Joint Adjustment of House Prices, Stock Prices and Output Towards Short‐run Equilibrium

A dynamic IS‐LM model including houses and stocks as additional assets will be analysed in this paper. Providing also housing services, a major consumption item for most households, houses create an additional link between the monetary and the real sector, distinct from the traditional wealth effect channel. We analyse the adjustment path of output, house prices and stock prices after policy shocks within a rational expectation setup. Depending crucially on the elasticity of housing services demand, different reaction patterns of asset prices will emerge. The results are contrasted with relevant empirical findings, particularly Lastrapes (Journal of Housing Economics, 11 (2002), pp. 40–74), leading to the identification of plausible elasticity ranges. The analysis sheds new light on the ongoing discussion about demand effects from changing real estate wealth and about determinants of house price fluctuations.     

A Model of Balance‐of‐Payments Crises due to External Shocks: Monetary vs. Fiscal Approaches

This paper develops a model for balance‐of‐payments (BOP) crises triggered by an external shock. Whether an external shock induces a BOP crisis depends crucially on the sequence of policy actions taken by the government's monetary and fiscal authorities. If the fiscal authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the monetary authority, an external shock can lead to a BOP crisis. However, if the monetary authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the fiscal authority, the same shock does not cause a BOP crisis.     

如何实现引进技术的扩散创新

本文通过分析我国技术引进的现状与方式．指出引进技术的关键在于通过消化吸收、扩散创新以实现国家综合经济实力的提高。由此论证了技术扩散的影响因素及实现机制、文章最后介绍日本“引进技术网络”的经验，并提出我国实现引进技术消化吸收、扩散创新的实施对策。     

A Simple Characterization of the Second‐best Two‐part and Block‐rate Tariffs Theory and Applications

The general necessary optimality conditions for second‐best discrete multipart tariffs are rather complex. In this paper, we derive a simplified characterization of these conditions for two‐part tariffs and for block‐rate tariffs for given thresholds of these tariffs. The simplified necessary optimality conditions are equivalent to the necessary conditions for a Ramsey‐optimum for goods with continuously variable individually demanded quantities. We demonstrate that this characterization of second‐best multipart tariffs can be helpful, when applying the usual regulatory mechanisms to these tariffs. In particular, we consider Vogelsang–Finsinger (1979) regulation as well as a particular form of price‐cap regulation which is related to the Laspeyres index of prices.     

On technological objects and the adoption of technological product innovations: rules, routines and the transition from analogue photography to digital imaging

We extend the transformational model of social activity proposedin recent realist social theory by importing into it a theoryof technological objects and technological change. The paperbegins with an account of the transformational model, focusingparticularly on the relationship between routines and socialrules. We then outline a theory of what we call the ‘technicalidentity’ of technological objects, drawing on the notionof collective assignments of agentive functions proposed bythe philosopher John Searle. Finally, we link this theory tothe transformational model and derive three broad categoriesof technological change. The framework as a whole is illustratedwith empirical material drawn from a recent study of the shiftfrom analogue photography to digital imaging in consumer photography.     

Macroeconomic Response to Oil and Food Price Shocks: A Structural VAR Approach to the Indian Economy

The study analyzed the dynamic impact of oil and food price shocks on the macroeconomy of India, using the monthly time series data from April 1994 to May 2016 in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. Being a net food exporter and net oil importer, the economy is found to face deleterious impacts of global oil and food price shocks on its macroeconomic performance. Output responds negatively to oil and food price hikes along with their volatility and positively to the fall in these prices. Inflation responds positively to all the three transformations of shocks with no signs of coming down, highlighting the price downward inflexibility in India. The study could not establish any evidence of negative demand shocks in face of oil and food price volatility. Central bank responds with a contractionary policy stance to negate the influences of external shocks. Forecast error variance decomposition points out the dominance of external shocks in influencing the domestic variables after their own shocks. Finally, the inflation downward rigidity is observed even in the long run.     

The innovation impact of the EU Emission Trading System — Findings of company case studies in the German power sector

This paper provides a detailed analysis of how the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) as the core climate policy instrument of the European Union has impacted innovation. Towards this end, we investigate the impact of the EU ETS on research, development and demonstration (RD&D), adoption, and organizational change. In doing so, we pay particular attention to the relative influences of context factors (policy mix, market factors and public acceptance) and firm characteristics (value chain position, technology portfolio, size and vision). Empirically, our qualitative analysis is based on multiple case studies with 19 power generators, technology providers and project developers in the German power sector which were conducted in 2008/09. We find that the innovation impact of the EU ETS has remained limited so far because of the scheme's initial lack of stringency and predictability and the relatively greater importance of context factors. Additionally, the impact varies significantly across technologies, firms, and innovation dimensions and is most pronounced for RD&D on carbon capture technologies and organizational changes. Our analysis suggests that the EU ETS on its own may not provide sufficient incentives for fundamental changes in corporate innovation activities at a level which ensures political long-term targets can be achieved.     

