Waiting for Signaling Quality

When a durable good of uncertain quality is introduced to the market, some consumers strategically delay their buying until the next period, with the hope of learning the unknown quality. I analyze the monopolist's pricing and waiting strategies when consumers have strategic delay incentives. I show when the monopolist offers introductory low prices in pooling equilibria. I also find two types of separating equilibria: one where the high‐type monopolist signals its quality by choosing a different price than the low‐type monopolist in the first period and another where the high‐type monopolist announces the product in the first period and waits to sell only in the second period. Waiting creates a credible cost for signaling; hence, the monopolist uses it as a signaling device.     

Stock Return Anomalies from Ending-Digit Effects Around the World

Ending-digit effects describe the presence of abnormal returns when the ending digits of stock prices are one penny below or above the zero-ending round number. Using data from 68 countries, I find abnormal positive returns when stock prices surpass the zero-ending threshold (i.e. when the ending digit is 1) but abnormal negative returns when prices drop below the same threshold (i.e. when the ending digit is 9). My findings survive alternative robustness checks. This ending-digit effect is more prominent in countries with more active innovation and better governance.     

Industrial Diversification and Its Impact on Productivity Growth in Taiwan's Electronics Industry*

The present study attempts to link plant‐level production diversification to productivity growth in Taiwan's electronics industry. An account of the role of the Taiwanese government over the last 2 decades leading to the take‐off of its electronics industry is briefly discussed. We reviewed production activities of more than 20 000 Taiwanese electronics plants during the period 1992–1999. In an inter‐industry comparison, we find that at the four‐digit and seven‐digit industry levels, Taiwanese electronics production plants exhibit a significantly higher degree of product diversification than plants in the manufacturing sector as a whole. Econometric results positively identify diversification as a source of significant productivity growth across all electronics plants classified in the related industry groups.     

Good Girl,Bad Boy? Evidence Consistent with Collusion in Professional Tennis

We identify professional tennis matches where one player competes for extraordinarily high payoffs while their opposition does not. Players “on the bubble” of direct qualification to upcoming Grand Slam events face substantially higher stakes than opponents, which presents an opportunity for collusion. Our findings produce evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis of unethical behavior taking place on the men's tour, as bubble players are 5.1 percentage points more likely to beat better ranked opponents than in comparable nonbubble matches. However, no such evidence emerges when analyzing women's tennis. We find additional support for the hypothesis of match‐fixing activities on the men's tour from analyzing the occurrence of tie‐breaks and the fact that our results become stronger once monetary incentives were increased after the 2013 season. Finally, the betting market does not predict this phenomenon, further confirming our suspicion of irregular activities.     

Party Politics,Governors, and Economic Policy

In this article, we evaluate the role of elections in governors' state tax policy making. Does it matter for state taxes whether the governor is a Democrat or Republican and whether she is eligible for re‐election or faces a binding term limit? Using a Regression Discontinuity Design and a panel of U.S. states, we find that the manner in which governors of different parties implement different tax policies turns crucially on the incumbent's eligibility for re‐election. Re‐electable Democratic governors increase income taxes relative to similarly situated Republicans, yielding divergence between party policy positions. However, governors facing a binding term limit exhibit the reverse policy difference, resulting in a movement of policy back together.     

Do Mutual Fund Investors Care About Auditor Quality?

We study the influence of perceived auditor quality on investment decisions by bond mutual fund investors. Audits of bond mutual funds require significant auditor expertise. Fund managers estimate daily the fair market values of holdings that are often opaque and illiquid. Managers can use their discretion to manipulate their fund's performance results. While it is known that investment flows into funds that report good past performance, little evidence exists about whether investors' confidence in the reliability of fund financial reports is influenced by auditor quality. Using hand‐collected data from SEC filings, we find that the positive association between reported performance and investment flows is stronger for funds with auditors who are industry specialists and are longer‐tenured, as well as for funds that pay higher audit fees. We do not find that auditor office size strengthens the association. We also find that the presence of industry‐specialist auditors, long‐tenured auditors, and higher audit fees lead to additional disclosure in the form of emphasis‐of‐matter. This study contributes to the streams of research investigating perceived audit quality, fund investment decisions, and auditing for financial services.     

