中国银行业改革中的软预算约束

商业银行软预算约束的表现与事实 软预算约束就是指一个经济组织在遇到财务上的困境时,借助外部组织的救助得以继续生存这样一种经济现象."软预算约束"这一概念揭示了中央计划经济中存在问题的关键因素,被广泛用来解释计划经济中存在的各种现象.而且,商业银行的软预算约束比其它经济组织的软预算约束更为突出.     

社会圈层、关系产权和软预算约束

一、引言由亚诺什·科尔奈于1980年在其著作《短缺经济学》中首先提出的软预算约束概念最初是用来解释社会主义经济中的经济行为及其绩效的。但自德瓦特里庞和马斯金(1995)的开拓性贡献     

社会圈层、关系产权和软预算约束

<正>一、引言由亚诺什·科尔奈于1980年在其著作《短缺经济学》中首先提出的软预算约束概念最初是用来解释社会主义经济中的经济行为及其绩效的。但自德瓦特里庞和马斯金(1995)的开拓性贡献     

国有企业负债与预算软约束

本文分析了作为所有者的政府、最大债权人的国有银行对国有企业预算软约束的状况。试图从这个角度 ,为国有企业高负债型的资本结构提供一个解释。     

金融发展、预算软约束与企业投资

本文利用上市公司的数据,实证检验了在我国转型经济的特殊制度背景下,金融发展促进经济增长的微观传导机制是否存在并发挥作用以及影响这种作用发挥的制度性因素。研究结果发现金融发展水平的提高能够减轻企业的融资约束,降低企业投资对内部现金流的依赖性。但是,预算软约束的存在扭曲了国有企业面临的真实的融资约束,使得其投资对内部现金流的依赖程度要明显低于民营企业,并且这种软约束的存在还减弱了金融发展对国有企业所带来的积极作用,产生了“漏出”效应。本文的启示为:在我国转型经济的特殊制度背景下,如果要真正地减轻企业的融资约束,降低市场交易的成本,促进经济的发展,必须从提高金融发展水平和硬化预算约束同时入手。     

预算软约束视角下地方政府过度负债偏好的制度成因分析

当前地方政府的巨额债务已成为影响我国公共财政安全和社会经济的重大隐患。本文以预算软约束理论为视角,从传统的预算软约束和变异的预算软约束两个方面对我国地方政府过度负债偏好行为进行了分析,以探求其制度性根源。从这一新的视角出发,本文认为上述问题实际上是中央政府、地方政府、辖区内组织等各方各有期待、相互作用的结果,它是经济体制弊端和政府体制弊端混合体,解决问题的重中之重是政府体制改革。     

我国上市公司非效率投资与债务约束探析

本文在梳理国内外已有的理论与实证研究基础之上,系统地分析了企业债务融资能够在一定程度上缓解代理冲突,可以通过企业的债务融资水平来提高投资的效率,即负债的控制约束效应。并根据我国特殊的经济环境,考虑到正处于转轨经济当中的我国上市公司,存在着诸如“预算软约束”等问题,加之我国特殊的财政分权体制和政府官员考评体系等因素的影响,探讨我国上市公司负债是否可以对非效率投资行为起到控制和约束的效果。     

浅析预算软约束对EVA治理过度投资效应的影响

我国国有企业过度投资严重的问题由来已久,为缓解这一问题,国资委在国有企业中推行EVA业绩考核与评价机制.已有文献研究表明EVA业绩考核体系能够有效抑制企业的过度投资现象,但我国仍然处于经济转轨时期,一些特殊的制度因素,比如预算软约束问题会带来融资条件的差异,从而会对微观企业的过度投资产生影响.那么,预算软约束问题是否会影响EVA考核治理过度投资的有效性这一问题就值得受到关注.本文通过分析,认为EVA可以有效缓解"内部人控制"问题引起的预算软约束所产生的过度投资问题,但无法有效缓解政策性负担引起的预算软约束所产生的过度投资问题.     

