Joint Adjustment of House Prices, Stock Prices and Output Towards Short‐run Equilibrium

A dynamic IS‐LM model including houses and stocks as additional assets will be analysed in this paper. Providing also housing services, a major consumption item for most households, houses create an additional link between the monetary and the real sector, distinct from the traditional wealth effect channel. We analyse the adjustment path of output, house prices and stock prices after policy shocks within a rational expectation setup. Depending crucially on the elasticity of housing services demand, different reaction patterns of asset prices will emerge. The results are contrasted with relevant empirical findings, particularly Lastrapes (Journal of Housing Economics, 11 (2002), pp. 40–74), leading to the identification of plausible elasticity ranges. The analysis sheds new light on the ongoing discussion about demand effects from changing real estate wealth and about determinants of house price fluctuations.     

A Model of Balance‐of‐Payments Crises due to External Shocks: Monetary vs. Fiscal Approaches

This paper develops a model for balance‐of‐payments (BOP) crises triggered by an external shock. Whether an external shock induces a BOP crisis depends crucially on the sequence of policy actions taken by the government's monetary and fiscal authorities. If the fiscal authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the monetary authority, an external shock can lead to a BOP crisis. However, if the monetary authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the fiscal authority, the same shock does not cause a BOP crisis.     

On the role of domestic and international financial cyclical factors in driving economic growth

ABSTRACT

We investigate the effects of (domestic and international) financial cyclical factors on the US business cycle over the period 1890–2013 using an augmented stochastic version of the neoclassical growth model. In our setting, financial factors enter as determinants of the total factor productivity cyclical pattern. By means of static and dynamic estimations we find that (i) the inclusion of financial cyclical factors improves the model’s performance; (ii) the sensitivity of economic growth to financial factors is time-varying; (iii) domestic financial factors have a key role in explaining short-run output fluctuations only in the first half of the 20th century; (iv) US business cycle fluctuations have been mainly driven by global financial factors (i.e., financial integration) over the last three decades.

JEL CODES: O40, E32, C32     

如何实现引进技术的扩散创新

本文通过分析我国技术引进的现状与方式．指出引进技术的关键在于通过消化吸收、扩散创新以实现国家综合经济实力的提高。由此论证了技术扩散的影响因素及实现机制、文章最后介绍日本“引进技术网络”的经验，并提出我国实现引进技术消化吸收、扩散创新的实施对策。     

我国普通高校科技创新社会影响力的测度——基于2000—2007年国家科技奖励三大奖项的统计分析

国家科技奖励是我国科学技术的最高奖项,具备较高的评价功能。高校已成为国家科技奖励的主要授奖对象,其科技创新社会影响力可以通过国家科技奖励的成果数量来表征。根据各奖项的权重值、计算公式和数据处理规则,以2000—2007年国家科技奖励三大奖项的获奖项目数为基础,可以测算出高校科技创新社会影响力及其排名。研究结果表明,高水平研究型大学的科技创新社会影响力非常大,在国家的科技创新方面发挥了很重要的作用,是国家创新体系的重要组成部分。     

A Threshold Analysis of the Relationship Between Governance and Growth

Abstract

Quality of governance has been found to be significant in economic growth. We investigate, using a threshold technique, whether the quality of governance matters equally across all levels of economic development. We find that the quality of governance is most significant for only a subset of relatively poor countries, while education is most significant for the poorest countries, and region is most significant for the wealthiest.     

The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks

The intertemporal approach to the balance of payments states that non-stationary flows in the current account will cointegrate or cotrend, unless there are permanent productivity shocks or long-run policy distortions. This paper examines the dynamics of the current account for a small open economy, using data from Sweden. The results show borderline cointegration for the current account. Recursive estimates disclose that there is no stable tendency towards finding cointegration. Cointegration is found for the first part of the sample, but from 1990 the cointegration test performs badly until speculative attacks force Sweden to give up the peg of the krona in 1992. In terms of the intertemporal approach, policy could be creating the imbalance, solved with the depreciation in 1992, after which the external accounts gradually move back to long-run equilibrium. [F31, F32, F41]     

Estimating Consumption Responses to Income Shocks of Different Persistence Using Self‐Reported Income Measures

Models of intertemporal consumption choice posit that consumption reacts more strongly to income shocks with persistent effects than to shocks with temporary effects. This prediction is tested using data from the Estonian Household Budget Surveys for 2002–07. Questions in the survey make it possible to distinguish between two income components of different persistence, using the individual households’ subjective income classification. Estimations confirm that households distinguish income components of different persistence and react to these differently; the consumption response to income shocks with persistent effects is significantly higher than the response to shocks with only temporary effects. Further analysis reveals, however, that consumption also reacts to lagged shocks to temporary income even when the households are not liquidity constrained, suggesting that their behavior is not fully consistent with the standard forward‐looking unconstrained consumption models.     

