东道国投资便利化建设对中国企业对外直接投资二元边际的影响

在全球多边投资体制缺失和双边投资协定无序发展的背景下,便利化建设能否有效驱动海外投资增长已引发学术界的广泛关注。然而,当前有关东道国投资便利化与母国对外直接投资的研究仅集中于一元规模分析,尚未展开二元边际的结构性讨论。为此,文章基于中国企业对外直接投资追踪数据,详细考察了东道国便利化建设与中国企业对外直接投资二元边际之间的关系。结果表明:第一,东道国便利化建设显著促进了中国对外投资扩展边际的增长,但对集约边际的作用效果并不明显,且克服内生性问题之后,上述研究结论仍然成立。第二,异质性分析表明,投资对经济周期十分敏感,世界经济的复苏和发展有助于中国资本"走出去"。同时,与能源行业相比,便利化建设更有利于推动运输和房地产行业投资扩展边际的提高。另外,东道国发展阶段的差异和中国投资政策导向的差别也将产生异质化作用,非低收入经济体和政策导向国推进便利化建设对投资扩展边际增长的驱动效应更加明显。第三,进一步的渠道分析表明,便捷的营商环境、透明的政策环境与健全的金融服务是提高投资扩展边际的关键所在。文章的研究对于从东道国便利化发展角度理解企业对外直接投资的结构特征具有一定的参考价值,同时揭示了便利化建设将在推动全球新一轮的投资浪潮中扮演更为重要的角色。     

中国对发展中国家对外直接投资研究——基于制度距离的解释

传统理论认为东道国恶劣的制度环境会降低外国直接投资的经营绩效,进而不利于东道国吸引外国直接投资。但近年来,中国对外直接投资在发展中国家增长迅速,而后者往往制度环境较为恶劣,制度风险比较突出。本文基于制度距离的视角,从理论和实证上对中国向中低收入发展中国家对外投资进行检验。结果表明:制度距离与我国对发展中国家对外直接投资呈反向关系,并在此基础上为我国企业"走出去"提供了政策建议。     

双边贸易成本抑制了中国制造业企业的对外直接投资吗?

文章首先在异质性企业理论框架的基础上分析了双边贸易成本对母国企业进入东道国市场决策的作用机制,继而利用《中国工业企业数据库》和《境外投资企业(机构)名录》匹配合并后的微观制造业企业数据,运用条件Logit模型实证检验了2000~2007年间中国与全球100个东道国(地区)的双边贸易成本对中国企业对外直接投资的影响。基于整体和子样本的回归结果均表明,中国与东道国(地区)双边贸易成本的上升显著降低了中国企业对外直接投资的几率。上述发现意味着"就近集中权衡"理论关于贸易成本与对外直接投资正相关的预期对于中国的制造业企业而言并不成立,其背后蕴含的政策涵义是,降低中国与东道国(地区)间的双边贸易成本应成为进一步推动中国企业对外直接投资的题中应有之义。     

中国对外直接投资行为影响因素的实证分析

目前对于外商直接投资的研究多集中在影响中国吸引外商直接投资的因素以及外商直接投资对中国经济产生的影响方面,本文则从中国的对外直接投资出发,分析中国这种对外投资行为受到哪些因素的影响。我们仍然将关注的重点放在投资环境上,通过实证分析发现,中国的对外直接投资行为主要受到东道国经济增长、东道国平均工资、两国间地理距离、文化差异、法律环境以及政策限制等因素的影响。     

行业增长性、技术投资博弈与跨国公司直接投资技术外溢

跨国公司直接投资对发展中东道国技术发展的影响如何?大多数研究停留在总体正负外溢效应的争论上,很少有学者关注东道国的行业增长性和企业技术投资对跨国公司直接投资技术外溢的影响。本文引入行业增长性,拓展Wang与Blomstrom的国际技术转移模型,构建了跨国公司技术转移与东道国企业技术学习的博弈框架,重点研究行业增长性对企业技术行为与技术外溢的影响,更全面地探讨跨国公司直接投资技术外溢机制。     

关于国际投资中政治风险的防范

<正> 目前,对国际投资进行风险分析,往往偏重于经济风险而忽略了政治风险;对经济风险采取了必要的防范措施,而对政治风险却疏于防范,从而导致许多国际投资项目惨遭失败。所谓政治风险,主要是指东道国或国外目标市场国家现行社会政治状况及国家政策和法律体系发展的不确定性。它包括两个方面:一是外国投资者对东道国未来政治环境变化的不可知性;二是东道国社会和政府影响外国投资者利益的未来行为的不确定性。这些不确定性因素主要来自东道国政策和法律的重大变化、内部动乱、战争、贸易保护主义、政府干预加剧、国家间关系的重大变化等。这些政治现象往往难以预料,其发生都可能使国际投资者面临不同程度的政治风险,给投资带来严重的后果。如企业资产被没收充公;企业丧失经营权;被迫     