国有企业融资特征的现实分析及博弈解决

本文以国企融资特征作为分析的逻辑出发点。从一般性的角度，大部分国家国有企业的融资行为都具有预算软约束下的高负债特征。从个别的角度国有企业具有内源融资不足和间接融资依赖的特征。本文对形成这些特征的原因首先作了现实分析，然后研究了有政府与资本市场介入情况下银行与国有企业的博弈关系，从而只有完善资本市场的制度才有可能达到银企双赢的结论。     

预算软约束视角下农村金融风险财政化的思考

本文通过对金融风险的成因和转嫁过程分析,得出了金融风险财政化与预算软约束的内在联系,并从预算软约束的视角对我国农村金融风险财政化的机理进行分析,并提出了解决农村所存在的“三重”预算软约束的思路。     

The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis

This paper evaluates the domestic and international impacts of lowering short-term interest rates and increasing budget spending on several indicators of liquidity, volatility, credit and economic activity. Data from the 2003–2011 period in the United States, the Euro zone and Canada were used to develop two SVAR models for assessing the national effectiveness and the international spillovers of monetary and budgetary policies during the credit freeze crisis. While monetary policies caused a temporary decrease in volatility and increase in liquidity in North American stock markets, the shocks were mainly domestic and ineffective at generating liquidity in the banking sector. In contrast, government spending shocks had a positive impact on credit and consumption, especially in Europe and Canada. Moreover, budgetary policies also had a positive international spillover effect on consumption and credit, especially for smaller economies such as Canada.     

Iraq’s budgetary practices post US invasion: a critical evaluation

ABSTRACT

Although the steep decline in oil prices has inflicted havoc on Iraq’s public finances, critical analyses of the budgetary decisions and processes post-US invasion have uncovered other factors that have impeded Iraq’s economic progress. The authors evaluate Iraq’s budgets for the period 2003 through 2012 from three perspectives: legislative framework, revenue and expenditure, and monitoring. One of their primary findings is that Iraq has been operating at a surplus in excess of $85 billion. This finding contradicts officials who claim that Iraq has been operating at a large deficit. The authors explain why Iraq’s current budgetary practices of preparing, ratifying, executing and monitoring the country’s federal budget is fundamentally deficient, and much work is needed to reform its public financial management (PFM) system to bring it up to best international practices.     

Drivers of tight carbon control in the context of climate change regulation

Our study examines the drivers of tight budgetary control in carbon management in the context of climate change regulation. Using the setting of New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), our study explores how firms manage their carbon performance using carbon-focused budgetary control. Based on a survey data from New Zealand firms, including both those with and those without an ETS compliance obligations, our results suggest that economic and regulatory environmental pressures, the level of proactiveness of emissions management strategy, the level of integration of carbon issues in strategic and operational processes and the perceived importance of carbon issues are the significant drivers of tight carbon-focused budgetary control.     

The effects of uncertainty on the roles of controllers and budgets: an exploratory study

This paper explores how contextual uncertainty and the use of the budgetary system explain cross-sectional variation in the organisational role of business unit controllers. We argue that there are complementarities between the role of the budgetary control system (i.e. coercive vs. enabling) and the role of the controller (i.e. corporate policeman vs. business partner). Thus, we explore both the direct effect of uncertainty on the role of the controller and the indirect effect through the role of the budgetary control system. Using survey data from 134 business unit controllers, we find that uncertainty provides a partial explanation of the variation in the role of budgetary control systems and in the role of controllers. In particular, our data suggest alignment between the coercive (enabling) use of the budgetary control system and the role of controllers acting as corporate policemen (business partners). These findings add to our understanding of the functioning of business unit controllers within their organisational context.     

How Top‐down and Bottom‐up Budgeting Affect Budget Slack and Performance through Social and Economic Exchange

This paper investigates the effects of a top‐down (TD) versus bottom‐up (BU) orientation in different stages of the budgetary target‐setting process on slack and managerial performance. We use social exchange theory to explain the outcomes of these alternative budgetary arrangements, and complement the traditional focus on budgetary participation in target setting with a process‐oriented perspective. We develop hypotheses predicting that TD and BU orientations in the subsequent stages of the budgeting process have different effects on managers’ exchange relationships with the firm, and their behavioural responses. Using survey evidence from German managers across 127 firms we find that a TD orientation in the issuance of guidelines enhances economic exchange and that a BU orientation in the development of the initial budget proposal enhances social exchange, which in turn are associated with reduced slack and higher performance, respectively.     