On technological objects and the adoption of technological product innovations: rules, routines and the transition from analogue photography to digital imaging

We extend the transformational model of social activity proposedin recent realist social theory by importing into it a theoryof technological objects and technological change. The paperbegins with an account of the transformational model, focusingparticularly on the relationship between routines and socialrules. We then outline a theory of what we call the ‘technicalidentity’ of technological objects, drawing on the notionof collective assignments of agentive functions proposed bythe philosopher John Searle. Finally, we link this theory tothe transformational model and derive three broad categoriesof technological change. The framework as a whole is illustratedwith empirical material drawn from a recent study of the shiftfrom analogue photography to digital imaging in consumer photography.     

国家规则构建与社员意识演化的互动周期假说——以农信社制度变迁为例

目前制度变迁研究主要沿着两条主线展开:一是诺斯以意识为核心的非正式规则演化路线,二是林毅夫的国家规则构建路线,两条主线都忽略了意识演化与规则构建之间关系的研究。文章以农信社制度变迁为例,认为集体主义精神的农户抛弃以集体主义为基础的合作金融是一个集体主义悖论,而从农信社这一制度安排的变迁历史,及其所处的制度结构——农村经济体制的变迁历史中演化而来的社员集体主义恐惧意识,给该悖论提供了一个合理的解释。文章对集体主义恐惧意识进行深层分析后,提出国家规则构建与社员意识演化的互动周期假说。最后强调转轨国家在规则构建时,应充分重视社员意识的导向作用,并且提出了一些展望。     

Macroeconomic Response to Oil and Food Price Shocks: A Structural VAR Approach to the Indian Economy

The study analyzed the dynamic impact of oil and food price shocks on the macroeconomy of India, using the monthly time series data from April 1994 to May 2016 in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. Being a net food exporter and net oil importer, the economy is found to face deleterious impacts of global oil and food price shocks on its macroeconomic performance. Output responds negatively to oil and food price hikes along with their volatility and positively to the fall in these prices. Inflation responds positively to all the three transformations of shocks with no signs of coming down, highlighting the price downward inflexibility in India. The study could not establish any evidence of negative demand shocks in face of oil and food price volatility. Central bank responds with a contractionary policy stance to negate the influences of external shocks. Forecast error variance decomposition points out the dominance of external shocks in influencing the domestic variables after their own shocks. Finally, the inflation downward rigidity is observed even in the long run.     

The innovation impact of the EU Emission Trading System — Findings of company case studies in the German power sector

This paper provides a detailed analysis of how the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) as the core climate policy instrument of the European Union has impacted innovation. Towards this end, we investigate the impact of the EU ETS on research, development and demonstration (RD&D), adoption, and organizational change. In doing so, we pay particular attention to the relative influences of context factors (policy mix, market factors and public acceptance) and firm characteristics (value chain position, technology portfolio, size and vision). Empirically, our qualitative analysis is based on multiple case studies with 19 power generators, technology providers and project developers in the German power sector which were conducted in 2008/09. We find that the innovation impact of the EU ETS has remained limited so far because of the scheme's initial lack of stringency and predictability and the relatively greater importance of context factors. Additionally, the impact varies significantly across technologies, firms, and innovation dimensions and is most pronounced for RD&D on carbon capture technologies and organizational changes. Our analysis suggests that the EU ETS on its own may not provide sufficient incentives for fundamental changes in corporate innovation activities at a level which ensures political long-term targets can be achieved.     

Adverse Welfare Shocks and Pro‐Environmental Behavior: Evidence from the Global Economic Crisis

This paper examines the effects of the 2008–9 global economic crisis on people's pro‐environmental behavior and willingness to pay for climate change mitigation. We hypothesize that the crisis has affected pro‐environmental behaviors through tightening of budget constraints and relaxation of time constraints. Using data from a large representative survey Life in Transition II, conducted in 35 European and Central Asian countries in 2010, we find that people adversely affected by the crisis are more likely to act in an environmentally‐friendly way, but less likely to be willing to pay for climate change mitigation. Our findings confirm the importance of time and budget constraints for undertaking pro‐environmental action, and highlight a potentially positive role of adverse, external welfare shocks in shaping pro‐environmental behavior.     

技术特性与企业技术创新模式选择

为了应对日趋激烈的市场竞争,企业纷纷加大研发投入进行技术创新,以获取或维持竞争优势。而企业技术创新模式的选择作为企业重要的战略决策,对于技术创新的成败有重要影响。企业技术创新模式选择受多种因素的制约,基于此,本文从技术特性和创新模式的分类出发,分析了不同技术特性对企业创新模式选择的不同影响机理,指出对应于不同程度的技术复杂性、技术不确定性以及技术隐含性,企业创新模式的选择会有所差异。此外,本文通过理论分析,提出了相关的命题假设,构建了概念模型,认为技术复杂程度越高,企业采用合作创新的倾向越明显,而模仿创新和自主创新的可能性越小;技术隐含性越高,企业采用合作创新或自主创新的倾向越明显,而模仿创下了的倾向越低;技术不确定性越高,企业越倾向于选择合作创新。     