Pressure and the ability to randomize decision-making: The case of the pickoff play in Major League Baseball

In mixed strategy games, the ability to randomize decisions is a critical strategic necessity, yet studies show that such rational behavior is sometimes elusive. This paper examines mixed strategy play in a natural setting, by looking at a pitcher’s decision to throw the ball to home plate or to throw it to first base in a pickoff play. In the absence of significant pressure, we find that pitchers can effectively randomize their sequence of choices to remain unpredictable, as mixed strategy Nash equilibriums require. However, in the face of pressure, some pitchers are less able to randomize their choices. Our paper is the first empirical study in the English language literature to find that decision makers are unable to randomize their strategic decisions when they face an increased cognitive load due to pressure.

     

Determinants of Self-employment in China： Evidence from Cross-regional Data

This paper presents and tests a series of sources of regional variations in self‐employment rate in China in the 2000s, and illustrates that the stage of economic development is a major explanation for the variations of self‐employment rate across regions over the past decade. The negative relationship between the stage of economic development and self‐employment rate identified in the paper indicates that China has entered the process of fast industrialization, and self‐employment is playing a diminishing role in economic growth and employment. We also find a substitution effect between self‐employment and private enterprises. While both are important components of China's private sector, private enterprises are becoming an increasingly important source of China's economic growth and employment. Furthermore, our findings also imply that when job opportunities are limited, self‐employment in China is likely a forced choice of disadvantaged people who are not qualified for wage jobs.     

DOES MOTHER'S EDUCATION MATTER IN CHILD'S HEALTH? EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA1

Using the 1993 South Africa Integrated Household Survey, this paper studies the effect that mother's education through the knowledge channel has on children's health using height for age Z‐scores as health measure. Under a two‐stage least square methodology we find that an increase in 4 years on mother's education (approximately 1 standard deviation) will lead to an increase of 0.6 standard deviations on her child's height for age Z‐score. We also find, as the medical literature suggests, support for the hypothesis that mother's education is more important for children older than 24 months of age.     

Trust among the Avatars: A Virtual World Experiment,with and without Textual and Visual Cues

We invited “residents” of a virtual world who vary in real‐world age and occupation to play a trust game with stakes comparable to “in‐world” wages. In different treatments, the lab wall was adorned with an emotively suggestive photograph, a suggestive text was added to the instructions, or both a photo and text were added. We find high levels of trust and reciprocity that appear still higher for non‐student and older subjects. Variation of results by treatment suggests that both photographic and textual cues influenced the level of trust but not that of trustworthiness.     

Are Reviewers' Judgements Influenced by Memo Structure and Conclusions Documented in Audit Workpapers?*

This paper investigates how the initial conclusion reached by the preparer of audit workpapers and the manner with which the preparer structures the associated evidence can influence the reviewer's judgement in an audit setting. We conducted an experiment in which auditors reviewed the work of a preparer who had concluded that the account of the client's major customer was either collectible or not collectible. The preparer's memo was structured in a neutral manner or stylized to emphasize (de‐emphasize) evidence consistent (inconsistent) with the preparer's conclusion. Results showed that reviewers placed less reliance on the conclusions reached by the preparer when the preparer's memo was stylized than when the memo was structured in a neutral manner. These results suggest that reviewers are sensitive to stylization attempts by preparers. Implications of the paper are discussed.     

Corruption Via Media Capture: The Effect of Competition

In this article, we compare a government's optimal choice of whether to engage in corruption by capturing the media outlets through bribery in two alternative media market structures: monopoly versus duopoly. While there is an extra bribe claimant in a media duopoly relative to monopoly, it may also be harder for each firm to individually expose corruption when the rival co‐opts with the government. We find that when the latter effect is stronger than the former, media is captured at lower bribes under duopoly relative to monopoly and in such instances media competition facilitates rather than hindering corruption.     

Intra‐Industry Information Transfers and the Post‐Earnings Announcement Drift

This study examines the role of intra‐industry information transfers in the analyst forecast‐based post‐earnings announcement drift. I find that subsequent same‐industry‐peer earnings announcements influence a firm's post‐earnings announcement drift if these subsequent announcements confirm the firm's initial earnings surprise and the firm's industry exhibits ex ante positive (common effect) intra‐industry information transfers. The results suggest that underreaction to industry‐specific information contributes to analyst forecast‐based post‐earnings announcement drift.     