Environmental turbulence and the functions of budgetary control

While budgetary control is a potentially significant tool when the economic environment is unstable and unpredictable, the analysis of its development demonstrates that its use has dramatically expanded over the time since companies have been able to run forecasts. In order to help them develop budgetary control, companies have implemented strategies that have reduced risks and hence improved their ability to make accurate forecasts. Such strategies have taken many forms and varied from one firm to another. They materialized as various types of agreement, including cartels, through strategies to effect market leadership, or via policies of nationalization. In those companies where the environment was stable and risk limitation was not important, budgetary control could be used for various internal purposes. In this respect, the analysis of the management of companies helps us to identify the purposes for which budgetary control is utilized. It is found that budgetary control allows for greater expansion opportunities and provides the means to strengthen the control of management within major companies. Our observations highlight a contradictory aspect of budgetary control: while it is relevant within an unstable environment, it performs best in an environment which is highly managed.     

An Examination of Budgetary Inefficiency in Education Using Data Envelopment Analysis

The generally weak association between educational spending and performance is a source of ongoing debate. This study examined size, type and source of educational operating expenditures as potential explanators of this weak relationship. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and publicly available input-output performance metrics, budgetary efficiency was measured across school districts. Budgetary inefficiency was found to be significantly and positively associated with (1) budget size (2) administrative overhead and (3) local revenue accountability. These findings offer a partial explanation for the weak relationship traditionally found between educational spending inputs and performance outcomes. The results are suggestive of how school districts might improve their budgetary goal setting, performance auditing and resource allocation practices.     

The advantages of introducing an exchange rate target within the statutes of the European Central Bank

With the help of a Keynesian dynamic macro-economic model in an open economy, this paper studies the possible consequences of introducing an exchange rate target within the statutes of the European Central Bank. It appears that such a target would have only slight implications for the mitigation of demand or external supply shocks. In the case of internal negative supply shocks, this scheme could limit the conflict of goals between the monetary and budgetary authorities and reduce the slowdown in economic activity. Nevertheless, the fact that the central bank tends to limit the fluctuations in its interest rates already has the same implications. On the contrary, in the case of positive shocks on interest rates in the rest of the world, an exchange rate target could have its own advantages. Such a scheme could limit the budgetary deficits and the variations in economic activity triggered by foreign shocks.     

Strengthening Post‐Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise – A New Dataset

Institutions that aim to constrain policy discretion in order to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in fiscal councils – independent watchdogs active in the public debate – has grown rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we present the first cross‐country dataset summarising key characteristics of fiscal councils among International Monetary Fund members. The data document a surge in the number of fiscal councils since the 2008–09 economic and financial crisis, and also illustrate that well‐designed fiscal councils are associated with stronger fiscal performance and better macro‐economic and budgetary forecasts. Key features of effective fiscal councils include operational independence from politics, the provision or public assessment of budgetary forecasts, a strong presence in the public debate and the monitoring of compliance with fiscal policy rules.     

The effect of information asymmetry on negotiated budgets: an empirical investigation

This study examines three issues: (1) the effect of information asymmetry on the budget negotiation process, (2) the effect of information asymmetry on budgetary slack when budgets are set through a negotiation process, and (3) whether subordinates consider superiors imposing a budget following a failed negotiation as being low in procedural justice, which in turn causes low subordinate performance. The results suggest that smaller differences in initial negotiation positions do not indicate a higher likelihood of agreement when initial differences are due to differential information symmetry. Further, information asymmetry affects the relationship between negotiation agreement and budgetary slack. Last, inconsistent with a pure economic perspective, having superiors impose a budget after a failed negotiation causes justice or fairness considerations to demotivate subordinates.