技术特性与企业技术创新模式选择

为了应对日趋激烈的市场竞争,企业纷纷加大研发投入进行技术创新,以获取或维持竞争优势。而企业技术创新模式的选择作为企业重要的战略决策,对于技术创新的成败有重要影响。企业技术创新模式选择受多种因素的制约,基于此,本文从技术特性和创新模式的分类出发,分析了不同技术特性对企业创新模式选择的不同影响机理,指出对应于不同程度的技术复杂性、技术不确定性以及技术隐含性,企业创新模式的选择会有所差异。此外,本文通过理论分析,提出了相关的命题假设,构建了概念模型,认为技术复杂程度越高,企业采用合作创新的倾向越明显,而模仿创新和自主创新的可能性越小;技术隐含性越高,企业采用合作创新或自主创新的倾向越明显,而模仿创下了的倾向越低;技术不确定性越高,企业越倾向于选择合作创新。     

Russian Railways Reform and the Problem of Non‐discriminatory Access to Infrastructure

Abstract Restructuring of the Russian railways system is well under way. Among the policies just now coming into practice are two that are standard in railways restructuring in other countries: the provision of access to the infrastructure by independent train operating companies, and assurances of non‐discriminatory access terms for such companies. However, 'discrimination'– in the traditional economic sense – is a standard and often welfare‐enhancing pricing strategy for the recovery of fixed costs in a sector, like railways, with declining average costs. If competition regulators are unable to distinguish between discrimination that harms competition and discrimination designed only to recover fixed costs, policy makers in Russia and elsewhere will face a choice between large government subsidies and large welfare losses. In these circumstances, other restructuring models should be considered.     

Knowledge growth, complexity and the returns to R&D

The introduction of a production function of technology embodying laws of returns to research and development (R&D) is now standard practice in growth theory. This paper offers a critical evaluation, in the light of a generalized N–K model, of some recent contributions suggesting foundations for the existence of laws of returns to R&D. It is argued that such contributions fail to analyze the way in which research and development activity in the technological and scientific domains affect the dimension, the hierarchic structure and the complexity of knowledge search spaces. In the attempt at moving some analytical steps in this direction, this paper considers the possibility that modularity effectively counters the rise in complexity which would follow from idea growth and the increasing number of potential interactions between component ideas. It is argued that the force of the modularity argument finds its limits in the face of radical innovations that are general purpose, but entail a deconstruction and reconstruction of the hierarchy of technological interactions. It is also suggested that niche creation and knowledge spillovers elicit the early development and subsequent diffusion of such radical innovations.

Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles

According to intuition and theories of diffusion, consumer preferences develop along with technological change. However, most economic models designed for policy simulation unrealistically assume static preferences. To improve the behavioral realism of an energy–economy policy model, this study investigates the “neighbor effect,” where a new technology becomes more desirable as its adoption becomes more widespread in the market. We measure this effect as a change in aggregated willingness to pay under different levels of technology penetration. Focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), an online survey experiment collected stated preference (SP) data from 535 Canadian and 408 Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions.Revealed preference (RP) data was collected from the same respondents by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases from regions with different degrees of HEV popularity: Canada with 0.17% new market share, and California with 3.0% new market share. We compare choice models estimated from RP data only with three joint SP–RP estimation techniques, each assigning a different weight to the influence of SP and RP data in coefficient estimates. Statistically, models allowing more RP influence outperform SP influenced models. However, results suggest that because the RP data in this study is afflicted by multicollinearity, techniques that allow more SP influence in the beta estimates while maintaining RP data for calibrating vehicle class constraints produce more realistic estimates of willingness to pay. Furthermore, SP influenced coefficient estimates also translate to more realistic behavioral parameters for CIMS, allowing more sensitivity to policy simulations.     

Technological opportunity and the growth of knowledge: A Schumpeterian approach to measurement

A model of endogenous growth, based on Schumpeter's notion of trustified capitalism, is developed and applied to firm-level data for the period 1973–1991. The model relates the market value of a firm to its current profits and to its R&D expenditures. The relationship depends upon the expected rate of knowledge growth, the expected value of an innovation and the elasticity of the R&D production function. Over the sample period, investors expected knowledge to grow at an average rate of 5 percent, a measure which reflects both process innovations and new product discoveries. Elasticities of the R&D production functions are estimated for thirteen industry groups and interpreted as measures of technological opportunity. There is no evidence of secular decline in technological opportunity over the sample period, but there is some evidence of diminishing returns to R&D intensity. Variations in technological opportunity over time are not correlated across industries. In contrast, the expected rates of knowledge growth at the industry level are highly correlated with the aggregate expected rate.     