技术需求与智能制造技术创新——数字经济的导向性赋能机制

智能制造技术创新是持续推动制造业高质量发展的关键动力。为探究制造业技术需求、数字经济赋能对非市场与市场导向下智能制造技术创新的作用机制,基于技术创新需求拉动理论,引入数字经济赋能构建投入-产出两阶段模型。分析发现,当政府研发补贴较高时,劳动替代需求与智能制造技术创新投入呈倒U型相关,对智能制造研发投入产生挤出效应;以效率提升为主的技术市场需求通过影响企业智能制造技术创新投入,间接推动技术创新产出。有调节的中介模型检验表明,数字经济赋能正向调节市场导向的智能制造技术创新产出,但对非市场导向的技术创新不具赋能作用。在充分利用数字经济发展优势的同时,应依托需求拉动机制开发更多需求侧政策工具,进一步激发智能制造技术创新。     

Russian Railways Reform and the Problem of Non‐discriminatory Access to Infrastructure

Abstract Restructuring of the Russian railways system is well under way. Among the policies just now coming into practice are two that are standard in railways restructuring in other countries: the provision of access to the infrastructure by independent train operating companies, and assurances of non‐discriminatory access terms for such companies. However, 'discrimination'– in the traditional economic sense – is a standard and often welfare‐enhancing pricing strategy for the recovery of fixed costs in a sector, like railways, with declining average costs. If competition regulators are unable to distinguish between discrimination that harms competition and discrimination designed only to recover fixed costs, policy makers in Russia and elsewhere will face a choice between large government subsidies and large welfare losses. In these circumstances, other restructuring models should be considered.     

基于科技进步的湖北省循环经济发展研究

科技进步是湖北省循环型工农业体系建设的加速器和助推器。必须依靠科技进步,优化湖北循环型服务业体系,推进高新技术产业化,完善资源回收体系建设,使区域循环经济发展强劲。但在当前,湖北循环经济的发展面临一定的障碍,需要加强基础科学研究,提高循环经济型技术创新溢出水平,加快循环经济技术创新体系建设,构建多样化跨国技术创新联盟;建立科学公正的评价指标体系,加强循环经济科技人才队伍建设,完善循环经济科技投入机制,依托科技进步推动循环经济发展。     

Knowledge growth, complexity and the returns to R&D

The introduction of a production function of technology embodying laws of returns to research and development (R&D) is now standard practice in growth theory. This paper offers a critical evaluation, in the light of a generalized N–K model, of some recent contributions suggesting foundations for the existence of laws of returns to R&D. It is argued that such contributions fail to analyze the way in which research and development activity in the technological and scientific domains affect the dimension, the hierarchic structure and the complexity of knowledge search spaces. In the attempt at moving some analytical steps in this direction, this paper considers the possibility that modularity effectively counters the rise in complexity which would follow from idea growth and the increasing number of potential interactions between component ideas. It is argued that the force of the modularity argument finds its limits in the face of radical innovations that are general purpose, but entail a deconstruction and reconstruction of the hierarchy of technological interactions. It is also suggested that niche creation and knowledge spillovers elicit the early development and subsequent diffusion of such radical innovations.

Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles

According to intuition and theories of diffusion, consumer preferences develop along with technological change. However, most economic models designed for policy simulation unrealistically assume static preferences. To improve the behavioral realism of an energy–economy policy model, this study investigates the “neighbor effect,” where a new technology becomes more desirable as its adoption becomes more widespread in the market. We measure this effect as a change in aggregated willingness to pay under different levels of technology penetration. Focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), an online survey experiment collected stated preference (SP) data from 535 Canadian and 408 Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions.Revealed preference (RP) data was collected from the same respondents by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases from regions with different degrees of HEV popularity: Canada with 0.17% new market share, and California with 3.0% new market share. We compare choice models estimated from RP data only with three joint SP–RP estimation techniques, each assigning a different weight to the influence of SP and RP data in coefficient estimates. Statistically, models allowing more RP influence outperform SP influenced models. However, results suggest that because the RP data in this study is afflicted by multicollinearity, techniques that allow more SP influence in the beta estimates while maintaining RP data for calibrating vehicle class constraints produce more realistic estimates of willingness to pay. Furthermore, SP influenced coefficient estimates also translate to more realistic behavioral parameters for CIMS, allowing more sensitivity to policy simulations.     

Technological opportunity and the growth of knowledge: A Schumpeterian approach to measurement

A model of endogenous growth, based on Schumpeter's notion of trustified capitalism, is developed and applied to firm-level data for the period 1973–1991. The model relates the market value of a firm to its current profits and to its R&D expenditures. The relationship depends upon the expected rate of knowledge growth, the expected value of an innovation and the elasticity of the R&D production function. Over the sample period, investors expected knowledge to grow at an average rate of 5 percent, a measure which reflects both process innovations and new product discoveries. Elasticities of the R&D production functions are estimated for thirteen industry groups and interpreted as measures of technological opportunity. There is no evidence of secular decline in technological opportunity over the sample period, but there is some evidence of diminishing returns to R&D intensity. Variations in technological opportunity over time are not correlated across industries. In contrast, the expected rates of knowledge growth at the industry level are highly correlated with the aggregate expected rate.