Trade Effects of US Antidumping Actions against China*

Using data on US imports, classified at the 10‐digit Harmonized System commodity level, we study the effects of all antidumping investigations initiated by the USA against China between 1998 and 2006. We find that antidumping actions cause a reduction in the volume and value of imports from China as well as an increase in the price of those goods in the US market. Critically, however, we find that these effects are short‐lived and dissipate approximately 2 years after the antidumping decision. Furthermore, antidumping actions against China prompt a substitution effect as they increase US imports from other countries. In general, our results cast doubt on the effectiveness of antidumping actions against China as mechanisms for protecting US producers.     

Screening for Managerial Objectives

The debate between agency and stewardship theorists on the nature of managerial objectives in itself implies that a principal may be uninformed about managers' objectives. This article introduces a model of adverse selection in managerial types where classically opportunistic agents are contrasted with stewards who exhibit intrinsic preferences for the organization's success and experience betrayal (crowding out) when they are incentivized as if they were agents. The analysis characterizes stewardship inefficiencies not previously identified by stewardship theorists. This inefficiency is minimized via a menu of contracts that emphasizes the fixed component of pay for stewards. Moreover, steward‐run firms are more successful than agent‐run firms.     

Go West Young Man: Self‐Selection and Endogenous Property Rights

If, as Hume argues, property is a self‐referring custom of a group of people, then property rights depend on how that group forms and orders itself. In this article we investigate how people construct a convention for property in an experiment in which groups of self‐selected individuals can migrate between three geographically separate regions. To test a hypothesis of Demsetz's, we vary across two treatments the external benefits of migrating. We find that self‐selection has a powerful effect on establishing conventions of property and begetting increases in wealth through exchange and specialization. We also find support for the Demsetz hypothesis.     

The effect of spouses' relative education on household time allocation

Does spouses' relative education explain their household's distribution of labor? This paper analyzes the effect of spouses' education on time allocated to housework and paid work. To address endogeneity concerns, I exploit changes in spouses' relative education due to remarriage to identify its effects on their time allocation. I find that when a husband marries a wife with a higher relative education than their previous spouse, his share of time on housework increases while his share of time on paid work decreases. In contrast, I find nonsignificant results when a wife remarries a more educated husband than her previous one. I also find that changes in the spouse's education reduce the probability of a spouse staying at home. These findings show that relative human capital plays a role in household labor distribution and motivates a more gender-neutral division of labor within households due to a more evenly distributed time allocation.     

The Effects of Model Specification on Foreign Direct Investment Models: An Application of Count Data Models

Previous studies have drawn a theoretical and empirical connection between foreign direct investment (FDI) and exchange rates using continuous measures of FDI. However, FDI data are often in discrete count form. I take a representative study of the FDI/exchange rate relationship by Jose M. Campa (1993), and I analyze the sensitivity of the results to specification of the dependent variable. Whereas Campa uses a Tobit specification, I use a count data specification to model counts of FDI occurrences. Using data on FDI in the United States from 1982 to 1993, controlling for the traditional determinants of FDI, I find that the results are sensitive across specifications. Significance levels and the magnitude of the coefficients change when going from a continuous Tobit specification to a zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) model designed for count data. Formal statistical testing finds that the ZIP specification likely models the data most properly. Thus, I indicate that misspecification bias from modeling discrete data with continuous distributions is important.     

Contribution Limits and Transparency in a Campaign Finance Experiment

We experimentally compare electoral outcomes when donor contribution limits are varied. The effect of contribution limits is studied under three levels of transparency: one where donors' preferences and donations are unobserved by the candidate and public; one where they are observed by the candidate but not the public; and one where they are observed by all. We find that a combination of stricter contribution limits and full transparency is most successful at limiting donors' influence on policy choice. We also find that stricter contribution limits improve social welfare in some treatments. We further find that the partial and no anonymity settings lead to “centrist bias,” whereby implemented policies, on average, are more centrist than the candidate's preferences in most treatments.     

Food, nutrition, and substitution in the late nineteenth century

Economic historians hypothesize that households in the nineteenth century substituted away from carbohydrates and fiber and towards protein and fat as their incomes rose. Anthropometric historians assert that there was increased nutrient intake without any nutritional substitution. I test these hypotheses using the 1888 Cost of Living Survey. I fail to reject the hypothesis that the income elasticity of fiber is greater than or equal to the income elasticities of protein, fat, or sugar—contrary to the nutritional substitution posited by economic historians. A food modified Engel curve reveals that the shares of carbohydrates, fat, and sugar in the diet vary with household income, but the shares of protein and fiber do not. I do find, however, that the share of protein from animal sources increases with household income. I also find that the diets of late nineteenth century industrial workers were surprisingly balanced by modern standards.