Trading Behavior and Asset Returns: Evidence from the Interday Serial Correlations of Intraday‐to‐Intraday Daily Returns of Taiwan

This paper sheds light on the importance of trading behavior in the determination of asset prices by examining the interday serial correlations of intraday‐to‐intraday daily returns of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSEC). The TSEC exhibits positive serial correlation in the beginning and the end of the week and negative serial correlation in the middle of the week. The interday serial correlation is not a result of non‐synchronous trading, bid‐ask bounce in transaction price, or price limits. The serial correlation is positively related to trading volume and similar to the pattern in the US. We suggest that trading behavior seems to be an important determinant of asset prices.     

中国能源利用、经济增长演进对生态环境的脉冲响应

能源资源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,能源、环境、经济三者之间相互作用、相辅相成。为厘清能源利用与经济增长对生态环境的复杂影响,文章构建了能源利用、经济增长和生态环境评价指标体系,在对三者的时序演进性分析的基础上,探讨了能源利用、经济增长对生态环境的冲击程度,并进行影响因素分析,主要结论如下:①2001—2016年,能源利用水平在逐步提高,但整体水平较弱。经济增长水平发展趋势良好,但仍然存在地区差距。生态环境各地区差异明显。②空间格局上,能源利用呈现出以点带面的特征,经济增长整体呈现东部大于中西部的特征,生态环境前期南方落后于北方,后期各省市得到平稳发展。③东部地区对生态环境的冲击力度整体呈现出经济增长大于能源发展,且首期至中期最为显著。中部地区对生态环境的冲击力度整体而言经济增长和能源利用大致持平,在首期和中期时冲击较为明显。西部地区对生态环境的冲击力度整体上呈现出能源发展大于经济增长,至中期时最为明显。     

网络经济条件下企业技术创新与组织创新互动研究

在网络经济条件下,技术创新与组织创新是企业提高竞争能力,应对激烈竞争的重要战略。本文分析了以信息技术、互联网技术广泛应用为特征的网络经济对技术创新与组织创新产生的重大影响,认为在网络经济条件下,企业只有实现技术创新与组织创新的互动,才能适应复杂多变的外部环境,更好地利用信患技术实现企业最大化的价值,创造更多的财富。在此基础上,构建了以组织学习为纽带的技术创新与组织创新互动模型。最后,指出今后进一步研究的方向。     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Welfare and growth impacts of innovation policies in a small, open economy; an applied general equilibrium analysis

We explore how innovation incentives in a small, open economy should be designed in order to achieve the highest welfare and growth. The computable general equilibrium model we develop for the purpose allows for research and development (R&D)-driven endogenous technological change embodied in varieties of capital. We study policy alternatives targeted towards R&D, capital varieties formation, and domestic investments in capital varieties. Subsidising domestic investments, thereby excluding stimuli to world market deliveries, generates less R&D, capital formation, economic growth, and welfare than do the other alternatives, reflecting that the domestic market for capital varieties is limited. In spite of breeding stronger economic growth, a higher number of patents, and a higher share of R&D in total production, direct R&D support generates slightly less welfare than subsidising formation of capital varieties. The costs in terms of welfare relates to a lower production within each variety firm, which in presence of mark-up pricing results in efficiency losses.     

德国应对金融危机 推动科技发展

尽管受到了金融危机的影响,在德国联邦政府的高度重视与积极推动下,2009年德国科技发展呈现出：研发投入持续增长、创新能力保持领先、创新创业环境持续改善、科技有力地服务于经济和社会发展的良好态势;并在生物医药、信息技术、纳米技术、海洋技术、电动汽车、可再生能源、环境与节能减排等多个重要技术领域取得了新的进展。     

新疆土地利用经济效益分析与可持续利用研究

本文运用多元统计中的因子分析方法,对新疆的15个地州市土地利用经济效益发展状况进行了分析,得出各地州市土地利用经济效益发展水平,并在可持续发展思想指导下,结合新疆区域经济发展现状,从城市建设和农业开发等两个角度,提出了新疆土地资源可持续利用的对策。     

提升县域特色产业集群创新能力的一种新模式——以沙河玻璃技术研究院为例

县域特色产业技术升级,对加快打造河北经济升级版,促进京津冀区域绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。对于＂整体规模大、单体规模小＂的特色产业集群来说,众多中小企业无力单独建立研发机构,又离不开技术支撑,需要政府帮助建立一个公共研发平台。沙河玻璃技术研究院将两个积极性结合起来,提供了一种可以借鉴的合作机制和运作模式。