make capital budgeting decisions. This analysis can be extrapolated to the macro level where one economy with a higher societal discount rate might be more strongly characterized as a "throw-away society" than a similar economy with lower societal consumption discount rates.     

A Behavioral Model of Stock Market Investors' Impact on Consumption

This paper offers a theory of investor/consumer behavior in the context of an adaptive relationship. It shows how consumer spending and stock market gains and losses interact in a "gradual diffusion" process. The model offers predictions about likely changes in investor behavior, and the impact on the underlying economy in general and consumption in particular. These predictions are validated empirically. Specifically, the paper finds that investors/consumers gradually smooth their "wealth spending" and accelerate consumption as they become more convinced that their gains are permanent. This is somewhat reminiscent of the "income smoothing" suggested by Friedman [1957]. We present evidence that the consumption wealth spending peaks at approximately 2.5%-3% of the stock market wealth cumulative gain in the previous twelve- to twenty-four-month period, while concurrent effects are negligible. The results also provide a partial explanation for the long cycle of a strong economy in the 1990s, and point out the danger to the economy from a prolonged stock market decline.     

The Socially Optimal Level of Saving in Australia, 1960-61 to 1994-95

In this paper a model is developed which determines the socially optimal level of saving for a small open economy. The model also determines the socially optimal disposition of saving between domestic capital accumulation and overseas asset accumulation. The model is then applied to the Australian economy for the period 1960-61 to 1994-95. For each year of that period socially optimal levels of saving, investment and the current account of the balance of payments are determined. Two main conclusions emerge. Firstly, while Australia under-saved by an average of 1.7 per cent of GDP from 1974-75 to 1994-95, it over-saved by an average of 5.3 per cent of GDP in the earlier period from 1960-61 to 1973-74. Secondly, Australia did not make optimal use of world capital markets to smooth consumption in the period from 1960-61 to 1994-95; although there is less evidence for this since 1984-85, suggesting that deregulation of capital markets may have facilitated the optimal smoothing of consumption.     

The Tragedy of the Commons Revisited

The Malthus–Hardin tragedy of the commons is formulated as a dynamic game between "clans". At each date a member of a clan desires more newborns of her/his type and more current consumption, harvested from the commons. Equilibrium in the dynamic game yields a steady state level of per capita consumption and a steady population level for each clan (births equal deaths). Four outcomes are obtained, depending on the assumptions about the discount rates of members of a clan and about the mode of competition for "large populations" for each clan. Lack of property rights for agricultural land in the commons leads to equilibrium with excessive populations and low per capita consumption.     

Private ownership economies with externalities and existence of competitive equilibria: a differentiable approach

We consider a general equilibrium model of a private ownership economy with consumption and production externalities. Utility functions and production technologies may be affected by the consumption and production activities of all other agents in the economy. We use homotopy techniques to show that the set of competitive equilibria is non-empty and compact. Fixing the externalities, the assumptions on utility functions and production technologies are standard in a differentiable framework. Competitive equilibria are written in terms of first order conditions associated with agents’ behavior and market clearing conditions, following the seminal paper of Smale (J Math Econ 1:1–14, 1974). The work of adapting the homotopy approach to economies with externalities on the production side is non-trivial and it requires some ingenious adjustments, because the production technologies are not required to be convex with respect to the consumption and production activities of all agents.     

Market equilibrium with heterogeneous recursive-utility-maximizing agents

Summary This paper considers a heterogeneous agent Lucas style exchange economy. For a class of recursive utility functions containing the standard additive expected utility functions, I demonstrate that there exist market equilibria characterized by stationary (ergodic) Markov processes for consumption, portfolio holdings, asset prices and the unobserved utilities. No assumptions about market completeness are made, and there are no restrictions on the underlying information filtration.Other contributions of this paper include: (i) an existence and uniqueness theorem of intertemporal utility for the general class of recursive generators; (ii) the optimum principle as well as its corresponding Euler equation derived for the agent's consumption and portfolio choice problem under recursive utility, and (iii) a single-agent equilibrium asset pricing formula which generalizes that of Epstein and Zin (1989).This paper is a part of my PhD dissertation at the University of Toronto. I would like to thank Larry Epstein for his enthusiastic supervision, helpful discussion and valuable comments. Thanks also to Tan Wang and especially Darrell Duffie for valuable comments.     