东道国制度视角下我国对外直接投资的决定因素

本文以我国上市公司海外并购为例,检验东道国的制度环境对我国企业对外直接投资的影响。实证结果表明:东道国法制化程度促进了我国企业的对外直接投资;但东道国民主化程度阻碍了我国企业的对外直接投资。根据我国企业对外直接投资的特点,本文将总体样本分成四个子样本。研究进一步发现,东道国法制化程度对我国企业对外直接投资的促进作用具有普遍使用性,但东道国民主化程度阻碍了我国民营企业以及流入自然资源行业的对外直接投资。     

直接投资理论和政策的新变化

近年来,在直接投资的理论和政策方面出现了许多新的变化,对国际直接投资格局和各国的外资政策产生了明显的影响。这些变化对传统的直接投资理论如国际比较成本理论、产品生命周期理论和相互依赖理论形成冲击和挑战。直接投资对东道国还会产生副作用,在制订外资政策时必须认真对待。     

东道国不确定性与中国ODI二元边际:兼论营商环境的调节效应

关于不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响,以往研究往往忽略了对外直接投资的结构特征。文章将东道国不确定性因素纳入异质性企业模型,分析了不确定性对中国ODI二元边际的影响机制,并运用2005~2017年中国企业对外直接投资数据,实证检验了东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响。研究结果表明:首先,东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资的扩展边际具有显著的抑制作用,但是对集约边际的影响不显著;其次,不确定性对ODI扩展边际的抑制作用在金融危机后和在东道国不确定性大于中国的国家更明显;最后,引入营商环境因素研究发现,良好的营商环境对于东道国不确定性具有一定的正向调节效应。     

外资并购及其相关法律

跨国投资是"使投资者为获得一定经济效益而将其资本投入国外"的经济活动。其中,跨国直接投资是指"投资者在海外直接经营企业,并对企业经营管理有较大控制权"。跨国直接投资有两种方式:一种是新设投资或称为绿地投资;另一种是外资并购。外资并购是外国投资者通过取得东道国企业的全部或部分资产或股份、对东道国企业的经营管理实施     

Optimal Exit Costs of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines the optimal policy on exit costs of foreign direct investment for a host country considering the impact of varying income level and host country’s risk aversion against volatile FDI flows. Based on a dynamic model about the impact of the exit costs on FDI inflows and capital formation, we demonstrate that a host country should determine the exit cost considering two counterbalancing factors, that is, facilitating higher FDI inflows and reducing volatility of FDI inflows. When a host country is less vulnerable to volatility with inelastic risk aversion against FDI volatility, it is optimal for the host country with a negative income shock to take a more aggressive approach to induce FDI inflows by lowering exit costs. However, if the host country is more vulnerable to volatility with elastic risk aversion, the host country is advised to take a conservative approach by increasing exit costs to reduce FDI volatility. These findings, supported by the OECD data on 42 countries’ exits costs, implicate that developing countries are recommended to lower exit costs to induce higher FDI inflows when they are not highly vulnerable to volatility shocks.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA: FIFTY YEARS OF DISCOURSE

The topic of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been prominent in assessments of economic development in Indonesia during the past 50 years. In this article I review Indonesia's FDI record in a historical perspective; the current urge to control FDI inflows and the need to augment domestic savings and facilitate technology transfers are not at all new in Indonesia. I draw in particular on the discourse on FDI in this journal, the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, giving special attention to contributions by this journal to the international literature on FDI and its impact. The article demonstrates that the relation between FDI and economic growth has been less straightforward in Indonesia than elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Although FDI has grown in a restrictive investment climate, on occasion it has failed to do so despite more liberal conditions. This may be attributed to the sustained role of natural resources in determining Indonesia's attractiveness as a host country of FDI.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Provide Desirable Development Finance？ The Case of China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often considered as a cost-effective and risk-reducing source for development finance. This paper,however,shows that FDI finance often entails underestimated risks and costs. FDI might react sensitively to business cycles and might not be as "permanent" as conventionally believed. FDI might also accelerate other forms of capital flow in times of financial difficulties and,hence,destabilize financial order. In addition to the risks,compensations to FDI and the high import-dependency of FDI-related trade lead to a considerable drain on the balance of payments. Moreover,the reliance on foreign capital for development finance is equivalent to building a Ponzi financing scheme and,therefore,is unsustainable. Given the fact that FDI financing is risky and costly and China does not lack savings,it is suggested in the present paper that China's efforts in attracting FDI should not aim at external capital provisioning.     

东道国区位优势与中国对外直接投资的相关性研究——基于动态面板数据广义矩估计分析

本文使用2003～2007年中国与74个东道国的数据,采用GMM方法进行动态面板数据分析,考察了对东道国区位优势与中国对外直接投资之间的相关性。经验研究发现:东道国市场规模和资源禀赋是决定现阶段中国对外直接投资的重要因素,密切的贸易联系也会显著地促进中国的投资,然而东道国良好的制度建设却会产生抑制作用,此外东道国完善的基础设施和较高的技术水平也不会显著地引起中国对外直接投资的变化。     

Exporting versus Direct Investment under Local Sourcing

This paper examines a setting where foreign direct investment (FDI) shifts demand for an intermediate good from the source to the host country. A domestic and a foreign firm choose between exports or FDI, always sourcing the intermediate locally. We show that by increasing the price of the intermediate, outward FDI can act as a cost-raising strategy for a firm and that attracting FDI can raise host country welfare. Two-way FDI is the equilibrium when the countries have similar market sizes. However, such FDI reduces global welfare relative to two-way exporting since it eliminates indirect competition between suppliers. JEL no. F12, F13, F23, L13     

Foreign Direct Investment and Inflation

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are able to shift investments between home and host countries to minimize the negative effects of changes in the macroeconomic environment. This article formalizes a model that allows studying this investment‐smoothing behavior of MNEs facing inflation taxes in both the home and the host country. The MNE is allowed to invest in two economies, home and host, and to finance its foreign direct investment (FDI) either through domestic or foreign sources. The investment smoothing by the MNE is studied for cases of both vertical and horizontal FDI. The results suggest FDI is used as a hedging tool, mitigating the effects of inflation taxes even if there are no formal hedging mechanisms. The investment‐smoothing reaction of MNEs depends on the reason for investment, the financing sources of FDI, and the substitutability between factors of production. Finally, this investment‐smoothing possibility (FDI) reduces the real negative effects of inflation.     

Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia

This study aims to analyze how sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South and East Asian economies respond to changes in the business cycles of the host countries, as measured by their output gaps. We focus on 15 economies during the period 1980–2011 and examine inflows of FDI in extractive industries, manufacturing and services in addition to aggregate FDI by using a dynamic panel Blundell–Bond GMM methodology. We find evidence of countercyclical behavior of services FDI and acyclical behavior of both extractive industries FDI and manufacturing FDI. The coutercyclical behavior of services FDI in South and East Asia has important policy implications.     

Human Capital and FDI Inflows to Developing Countries: New Empirical Evidence

Despite the dramatic increase in total foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries in the last few years, the bulk of the inflows has been directed to only a limited number of countries. It has been argued that developing countries might enhance their attractiveness as locations for FDI by pursuing policies that raise the level of local skills and build up human resource capabilities. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence in the literature in support of this recommendation for a large sample of developing countries is scant. This paper evaluates this argument in the light of the evolution in the structural characteristics of FDI and empirically tests the hypothesis that the level of human capital in host countries may affect the geographical distribution of FDI. The empirical findings are: (a) human capital is a statistically significant determinant of FDI inflows; (b) human capital is one of the most important determinants; and (c) its importance has become increasingly greater through time.     

吸收能力和贸易政策对FDI技术溢出的影响分析——基于中国工业部门面板数据的实证研究

FDI的技术溢出不是自发产生的,溢出效应受到东道国国内的政策和经济环境的影响,其中两个重要因素是东道国的吸收能力和贸易政策。本文利用工业部门2005—2008年的数据,实证分析了FDI溢出效应。在考虑了前向联系和后向联系中的直接影响和间接影响情况下,检验了FDI横向溢出和纵向溢出,分析了吸收能力和贸易政策对FDI溢出效应的影响。我国的横向溢出和后向溢出不显著,前向溢出显著;吸收能力和贸易政策对外商在华投资的溢出效应产生不利影响。

Abstract：

FDI spillovers are assumed not to be automatic but are hypothesized as being a function of the domestic policies and economic environment in host countries.Two determinants have been generally recognized,the absorptive capability and the trade policy.This paper examines FDI spillovers using the industrial data during the period 2005—2008.Taking the direct and indi-rect effect into forward and backward linkages,both horizontal and vertical FDI spillovers are examined,and the effect of the absorptive capability and the trade policy on FDI spillovers are analyzed.The results show that the spillovers through horizontal spillovers and backward link-ages are insignificant,while positive spillovers through forward linkages are statistically significant.Absorptive capability and trade policy produce unfavorable effects on FDI spillovers.     

基于偏好差异的民营企业跨国投资战略博弈分析

跨国投资从一定意义上讲是跨国公司与东道国之间的博弈。我国民营企业“走出去”战略的实施，不可避免地要和东道国政府进行反复地博弈。我国民营企业跨国投资的战略决策正是与东道国博弈后形成的均衡。文章探讨跨国投资战略决策中因与东道国博弈存在“政策”和“环境”两类不同偏好并利用我国民营企业跨国投资实证来讨论两种分类的存在，最后提出我国民营企业跨国投资战略决策建议。