OPTIMAL CAPITAL TAXES FOR PUBLIC GOOD PROVISION*

This paper constructs a general equilibrium trade model of a small open economy that produces many traded private goods and one non-traded public consumption good. Trade in goods is free, but the country taxes the internationally mobile capital to finance the provision of the public good. Within this framework, the paper identifies the conditions under which the optimal policy on the internationally mobile capital calls for a tax. Under the assumptions that (i) the welfare function is concave with respect to the tax rate, and (ii) the net revenue-maximizing capital tax rate is positive, it is shown that the marginal cost of the public good always understates its social marginal cost.     

Financial Markets and Stochastic Growth

The authors study the effect of financial markets on the investment of a two-good two-country economy with stochastic production in a dynamic framework. Each country produces and invests only one good and, therefore, makes decisions as a central planner in an optimal growth model. Trade between consumers of both countries, however, takes place on competitive (spot or financial) markets. The authors compare the investment–consumption decisions of both "market" models with the benchmark case of an integrated world-equilibrium. In the log-linear case, it is possible to uniquely characterize the state-dependent preferences of consumers that lead to dynamically efficient investment decisions. It is shown that the investment decisions in both "market" models are, in general, inefficient compared with the efficient, or integrated world economy, case.     

INCOME AND THE HAMILTONIAN1

Among the many interpretations of real national income are (i) the return to national wealth and (ii) the Hamiltonian of an appropriately-chosen dynamic model of the economy. These interpretations are sometimes alleged to be equivalent and to constitute the self-evidently ideal definition to which statistics of real national income should conform as closely as possible., The allegation is correct on some very restrictive assumptions about technology and taste. Otherwise, these interpretations are inconsistent, inexpedient as definitions of real national income and significantly at variance with the usage in the national accounts. The return to wealth is unmeasurable with the currently-available data. The Hamiltonian is typically in the wrong units. It is an accurate reflection of neither productive capacity nor welfare in an intertemporal context. It is not well-defined in a tax-distorted economy. It is rarely an indicator of the return to wealth.

A personn's income is "the maximum value he can consume during a week and still be as well off at the end of the week as he was at the beginning"

J. R. Hicks²     

The Impact of Stranded-Cost Risk on Required Rates of Return for Electric Utilities: Theory and an Example

The impact of a proposal to deregulate electric generation on the required rate of return for a utility can be inferred from the proposal's impact on the utility's dividend yield, given some admittedly strong assumptions about risk timing and related matters. We use the case of the April, 1994 California "Blue Book" to demonstrate that even modest changes in the dividend yield can signal large changes in the required rate of return under partial deregulation.     

Let׳s talk it over: Coordination via preplay communication with level-k thinking

This paper reconsiders Farrell׳s (1987) and Rabin׳s (1994) analyses of coordination via preplay communication, focusing on Farrell׳s analysis of Battle of the Sexes. Replacing their equilibrium and rationalizability assumptions with a structural non-equilibrium model based on level-k thinking, I reevaluate Farrell and Rabin׳s assumptions on how players use language and their conclusions on the limits of communication in bringing about coordination. The analysis partly supports their assumptions about how players use language, but suggests that their “agreements” do not reflect a full meeting of the minds. A level-k analysis also yields very different conclusions about the effectiveness of communication.     

Transaction costs and foreign direct investment in developing countries

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been used by a number of developing countries to build a national competitive advantage in a global economy. Most of the literature on FDI in developing countries has focused on low-cost factors in these countries. But in a global economy where low cost factors are available at various locations around the globe, transaction costs related to the assumptions of "bounded rationality" and "opportunism" are becoming increasingly important in FDI decisions. These assumptions have been applied by researchers over the years to explain major changes in the organizational structure of corporations. This paper incorporates the assumptions of bounded rationality and opportunism to discuss factors that a firm considers in its decision to undertake FDI. A statistical analysis was carried out to test the validity of the arguments presented in the paper.     

A cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy

This paper implements a cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy using quarterly data over the period 1964–1994. The dynamic properties of the estimated model are compared to the predictions of a simple textbook macro model. Four long-run equilibrium relationships are tested: (i) consumption–income; (ii) consumption–wealth; (iii) money demand; and (iv) the Fisher equation. The empirical results obtained are generally consistent with the predictions of the textbook model's long-run implications, although level shifts are observed in the consumption/income and the wealth/income ratios. Similarly it is found that there was an increase in the ex post real interest rate, implying a level shift in the Fisher relation, following the Bank of Canada's policy change towards a stable price level target.     

A Characterization of the Dynamical System in a Two-sector Overlapping-generations Model: The Case of Unbounded Growth

This paper characterizes perfect-foresight equilibria in a two-sector overlapping-generations economy for the case of unbounded growth. The analysis demonstrates that gross substitutability in consumption is not sufficient to ensure the determinacy of equilibrium. Unlike Boldrin and Rustichini (1994), indeterminacy of equilibria can arise within the framework of an overlapping-generations model with convex technology. The finite time horizon of agents is the source of such indeterminacy.
JEL Classification Number: 041.     

Constant-returns endogenous growth with pollution control

Pollution control with positive externality from the government is incorporated in an endogenous growth model with AK production function. The result indicate that if consumption and abatement expenditure grows at a constant rate, pollution stock will have smaller growth rate. The growth rate of consumption in a command economy will in general be greater than in a competitive economy. A greater intertemporal elasticity of substitution will result in a lower growth rate only if the household's preference parameter against pollution is sufficiently small. The development strategy of pursuing higher growth rate accompanied by more pollution in the early stage of economic development is economically justifiable. The utility in a wealthier economy is always higher in all stages of development than in a poorer economy, as is the pollution stock, although it may converge in the steady state.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, December 6–10, 1993, Perth, Australia. Constructive comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers of this journal are greatly appreciated, and so is the financial support from the Bureau of Industrial Development in Taiwan.     

Tourism,Consumption and Inequality in Central America

Much research in international political economy (IPE) has been criticised for focussing on large and powerful actors in post-industrial countries, to the neglect of sites, processes and actors in the global South. This article offers a corrective to this bias in two ways: by locating the analysis in two rural Central American communities; and by exploring the social relations of consumption in these communities. In doing this, I challenge assumptions about rural places being excluded from global processes and explore the complexities and contradictions of how such communities are inserted into global circuits of production and consumption. Drawing on extensive qualitative research, the article explores the ways in which capitalist development through tourism has reconstituted the political economy of consumption in terms of habits, attitudes and behaviour in these two communities. Using the community and the household as sites of analysis, I explore the complex ways in which inequalities have been reconfigured through changing relations of consumption. Certain kinds of social hierarchies, in particular traditional gendered power relations within the household, have been challenged. However, other inequalities – such as class, ethnicity and nationality – have been reinforced by these processes.     

Limited countercyclical policies: An exploratory study

In this paper we present a class of approximately optimal contingent policies that we call limited countercyclical policies (LCPs). These policies call for the government to respond to current economic indicators, sometimes vigorously, however these responses are limited in the econometric sense that policy instruments are allowed to take on only a limited set of values. LCPs are appealing because they approximate the optimal policy well while simultaneously incorporating features favored by those who support non-contingent policies.We illustrate the use of an LCP in the context of a simple consumption tax model. We find that the LCP performs well under a wide variety of assumptions about the structure of the economy. We also present some evidence that suggests that an LCP works well in a more general class of models.     

Equilibria in large economies with differentiated commodities and non-ordered preferences

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to provide an equilibrium existence result for economies with a measure space of agents, a finite set of producers and infinitely many differentiated commodities. The approach proposed in this paper, based on the discretization of measurable correspondences, allows us to extend the existence results in Ostroy and Zame (1994) and Podczeck (1997) to economies with a non-trivial production sector and with possibly non-ordered preferences. Moreover, our approach allows for more general consumption sets than the positive cone and following the direction introduced by Podczeck (1998), the uniform substitutability assumptions of Mas-Colell (1975), Jones (1983), and Ostroy and Zame (1994), are replaced by the weaker assumptions of uniform properness.Received: 11 June 2001, Revised: 6 March 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, D51.Thanks to Charalambos D. Aliprantis, Erik J. Balder, Jean-Marc Bonnisseau, Bernard Cornet, Monique Florenzano, Konrad Podczeck, Rabee Tourky, Nicholas C. Yannelis and two anonymous referee for helpful discussions and suggestions.